亚太房地产：什 么类型的实体零售在亚太地区是最危险的.docx

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1、EquitiesAsiaReal EstateGrant McCasker, CFA Analyst +61-2-9324 3626Michael Lim Analyst +65-6495 5902John Lam, CFA Analyst +852-2971 6358Toshihiko Okino Analyst +81-3-5208 6197Kazufumi Takeuchi Analyst +81-3-5208 6269James Druce, CFA Analyst +61-2-9324 2849Edwin Chen, CFA Analyst +86-105-832 8186Jerem

2、y Kincaid Analyst +64-9-913 4890Global Research 5 March 2019UBS Evidence Lab inside: APAC Real Estate Bricks & Clicks: 14,175 consumers, 14 countries. What type of physical retail is most at risk in APAC?Understanding the consumer - what do 14,175 consumers in 14 countries say?Concerns around the gr

3、owth of eCommerce have weighed on the performance of the retail focused REITs/real estate companies globally but less so in Asia. The UBS Evidence Lab 2nd survey of consumers across APAC highlights 1) as online penetration rates increase, shopping frequency at physical retail will vary materially ac

4、ross retail type and region presenting risks & opportunities; 2) landlords need to constantly invest in order to maintain & increase foot traffic but income is impacted in the short term as proactive tenant remixing increases vacancy; 3) Amazon awareness post launches in Singapore & Australia is sig

5、nificant and has increased. New evidence from the survey showed that while high street retail is expected to have the largest negative impact from growth in online, frequency of visits has actually increased (in particular in Hong Kong). Shoppers appear to be frequenting the malls less in Australia

6、and this warrants a more cautious outlook when the reversing wealth effect is likely to impact spending.What was new in the survey that will impact landlords?1) Australia & NZ saw a decline in shopping frequency at Malls (unexpected, risk to VCX “high potential assets55 and SGP retail portfolio) and

7、 department stores (an opportunity in the event Myer hands back 20 stores in 2019). We continue to see substantial foot traffic increases in Vietnam (Buy on Vincom Retail). 2) Consumers continue to frequent the mall to dine (+12%, in particular Sing/HK supporting CMT/Link) and would like to see more

8、 dining options as a key reason to visit. In Australia it is not as high on the agenda and increased use of delivery services is likely to limit future demand. Unique to Australia/NZ is consumer preference for more car parking options which generate low capex returns, another reason why we expect a

9、decline in capex returns in Australia.All eyes on Australian retail transactions in 2019The plethora of retail assets on the market (Stockland, Vicinity, potentially Scentre together with private equity & unlisted wholesale funds) will remain the key focus in Australia in a period of anaemic rental

10、growth, reversing wealth effect and longer term structural concerns. We dont anticipate the disposal queue to clear in 2019 therefore the NAV discount will remain.Key PicksPreferred retail exposures: Link REIT, Vincom Retail, Capitamall Commercial Trust, Japan Retail Fund (high foot traffic, urban r

11、etail). Least preferred: Australian malls in particular Vicinity & Stockland despite NAV discounts.Figure 1: Retail Landlords Pricing MetricsSource: UBS EstimatesPriced at close:ImpliedPremium (Discount) to NAVP/BP/EDividend yld26-Feb-19RatingPricePT Upside Total return2018/19 NAV estNAV as at FY19e

12、 FY19e FY19e FY20eLink REITBuy88.498.111.0% 14.0%85.703.2%| Mar 20191.033.7x3.0%3.3%Japan Retail FundBuy225,200240,0006.6%10.5%206,8498.9%Feb 20191.428.3x3.9%3.9%Kenedix RetailBuy261,200258,000-1.2%3.6%245,9986.2%Mar 20191.121.8x4.8%4.8%CMTBuy2.462.40-2.4%2.3%2.0023.0%Dec 20181.220.4x4.7%5.0%Frasers

13、 CentrepointBuy2.312.508.2%13.9%2.243.2% ISep 20181.118.6x5.6%5.8%ScentreBuy3.864.188.3%14.1%4.39-12.1%Dec 20190.814.9x5.8%6.0%Vicinity CentresNeutral2.442.7211.5%18.0%2.71-10.0%Jun 20190.813.5x6.6%6.4%This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Australia Ltd. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED

14、DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 40. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a singl

15、e factor in making their investment decision.In Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand the results are more likely to reflect the country since internet penetration is high and income levels between survey samples and population are close;In Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and

