煤炭行业2020年报及2021年一季报综述.docx

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1、目录2020年报及2021年一季报核心解读： 62020年：受疫情影响煤炭公司业绩承压 82021年一季度：需求强力反弹助力煤炭公司业绩大幅提升12动力煤：2020年业绩下滑，2021年一季度业绩强势反弹 182020年：动力煤业绩降至2017年以来最低点182021年一季度：需求强力反弹助力板块业绩大幅上升21动力煤板块重点公司跟踪23炼焦煤：2020年业绩创新高，2021年一季度业绩愈发亮眼 252020年：疫情影响下焦煤价格先降后升 252021年一季度：旺盛需求带动下煤价显著增长，业绩大幅提升27炼焦煤板块重点公司追踪29煤炭炼制：2020年业绩有所改善，2021年一季度业绩愈发耀眼

2、312020年：量价齐稳背景下，板块业绩实现增长 312021年一季度：量价齐升下，板块业绩表现耀眼33投资建议35图表目录图1： 2020年至2021年一季度动力煤板块走势复盘 6图2： 2020年至2021年一季度炼焦煤板块走势复盘 7图3： 2020年至2021年一季度煤炭炼制板块走势复盘8图4： 2020年规模以上工业增加值累计同比增速放缓 8图5： 2020年原煤总产量同比增长0.9%8图6：秦皇岛港山西产（Q5500）动力煤价格变化情况9图7：京唐港山西产主焦煤价格变化情况9图8：煤炭开采和洗选业亏损面情况（单位：个）10图9： 2020年煤炭板块营收同比增加1.55%10图10：

3、 2020年煤炭板块归母净利润同比减少1.52%10图11： 2020年煤炭板块毛利率同比下降2.15个百分点11图12： 2020年煤炭板块期间费用率同比下降1.25个百分点11图13： 2020年煤炭板块ROE同比下降0.91个百分点11图14： 2020年煤炭板块ROA同比下降0.46个百分点11图15：煤炭板块PE与历史估值中枢 12图16：煤炭板块PB与历史估值中枢 12图17： 2015年以来煤炭子板块估值箱线图13图18： 2021年一季度煤炭板块营收同比增加26.25%13图19： 2021年一季度煤炭板块归母净利润同比增加62.84%13图20： 2021年一季度煤炭板块毛利

4、率同比上升1.34个百分点13资料来源：Wind,600508.SH上海能源0.9200.2789.552.91%601699.SH潞安环能0.6500.1948.042.41%601898.SH中煤能源0.4500.1345.832.30%603113.SH金能科技1.2800.34816.742.08%000983.SZ山西焦煤0.4780.1005.651.77%601011.SH宝泰隆0.0300.0503.951.27%601918.SH新集能源0.3270.0353.161.11%600546.SH山煤国际0.4200.0666.491.02%601015.SH陕西黑猫0.1700

5、.0506.780.74%601101.SH昊华能源0.0400.0304.090.73%2021年一季度：需求强力反弹助力煤炭公司业绩大幅 提升2021年一季度，煤炭板块实现营业收入2957.88亿元，同比增加26.25%;实现归母净 利润321.31亿元，同比增加62.84%o受益于经济复苏带动的需求强力反弹，一季度煤 炭板块业绩同比大幅上升。从当前估值与历史估值中枢来看，煤炭板块PE和PB估值均处于历史相对低位。考虑 到煤炭行业经营情况受到煤价的影响较大，在局部时间区间PE估值的可参考不强，我 们通过拉取2015年来煤炭子板块PB估值水平，发现动力煤、炼焦煤和煤炭炼制估值 均处于2015

6、年以来的较低水平，仅略高于各自板块2015以来下四分位的水平。图16：煤炭板块PB与历史估值中枢图15:煤炭板块PE与历史估值中枢5OLoeoe zooeoe 寸。OCMOCM s，oCMoe OLose Z965Z 寸965CM 5，65e OLoose ZO005CM 寸。005e L0,8se oTzse 6Z5CM 寸。*oe 3:se OLcose 952 boCDse 5，95e oTgse zolnse 寸。lose slnse c Tccc 5，Roe OLoeoe zo,oCMoe 寸。oeoe L90CM0CM OLoLoe Z965CM 寸96L0e L965CM OLo

