世界能源转型展望—1.5℃路径.docx

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1、CONTENTMessage from the Director-General04About this Preview061 INTRODUCTION 07ENERGY TRANSITION FOR 1.5 09Ramping up electricity use 18System enhancement with green hydrogen and bioenergy . 25Phasing out fossil fuels 32Energy transition investment opportunities 36BROAD, HOLISTIC JUST TRANSITION POL

2、ICIES 43JOB CREATION AND WIDER BENEFITS 47CO-OPERATION BEYOND BORDERS 50205036.9GtCO2/yrSix components of the energy transition strategyC02 emissions abatement options between the 1.5 Scenario and PESAbatements Renewables (power and direct uses)O Energy conservation and e%ociency*O 日ectrificotion in

3、 end use sectors (direct)O Hydrogen and its derivatives* 礴CCS and CCll industrycBECCS and other carbon removal measuresNote: The abatement estimates in the figure between the PES and 1.5-S include energy (incl. bunkers) and process- related CO2 emissions along with emissions from non-energy use. Ren

4、ewables include renewable power generation sources and direct use of renewable heat and biomass. Energy efficiency includes measures related to reduced demand and efficiency improvements. Structural changes (e.g. relocation of steel production with direct reduced iron) and circular economy practices

5、 are part of energy efficiency. Electrification includes direct use of clean electricity in transport and heat applications. Hydrogen and its derivatives include use of hydrogen and synthetic fuels and feedstocks. CCS describes carbon capture and storage from point-source fossil-fuel-based and other

6、 emitting processes mainly in industry. BECCS and other carbon removal measures include bioenergy coupled with CCS (BECCS) in electricity and heat generation, and in industry and other measures in industry.BECCS = bioenergy with CCS; CCS = carbon capture and storage; CCU = carbon capture and utilisa

7、tion; GtCO2 = gigatonnes of carbon dioxide.Renewable energy plays a key role in the decarbonisation effort. Over 90% of the solutions in 2050 involve renewable energy through direct supply, electrification, energy efficiency, green hydrogen and BECCS. Fossil-based CCS has a limited role to play, and

8、 the contribution of nuclear remains at the same levels as today.The portfolio of technologies needed to decarbonise the world energy system mostly exists today, but innovative solutions are considered as well.IRENAs 1,5 Scenario considers todays proven technologies as well as innovative technologie

9、s that are still under development but which that could play a significant role by 2050. For example, in the case of renewable power generation technologies, offshore renewable energy such as floating offshore wind and emerging ocean energy technologies could support sustainable longterm development

10、 and drive a vibrant blue economy. On the end use side, innovation extends from electrified transport modes (e.g. long range electric trucks) and e-fuels (e.g. green hydrogenbased ammonia and methanol) to alternative production processes in manufacturing industry (e.g. direct reduced iron production

11、 using green hydrogen) as well as green buildings (e.g. smart buildings for energy management along with net zero buildings), Speculative solutions still at an early stage of development have been excluded.Electricity becomes the main energy carrier in energy consumption by 2050Breakdown of total fi

12、nal energy consumption (TFEC) by energy carrier in 2018 and 2050 (EJ) in the L5 Scenario (1.5-S)2018Total Final Energy ConsumptionRenewable sharein district heat:Total Final Energy ConsumptionRenewable share in hydrogen:Renewable share in district heat:2050 - Where we need to be (1.5-S)66%90%I 1%Coa

13、l16%Natural gas3% District heat3%Modern biomass8%Traditional biomass% Js8-qeMu二wo 5-so %218%Modern biomass12%Hydrogen (direct use and e-fuels)*District heatother renewables日 ectricity(Nuclear)TFEC (%)Electricity (Natural gas)37%Oil37%Oil21%Electricity (direct)4%51%Electricity (direct)25%Renewable sh

14、are in electricity25%Renewable share in electricity90%Renewable share in electricityNote: The figures above include only energy consumption, excluding non-energy uses. For electricity use, 25% in 2018 and 90% in 2050 is sourced from renewable sources; for district heating, these shares are 9% and 90

15、%, respectively; for hydrogen (direct use and e-fuels), the RE shares (i.e, green hydrogen) would reach 66% by 2050. The category Hydrogen (direct use and e-fuels),/ accounts for total hydrogen consumption (green and blue) and other e-fuels (e-ammonia and e-methanol), Electricity (direct) includes a

