谁将赢得亿万富翁的太空竞赛.docx

《谁将赢得亿万富翁的太空竞赛.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《谁将赢得亿万富翁的太空竞赛.docx（47页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、17 March 2019Global ResearchEquitiesEurope including UK AirlinesJarrod Castle, CFAAnalyst +44-20-756 88883Myles Walton, PhD, CFAAnalyst +1-617-439 8501Eric Lin Analyst +852-3712 3640Celine FornaroAnalyst +44-20-7567 9351Robin M. Farley Analyst +1-212-713 2060Cristian Nedelcu,CFA Analyst +44-20-7568

2、4375Q-SeriesWho will win the billionaires1 space race?The space travel and tourism opportunityAn $800bn-plus space economy opportunity by 2030EJune 2019 will be the 50th anniversary of the first man on the moon, and in this note we explore two sub-segments of an industry UBS expects to grow from $24

3、4bn in 2010 to $805bn by 2030E. The sub-segments of space tourism and space to serve long-haul travel on earth have both seen a high level of new venture formation (backed by wealthy entrepreneurs) and related government-sponsored programmes. In this report, we have analysed market size, selected pr

4、ivate-sector players, challenges and consumer appetite for this exciting new market.Space tourism likely to be a common reality in the not-too-distant futureWhile space tourism is still nascent, we think it will become mainstream as the technology becomes proven and costfalls. For instance, Bigelow

5、hassuccessfully tested an expandable space module that uses an outer shell technology which will enable larger accommodation structures to be built in space. By c2030, we estimate space tourism will be a $3bn-plus p.a. opportunity growing at double digit-rates. Readers can test their own hypothesis

6、through our interactive simulation model (Click here).We see an even bigger opportunity for space to service long-haul travelAlthough some might view the potential to use space to service the long-haul travel market as science fiction, we think the c800 route pairs on point-to-point flights that tak

7、e more than 10 hours mean there is a large market to be cannibalised. Even if we assume only 5% of the more than 150m passengers who flew those routes in 2018 are serviced by space, at $2,500 per trip, the opportunity would be worth over $20bn p.a.A potential game-changer in the long termNone of the

8、 hotel companies, airlines or tour operators under our coverage has disclosed plans to enter the space tourism or long-haul opportunity via space, but we think airlines and hotel groups are likely to enter the market over time. Indeed, like many other new disruptive segments (e.g., internet, digital

9、 photography), it is not the risk-averse incumbents that are the first movers, but new players. One could ask whether, at that point, it will be too late for incumbents to engage.Figure 1: Space tourism a near-term realitySource: iStockThis report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST C

10、ERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 39. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider t

11、his report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Figure 7: Cost NASA pays Russia to send one astronaut into space ($m)0 Other - trips to the Moon: Travellers may spend sometime on the Moon (see below).Below we summarise the cost of different space opportunities.Figure 8: Spectr

12、um of space tourism opportunities and base costsZero Gravity ExperienceZero Gravity ExperienceEdge of spaceSuborbital Low earth orbit / accommodation in spaceOtherPast cost per pax to visit ISS $20-40mOrion $550K per nightBigelow AerospaceAxiom Space $5.5m per nightTrip to Moon $150mSpaceXZero G $5.

13、7K World View Enterprises $75K Virgin Galactic $250kMIGFLUG $5.6KZero2lnfinity $75k Blue Origin $100-200kCosmo CourseSpaceX?Source: UBS, company dataIn order to quantify the space tourism opportunity, we have constructed a financial Interactive space tourism model model based on five scenarios. We h

14、ave also estimated the PV of the opportunity. created Readers can click this link to download the interactive analysis shown below to view several ready-made scenarios and try their own assumptions. Based on our base-case assumptions, we see the opportunity as worth close to $3bn by 2029.Our base ca

15、se is based on publicly available commercial plans and an assumed timeline. Nevertheless, given space tourism is nascent, both the timeline and base case opportunity are subject to high variability.Figure 9: Potential space tourism base case opportunity - interactive analysis screenChoose scenario缶r

16、o GfEdoe of spaceSu b-orfatalSO就u 和加on & ijtIjHjIVlslk iiwiiAssumptions: Zero G flights|1. Price per passenger ($) 500012 Number of trips per vear 400 , I13. Passengers per transportI E I14. Years until first launchI05. 5-yearevenue CAGR from 201 & to 2024I ” |6. Discount rateZero G flights: Aircraf

17、t undertakes parabolic arcs to create weightlessness. It looks like one of theZero G flights: Aircraft undertakes parabolic arcs to create weightlessness. It looks like one of the201&2023 2024 2025 2026 20272028 202G2020 20212022PV revenuesZero-GSub-orb HalOrbitalMoonAssumptionsPrice per passengerZe