7、ose zoooae 寸。ooae 5008CM oTzse Z9Z5Z 寸。、5OJ L9Z5CM 0T95CM Z995CM 寸。，98e L998CM OL1nLoe zousse 寸。，gLOOJ 5，s5d。煤炭-PE 近3年均值近5年均值CJ煤炭-PB近3年均值 近5年均值资料来源：Wind,资料来源:Wind,图17: 2015年以来煤炭子板块估值箱线图65432102015年以来煤炭子板块PB估值箱线图资料来源:Wind,2021年一季度，动力煤板块实现营收2212.66亿元，同比增加25.04%;归母净利润 242.37亿元，同比增加46.83%;毛利率28.02%,同比上升

8、0.18个百分点。炼焦煤板 块实现营收565.35亿元，同比增加20.17%;归母净利润54.56亿元，同比增加81.46%;毛利率27.64%,同比上升4.10个百分点。煤炭炼制板块实现营收179.87亿元，同比 增力口 74.93%;归母净利润24.38亿元，同比增力口 1018.34%;毛利率20.94%,同比上 升11.38个百分点。图19: 2021年一季度煤炭板块归母净利润同比增加62.84%图18: 2021年一季度煤炭板块营收同比增加26.25%煤炭分季度营收（亿元）同比3503002502001501005002020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q1100

9、%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%煤炭分季度归母净利润（亿元）一一同比资料来源:Wind,资料来源:Wind,图20: 2021年一季度煤炭板块毛利率同比上升1.34个百分点资料来源:Wind,12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%图21: 2021年一季度煤炭板块期间费用率同比下降2.96个百分点资料来源：Wind, 销售费用为负图23: 2021年一季度煤炭板块ROA同比增加0.64个百分点图22: 2021年一季度煤炭板块ROE同比增加1.22个百分点煤炭分季度ROE同比（右轴）2.0%1.8%1.6%1.4%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%0.6%0

10、.4%0.2%0.0%-0.2%-0.4%0.8%-0.6%2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q1煤炭分季度ROA同比（右轴）资料来源:Wind,资料来源：Wind,表4:煤炭板块2021年一季度财务数据概览（单位：亿元，上年同期业绩亏损那么业绩同比增速不适用）2021Q1板块动力煤炼焦煤煤炭炼制U00552Z000571.SZ000780.SZ002128.SZ600121.SH600188.SH600348.SH600397.SH动力煤600403.SH600508.SH600546.SH600971.SH601001.SH601088.SH601101.SH6012

11、25.SH601898.SH601918.SH000937：SZ000983.SZ炼焦煤 600157.SH600395.SH600758.SH600985.SH600997.SH601666.SH601699.SHG0072TSZ煤炭炼制600408.SH600740.SH600792.SH601011.SH601015.SH603113.SH*ST大洲 *ST平能 露天煤业 郑州煤电 兖州煤业 华阳股份 安源煤业ST大有上海能源山煤国际恒源煤电晋控煤业中国神华昊华能源陕西煤业中煤能源新集能源冀中能源山西焦煤永泰能源盘江股份辽宁能源淮北矿业开滦股份平煤股份潞安环能ST安泰山西焦化云煤能源宝泰

12、隆陕西黑猫金能科技营业收入2021Q1净利润趋势毛利率2021Q1同比趋势1司比2021Q1同比趋势2,212.66125.04% 242.3716.83%28.02%0.18%565.35120.17%54.56131.|46%27.64%4.11%179.8774.93%24.38io|18.34%20.94%11.3B%2,957.88| 26.25%321.3152.84%27.52%1.3% f J+v11.869.03%飞八中嘘1.6118.74%28.00%331 % 驶-%/%好./1.31-43.23%1-0.34-w 一0.46%-24.17%4.6315.12%-1.08

13、-V20.70%4%57.86117.64%10.112.91%40.25%-0.14%8.31 J40.65%-0.32-26.60%19.1310.56-35.31%22.511I0.19%22.80%11.021 %107.74 I(27.46%4.621I2.41%J14.91%1.40%19.3451.46%-0.22-5.60%0.00%17.068.98%1.342I56.86%28.20%2.5f% 6飞kf20.071 14.77%1.92:L5.86%24.99%-6.41%93.67卜 3.78%*MMH*1*3.19)|.61% 公/人一20.02%-0.11%15.6

14、3127.07%2.48f.15%38.84%-0.04%35.2629.10%5.05173.11%38.08%-17.02%”676.08卜 2.36%/116.11|8.40%空72%尸发32.60%-8.16% 冰4、13.7349.73%1.72536.98% 飞l一z50.18%1.3% y347.66|8172%33.7113.36%28.39%-4.64%444.43 161.49%35.094)-4%26.06%-2.69% 八5谪27.48 18.29%4.851295.01%45.40%11.6|刨WK59.7615.24%1.61:29.17%22.71%LI，92.5

