2021年全球数字零售银行报告.docx

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1、Contents05 | The15 | A New Paradigm for CostsChallengeStarts Now07 | Revenues AreUnder Pressure11 | MoreCustomers Are Becoming More Digital More QuicklySubdued Revenue Growth Is Anticipated During the Next FourYearsRetail and private-client revenues globally ($billions)QuickQuickreboundSlowrecoveryD

2、eeperimpact1,5001,00020142012012012012022022022022024201CAGR2.81.02019-2024(%)2,5862,3712,2542,132ndy2024scenarioPea eicPSource: BCGsbankingpools,September2020.A Slow Recovery. In a slow recovery, a deep decline in the GDP growth rate in 2020 reverts to the prepandemic rate following a U-shaped rebo

3、und. GDP returns to 2019 levels in 2022. Employment improves, but stubborn pockets of unemployment continue in deeply affected sectors. Global trade slowly regains momentum, although many barriers remain in place. Consumer confidence partly recovers, but it remains volatile as uncertainty lingers. B

4、anks experience sector-specific loan losses and some impact on unsecured retail lending.A Deeper Impact. Under this scenario, the coronavirus remains prevalent, resurfacing in multiple waves. Recessionary conditions are hard to overcome in many regions. GDP follows an elongated L trajectory, with hi

5、gh or rising unemployment rates over multiple years. GDP does not return to 2019 levels until 2024. Global trade takes a structural hit, and geopolitical tensions rise. Consumer confidence declines in the face of repeated lockdowns. Corporate and retail lenders experience large-scale loan losses.Fro

6、m a regional perspective, there5s bad news for banks in developed markets. In the latter two scenarios, the revenue outlook is between modest and bleak. Even with a quick recovery, retail banks in developed markets face a slow climb back to 2019 revenue levels.The Most Profound Revenue Declines Are

7、Expected to Be inWestern Europe and North AmericaGlobal retail-banking revenue pools ($billions)Global retail-banking revenue pools ($billions)Eastern EuropeMiddleEastandAfrica Latin AmericaAsia-Pacific2019QuickSlowDeeperreboundrecoveryimpact2024E2024E2024ECAGR for revenue scenarios, 2019-2024Region

8、sQuick rebound (%)Slow recovery (%)Deeper impact (%)WesternEuropeNorthAmericaEasternEuropeMiddleEast andAfricaLatin AmericaAsia-PacificSource: BCGsbankingpools,September2020.From a product standpoint, revenues from consumer finance loans and other lending will take the largest hit.In addition, an in

9、crease in contactless mobile payments may lead to a long-term shift away from credit cardNew business will be hard to come by. The positive impactusagea change that could be exacerbated by a shift fromof e-commerce will be partially offset by a decline in consumer spending, especially on big-ticket

10、items. credit to debit cards as consumers grow more cautious and banks limit credit lines.Nonperforming loans will weigh on the ability to generate future growth. The expected long-term run of rock-bottom interest rates will affect both deposit holdings and returns.Revenues from ConsumerFinanceandOt

11、herLoans AreExpected toTake the Biggest HitGlobal retail-banking revenue pools ($billions)2,5862,3712,2542,132WorldwideInvestmentsChecking depositsOtherdepositsPayments and transactionsConsumerfinance and otherloansMortgages2019QuickSlow recoveryDeeperimpactrebound2024E2024E2024ESource: BCGsbankingp

12、ools,September2020.Note: Because of rounding, not all numbers add up to the totals shown.MoreCustomers AreThe pandemic is incentivizing customers5 shift away from traditional branches to digital channels. According to BCGs most recent retail-banking survey, an average of 13% of respondents in 16 maj

13、or markets used online banking for the first time during the pandemic (12% for mobile)and in some markets, the percentage is substantially higher. Cashless payments are also receiving a major boost during the crisis. More than 20% of respondents told us that they have increased their use of digital

14、payment solutions, such as those provided by internet banking and third-party apps, and more than 10% said the same about credit and debit cards.BecomingMore DigitalMore QuicklyBranches are feeling the brunt. Our survey showed a 12% net reduction in the use of branches during the pandemic. Lockdowns

15、 and social-distancing regulations restricted access to branches and forced many customers to sign up for online or mobile banking for the first time, and most of them liked what they found.More important, the shift to digital channels is likely to be permanent. On the basis of our survey, we expect