16、ll sources of generation: renewable, nuclear and fossil fuel based. DH = district heat; EJ = exajoules; RE = renewable energy.By 2050, electricity would be the main energy carrier with over 50% (direct) share of total final energy use - up from 21% today. By 2050, 90% of total electricity needs woul

17、d be supplied by renewables followed by 6% from natural gas and the remaining from nuclear.Renewables, electrification and energy efficiency are the main pillars of the energy transition.The most important synergy in the global energy transition is the combination of the increasing use of low-cost r

18、enewable power technologies and the wider adoption of electricity to power end-use applications in transport and heat. Electrification allows for the use of carbon-free electricity in place of fossil fuels in end-use applications, and significantly improves the overall efficiency of the energy servi

19、ce supply. Electric vehicles, for instance, are more efficient than internal combustion engines. Hydropower generation, as well, is more efficient than natural gas generation. This is important as reductions in energy intensity need to be accelerated.FIGURE 2 The global energy supply must become mor

20、e efficient and more renewableTPES, renewable and non-renewable share for 2018, PES and the1.5 Scenario (1.5-S) (EJ/yr)TPES (EJ/yr)900 TPES (EJ/yr)900 80070060050040030020010077%26%2050Where we are heading (PES)2050 Where we need to be (1.5-S)+31%lunHefKurrent!W -P .一 A，-jpolicies2018cceleraTed* -i

21、|*T J*1,*U揄宿雷fi茄冬求T *，0 -J.;energy；e%ociencv/ 浜二热告去二不 一 7 results jin cover?2,2%ucfioffr Renewable (Non-renewableNote: Data include international bunkers and non-energy use of fuels for the production of chemicals and polymers. 1.5-S = 1.5 Scenario; EJ/yr = exajoules per year PES = Planned Energy Sc

22、enario; TPES = total primary energy supply.The share of renewable energy in primary supply must grow from 14% in 2018 to 74% in 2050 in the 1.5 Scenario. This requires an eight-fold increase in annual growth rate, from 0.25 percentage points (pp) in recent years to 2 pp. Primary supply stabilises du

23、ring this period as a consequence of increased energy efficiency and the growth of renewables.A circular economy will play an increasingly important role in coming decades, contributing to reductions in energy consumption and increases in the efficiency of resource use, alongside improvements in mat

24、erial efficiency in industry due to innovations, Advanced digital and communication technologies with enhanced connectivity make it possible to optimise the transport of heavy goods (e.g. as efficiency enhancements in traffic control reduce the overall energy consumed by freight), Technology shifts

25、can also lead to the relocation of industrial processes, for instance, the shift from traditional carbon and energy-intensive steel production methods to green steel production methods with green hydrogen. Electric arc furnaces could enable a wider relocation of the iron and steel sector to places w

26、here relatively low-cost and abundant renewable electricity sources are available. Such shifts could also have geopolitical and global economic implications.11In the 1,5 Scenario, the rate of energy intensity improvement needs to increase to 3% per year from 1.2% in 2019.12 Electrification of end-us

27、e sectors utilising renewable power will play a significant role in the transition. In 2050, renewable energy (including renewable fuels and biomass-based carbon removal technologies), electrification and energy efficiency together offer over 90% of the mitigation measures needed to reduce CO2 emiss

28、ions in the 1,5 Scenario.RAMPING UP ELECTRICITY USEElectricity generation must expand three-fold by 2050, with renewables providing 90% of the total supply.In the 1,5 Scenario, rapid electrification of end-use applications along with the rise of green hydrogen production drive increased power demand

29、. By 2050, power generation triples compared to todays level, and renewables supply 90% of total electricity by 2050, up from 25% in 2018. Natural gas* (around 6%) and nuclear (around 4%) constitute the remainder. Wind and solar PV dominates the power generation mix, supplying 63% of total electrici

30、ty needs by 2050; other mature renewable technologies (e.g. hydro, bio-energy, geothermal and concentrated solar power) and emerging technologies (e.g. ocean energy) also play important roles to decarbonise the worlds electricity supply. This rise is being accelerated by declining costs: three-quart

31、ers of onshore wind and 40% of utility-scale solar PV commissioned in 2019 will produce during their lifetime electricity cheaper than any fossil-fuel alternatives, while three-quarters to four-fifths of the onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV commissioned in 2020 from auction or tenders had pri

32、ces lower than the cheapest new fossil fuel-fired option.13Renewable power installed generation capacity will need to expand from over 2 500 GW today14 to over 27 700 GW in 2050, more than a ten-fold increase. In annual terms, this requires more than 840 GW of new renewable capacity additions every

