赢得核心（即将成为）紧凑型SUV细分市场.docx

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1、COMPACTSUVSEGMENPREFACEFor years the compact sedan has been core to Chinas PV market. IVIany carmakers deployed product launch strategies around this segment, creating a diversified, multi-layered and multi-faceted product footprint utilizing global platforms and locally-developed concepts covering

2、mainstream/niche high, mid- and low-end segments.However, over the 2016-2020 period, this segment has significantly shrunk as compact SU Vs picked up momentum, putting many carmakers in a tough spot. Is the compact SUV segment becoming the next core segment of the PV market? Who are really the core

3、customers in this segment, and how should carmakers tackle this segment?We at YRI have also pondered these questions and would like to offer our own perspectives.Chinese brand compact SUVs: seizeolder small-town male trade-in buyers to avoid impact from shrinking small-town youth buyersThe share of

4、small-town and big city middle-aged buyers, primarily men, are expected to increase from 30% in 2021 to 40% in 2026. First-time male buyers that helped increase the size of Chinas PV market over the past decade will turn into trade-in buyers over the next decade. This cohort of buyers will become th

5、e largest buying group over the next five years, contributing to about 37% of overall PV sales;The so-called older male trade-in buyers should be a top target customer group for compact SUVs for the segment to maintain its status as the core PV segment;Compact SUVs especially new models must cater t

6、o the needs of older middle-aged buyers to hold their ground.Evolution of male/female PV buyers by city/age2014201420202026Small-Town Middle-Aged (Elderly)Big City Middle-Aged (Elderly)Small-Town Middle-Aged (Elderly)Big City Middle-Aged (Elderly)22%18%19%11%18% I 7%Small-TownYouth11% I 9%8%Smoll-To

7、wnYouth12% I 8%Big City YouthSource: Yiche Online Survey+Yiche Big DataSample size use family as a unit, female members are treated as re-purchase customersChinese Brand Compact SUV End-User Sales 20072020 (10,000 units)Chinese Brand Compact SUV End-User Sales 20072020 (10,000 units)Changan CS75 PLU

8、S & Haval Big DogEnd-User Sales(10,000 units)350 350 Source: Registration/Compulsory Insurance DataYiche Research InstituteKey to GWM,Chang/an or Geely being on top in 2021-2026: winning the small-town trade-in war in compact SUV segmentGWM, Changan and Geely are all actively expanding their footpri

9、nts in the compact SUV segment: GWM is solidifying its leadership in the mainstream sub-segment with the 3 rd-Gen Haval H6, complementing it with models like the F7 & F5, seizing the entry sub-segment with the M6, expanding the crossover sub-segment with the F7X and Big Dog, gaining share in the hig

10、h-end sub-segment with the VV5 & VV6, and testing the waters in the off-road sub-segment with the Tank 300; Changan is solidifying its position in the mainstream sub-segment with the PLUS versions of its CS family, adding to its entry sub-segment with upgraded Oshan series, and testing the waters in

11、 the crossover sub-segment with the UNI-T; Geely offers the mainstream Boyue, entry-level Vision X6, crossovers ICON & Emgrand GS and high-end LYNK & CO models;GWM, Changan and Geely are pretty much offering a full suite of compact SUV products, but lack strategic direction. Its more for the sake of

12、 filling up gaps in various sub-segments;The compact SUV segment remains as the core battleground for Chinese brands in 2021-2026, but their strategic focus should turn away from first-time buyers to trade-in buyers. This is new to all Chinese brands. Second-tier Chinese brands such as Chery, GAC Tr

13、umpchi and Roewe could catch up with frontrunners if they can seize opportunities from older male small-town trade-in buyers;New models like the Tank 300, if they can successfully attract older male small-town/big city re-purchase buyers, older female big city re-purchase buyers and older male big c

14、ity trade-in buyers, will be icing on the cake.Top 10 Chinese Brand Ender-User Sales in 2020(10,000 units) End-User Sales YOY % Change End-User Sales YOY % ChangeTop 10 Chinese Brand Compact SUV End-User Sales in 2020(10,000 units)Top 10 Chinese Brand Compact SUV End-User Sales in 2020(10,000 units)

15、 End-User Sales YOY % Change End-User Sales YOY % ChangeASource: Compulsory Insurance DataTop 3 Chinese Brand Compact SUV Product MatrixTop 3 Chinese Brand Compact SUV Product Matrix GWM Geely Chang 飞nHigh-EndHigh-EndMainstream SUV01Crossover SUVOff -Road SUVMainstreamEntryOshan X7Oshan X5Foreign br

16、and compact SUVs:aim for older big city male trade-in buyersCompact sedans still account for the majority of sales of foreign brands in China. But they are facing a dilemma of a shrinking compact sedan segment since 2016 and it will only get worse over the next five years;Foreign brand compact SUVs

