全球-博 彩业-菲律宾博 彩业：强劲的利润和增长潜力.docx

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1、31 January 2019GlobalEQUITIESSource: Pagcor, company data, Macquarie Research, January 2019Mkt CapPriceTSRTargetTickerRec(US$mn)(P)(%)(P)BLOOMOP2,21210.5645.415.25RWMN1,6195.402.55.50Philippine gaming recommendations, and target pricesSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2019; prices as

2、 of 29 January 20192019E 2019E 2019E 2019E 2019EEV/ EBITDAPER EPS chP/BROETicker(x)(x)(%)(x)(%)BLOOM8.914.47.72.720.3RWM21.730.64.91.75.8sector11.618.27.12.114.2Philippine gaming valuationsSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2019; prices as of 29 January 2018InsideStrong profit and gro

3、wth potential2Key charts3Robust growth underpinned by two key drivers4Fundamentally attractive from a regional perspective10Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)13Travellers International Hotel Group (RWM PM)27AnalystsMacquarie Capital Securities (Philippines) Inc.Gilbert Lopez +63 2 857 0892Philippines gam

4、ingStrong profit and growth potentialKey pointsWe initiate coverage on the Philippine gaming sector with a positive view, as tourism growth and rising affluence should drive growth.The sectors superior growth is evident with the highest CAGR of 18% for EBITDA and 29% for net profit.Our top sector pi

5、ck is BLOOM, which we rate Outperform with a P15.25 PT.A positive view of the Philippines gaming sectorWe initiate with coverage with a positive view on the Philippine gaming sector. Our top pick is Bloomberry (BLOOM), on which we have an Outperform recommendation. We also initiate on Travellers (RW

6、M) at Neutral. The sector offers the countrys best growth and profitability metrics for 2019E.Driven by twin drivers of tourism and rising affluenceWe forecast the sector will deliver the best growth within the Philippines (EBITDA CAGR of 18%), thanks to robust growth in tourism and upside provided

7、by the domestic markets rising affluence. VIP revenues should benefit from tourism growth, driven especially by China. The Duterte administrations friendly stance towards China should underpin demand from overseas. Meanwhile, mass revenues should continue to be buoyant due to rising domestic affluen

8、ce. The latter has been boosted by the following: 1) income tax reductions; 2) rising incomes due to remittances and outsourcing; and 3) tangible infrastructure gains (eg, NAIAX improving accessibility).A growth standout for both country and overseasThe sector stands out as having the best growth an

9、d returns profile within the Philippines. This is seen in the 18% EBITDA CAGR and an even stronger 29% net profit CAGR while also generating a decent 14% ROE. By comparison, our Philippines coverage universe is on an EBITDA CAGR of only 10% and a net profit CAGR of only 9%. This strong growth profil

10、e is likewise a standout even against overseas comparables. Finally given the growth prospects the sector is reasonably valued with a PER of 18x and EV/EBITDA of 12x for 2019E.Underlying demand weakness the key riskThe biggest risk for the gaming sector would be a sudden weakening of overall demand

11、from both overseas and domestic players. However, we see this scenario as rather unlikely, given the state of the Philippine economy, measures being undertaken to promote tourism, the countrys strong point. Another risk would be the entry of strong competitors. Thus far we have seen interest from ne

12、w entrants, but very few globally respected operators. For this reason, the incumbent gaming companies stand to benefit with their respective buoyant operations.Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc.Chad Beynon +1 212 231 2634 Edward Engel, CFA +1 415 762 5083Please refer to page 37 for important disclosures

13、and analyst certification, or on our website Fundamentally attractive from a regional perspectiveForecasting strong growth for the listed sectorWe are forecasting the Philippine gaming sector to generate strong underlying growth, with EBITDA growth of 16% in 2018E and 19% in 2019E. This is coming fr

14、om 12% top-line growth for 2018E and 11% for 2019E. Longer-term growth shows a mild improvement as the sector continues to strengthen balance sheets with much of the large capital expenditure requirements out of the way. On a net income basis, growth forecast of 120% in 2018E moves to 15% in 2019E.F

15、ig 23 Philippine gaming sector - P&LSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 201920162017201820192020Net sales78,90088,66599,121110,150121,678Net sales y-o-y growth (%)24.5%12.4%11.8%11.1%10.5%Cost of sales-28,561-32,999-38,183-44,619-49,128Gross profit50,33955,66560,93865,53172,550Gross pr

16、ofit (%)63.8%62.8%61.5%59.5%59.6%Selling, general & administrative-21,266-21,737-26,147-27,312-29,368as a % of sales (%)27.0%24.5%26.4%24.8%24.1%Operating expense-8,099-12,641-10,090-8,836-10,400Earnings Before Interest, Taxes,20,97421,28824,70129,38332,783Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA)EBITD

17、A margin (%)26.6%24.0%24.9%26.7%26.9%EBITDA y-o-y growth (%)163.4%1.5%16.0%19.0%11.6%Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT)10,08710,71614,76619,10122,661EBIT margin (%)12.8%12.1%14.9%17.3%18.6%EBIT growth (%)478.0%6.2%37.8%29.4%18.6%Profit before taxes (PBT)4,3035,21610,70513,17217,146PBT margin