33、year, up from around 200 GW added in recent years. Solar PV and wind (onshore and offshore) would lead the way; solar PV power installed capacity would reach over 14 000 GW and wind (onshore and offshore) over 8 100 GW by 2050. Hydropower, biomass, geothermal, concentrated solar power and ocean tech

34、nologies account for the remaining renewable energy expansion.Solar thermal, geothermal and bioenergy will be needed to provide heat in industrial processes, cooking and space and water heating in buildings, and fuels for transport. In the 1,5 Scenario the direct use of renewable energy would need t

35、o grow to 77 exajoules (EJ) in 2050 compared to 44 EJ in 2018. Bioenergy makes up a large share of renewable energy use today and will remain a significant source of fuel, both in industry and transport. In the 1,5 Scenario, the share of final energy met with modern forms of bioenergy increases to 1

36、7% in 2050 from around 1.5% today. Priorities for bioenergy will include the production of advanced biofuels for the aviation and shipping sectors, the production and use of renewable fuels and feedstock for the chemical industry, and some use for heating in specific industry sub-sectors. In additio

37、n, BECCS will be used in power and heat production and some industrial processes (e.g. cement production), IRENAs analysis finds that the level of primary biomass can be harvested sustainably without causing deforestation or other negative land-use changes.15 However, robust frameworks for regulatio

38、n, certification and monitoring need to be put in place globally to ensure that biomass supply is environmentally, socially and economically sustainable.* In the power sector, natural gas would have a role in managing demand fluctuations and providing operational reserves.FIGURE 5 Renewables will do

39、minate the power generation mixElectricity generation and capacity by source, 2018, 2050 (TWh /yr and GW/yr) in the l.5 ScenarioElectricity generation (TWh)90 000 Electricity capacity (GW)75 00060 00045 00030 0002018)RE:：25 九VRE;10%15 0000050RE:90%NRE:：63%：2018Where we needto be (1.5-S)35 00030 0002

40、5 00020 00015 00010 0005 000020501 rE:92%L VRE:;74%；2018Where we need to be (1.5-S) Coal OilNatural GasNuclear Coal OilNatural GasNuclear Hydro(j Biomass(excl. pumped) (solid)Biomass (waste)。BiogasSolar PV:。Wind o | shore7CSPWind onshoreX JX. -x Geothermal Tidal/Wave Q HydrogenNote: 1.5-S = 1.5 Scen

41、ario; CSP = concentrated solar power; GW/yr = gigawatts per year; PES = Planned Energy Scenario; PV = photovoltaic; RE = renewable energy; TWh/yr = terawatt hours per year; VRE = variable renewable energy.日ectricity generation grows three-fold from 26 380 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2018 to close to 78

42、700 TWh in 2050. The share of renewables would grow to 90% in 2050 from 25% in 2018. Following a sharp decrease in coal generation over the current decade, by 2040 coal generation would be a quarter of todays level and eventually would be phased out by 2050. The remaining 10% of total power generati

43、on in 2050 would be supplied by natural gas (around 6%) and nuclear (around 4%). Notably, variable renewable sources like wind and solar would grow to 63% of all generation in 2050, compared to 7% in 2018.Power systems will need to become much more flexible os the variable renewable energy (VRE) sha

44、re on average would reach 63% of global power generation.Flexibility in power systems is a key enabler for integrating high shares of VRE - the backbone of the electricity system of the future. By 2O3Oz the VRE share in total power generation would reach 42%, By 2050, 73% of the installed capacity a

45、nd 63% of all power generation would come from variable resources (solar PV and wind), up from 15% of the installed capacity and 7% of power generation globally today. Such a level is manageable with current technologies leveraged by further innovations.There are several best practices in terms of V

46、RE integration from countries around the world. For example, in 2019, the share of VRE in the power generation mix in Denmark was over 50% (47% wind and 3% solar PV);16 it was over 40% in Lithuania and 34% in Germany (23% wind and 11% solar PV).17 Systemic innovations are needed that go beyond enabl

47、ing technologies to integrate innovations in business models, markets and regulations, and system operations to unlock the flexibility of the power system and integrate rising shares of VRE. IRENA has identified 30 flexibility options that can be combined into comprehensive solutions, taking into ac

48、count the national and regional power system specifics.1819 Moreover, IRENA has been analysing how power system organisational structures (including markets) can be redesigned to foster and support renewable-based energy systems.20 As more countries adopt ambitious policy targets of very high or 100% renewable power systems, adopting such a systemic approach to innovation will become more important.The future smart power system, largely