18、ro G flights$5,000Edge of space$75KSub-orbital52MKSpace station & orbital S20MVisit moon 5150MNumber cf trips per year40010050121Passengers per xranspcrt15S444Years until first launch011455-year growth rate10%10%20%0%20%Source: UBSSpace routes for long-haul travel“The price of anything is how much l

19、ife you pay for it Henry David TherouxAlthough some readers of this report might think of the potential to use space to service the long-haul travel market on Earth as science fiction, we think that - as space technology continues to evolve and costs fall - it is likely that space will be used to se

20、rvice part of the market. In particular, we think the following routes offer potential: Long-haul aviation routes that take 10 hours or more on traditional flights; andRoutes that take less than 10 hours, but that carry relatively affluent and timesensitive travellers, such as the North Atlantic mar

21、ket (the largest premium market). Per the above quote people are likely willing to pay a premium for fast travel so that they have time for other activities.However, we do not think airlines can ignore space, as the future of international time-sensitive travel could see rockets going into space. In

22、deed, SpaceXs COO Gwynne Shotwell said ata TED talk in 2018 that - within a decade - SpaceX plans to operate an international travel service, using the Big Falcon Rocket (BFR), which can reach any location on Earth within an hour. The BFR would carry around 100 passengers and the objective is achiev

23、ing a cost point between that of a current economy and business class ticket.Servicing the long-haul travel market utilising space is not science fictionInternational travel accounts for over 60% of global trafficBelow, we break down by region the international air traffic routes, which account for

24、nearly 60%of all global traffic (the balance is domestic or intra-region). Over 30% of all international travel touches Europe, which makes it more likely that in the future Europe / Asia / North America routes for time-sensitive customers would partly be serviced through space travel.Figure 10: Glo

25、bal international traffic flows by region in 2017 (%)Europe /Asia c10iAtrica/Eurape ci%East/Afrfca cl%Africa /S America/Centrsl cl%5 America/Europe u改Asia /N AmericaS Pacific /Aua c才Source: UBS and IATALong-haul travel market on Earth is worth in excess of 0.3 trillionCa I if orn a S pac epo rt - Va

26、ndenberg AFB IM d-Atfant c RegronaISpaceport N ahopsF light FacifityHouston SpaceportIATA says the global commercial aviation market will be worth close to $0.9 trillion dollars in 2019. Of th is market, c$0.6 trillion relates to commercial passenger travel (4.6bn passengers). We envisage that the l

27、ong-haul market is worth at least $0.3- 0.4 trillion, but do not think the entire long-haul market would or could be serviced by using space, given population/route densities, the duration of traditional flights, and safety issues. Indeed, we envisage that the most likely city pairs to be serviced b

28、y space would be journeys of 10 hours or more to and from city pairs near the sea to alleviate safety concerns. We think it is likely that space hubs would be based on platforms out at sea, but close to the city being serviced. Nevertheless, current US space launch pads are near water but inland (Fi

29、gure 11). There are currently more than 20 space launch sites in the USA, with new spaceports proposed for Alabama, Georgia and Hawaii.Figure 11: US spaceports - private active ports口十 Flat Research RangePacrSpazeporr complex A .SpaceX Launch SiteWhsteS ands Missi ie R areSource: FAA / UBS, Key: Blu

30、e = FAA licensed/non-federal launch site; Red = Federal launch site: Black = Sole operatorA potentially greater market opportunity would emerge if the space port acts as a hub to service regions. A space port hub would allow a spacecraft to land and take off from one space port hub on Earth to anoth

31、er. We think passengers would use the space port hub to travel intercontinental point-to-point or to reduce journey times, but with another leg of onward journey travel by using more traditional means of transport once at the destination space port hub. We could see space port hubs by the following

32、cities/continents. Africa serviced by Cape Town or DurbanNorth America East Coast perhaps serviced by two cities - New York and Miami South American East Coast could have a space port by Rio de Janeiro or Buenos Aires North America West Coast - perhaps Los Angeles Asia from Hong Kong, Shanghai or/an

33、d Mumbai The Middle East from UAE Europe from the English Channel or perhaps IstanbulTrade-off between cost, time and safety concerns Australia and New Zealand from SydneyIn terms of specific routes, below we show the longest non-stop flights in the world. It is likely that some customers would be w

34、illing to trade cost versus time versus perceived safety/comfort. Nevertheless, it is possible that, overtime, the cost of travel using space would fall to the same as a current business-class ticket or less, which would increase. Furthermore, there are long haul flights even longer than below which

