2021年全球能源评论.docx
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1、INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYIEA association countries:BrazilChina India Indonesia MoroccoSingapore South Africa ThailandThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to e
2、nergy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond.Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions
3、 that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory
4、, city or area.IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium CanadaCzech Republic Denmark EstoniaFinland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland ItalyJapan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United Stat
5、esThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEASource: IEA. All rights reserved.International Energy AgencyWebsite: ieaRate of change of energy demand in 2020, and 2021 energy demand relative to 2019 levels, by region5%China0%-5%Middle EastXfricaSouthea st AsiaBrazil;ea-n UnionJap
6、an:nite i StatesIndia、Russia World-10%-6%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2021/2019IEA. All rights reserved.Note: Bubble size is relative to regional primary energy demand in 2021.Most emerging market and developing economies also experienced a drop in energy demand in 2020, albeit less than in advanced econom
7、ies. Demand declined 5% in India, around 3% in Southeast Asia, 2% in the Middle East and 1.5% across Africa.China was a notable exception, the only major economy to experience both an increase in economic output and in energy demand in 2020. While restrictions to control the outbreak of Covid-19 dep
8、ressed demand in the first quarter, the economy began to recover from April. For the remainder of the year, energy demand grew by 6% on average from pre-Covid-19 levels. Despite the impressive growth of renewables, increasing electricity demand led to an all-time high coal burn in December 2020.Econ
9、omic activity in China is set to further accelerate in 2021, and energy demand is expected to grow by 6%, with demand in 2021 almost 8% higher than in 2019, thus cementing Chinas position as the economy least impacted by Covid-19.wsaj sr6一-山-Indias steep economic slide in 2020 pushed oil demand down
10、 by more than 8%, while coal demand for power generation and industry fell by 5% and 11%, respectively. India5s CO2 emissions were more than 40% lower in April 2020 than they were a year earlier, making it the steepest monthly decline in emissions seen in any part of the world last year. But with In
11、dias economy expected to bounce back strongly in 2021, energy demand is set to rebound by 7%, pushing demand 2% above 2019 levels. Coal demand is expected to increase by almost 9%, contributing the most to rebounding demand, as electricity demand recovers.C02 emissionsGlobal 002 emissions declined b
12、y 5.8% in 2020, or almost 2 Gt C02-the largest ever decline and almost five times greater than the 2009 decline that followed the global financial crisis. C02 emissions fell further than energy demand in 2020 owing to the pandemic hitting demand for oil and coal harder than other energy sources whil
13、e renewables increased. Despite the decline in 2020, global energy- related CO2 emissions remained at 31.5 Gt, which contributed to CO2 reaching its highest ever average annual concentration in the atmosphere of 412.5 parts per million in 2020 - around 50% higher than when the industrial revolution
14、began.In 2021 global energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to rebound and grow by 4.8% as demand for coal, oil and gas rebounds with the economy. The increase of over 1 500 Mt CO2 would be the largest single increase since the carbonintensive economic recovery from the global financial crisis m
15、ore than a decade ago, it leaves global emissions in 2021 around 400 Mt CO2, or 1.2%, below the 2019 peak.Global CO2 emissions rebound by nearly 5% in 2021, approaching the 2018-2019 peak.Global energy-related CO2 emissions, 1990-2021, and change in CO2 emissions by fuel, 1990-202140zoo5302010199019
16、9520002005201020152021 Coal Oil GasIEA. All rights reserved.CO2 emissions by fuelDespite global economic activity rising above 2019 levels in 2021 and global energy demand rebounding above 2019 levels, we do not anticipate a full return of CO2 emissions to pre-crisis levels. Even with an increase in
17、 CO2 emissions from oil of over 650 Mt CO2 in 2021, oil-related emissions are expected to recover only around half of the 2020 drop and thus should remain 500 Mt CO2 below 2019 levels. The likely partial recovery is entirely due to the continued impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and related restricti
18、ons on transport activity in 2021. CO2 emissions from international aviation are set to remain 200 Mt CO2 (or one- third) below pre-pandemic levels in 2021, while emissions from road transport and domestic aviation are on track to be close to 350 Mt CO2 (or 5%) below 2019 levelsin 2021. A full recov
19、ery of global transport activity would push oil-related emissions above 2019 levels and increase global CO2 emissions by over 1.5%, well above 2019 levels.Global coal use is anticipated to rebound in 2021 and drive an increase in global CO2 emissions of around 640 Mt CO2. This would push emissions f
20、rom coal to 14.8 Gt CO2: 0.4% above 2019 levels and only 350 Mt CO2 short of the global high in coal-related CO2 emissions of 2014. The power sector accounted for less than 50% of the drop in coal-related emissions in 2020, but it accounts for 80% of the rebound, largely due to rapidly increasing co
21、al-fired generation in Asia.CO2 emissions from natural gas combustion are expected to increase by more than 215 Mt CO2 in 2021 to reach an all-time high of 7.35 Gt CO2, 22% of global CO2 emissions. Gas use in buildings and industry accounts for much of the trend, with demand in public and commercial
22、 buildings seeing the greatest drop in demand in 2020 but the biggest anticipated recovery in 2021.CO2 emissions by regionEmerging markets and developing economies now account for more than two- thirds of global CO2 emissions, while emissions in advanced economies are in a structural decline, despit
23、e an anticipated 4% rebound in 2021.Chinas emissions are likely to increase by around 500 Mt CO2- With energy demand and emissions already growing in 2020, in 2021 CO2 emissions in China should be 6%, or almost 600 Mt CO2, above 2019 levels. All fossil fuels should contribute to higher CO2 emissions
24、 in China in 2021, but coal is expected to dominate, contributing 70% to the increase, predominantly due to greater coal use in the power sector. Despite Chinas rapid growth in generation from renewables, output from coal-fired power plants has increased by 330 TWh, or nearly 7%, between 2019 and 20
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