18、(%)5.5%5.9%10.8%12.0%14.1%Taxes on income-1,806-489-300-1,148-1,491Tax rate (%)42.0%9.4%2.8%8.7%8.7%Profit after taxes (PAT)2,4974,72610,40512,02415,655The sector should be able to not only sustain growth, but to also strengthen its balance sheet. We forecast gearing levels to be coming off as hefty

19、 capital expenditure requirements taper off.Fig 24 Philippine gaming - keyratios20162017201820192020Profitability ratiosGross Margin (%)63.8%62.8%61.5%59.5%59.6%EBITDA Margin (%)26.6%24.0%24.9%26.7%26.9%EBIT Margin (%)12.8%12.1%14.9%17.3%18.6%PBT Margin (%)5.5%5.9%10.8%12.0%14.1%PAT Margin (%)3.2%5.

20、3%10.5%10.9%12.9%Net Profit Margin (%)3.2%5.4%10.5%10.9%12.9%Recurring EBITDA Margin (%)26.6%24.0%24.9%26.7%26.9%Recurring EBIT Margin (%)12.8%12.1%14.9%17.3%18.6%Underlying Net profit margin (%)3.2%5.4%10.5%10.9%12.9%ROE (%)3.5%6.2%15.5%14.2%15.0%ROA (%)1.4%2.5%4.7%4.7%5.9%Asset efficiency and liqu

21、idity ratiosQuick ratio0.91.01.31.51.7Current ratio1.01.11.41.61.8Days receivables38.642.734.635.735.3Days payables128.5121.3108.0104.1102.9Days inventory held8.78.67.88.18.0Cash conversion cycle-81.2-70.1-65.6-60.3-59.5Working capital cycle days-56.0-40.6-50.8-47.7-47.4Sales / PPE0.60.70.60.60.7Sal

22、es/Total Asset0.40.50.40.40.4Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2019Fig 24 Philippine gaming - keyratios20162017201820192020Debt coverage/Credit metrics Total debt position85,46885,937129,141123,776113,622Net debt position47,54147,09079,93761,98340,256Gearing ratio (net debt to equity

23、)0.60.60.90.60.3Net debt to EBITDA2.32.23.22.11.2Net debt to recurring EBITDA2.32.23.22.11.2Total debt/equity1.21.11.41.20.9Total debt/assets0.50.40.50.50.4EBIT/ Net interest expenses1.61.92.32.93.9EBITDA/ Net interest expenses3.33.83.84.55.7Fastest growth in the PhilippinesDespite the deceleration

24、in growth, the EPS growth of the gaming sector already rates as the best within the Philippines on a three-year basis. It should have a net profit CAGR of 29%, the best among all other sectors. Note that the average for the Philippine composite index (PCOMP) would only be 9% net profit CAGR. Even on

25、 an EBITDA CAGR at 18%, it would also be the best within the Philippines, which only averages 10%.Fig 25 EBITDA CAGRFig 26 Net profit CAGR13.612.64.69.6 Telecoms Utilities PhilippinesSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2019 Conglomerates Telecoms Utilities PhilippinesSource: Company da

26、ta, Macquarie Research, January 2019ROE and valuations at par with the marketProfitability of the gaming companies would not be the best in the country at 14.2% but would nonetheless be within the PCOMP average. Sectors with higher ROE than gaming would be consumer, telecoms, and utilities. The gami

27、ng sectors 12x EV/EBITDA and 18x PER are broadly in line with the PCOMP average. It is worth pointing out that such multiples for the sector are made especially high due to the very lofty multiples of Travellers (RWM).Fig 27 Sector EV/EBITDA and PERSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2

28、019Fig 28 Philippine gaming valuationsSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2019ShMktprice TP capPE (x)StockPPUS$m 2018 2019 2020EPS growth (%) 2018 2019 2020PBV (x) 2018 2019 2020ROE (%) 2018 2019 2020EV/EBITDA (x) 2018 2019 2020BLOOM (OP)10.5615.252,21215.514.411.9RWM (N)5.45.51,61932.

29、130.622.8Sector19.518.214.623.97.721.2954.34.934.461.37.125.03.22.72.21.81.71.62.42.11.922.620.320.65.85.87.415.514.215.010.48.98.034.621.718.614.511.68.3Regional gaming valuationsRelative to others in the region, BLOOMS valuations would generally be lower with an 8.9x EV/EBITDA and 14.4x PER for 20

30、19E. Meanwhile, RWM is expensive at 21.7x EV/EBITDA and 30.6x PER for 2019E. The disparity in valuations is quite glaring and thus helps in formulating our investment picks.Fig 29 Regional Gaming ValuationSource: Bloomberg, Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2019, data for NR stocks is Bloomb