17、targeted at big city trade-in buyers are benefiting from the fact that small-town youths are flocking to big cities and big city youths are getting older. Foreign brand compact SUV sales therefore skyrocketed in 2019-2020, with end-user sales surpassing 2 million units thanks to star products such a

18、s the Honda Breeze launched at the end of 2019 and Toyota Wildlander at the beginning of 2020. Foreign brand compact sedans, however, saw a significant decline in market share. VWs SUV offensive in particular helped the German brand gain market share;The big city middle-age buyer cohort will expand

19、in 2021-2026, and foreign brands should focus their efforts on winning the older big city male trade-in buyers in the compact SUV segment.Evolution of male/female PV buyers by city/age2014201420202026Small-Town Middle-Aged (Elderly)Big City Middle-Aged (Elderly)18% I 7%11%9)，20%Small-TownYouth19% I

20、11%Big City YouthSource: Yiche Online Survey+Yiche Big DataSample size use family as a unit, female members are treated as re-purchase customersSource: Yiche Online Survey+Yiche Big DataSample size use family as a unit, female members are treated as re-purchase customersForeign Brand Compact SUV End

21、-User Sales 2007-2020 (10,000 units)End-User Sales of Toyota Wildlander & Honda Breeze(10,000 units)Source: Registration/Compulsory Insurance DataSource: Registration/Compulsory Insurance DataYiche Research InstituteKey to I/VI4Honda or Toyota being on top in 2021-2026: winning the big city trade-in

22、war in compact SUV segmentVW remains the leading brand by far in China despite a 16.13% fall in end-user sales to just 2.63 million units in 2020.Toyota and Honda are both strengthening their compact sedan lineup in 2021-2022 to challenge VWs leadership in that segment, but will likely face some set

23、back as that segments volume continues to wither;Car consumption over the next five years will turn from a first-time buyer-focused to trade-in/re-purchase buyer-focused market, and away from small-town markets toward big-city markets. Foreign brands will turn their strategic focus from compact seda

24、ns to compact SUVs;Honda, Toyota and VW all have adequate footprint in the compact SUV segment but lack strategic direction. They have not expanded out their product footprint based on Chinese user evolution. Brands like Nissan, Hyundai, Kia, Buick and Ford that seek to turn around their fortunes in

25、 China should grasp new opportunities presented by groups such as older big city male trade-in buyers and actively offer compact SUVs catered to that specific segment;This leads to something that foreign brands can ponder: when first-time buyers dominated the market, all foreign brands had to do was

26、 simply localize an existing model or at best tweak it for local needs. Now that trade-in/re -purchase buyers dominate the market, how can foreign brands make that upgrade from “Made in China” to “Created in China?”Foreign Brand End-User Sales in 2020(10,000 units) End-User Sales End-User Sales YOY

27、% ChangeForeign Brand Compact SUV End-User Sales in 2020(10,000 units) End-User Sales YOY % Change60 100% End-User Sales YOY % Change60 100%Source: Compulsory Insurance DataTop 3 Foreign Brand Compact SUV Product Matrix VW Honda ToyotaMainstream SUVCrossover SUVOff -Road SUVHigh-EndHigh-EndMainstrea

28、mEntrySecond priority for compact SUVs in 2021-2026: seize older female re-purchase buyersMost families purchased their first cars over the past decade with men dominating the purchases. Over the coming decade, these men will become trade-in buyers while more female re-purchase buyers, especially ol

29、der (middle-aged) ones, will flock to the market. Male first-time buyers are usually in their 20s, while female re-purchase buyers are usually in their 30s to 40s;Male trade-in buyers will become a new driving force of the market, so will female re-purchase buyers, who will likely contribute 24% of

30、the market by 2026. Older female re-purchase buyers, in particular, will be key to winning the compact SUV segment and ensure that it becomes the core segment of the PV market.Evolution of male/female PV buyers by city/age2014201420202026Small-ToA/n Middle-Aged (Elderly)Big City Middle-Aged (Elderly

31、)18% I 7%11% I 9%Small-TownYouth19% I 11%Big City YouthEvolution of male/female PV owners by first-time/trade-in/re-purchase buyer group Re-purchase Female Buyersr Other Female BuyersMale Buyers201420202026First-TimeTrade-in Re-purchaseFirst-TimeTrade-in Re-purchaseFirst-Time Trade-in Re-purchase11%

32、13%37%24%7%8%Source: Yiche Online Survey+Yiche Big DataYiche Research InstituteSample size use family as a unit, female members are treated as re-purchase customersLuxury brand compact SUVs: aim for older big city female re-purchase buyersThe share of vehicles purchased by big city female buyers inc