15、919.42%9.1019.35%28.39%-1.57%54.2117.33%2.08612.16%A20.94%-4.40% 小产、/%.17.1917.72%2.071523%31.34%7.61%知”416.31-10.96%0.39-飞r-y#17.59%4.71% 3y126.201 12.77%11.94l|09% 广、”24.50%4.91% j一58.39卜 5.62%夕J6.06.88%23.20%6.71%63.148.31%5.453O.|49%28.14%8.81% 一r77.57K8.57%15.87185sz44.54%6.91%37.5660.02%6.37-3

16、4.07%18.7网上26.46|7J.95%2.55-15.14%9.2E人23.447d.83%4.513A 一12.49%17.613.65128.08%0.512180.20%10.94%1.64% /八5,8.12 1127.71%0.435|)4.89%16.26%2.844.909039% y /5.25-19.58%14.7|3% /wx/25.74|J32.16%Lj/4.751，3%A24.56%6.L1%八W资料来源：Wind,表5:分季度营收同比（重述后）资料来源：Wind,1分季度营收同比2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020

17、Q42021Q1趋势|动力煤10.80%2.13%9.73%-4.91%0.87%4.39%15.27%25.04%板块炼焦煤3.25%0.80%5.84%-11.73%-11.74%-6.26%3.30%20.17%煤炭炼制4.34%-11.54%-22.79%-30.48%-14.89%1.79%21.58%74.93%力.2“*合计8.81%1.06%6.75%-7.83%256%2.09%13.15%26.25%000552.SZ靖远煤电-23.51%-0.99%13.42%-14.08%4.92%-4.72%-16.97%9.03%000571.SZ *ST 大洲-30.19%-5.

18、88%52.60%-28.56%-2.61%-39.01%-52.87%-43.23%000780.SZ *ST 平能-1.65%44.22%-16.54%-0.08%-9.17%-34.85%-7.92%15.12%八修二3天002128.SZ 露天煤业8.81%11.62%5.15%5.38%-1.67%5.66%9.80%17.64%600121.SH郑州煤电-22.54%-26.42%-42.30%-43.27%35.54%-18.92%29.17%40.65%J600188.SH兖州煤业31.29%4.09%14.19%-5.47%10.87%-0.23%-5.04%-35.31%J

19、I111600348.SH华阳股份-15.21%5.91%10.35%4.50%-7.78%-14.23%0.18%27.46%乃600397.SH安源煤业-3.15%0.46%1.55%-18.17%37.99%87.89%46.21%51.46%/一动力煤 600403.SH ST大有-22.58%-19.36%-33.57%-0.28%-11.30%1.08%8.45%8.98%600508.SH上海能源8.59%7.09%23.68%-6.14%4.10%-4.62%7.74%14.77%600546.SH山煤国际12.59%-22.97%174.30%-7.80%-10.14%-18

20、.10%28.44%23.78%600971.SH恒源煤电4.96%-8.07%3.82%-24.22%-31.73%-18.29%30.49%27.07%人上601001.SH晋控煤业20.44%18.21%-22.59%3.57%-20.51%-6.13%10.26%29.10%J601101.SH昊华能源-15.08%12.78%-9.90%-34.00%-15.22%-29.86%-3.61%49.73%601225.SH陕西煤业33.14%22.03%40.74%27.28%12.20%39.61%33.87%86.72%夕601898.SH中煤能源29.22%23.81%29.82

21、%-6.90%7.59%16.98%16.07%61.49%601918.SH新集能源0.71%17.74%2.33%-24.08%-16.92%-4.96%9.76%58.29%000937.SZ冀中能源6.10%0.68%-7.31%-10.30%-7.14%-0.47%-15.55%15.24%000983.SZ山西焦煤5.86%-4.79%-6.79%-18.18%-14.66%-1.52%5.72%19.42%J600157.SH 永泰能源-26.28%-6.15%3.71%-12.17%23.55%0.94%8.52%17.33%产八k600395.SH盘江股份11.94%11.2

22、3%-8.04%-16.99%-14.25%-8.86%-3.07%17.72%,/炼焦煤 600758.SH辽宁能源-4.39%-9.24%-3.46%-1.17%-20.39%-11.76%-60.05%-10.96%if.600985.SH淮北矿业6.85%11.95%51.35%-10.44%-21.57%-17.18%0.56%12.77%600997.SH开滦股份0.07%-10.57%-13.29%-18.49%-15.10%-7.57%7.08%25.62%1sgi601666.SH平煤股份26.33%6.40%-0.03%-3.05%-9.23%-4.94%-3.78%831

