新冠疫情对旅游业的打击可能导致全球经济损失4万亿美元.docx

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1、Acknowledgements -b_ _ _ _ ，L-4I一当甯a笠金41；奏1 X _上1 11 L 11 一 一久TOT- 二，一 , 扁三晚二r病, 一 ，,R摩舒： i r ，/士 / /,一4-八4 一也一心F0w/4IHb*1*-*H-*jt* 、纥J 1 ”l一 、y r制- 4;.5555眄也费a# jp一 一 、.、 &w- v a - -“ rA j-q _ j .、Appendix ITable of ContentsThe world is divided into 38 economies and regions, reflecting available da

2、ta, and match these regions with UN WTO estimates of inbound tourist expenditure for 2018 and the estimated reductions in international arrivals (UNWTO Tourism Dashboard). The direct and indirect impacts on consumption, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment in each of the 65 goods and services

3、 sectors in each region can be estimated.The standard GTAP model is used and the 2014 database is projected forward to 2019, the last pre-COVID year. Our simulations assume each economy is the same size as in 2019, although it is acknowledged that some economies may not have returned to pre-COVID le

4、vels, while other may have grown by several per cent.Importantly, the standard labour market assumption sector is modified to allow for unemployment in the tourism sector. Unskilled workers put out of work from the downturn in tourist arrivals will most likely not find employment elsewhere. The adju

5、stment occurs in employment rather than wages. It is assumed that skilled workers and capital can be re-employed elsewhere, although this drives down wages and the return on capital. Details are described in UNCTAD (2020a).The results presented here are based on simulations that capture the effects

6、of tourism reduction only, not any other policies such as economic stimulus programmes that may have reduced the actual impact of the change in tourism. This allows to isolate the effects. Limitations stem from the data availability, specifically tourist arrivals for some countries, tourist data in

7、GTAP, l-O tables and vaccination rates. Tourism services are not modeled as an export in GTAP which limits the possibility to substitute domestic and international tourists.TABLE OF CONTENTCascading effectsA feature of Computable General Equilibrium modelling is intersectoral effects. This means a r

8、eduction in output in one sector leads to a reduction in demand for inputs from other sectors, and so on down the supply chain. It also means that labour and capital no longer needed in one sector can be re-allocated into other sectors. If there is a fall in demand for labour and capital, wages and

9、rates of return need to fall or employment falls. Idle factors of production lead to a fall in output, measured by GDP at the national level.Our analysis shows that depending on employment effects, the indirect effects of a drop in tourism receipts increase the cost.A dropin global tourist receipts

10、of$1trillion leads toaillA lossin real GDP of$2.5 trillionx2.5decreaseThis ratio varies greatly across countries, from one to three or four-fold. This depends on the backward linkages in the tourism sector, including the unemployment of unskilled labour.The effect is somewhat greater for developing

11、countries, as seen in figure 4, as some developing countries are much more dependent on tourism.TABLE OF CONTENTA partial recovery, from a loss of 74 per cent to 63 per cent, reduces the loss in global GDP by 30 per cent to $1,696 billion. With the benefit of vaccinations being more pronounced in so

12、me countries than others, losses are reduced in most developed countries but are worsened in developing countries where the absence of widespread vaccinations keeps tourists away. At a regional level, there are significant differences between scenarios 2 and 3, but the major beneficiaries in absolut

13、e terms are the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. These countries have high levels of tourists and high vaccination rates. Developing countries will carry the greatest burden. Globally, the blow to international tourism given by COVID-19 has caused a loss in GDP of

14、more than $4 trillion only for the years 2020 and 2021, if indirect effects are taken into account as our estimates suggest.Figure 4 As tourism falls world GDP takes a hit in 2021,3 alternative scenariosDeveloping countriesSCENARIO SCENARIO SCENARIO Source: UNCTAD based on GTAP simulations.Note: Dro

15、p in global tourist sales are $934 billion in scenario 1, $695 billion in scenario 2 and $676 billion in scenario 3The estimated GDP effects of the observed loss in tourism receipts are shown in figure 5 and in more detail in Appendix. For example, international tourism contributes about five per ce