16、 Malaysia where internet penetration is relatively lower and the income of survey samples is 1.6-3x times higherthan the population, the results here tend to be biased towards high income group; China is a bit special, although our survey is conducted in tier 1-4 cities the overall income level of t

17、he surveyed respondents is more similar with that of Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities, which is 4-5x higher than the average income level in urban areas.Figure 14: Online share of spend for all categories included in our survey, adjusted for internet usageFigure 15: Change relative to the prior survey done

18、in 2017South KoreaTaiwanThailandJapan SingaporeAPACChina Malaysia AustraliaNew Zealand Hong KongIndia Philippines IndonesiaSouth KoreaTaiwanThailandJapan SingaporeAPACChina Malaysia AustraliaNew Zealand Hong KongIndia Philippines IndonesiaThailand TaiwanNew ZealandMalaysiaSingaporeSouth Korea Austra

19、liaHong KongPhilippinesChinaAPACIndonesia IndiaJapan-10.0% -5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0% 15.0% 20.0%Source: UBS Evidence Lab. All respondents, APAC; straight average across categoriesSource: UBS Evidence Lab. All respondents, APACFigure 16: Online share of spend for all categories: change relative to prior sur

20、veyDeltashoesapplianceFresh foodgoodsskincareaccessoriesproducts(excluding toys) supplementsAvgAPAC-2.6%-2.1%1.8%3.3%-3.2%1.8%-3.0%3.2%5.9%0.6%China-4.4%-4.3%2.5%4.5%0.0%2.9%-4.0%6.2%6.9%1.2%Hong Kong7.1%-0.2%3.5%8.2%3.4%2.2%-0.6%-6.5%3.1%2.2%Taiwan12.6%4.3%3.3%22.2%-4.6%14.2%4.3%18.9%15.7%10.1%Japa

21、n-3.7%5.8%-3.8%-5.8%-16.0%-8.7%-5.0%-14.7%5.4%-5.2%South Korea3.6%-0.4%2.6%-1.9%-9.0%6.7%5.5%9.5%14.6%3.5%Singapore-1.7%6.8%4.9%2.6%8.4%1.1%5.4%13.4%-5.4%3.9%Australia1.1%7.0%5.4%2.0%10.2%-0.8%0.9%-3.9%-1.7%2.2%New Zealand1.1%0.1%-0.5%-3.3%9.9%8.0%3.8%5.3%26.5%5.7%India2.9%0.2%0.3%-0.8%1.0%-2.3%-0.4

22、%-2.5%-2.8%-0.5%Indonesia2.9%-1.9%3.6%-0.3%-1.1%-5.1%-0.1%-0.5%0.3%-0.3%Philippines2.3%-0.1%0.7%-0.9%6.5%-0.8%1.5%2.5%0.4%1.3%Thailand13.4%11.2%6.4%10.3%11.5%22.9%10.5%20.6%28.5%15.0%Malaysia6.1%-6.5%4.5%1.1%13.5%-3.5%3.8%17.2%5.0%4.6%Apparel and Electronics and Groceries - Groceries - Dry Cosmetics

23、 and Jewelry and Personal care Baby products NutritionalSource: UBS Evidence Lab. All respondents, APACIn comparison to other datasets:Australia: Online today makes up c9% of total retail sales, having grown an average 98bp y/y over the last 6months (MAT). The acceleration (ex-Nov) was a function of

24、: New entrants / events: Amazon launched in late 2017 and one-day events such as Cyber Monday, Click Frenzy and Black Friday have driven online engagement;Improved local offering: Website usability, range and price; and, Payment options: Notably Buy Now Pay Later (See UBS report). We estimate these

25、options account for c71% of incremental non-food retailer growth in 1H19, up from c67% in FY18.Figure 17: Australian online sales performanceFigure 18: Australian online penetration change y/y (bp)10% 9%8% 7%6% 5%10% 9%8% 7%6% 5%4 32%1%0%Xp Xp Xp Xp 7 2 2 9 2d，o ，o 505050% 33221150o V :0N Z.Lo)n0N 9

26、 axz 91.富 92L 9VON gvAew gTq e L 寸VON wo)n4 寸工寸TqL COL&ON coaq co工EW coTq L eTAON NLXCUW Nvq LL.Online retail sales % totalOnlinesalesgrowthy/y%(RHS)Amazon AU Launches8二。0 8A S 8a4 8L,_n 8Tun 8L拿 8VO.V 8m 8Tq L 8VUC 二0d F0N na 2ds ZLm rum Z.VABW R-dv Un 二q LL.二，9 Ta 9VON 920 9A S 9 a0 1nMo0s cus=9 c