16、 an additional net increase of 19% in mobile banking and an additional net reduction of 26% in branch usage after the pandemic. Less digitally adept banks may soon find that both new and more-experienced users choose online banking over visiting branches. The danger is that digitally aware customers

17、 will defect to more digitally advanced incumbent competitors or nimble and innovative challengers.Net change in channel usage during the pandemic (%)1-2Net change in expected channel usage after the pandemic (%)3*4Remote channels-11COVID-19 Is Driving Increased Use of Digital ChannelsDigital channe

18、lsMobileappsOnline bankingRemote advisorsContact centers-14Physical channelsATMs0Branches-26-12Source: BCGs Retail Banking Excellence COVID-19 Pulse 2020.xNet change is the percentage of respondents who increased their usage minus the percentage of respondents who decreased their usage.2Survey state

19、ment: Foreach channel thatyou used in the lastthree weeks, please describe yourshift in the usage compared with lastyear.3Net change is the percentage of respondents who expectto increase their usage minus the percentage of respondents who expectto decrease or discontinue their usage.4Surveyquestion

20、: How likely are you to use the following channels postCOVID-19?17 Front-to-Back Digital Value Streams22 | A Stacked Operating Model29 | TheNeed to Act NowMany Customers Are Using Digital Channelsforthe FirstTimeRespondents who enrolled in online banking for the first time because of the COVID-19 cr

21、isis (%)33%33%Respondents who enrolled in mobile banking for the first time because of the COVID-19 crisis (%)32%32%Source: BCGs Retail Banking ExcellenceCOVID-19Pulse2020.Note: Percentages were rounded.iSurvey question: Haveyou enrolled (signed up) in online and mobile banking forthe firsttime as a

22、 result ofthe COVID-19 crisis?As we observed in our 2019 retail banking report, banks5 traditional competitive advantages, including large bases of sticky customers, are coming under significant pressure. Digital networks are undermining physical networks, role as a barrier to entry, threatening leg

23、acy banks5 captive pools of data and scale in their markets.Our survey shows that the coronavirus has accelerated this trend, and customers are reconsidering all kinds of behaviors and business relationships. While a healthy number of survey respondents continue to have trust in their banks, a signi

24、ficant percentageabout one-quartersaid that they are planning to switch banks during next six months.Younger customers are especially likely to make a change, and they are also more likely to be comfortable depositing money into digital banks.Customers,EspeciallyYoungerOnes, Are Willing to Switch Ba

25、nksResponses by age group (%)Respondents whose trust in their bank has not changed since the start of the pandemicchangechangeLess trust18-3435-5455Respondents who are planning to switch to another bank during the next six monthsRespondents who are planning to switch to another bank during the next

26、six monthsResponses by age group (%)24%24%54Responses by age group (%)33%Respondents who feel comfortable depositing money in a digital bank3Source: BCGs Retail Banking ExcellenceCOVID-19Pulse2020.iSurveyquestion: HasyourtrustinyourbankchangedsincethestartoftheCOVID-19crisis?2Surveyquestion: Do you

27、intend to switch your main banking providerin the nextsix months?3Survey question: On a scale of 1 to 5, how safe do you feel with a traditional bankvs. a digital bank (a bank without branches)? 1 = I feel safest putting my money in a traditional bank; 5 = Tm comfortable with putting my money with a

28、 digital bank. Respondents who chose4 or 5 were classified asfeeling comfortable depositing money in a digital bank.A NewParadig m forThe bank of the future cannot operate with the cost structure of the present and remain competitive. Our analysis shows that the operating costs of the best banks are

29、 already about 40% lower than those of the typical bank, and they have roughly 50% fewer employees. These banks make larger and more sales, and they do so with branches that are less transaction focused. Specifically, the top banks open 69% more accounts per branch full-time equivalent (FTE) and con

30、duct 80% fewer branch transactions per customer, compared with the typical bank.The best banks run more efficient contact centers, with representatives handling, on average, 10% more inbound calls than those at the typical bank. The top banks also handle 65% of calls without a human involved, compar

31、ed with 45% for the typical bank.CostsThe Best Banks Already Operate Far MoreEfficiently Than the Industry as a WholeRetail bank with 4 million customersCost base ($millions), indexedFull-time equivalents, indexed100 39% 100 -53%Typical bankEfficientbanksTypical bankEfficient banksFront office| Bran