33、reased from 3% in 2014 to 9% in 2020. The older female re-purchase buyers within this group were key to driving the compact SUV segment, with end-user sales reaching nearly 450,00 units in 2020;The share of vehicles purchased by big city female buyers will further increase to 18% by 2026. The older

34、female re-purchase buyers within this group will continue to spur sales of luxury compact SUVs.Evolution of male/female PV buyers by city/age2014201420202026Small-Town Middle-Aged (Elderly)Big City Middle-Aged (Elderly)Small-Town Middle-Aged (Elderly)Big City Middle-Aged (Elderly)18%20%Small-TownYou

35、th7%11%9%22% I 18%19%11%Big City Youth19% I 11%8%Small-TownYouth12% I 8%Big City YouthSource: Yiche Online Survey+Yiche Big DataSample size use family as a unit, female members are treated as re-purchase customersForeign Brand Compact SUV End-UserSales 20072020 (io.ooo units)Foreign Brand Compact SU

36、V End-UserSales 20072020 (io.ooo units)Select Luxury Compact SUV End-UserSales (10,000 units)0.8 404035302520151050Source: Registration/Compulsory Insurance DataYiche Research InstituteCompact SUV sales to fall to 4.5M by 2026, but remains core PV segment;trade-in/re-purchase shares to rise to 50% &

37、 15% respectivelyThe share of PVs sold to first-time buyers will continue to fall over the next five years. That proportion in the compact SUV segment was over 50% in 2020, but will also likely fall as the share of PVs sold to trade-in and re-purchase buyers increase. If carmakers can increase their

38、 footprint in products dedicated to trade-in and re-purchase buyers, it will alleviate downward pressure in the first-time buyer segment;Based on our assessment of opportunities & challenges, we expect annual sales of compact SUVs to fall slightly to 4.5 million units by 2026, but trade-in buyers wi

39、ll account for 50% of sales;The strategic focus in 2021-2026 for carmakers selling 500,000 vehicles a year or more and rely on compact sedans should turn toward compact SUVs, especially trade-in/re-purchase buyers of compact SUVs.Compact SUV End-User Sales 2007-2020(10,000 units)80070060050040030020

40、010005004003002001000Compact SUVs2014Re-20202026Re-First-TimepurcFirst-Time Trade-in hase79%19% 2%pureTrade-in hase53%42%5%First-TimepureTrade-in hase38%50%15%Source: Registration/Compulsory Insurance DataOlder male trade-in/female re-purchase buyers: core target groupsfor compact SUVs in 2021-2026T

41、he drastic changes in the share of first-time, trade-in and re-purchase buyers for compact SUVs in 2021 -2026 are mainly a result of huge changes in the demographics of Chinas vehicle buying population. The average age of buyers in 2020 was about 35, but that will rise to 40 by 2026. Buyers primaril

42、y consisting of middle-aged male trade-in and female re-purchase buyers will become core target customers of compact SUVs;Most of the compact SUVs currently on the market are still targeted at young, male and first-time buyers. Carmakers are still a bit bashful about launching compact SUVs catered t

43、he needs of middle-aged male/female buyers. They must act swiftly without hesitation.201820222027Buyer Age Distribution96&up91-9586-90Buyer Age Distribution (est.)Buyer Age Distribution (est.)81-8576-8071-7566-7061-6556-6051-5546-5041-4536-4031-3526-3021-2516-2011-156-100-5Source: End User SalesTrad

44、e-in Buyers (Target older males)Re-purchase Buyers(Target older females)First-Time Buyer(Huge decline in young first-time buyers)Compact SUVs could become top PV segment in China in 2021Thanks to the emergence of post-80s young families looking to buy their first cars and a disposable family income

45、of around only RMB 100,000, the compact sedan market took off from 2007 to 2016, rising from annual sales volume of under 2 million units to more than 8 million units; As the birth and marriage rates of the post-90s generation fell sharply and average selling prices increased to above RMB 150,000, t

46、hough, annual sales of compact sedans focused on first-time buyers, interior space and price promotions fell over the next four years to less than 6 million units in 2020. Joint ventures such as Changan-Ford, DPCA, SAIC-GM, FAW-VW, SAIC-VW, Beijing-Hyundai and Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia that relied on this

47、strategy were significantly impacted as sales at some of these companies fell off a diff. The compact SUV segment wasn ? that strong either, but thanks to multi-purpose capabilities, feature upgrades and attractive designs, annual sales remained at roughly 5 million units;Share of End User Sales by Vehicle Type 2020The share of the compact sedan segment fell to 28.46% in 2020 while that of the compact SUV segment rose to nearly 25%. Due to factors such as shrinking population of young people, consumpti