卡车运输业绩：即使估值并非完全合理股票也很难有所作为.docx

《卡车运输业绩：即使估值并非完全合理股票也很难有所作为.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《卡车运输业绩：即使估值并非完全合理股票也很难有所作为.docx（38页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、Table of contentsKey Charts3Truckload4Downgrading WERN to Underperform from Neutral; Lowering KNX Ests 4Cass Shipments IndexReflects Downward Trend inTL Volumes4MDI Suggests Demand Deteriorating, But Still Relatively Healthy4Contract Rates Under Pressure; Likely To Drive Margin Compression5Declines

2、in Contract Rates Typically Lead EPS Declines6WERN Typically Underperforms KNX During Contraction Periods6Valuation7Intermodal9Intermodal Volumes Appear to Have Peaked9Intermodal Pricing Pressure, on Two Fronts9Valuation9Less-than-T ruckload11ISM New Orders Deteriorating; Key Indicator for ODFL11Tou

3、gh Pricing Comps in Back Half of Year12Tonnage/Shipments Expected to Continue Declining Y/Y12Stock Had a Good Run in June; Further Upside is Relatively Limited13HOLT Analysis14Current Market Implied EBITDA Margins are Below the Historical Average for TL and IM Names14HOLT Valuation Analysis Suggests

4、 Current Valuations are Reasonable15Estimate and TP Revisions18Investment Risks20JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)21Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN)23Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR)25Knight Transportation (KNX)27Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)29Less-than-T ruckloadISM New Orders Deteriorating; Key I

5、ndicator for ODFLISM New Orders have been declining and approaching the critical 50 mark - which typically translates to lower LTL tonnage and shipments. Not surprisingly, this is generally a key indicator for ODFUs stock performance (see Figure 26).In June, ISM new orders were 50.0, which is a mean

6、ingful decline from the peak in December 2017 (67.4). Similarly, ISM new orders less inventories have been deteriorating. The most recent data point of 0.9 is well below the peak in December 2017 (18.9), and decelerated from the May data point of 1.8.Fiaure 24: ISM New Orders705 0 5 06 6 5 5Figure 2

7、5: ISM New Orders vs. Inventories Spread Not Siqnalina a Pick Up in Demand6Tunf 819。 8T、THun 9wn SE。 ?un 寸E。 I 17T，un 546Tu8T。 a 卜Ea ZJ，un 9T。9Tun ST。 ?un 寸E。 17T，unSource: FactSetSource: FactSetFiaure 26: ISM vs. ODFL Indexed Stock Price (Base . 700)MUO3S Pxpuma。o o o o o6 2 8 4 0 02 2 1 L 1 6c V i

8、c 6Tue 8TJU0 8T-三 8TNEO wd 9Tt;0 9T3 9T9Tue do I STUX 54ISM - New Orders ODFL Stock PriceSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesTough Pricing Comps in Back Half of YearWhile pricing has held strong in 2QTD, with revenue/CWT up 10.4% y/y, comps become significantly more challenging in the back

9、half of the year. Specifically, revenue/CWT (excl. fuel) improved 9.0% y/y in 3Q18 and 10.8% y/y in 4Q18.Additionally, ODFL noted on the Q1 call that it is seeing some aggressive pricing actions from its competitors. While this is currently limited to just a few players, we expect this trend to acce

10、lerate as the freight market continues to soften in order to gain market share. While we expect ODFL to remain disciplined on price, the company will likely see pressure on rates (and could possibly lose volumes). As such, we forecast a deceleration in revenue/CWT (excl. fuel) to +4% y/y in both 3Q1

11、9 and 4Q19.Fiaure 27: ODFL Rev/CWT (ex. Fuel) (% Chanae Y/Y)12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%Pricing comps are challenging in 2H19Pricing comps are challenging in 2H19LLbLCP 山 6Tom 山68Z 6Toi 8Tol7 8Tom 8Toi NTO寸 ZION 9Tol7 9Tom 9Toz0.0%Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesTonnage/Shipments Expected

12、 to Continue Declining Y/YGiven a softening LTL backdrop, we expect tonnage and shipments to continue to fall in the back half of the year (though we recognize comps are somewhat easier). And competitors appear to be taking more aggressive actions in order to gain market share, which will likely be

13、a headwind to tonnage/shipment growth. We note that this is also exacerbated by ODFLs strategy to target lower weight/shipment in order to improve yields and push capacity consuming freight out of the network.Fiaure 28: LTL Tonnaae/Dav (% Chanae Y/Y)Fiaure 29: LTL Shipments/Dav (% Chanae Y/Y)-10.0%9

14、 9r r-I r-I r-I8 8 8 8 6 ON 8工es NEON 二，Ae 工 9E0N9 TAe|/| ?ON stabiai 17ton 寸工e5Cass Truckload IndexCass Intermodal IndexSource: Truckstop via BloombergSource: Cass Information SystemsFigure 6: KNX Stock Outperforms WERN During Cass Contraction PeriodsFigure 5: Retail Inventories May Need Further8Tt

15、o 815 8Td4 8Tue NTto z.l,d4 9I，t0 9T5 9Td4 9TInTto ST3Retail Inventory/Sales excl. Autos 5-Year AverageCASS ContractionCASS Perf. 1Rank 1Feb-95-Oct-95-4.0%KNX-7.6%Mar-98Jan-99-14.1%WERN1.7%Sep-00-Aug-011 70/KNX-lo. / /o112.2%Jul-04-Mar-09KNX-29.7%14.8%Jun-14May-16-9.2%KNX9.9%Source: Cass Information

16、 Systems and FactSetRank 2WERN-25.6%KNX -2.7%WERN 90.6%WERN -24.1%WERN-6.1%Source: U.S. Census BureauAmericas/United States TruckingJB Hunt Transport Services(比日)Rating (from OUTPERFORM) NEUTRAL Price (1 O-Jul-19, US$)87.63Target price (US$) (from 112.00) 95.00 52-week price range (US$)127.44 - 84.8

17、4Market cap(US$ m)9,529Enterprise value (US$ m)10,810Target price is for 12 months.Research AnalystsDowngrade to Neutral Downgrade to Neutral: We are downgrading our investment opinion on JBHT to Neutral from Outperform. We have lowered our FY19 EPS estimate to $5.40, from $5.77. We have also reduce

18、d our FY20 and FY21 estimates toAllison M. Landry212 325 3716Samantha Yellen$6.08 and $7.04, from $6.71 and $7.80. Our target price falls to $95 (from $112) on account of lower base year (2020) EBIT and a higher discount rate in our DCF model.212 325 7451Brian Wright212 538 1855Risks to our Target P

19、rice: Risks to our target price include Class I railroad service and maintenance of an ongoing relationship with Burlington Northern Santa Fe and Norfolk Southern.Valuation Methodology: We derive our target price using a proprietary discounted cash flow model. We start with profit consistent with ou

20、r earnings estimate of $6.08 per share in 2020 and assume operating profit growth of 50% annually over the subsequent 3-5 year period. Based on our estimate of JBHTs return on incremental invested capital (ROIIC) of 65%, we assume it costs the company a little more than $1.55 of incremental capital (capex + acquisitions - D&A - divestitures +/- working capital) to generate $1.00 of incremental earnings before interest, taxes (EBIT). We use a consi