31、erg consensusTickerRatingsPrice 1/28/2019Mkt Cap US$mEV US$mPriceTargetEV/EBITDADisc. FCF YieldP/EEBITDA Margins EBITDA Growth2019202020192020201920202019202020192020LVSOP$56.2644,08352,214$6610.4x10.0x9.1%9.7%17.2x16.0x37.0%37.2%-1.8%4.8%WYNNN$118.1712,85023,176$12112.0x10.6x9.7%12.0%18.8x15.3x28.0

32、%29.0%0.6%13.2%MGMOP$28.4615,00433,827$3510.2x9.4x11.0%12.5%20.9x16.0x25.5%26.7%19.4%8.9%CZROP$8.757,30613,669$137.9x7.5x12.4%13.4%nmnm28.5%28.9%11.3%4.3%10.1x9.4x10.6%11.9%18.9x15.8x29.8%30.4%7.4%7.8%1928-HKNRHK$36.7037,79941,62213.28x12.08x17.18x15.48x34.2%34.6%8.2%10.0%27-HKNRHK$50.8028,02928,143

33、12.73x11.43x15.76x14.03x24.3%24.4%2.6%11.4%1128-HKNRHK$18.2212,06915,22411.25X10.65x14.66x13.45x25.8%26.0%0.7%5.7%MLCONR$21.2410,40313,4829.86x8.96x21.94x17.43x25.0%25.9%7.7%10.1%2282-HKNRHK$14.026,7908,43112.78x11.38x21.79x14.88x23.4%24.0%22.9%12.3%880-HKNRHK$7.915,7094,9619.88x6.91x18.92x16.1x9.0%

34、10.1%2.9%42.9%11.7x10.4x18.8x16.2x23.6%24.2%8.5%16.7%We overweight the sector, with BLOOM rated OutperformWith the sectors attractive growth, above-average ROE, and reasonable multiples on a Philippines context, we have a positive view on it. Our top Outperform pick within the sector would be Bloomb

35、erry (BLOOM). We have a PT of P15.25 on BLOOM, giving it a 45% TSR. Meanwhile we rate Travellers (RWM) as Neutral with a PT of P5.50.31 January 2019GlobalEQUITIESBLOOM Gross Gaming Revenue (PhPm)45,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,000 10,000.C,cxx)2013100%90%Valuation-DCFP15.2512-month targetP15.

36、25Upside/Downside%+44.412-month TSR%+45.4Volatility IndexHighGIGS sectorConsumer ServicesMarket capPm116,252Market capUS$m2,212Free float%3530-day avg turnoverUS$m1.4Number shares on issuem11,009Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Jan 2019BLOOM PMOutperformPrice (at 08:53, 29 Jan 2019 GMT)P10.

37、56Year end 31 Dec2017A2018E2019E2020ERevenuem36,65142,83849,77554,948EBITm7,92810,99412,83914,397EBIT growth%39.138.716.812.1Reported profitm6,0717,5488,1469,877EPS repP0.550.680.730.89EPS rep growth%156.723.97.721.2PER repX19.215.514.411.9Total DPSP0.000.100.100.10Total div yield%0.00.90.90.9ROA%11

38、.311.410.611.7ROE%22.322.620.320.6EV/EBITDAX12.610.48.98.0Net debt/equity%33.5109.171.740.3P/BVX3.83.22.72.2Investment fundamentalsSource: FactSet, Macquarie Research, January 2019; (all fig in PHP unless noted)Macquarie Governance and Risk Score (MGRS)On our proprietary Governance and Risk Score Bl

39、oomberry Resorts scores in the top quartile of our current universe coverage.Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM)Solid combination of growth and returnsKey pointsWe initiate coverage of BLOOM with an Outperform rating and a P15.25 PT that implies a 45% TSR. The company has a very strong mix of growth and p

40、rofitability. At 16% EBITDA CAGR and 22% ROE, this rates among the best in the Philippines. BLOOM rates highly on MGRS with a top quartile ratingInitiate at OutperformWe initiate coverage of Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM) at Outperform. Our price target of P15.25 offers a 45% TSR and is based on a DCF m

41、ethodology.Rates among Philippiness best in growth and returns; FCF should expand from 2019EWe forecast BLOOM to deliver one of the best combinations of growth and returns in the Philippines. An EBITDA CAGR of 16% in 2018-20E coupled with ROE of 20% in 2019E rates it among the highest, within the en

42、tire PCOMP. With hefty capex out of the way, we forecast free cash flow (FCF) to turn positive from 2019E and grow thereafter. The company also rates highly on our proprietary Macquarie Governance and Risk (MGRS), with a top quartile average score. This in our view supports the likelihood of executi

43、on remaining strong.Supported by solid sector backdropAs the largest gaming company in the Philippines, BLOOM benefits from an impressive sector backdrop. Gaming companies benefit from strong tourism growth, which helps drive VIP revenue, as well as robust domestic demand driven by rising wealth and

44、 more spending power. Also helping is an attractive regulatory environment: relatively straightforward and set in stone until 2033. The result is a sector generating better growth and profitability in the Philippine context, with an EBITDA CAGR of 18% and a 14% ROE for 2019E.Valuations attractive, but some risks to considerBLOOM currentl