27、r u=uoPercentage of online sales through domestic retailersSource: UBS Research estimatesFigure 22: Online domestic retailers share of retail sales6 6 5 aje.cs s- 0 一1s EoaOnline retai I sales penetration Online Retail Sales Growth YoY%Source: BNZ, UBS Research estimatesChina: Chinese eCommerce has

28、grown from 0% to 24% since 2009 with a CAGR of 79% (2009-18). However, when looking at online penetration by category, theres a large range of penetration rates. Fresh food is among those with the lowest online share (c2%) but with a high growth rate in recent years thanks to new retail transformati

29、on. Apparel & shoes enjoy one of the highest online penetration rates (c30%), but may start to plateau given the changing consumer behaviours.Looking to the future: where do consumers plan to shop?In particular, we have focused on how the availability of online shopping will affect shopping habits.A

30、s expected, the availability of online shopping has seen a reduction in shopping at malls. However, we continue to expect to see a more severe reduction in spending at high street retail. Supermarkets on the other hand remain largely immune across the region (except Australia, Japan and China).0%9 o

31、(U O)O)cc(USg2.咨一=Js Shop less frecftfently10%20%30%40%50%60%100%90%80%70%Figure 23: Has the availability of online shopping affected Figure 24: Impact of online: shopping more vs less at how often you shop at shopping malls/centreshopping centres/malls: Japan outlook improves, Chinaworsenscupcu9cu

32、一 胃N-25NgM - pugBUJLnow th如 in the pastNo impact on how often you shop Shop more frequently now than in the pastSource: UBS Evidence Lab. All respondents, APACSource: UBS Evidence Lab. All respondents, APACFigure 25: Has the availability of online shopping affected how often you shop at supermarkets

33、Impact of online: shopping more vs less at supermarkets: increases expected across APAC (ex China & Japan) but marginally less relative to prior survey100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%PhilippinesTaiwanM 一 sMS uedc ucoM-cul X工 S3 豆01Z(UN三Eeua wsae-bw pue=l 8dd-=ud 3suopu-VietnamSK Thailand Malaysia T

34、otal IndonesiaHKNZSing India AustraliaJapan China Shop less frequently now than in the past No impact on how often you shopShop more frequently now than in the past-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%More vs less18 More vs less ,17Source: UBS Evidence Lab. All respondents, APACSource: UBS Evidence Lab. All respo

35、ndents, APACFigure 27: Has the availability of online shopping affected how often you shop at high street retailWSAe-en pue=21 s 一J&=wd cu一 S uopu- wpu- pucuro Z 芸 n wslsnq alodefs Ealo* fnos U2.C UBMrol 6uo 上 CTCOX ss _忠。1 Shop less frequently now than in the past No impact on how often you shopSho

36、p more frequently now than in the pastFigure 28: Impact of online: shopping more vs less at high street retail: Across APAC availability to online to impact high street retail more than any other formSource: UBS Evidence Lab. All respondents, APACSource: UBS Evidence Lab. All respondents, APACAre de

37、partment stores a sunset industry?Certainly the pressures on the department stores and decline in traffic volumes is a global phenomenon and was occurring even without eCommerce, given the changes in specialty stores and brands which have become more exciting and a destination in their own right.The

38、 UBS Evidence Lab survey supports this view, showing that the availability of online shopping has reduced consumers* frequency in shopping in Department stores, particular for Japan, Taiwan and China.In Japan, an article in the Sangyo Times revealed that the number of stores at the three main GMS co

39、mpanies showed a net fall of 5% from 571 in FY16 to 542 in FY17 and the companies plan a further reduction of 3% to 527 by the end of FY18.In Australia, the challenges facing department stores as online penetration rate increases together with growth in high end luxury and international competitors

40、is too much space, labour costs and long term leases. Myer intends to cut its store base to 55 over time (currently 62) and hand back 20 floors of space by 2019 via landlord negotiations & sub-leasing. We expect to get an update in the coming months on Myers floor space strategy. This is likely to be an opportunity for landlords to bring in alternate users on generally unproductive space.Figure 29: Has the availability of online shopping affected how often you shop at department storesImpact of online: shopping more vs less at department stores100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%