企业财务会计分析.pptx

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1、Topic Flow ChartGoal of Finance = Maximize Value of FirmHOW? Get the most cashSteps1. Methods to evaluate projects cash flow (NPV, IRR, etc)2. Develop risk adjusted discount rates for use in NPV3. Apply NPV, IRR, Decision Trees, PVI, etc to capital budgeting decisions4. Changes in capital structure

2、influence discount rates5. Financial Distress can result form changes in capital structure Efficient Capital Markets Switches gears Past lectures decided how to spend money (invest) Todays lecture deal with raising money (financing decisions) Fisher Separation TheoremMarket Efficiency Theory sezCapi

3、tal markets reflect all relevant information. You can not consistently earn excess profits. Efficient Capital MarketsEfficient Capital MarketsDSRQtyCost of Capital = Price of MoneyType of Market Efficiency Weak Form Efficiency Semistrong Form Efficiency Strong Form EfficiencyEfficient Market Theory-

4、16-11-6-149141924293439Days Relative to annoncement dateCumulative Abnormal Return (%)Announcement DateEfficient Market Theory-40-30-20-10010203040196219771992Return (%)FundsMarketAverage Annual Return on 1493 Mutual Funds and the Market IndexEfficient Market Theory05101520FirstSecondThirdFourthFift

5、hAverage Return (%)IPOMatched StocksIPO Non-Excess ReturnsYear After OfferingEfficient Market TheoryStrong-Form Efficiency TestHistorical performance1.4-1.6%-1.1%-% 1.6-ReturnsAbnormalFundsMutualAdvisorsInvestmentCompaniesInsuranceBanksRandom Walk TheoryS&P 500 Five Year Trend?or5 yrs of the Coin To

6、ss Game?80130180MonthLevelRandom Walk TheoryS&P 500 Five Year Trend?or5 yrs of the Coin Toss Game?80130180230MonthLevelEfficient Market TheoryFundamental AnalystsResearch the value of stocks using NPV and other measurements of cash flow Efficient Market TheoryTechnical AnalystsForecast stock prices

7、based on the watching the fluctuations in historical prices (thus “”)Market Efficiency TheoryConflicts in Theory Stock market crash of 1987 Daily fluctuationsCulprits? Arbitrage Computers InstitutionsEfficient Market Theory1987 Stock Market Crash119310.114.7 .16)(crash pregrDivindexPVEfficient Marke

8、t Theory1987 Stock Market Crash119310.114.7 .16)(crash pregrDivindexPV928096.114.7 .16)(crashpost grDivindexPVLessons of Market Efficiency Markets have no memory Trust market prices There are no financial illusions Do it yourself diversification Seen one stock, seen them all Reading the entrailsCorp

9、orate FinancingTypes of Financing1 - Equity2 - Debt3 - HybridsCorporate Financing READ TEXT FOR TERMINOLOGYInitial OfferingInitial Public Offering (IPO) - First offering of stock to the general public.Underwriter - Firm that buys an issue of securities from a company and resells it to the public.Spr

10、ead - Difference between public offer price and price paid by underwriter.Prospectus - Formal summary that provides information on an issue of securities.Underpricing - Issuing securities at an offering price set below the true value of the security.General Cash OffersSeasoned Offering - Sale of sec

11、urities by a firm that is already publicly traded. General Cash Offer - Sale of securities open to all investors by an already public company.Shelf Registration - A procedure that allows firms to file one registration statement for several issues of the same security.Private Placement - Sale of secu

12、rities to a limited number of investors without a public offering.Rights Issue - example YRU Corp currently has 9 million shares outstanding. The market price is $15/sh. YRU decides to raise additional funds via a 1 for 3 rights offer at $12 per share. If we assume 100% subscription, what is the val

13、ue of each right? Current Market Value = 9 mil x $15 = $135 mil Total Shares = 9 mil + 3 mil = 12 mil Amount of new funds = 3 mil x $12 = $36 mil New Shre Price = (136 + 36) / 12 = $14.25/sh Value of a Right = 15 - 14.25 = $0.75 WSJ ArticleDJIA 10% below pre-terrorist attacksLong term interest rates

14、.below historical levelsRisk premiums are higher than normalInflation expectations are lowEPSEPSPEgrCFshareper PriceWSJ ArticleEffect on prices & PE Malkiel research shows 22 as current required market PE, compared to 15 historially Inflated earnings estimates may exist New higher PE base may exist due to growthEPSEPSPEgrCFshareper Price