16、nt of the GDP in Turkey and the country suffered a 69 per cent fall in international tourists in 2020. The fall in tourism demand is estimated at $33 billion and this leads to losses in sectors that supply tourism, such as food, beverages, retail trade, communications and transport. The total fall i

17、n output is $93 billion, about three times the initial shock. The decline in tourism alone contributes to a real GDP loss of about 9 per cent. This decline was partly offset in reality by fiscal measures to stimulate the economy.Figure 5 I Estimated losses in GDP by region from reduction in tourism

18、(Percentage)CountryRegionTurkey-9,1Ecuador-),0South Africa-8,1Ireland-5,9.Switzerland-4,3 Republic of Korea-3,8 Australia/New Zealand-3,7 United Kingdom-3,2 France-3,2 Norway-2,5 Argentina-2,4 1Germany24.Colombia-2,3SiUnited States of America-2,1BChina/Hong Kong SAR-2,0aIndia-1,9l*lCanada-1,9hlMexic

19、o-1,6Russian Federation-1,5*Japan-1,0 |Brazil-0,6 |11Nigeria-0,3 |-1,8 j-2,1|17|-2|-171-1,3|-171-2|-1,51-1,1|-1,4 |-1,7|-1,41-1,7|-1,4 |1|-1,2 |-1,3|-UI-1.3|-07 |-0,8|-0,5-0,61-0,2-0,21Central America -11,9 -7.5111East Africa-9,3-67,9South East Asia-8,4-5,6 11-7,1North Africa-5,-6,4 Rest of SACU-6.3

20、 -4.4 M-5,3 Rest of Asia-5.8 M-4,1 Xt-3,1 East European Union47 -3,3 I-3,7 West Africa-4,6 M-3,1 -3,9 Rest of the World-3,9 -27 -3,2 East and Central Europe-3,5 -2,5 Middle East-3.1 -2,2 25 Rest of South Asia-2,8 -21-2,4 North European UnionCaribbean-2,5 18.-2BMediterranean Europe-2,3 -1,61-1,4|Rest

21、 of South America19.-1,4 |-1,5 IWorld1-2,7 1,9 -2 ITABLE OF CONTENTSource: UNCTAD based on GTAP simulation. Scenario 1. Simulations capture effects of tourism reduction only, not other policies such as economic stimulus programmes.Labour market effectsThe estimated losses in employment of unskilled

22、labour due to the fall in tourist arrivals is shown in figure 6. The losses vary according to the proportion of unskilled labour employed in the tourism industry and the extent to which the tourism sector is hit in a specific economy. There is a somewhat similar fall in wages and rates of return for

23、 skilled labour and capital.Figure 6 I. Estimated loss in employment of unskilled labour by economy and region from reduction in tourism (Percentage)CountrySimRegionTABLE OFJ CONTENT心Ecuador-8.9 uaaHiIreland -9,4ii ukm爱1;South Africa11-8.1 II U!UI i e3Turkey-9,8| -8,61:Republic of Korea-1-6,4 M-4,6

24、II 5 Switzerland-6,1 -4,4 II -5.3 MAustralia/New Zealand-5,9.-4,3 II-5；2.1iUnited Kingdom-3,6 II 20 器1 Norway-4,7 -3,4 IIIIFrance-4,4 -3,2 iII -3,8 1iGermany-3,6 -2.6 |II 18.Colombia-3,5 一山,5.II -3,1 Argentina-3,4 -2,5 II ，2,9.1*1Canada-3H2,2 Ii15|ggUnited States of America -3 2,2 IIl 14.aChina/Hong

25、 Kong SAR-2,9 :2,1 J|i -2,5 Russian Federation25 -1,8 |II -2,2 14Mexico-2,2 I-1,6 |l 18.AIndia7I12 I|l15.Japan-0,8 |-0,6II -071念Brazil-0,3 -0.2II-0,3 |IINigeria0,2 V0,10,1Central AmericaSouth East AsiaNorth AfricaRest of SACUEast AfricaRest of AsiaEast European UnionMiddle EastWest AfricaEast and Ce