23、%J 601699.SH潞安环能-1.29%-4.84%0.20%-10.36%-6.04%-7.54%10.28%38.57%一 一一/000723.SZ美锦能源-2.52%-19.67%-29.35%-48.51%-11.50%21.59%17.63%69.02%600408.SH ST 安泰13.25%-2.25%-2.03%-34.20%-6.26%-1.03%8.44%71.95%FJ600740.SH 山西焦化14.99%8.90%-31.29%-8.08%-8.70%2.71%50.01%76.83%faJ煤炭炼制600792.SH云煤能源8.87%8.59%-5.20%-233

24、6%-17.62%-17.89%-11.77%28.08%一飞一601011.SH 宝泰隆-8.14%-39.06%-38.16%-18.84%-31.56%-1.01%58.47%27.71%601015.SH陕西黑猫4.61%-21.11%-29.10%-38.66%-22.67%8.16%45.60%190.39%-603113.SH金能科技0.27%-12.16%-21.11%-2.55%-18.94%-17.34%10.86%32.16%表6:分季度归母净利润同比（重述后，上年同期业绩亏损那么业绩同比增速不适用）分季度净利润同比2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020

25、Q22020Q32020Q42021Q1趋势|动力煤8.06%14.59%-23.80%-25.69%-12.54%4.69%26.09%46.83%板块炼焦制120.87%11.07%-27.45%-20.12%-16.53%-13.11%281.29%81.46%八煤炭炼制-42.97%-60.11%-87.25%-80.80%-29.64%75.39%469.05%1018.34%产 ,一. J合计6.44%8.59%-31.33%-27.22%-13.63%4.59%76.13%62.84%一000552.SZ靖远煤电-18.21%-29.84%76.53%-1.00%1.46%-1.

26、81%-53.46%8.74%000571.SZ*ST大洲-456.63%-/000780.SZ*ST平能-590.75%-664.59%-w002128.SZ露天煤业20.04%45.86%27.31%25.11%-27.03%10.41%-97.70%2.91%600121.SH郑州煤电-93.36%-221.04%-1878.4%-2640.4%-600188.SH兖州煤业44.41%39.57%-29.97%-33.83%0.65%-32.80%-51.23%30.19%600348.SH华阳股份38.81%2.88%-81.70%-28.64%-35.70%-30.04%296.19

27、%22.41%.一一八600397.SH安源煤业-117.55%-480.71%-490.83%-97.91%-动力煤600403.SHST大有-127.20%-81.41%-76.26%-19.65%-266.86%600508.SH上海能源-9.07%21.57%-6.09%2.34%-30.27%-15.86%4飞600546.SH山煤国际14.96%301.17%-7.05%-15.83%-31.48%-51.64%55.61%/V_600971.SH恒源煤电3.55%-4.89%-22.84%-15.52%-26.25%-91.42%-11.16%24.15%i一尸601001.SH

28、晋控煤业-37.50%21.61%11206.21%23.61%-32.14%45.21%-48.83%73.11%人,601101.SH昊华能源-38.32%-42.85%-88.57%-69.63%-94.10%-586.98%-J601225.SH陕西煤业-0.20%10.02%20.26%-15.08%-15.07%102.11%33.14%43.36%5601898.SH601918.SH中煤能源新集能源70.51%-19.06%45.68%735.53%-57.92%-91.46%-26.09%-82.01%-6.52%-75.03%-441.14%1295.01%/L J0009

29、37.SZ冀中能源-29.81%12.59%628.74%6.97%62.37%0.54%-132.34%-29.17%000983.SZ山西焦煤11.96%32.03%-134.32%-10.16%-18.34%-3.82%-49.35%600157.SH永泰能源-73.66%-13.29%26.56%140.12%46619.37%642.16%A600395.SH盘江股份29.06%38.12%-10.85%-55.12%-35.20%-23.04%21.39%55.23%炼焦煤600758.SH辽宁能源-85.56%-190.67%-395.44%-339.38%-600985.SH淮

30、北矿业33.46%9.61%-26.89%-9.52%-17.65%14.48%-7.09%44.09%600997.SH开滦股份8.05%-29.36%-62.84%-11.98%-34.58%-13.57%97.38%86.88%尸，601666.SH平煤股份10.55%32.79%45.05%-7.20%4930%15.25%29.54%80.49%601699.SH潞安环能-6.70%-27.20%127.24%-23.29%-3035%-69.42%249.44%126.23%u.八000723.SZ美锦能源-11.93%-64.68%-78.78%-115.74%-50.76%96