32、chesContact centers ATMsMiddleoffice.Onlineand| mobile bankingSales, channel,Source: BCGs Retail Banking Excellence COVID-19 Pulse 2020.Note: Based on ouranalysisof a group of leading global banks. ATM = automated teller machine.includes risk,compliance, and legalfunctions.2The average forthetop 25%

33、 ofbanks in the sample.But even the best banks focus their digitization efforts on certain aspects of the business and do not excel across the board. They are only at the early stages of applying advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence, to their business and the entire value chain.A t

34、heoretical bank of the future that is modeled on the most efficient functions of todays most efficient banks (the top 25% of our sample by function) could operate with costs that are 69% lower than those of todays typical bank. In practice, of course, no single bank will be this efficient across the

35、 organization. But banks that are not planning now for a major step change in their cost structure will find themselves at an unsustainable competitive disadvantageperhaps sooner than they think.Front-to-BackDigitalStreamsValueespite years of investments in digitization, most retail banks have strug

36、gled to improve the customer experience, grow revenue, build their sustainablecapabilities, reduce costs, and enhance the quality of their controls. The main problem is typically a lack of coordina- tion. Many digital initiatives take place in silos, resulting in limited, isolated, incremental chang

37、es and stranded or duplicated efforts.A New Integrated ApproachRetail banks can achieve their goals by identifying value streamsa series of value-adding activities that they can undertake to produce a result that customers want-and redesigning, digitizing, and integrating them from front to back.ATy

38、pical Retail Bank Has FewerThan Ten Potential Value StreamsJoiningBorrowingGetting funds fastSavingOpeninganewBuyingaMaking, largeMsoMn 舞的鸣品 ds加硼骑黜麻g,paymgbmsandnW惊se,sucha疆碱福徜%部即Mchasupdat端ccountRequesting serviceOptimizing IV:占ncia) vjolbeingMaking Iransactions Addressing fraud and disputesSource:

39、 BCG analysis.Successfully implementing an integrated approach requires: Bold Business Goals. Setting ambitious targets, rather than objectives for incremental improvements, and using end-to-end metrics, instead of siloed functional or service-level agreement metrics, help ensure visibilityand coord

40、ination at the top of the organization. A Reimagined Customer Journey, End to End. Taking into account a customers full circumstances, including underlying nonfinancial needs, is important to iden- tifying relevant products and solutions. Banks should designprocesses and solutions from scratch (as o

41、pposed to trying to adapt those currently in use) and use digital and artificial intelligence (Al) tools to eliminate work and duplication of capabilities across products and customer segments. Simplified and Automated Processes, Optimizing processes across sales, operations, and service functions s

42、implifies work and eliminates rework. Improved Risk Controls. Building risk and compliance procedures into products and services when they are designed (rather than adding them later) is a best practice. Risk and compliance teams should jointly solve problems and develop user-friendly and efficient

43、control solutions. Transformed Technology. Tying technology, digital, and data investments to use cases eliminates duplications across silos and helps integrate the design and delivery of products and services to reduce waste. Integrated Teams. Bringing people from various functions together to work

44、 with a joint purpose and on a common value stream can avoid backlogs across digital and nondigital channels.In our experience, front-to-back value stream redesign can typically deliver a reduction in costs of 15% to 25% and an increase in the consumer advocacy or net promoter score (NPS) of 20 to 4

45、0 percentage points.TheValueStream Approach Creates Impact by Pulling Multiple LeversbOperational efficiencyCustomer experienceTop-line growthBenefits include: A higher level of customer engagement Increased customer loyalty Addressing customer dissatisfactionBenefits include: Lifting sales producti

46、vity Improved conversion rates Deeper relationships and more personalized offers Agreatershare of walletBenefits include: Better change delivery Greater productivity Increased automation Reduced cycle times Reduced IT and operatingexpensesNew sustainable capabilitiesBenefits include: Greater employe

47、e engagementFasterdecision making A cadre of experienced journey practitionersGreaterempowermentto working teams Exposure tonewwaysofworkingImproved controlsBenefitsinclude: Systems-driven checksGreater visibility of risks Enhanced complianceandrisk monitoring while reducing redundanciesProportionate controls,further upstream ratherthan downstream