35、 currently are not able to be serviced point to point such as London to Sydney,Figure 12: Longest commercial flights - could be serviced by spaceINY to Singapore 18 hrs 30 mins, 9534m2London to Perth 17 hrs 20 mins, 9008m3 Doha to Auckland 1 6hrs 10 mins, 9032m4 Dubai to Auckland 16 hrs 5 mins, 8824

36、m5 Dallas to Sydney 16 hrs, 8589m6 Joburg to Atlanta 16 hrs 35 mins, 8449m7 San Fran to Singapore 17 hrs 15 mins, 8446m8 Abu Dhabi to LA 15 hrs 39 mins, 8387m9 Dubai to Los Angeles 15 hrs, 8335m10 Jeddah to LA 15 hrs 56 mins, 8329m11 Doha to LA 16 hrs 15 mins, 8306mINY to Singapore 18 hrs 30 mins, 9

37、534m2London to Perth 17 hrs 20 mins, 9008m3 Doha to Auckland 1 6hrs 10 mins, 9032m4 Dubai to Auckland 16 hrs 5 mins, 8824m5 Dallas to Sydney 16 hrs, 8589m6 Joburg to Atlanta 16 hrs 35 mins, 8449m7 San Fran to Singapore 17 hrs 15 mins, 8446m8 Abu Dhabi to LA 15 hrs 39 mins, 8387m9 Dubai to Los Angele

38、s 15 hrs, 8335m12 Jeddah to LA 15 hrs 56 mins, 8329m13 Doha to LA 16 hrs 15 mins, 8306m14 Dubai to Houston 16 hrs 19 mins, 8164m15 Abu Dhabi to San Fran 15 hrs 13 mins, 8154m16 Dallas to HK 15 hrs 8 mins, 8119m17 Dubai to San Fran 15 hrs 37 mins, 8099 m18 NY to HK 14 hrs 39 mins, 8068m17 Newark to H

39、K 15 hrs 38 mins, 8062m18 Doha to Houston 15 hrs 47 mins, 8045m19 Dubai to Dallas 15 hrs 17 mins, 8036m20 Abu Dhabi to Dallas 14 hrs 10mins, 8068m21 NY to Guangzhou 14 hrs 17 mins, 7998m22 NY to Johannesburg 14 hrs 57 mins, 7982mPotentially a $20bn-plus space long-haul market opportunitySource: UBSF

40、requency would need to be enhanced for space travel to service the marketFrequency would need to be enhanced for space travel to service the marketGlobally there are around 800 route pairs on point-to-point flights of over 10 hours, servicing over 150m passengers a year. There were 527k flights on t

41、hese routes in 2018, with planes that on average had 309 seats. If we assume that 5% of these flights in the future were serviced by space at $2500 per trip, the revenue opportunity would be more than $20bn a year as of today.We acknowledge that it is unlikely that a rocket will carry over 300 peopl

42、e any time soon. However, SpaceXs BFR ambition is to be able to carry 100 passengers per flight, and we could see increased frequency of space travel during the day to enable the same volume of passengers. Indeed, given the length of long-haul commercial travel, and the rules around crewing and take

43、-off and landing time slot restrictions at airports, we think a re-usable rocket (especially if not land-based) would have materially better utilisation rates than a commercial plane.Cost of space travel needs to come down materiallyIndeed, a 777 300ER undertaking long-haul from London to New York c

44、ould likely undertake two trips within a 24-hour period and in aggregate carry around 600 passengers (if full) and generate c$2.1m in revenues. To facilitate such volumes, a spacecraft would need to undertake six trips per day, and on an equivalent basis be able to charge c$0.35m per trip(C$3500 per

45、 person, per trip) generating c$2.1m in revenues per day. However, given the time saving, we anticipate that it is likely that more could be charged than currently for a standard commercial airline flight. Indeed, with a reduction in travel time, business people can spend those “freed” hours being m

46、ore productive. Clearly, the cost of a space flight would need to come down materially, but we do see the potential for the market to be serviced by space travel.Potential market for space flights is hereFigure 13: Revenue opportunity ($bn)- Cost ($) & penetration (%)-1O+hr routesSource: UBS estimat

47、es$1,500$2,500$5,000$7,500$10,0005.0%12204161817.5%1831619212210.0%24418112216312.5%315110215320415.0%376112218324417.5%437114221428520.0%4981163244326We think 5% penetration could prove conservative, as the findings from the UBS Evidence Lab survey suggested that more than 10% of respondents would

48、take a space flight. The survey found that 13% of respondents would be willing to travel frequently by spaceship, and a further 13% infrequently. In the US, 20% said they would travel frequently on a spaceship, while in Germany this number was 11%. However, the reliability of these surveys is low until respondents have a feel for the space travel exper