31、.63%87.02%-600408.SHST安泰-87.85%-30.96%20.85%-144.99%-68.04%-33.56%-10.97%-八厂“600740.SH山西焦化-38.58%-71.58%-273.35%-78.79%18.40%263.07%-350.19%煤炭炼制600792.SH云煤能源-35.79%-73.90%-88.44%-133.25%-65.73%67.63%2180.20%一 J601011.SH宝泰隆-87.25%-117.29%-96.74%-91.95%-61.40%-1423.54%594.89%一八601015.SH陕西黑猫-266.93%-65

32、.06%-87.39%-323.21%-239.58%1548.91%-603113.SH金能科技-6.72%-49.87%-51.26%63.19%-22.46%5.63%46.64%100.13%资料来源:Wind,表7:分季度毛利率同比（重述后）资料来源：Wind,1分季度毛利率同比2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q1趋势|动力煤-3.64%-1.15%-5.47%-2.95%-3.90%-1.93%-2.53%0.18%板块炼焦煤-3.54%-1.13%-5.57%-1.42%0.58%1.17%-2.47%4.10%煤炭炼制

33、-2.44%-7.89%-10.46%-3.53%-2.31%3.43%4.60%11.38%合计-3.70%-1.41%-5.55%-2.37%-2.77%-0.97%-2.17%1.34%000552.SZ蜻远煤电1.14%-7.65%8.02%0.35%-1.69%2.90%7.17%3.51%000571.SZ *ST 大洲-8.44%12.55%-31.84%-0.30%28.94%1.51%-10.18%-24.17%入000780.SZ *ST 平能-10.57%-8.00%12.70%0.89%-9.37%-0.58%-14.49%4.17%002128.SZ露天煤业-24.6

34、5%-12.80%-11.99%-14.92%7.57%4.81%0.09%-0.14%一尸一600121.SH郑州煤电-4.69%-10.77%-11.48%-15.91%-19.92%-0.55%-15.92%19.16%600188.SH兖州煤业-6.76%-4.67%-3.99%-3.79%-4.07%-1.87%6.17%11.02%1ax600348.SH华阳股份6.51%-0.54%-9.17%-4.81%-4.54%-0.60%5.11%1.40%600397.SH安源煤业-2.51%-9.22%0.29%-3.87%-4.65%-0.15%-6.55%0.00%动力煤 600

35、403.SH ST大有-12.32%-10.99%-1.71%-7.74%7.05%-7.18%-2.87%2.54%600508.SH上海能源-5.51%2.75%-10.69%1.41%-0.49%-6.80%3.57%-6.41%600546.SH山煤国际4.57%5.22%-68.29%1.29%-2.28%7.14%-21.38%-0.11%600971.SH恒源煤电1.10%7.44%-13.23%2.24%0.04%-18.82%-15.05%-0.04%PR601001.SH晋控煤业1.27%0.08%19.33%3.28%-8.66%3.19%-74.19%-17.02%60

36、1088.SH中国神华0.23%0.21%-3.66%-1.24%0.88%-0.06%-0.30%-8.16%飞601101.SH昊华能源-1.51%-13.05%8.74%-7.59%-2.51%5.04%-56.40%1.38%601225.SH陕西煤业-10.97%-5.21%-4.38%-11.25%-9.34%-11.93%-18.35%-4.64%601898.SH中煤能源1.05%1.35%-5.97%-1.21%-5.86%-3.84%2.86%-2.69%一、八八601918.SH新集能源-2.80%3.57%1.37%-6.49%-10.16%-0.37%3.65%11.

37、61%一000937.SZ冀中能源-2.49%-0.89%-5.31%0.46%3.18%1.31%-4.04%1.11%000983.SZ山西焦煤4.25%2.04%-3.48%1.01%-5.49%1.92%-13.17%-1.57%600157.SH永泰能源8.70%6.35%-5.16%-3.01%-8.01%-5.62%-5.42%-4.40%600395.SH盘江股份0.56%7.62%-5.25%-13.34%-2.09%-2.83%4.54%7.63%“y炼焦煤 600758.SH辽宁能源-1.13%-6.68%5.15%-7.59%-5.20%-5.78%-3.22%4.70%600985.SH淮北矿业-28.02%-5.37%-16.01%-0.76%2.32%3.49%0.48%4.95%600997.SH开滦股份0.24%-1.14%-5.46%0.92%-0.01%0.11%5.14%6.72%601666.SH平煤股份-1.97%1.00%1.88%-1.11%11.63%8.11%10.60%8.87%601699.SH潞安环能-0.95%-2.38%-2.41%-3.79%-8.35%-5.87%-3.06%6.96%000723.SZ美锦能源2.72%-10.44%-11