26、ntral EuropeNorth European Union CaribbeanRest of South America Mediterranean Europe Rest of South Asia15.61 -9.8 -13J i| wI -971 -10.4I-8,8I 75-8,6一 .5,6 -I -7.2 I -3,9 -6,2 1-4,4 I -5 -5,1 1-3,5 I -4,1 -5,1 1-3,4 I -4,4 -4,5 1-3,2 I4-4,1 1-3I29-2,9 121 J-2,5 -2,3 1“J-1.8|16 J12I-0,7 |-0,8-0,6-0,7

27、|Source: UNCTAD based on GTAP simulations.Simulations capture effects of tourism reduction only, not other policies such as economic stimulus programmes.If labour and capital could be readily re-employed in other industries, the overall impact of a fall in demand for international tourism would be s

28、omewhat less than its direct effects. The loss of tourism receipts would be partially offset by output in other sectors. Obviously, in tourist dependent developing countries this is difficult to do in the short run, but more achievable in the longer run. With tourism not expected to fully recover un

29、til perhaps 2023 the policy question is whether and how to support the sector until that time.-50COaq。?,而 s*3i ml?二二二-ui mi hiB100-120K million jobs are at stake in 2021Policy implicationsTourism is a major economic sector and has a particular socio-economic importance, as it employs many women and

30、young people and provides a livelihood to many informal workers in developing countries. The current pandemic has a devastating effect for the tourism sector. UN WTO (2021a) estimates that 100 - 120 million direct tourism jobs are at stake. Taking the impact on closely linked sectors into account, t

31、he drop in international arrivals has caused an estimated loss of about $2.4 trillion in GDP in 2020 and it is possible that a similar loss occurs again this year. More positive scenarios for this year with a stronger rebound in tourism in the second half still show a loss of about $1.7 to 1.8 trill

32、ion compared to 2019 levels. The recovery will depend to a large extent on the uptake of vaccines, the removal and coordination among countries of travel restrictions and the rebuilding of travelers5 confidence.Three policy dimensions are important.First, bringing tourism back on track including in

33、developing countries. Much needs to be done to restore the confidence of travellers, who are concerned about health, and the risk of cancelled travel plans and becoming stranded overseas. Vaccinations seem the most important element.So far, the vaccine rollout has varied greatly between countries, f

34、rom almost complete to hardly started. Rolling out the vaccine globally as soon as possible is an economic priority. Vaccinating 40 per cent of the global population by years end and 60 per cent by mid-2022 is an aspirational goal, but difficult to achieve and could cost $50 billion, according to In

35、ternational Monetary Fund, World Health Organization, World Bank and World Trade Organization (IMF, 2021) estimates. Nonetheless, the estimated benefits far exceed the costs. While vaccination is incomplete and herd immunity not achieved, stepping up coordination and communication on travel requirem

36、ents is critical. For example, the UNWTO and the airline industry body International Air Transport Association (IATA) collaborate on a destination tracker. The European Union digital COVID certificate is a major advance in this sense, and IATA is also promoting a travel pass to facilitate the inclus

37、ion of travel documents such as vaccination certificates and test results. Other measures to facilitate travel could include cheap, fast and reliable testing. Agreed protocols for testing on departure may remove the need for quarantine on arrival. Common standards are required so that destination co

38、untries accept testing in the source countries.TABLE OF CONTENTSecond, it is important to mitigate the socio-economic impacts on livelihoods. Developed countries have used fiscal measures to support tourism businesses and workers. This is essentially borrowing from the future, and while helpful as a

39、 transitionary measure, incurs a debt that will need to be repaid at some stage. Where the support is for otherwise healthy businesses, it is likely to pay off. This strategy is a challenge for most developing countries in particular where tourism is large. Social security nets do often not exist, a

40、nd informality is high. Workers should be protected rather than specific jobs in declining sectors, for example through training.*$：$： Third, countries need to make strategic decisions regarding the future of tourism in their countries. Some tourism businesses will not survive even once travel restr

41、ictions are removed. Governments need to decide which to support and for how long. Long term implications of the pandemic need to be considered. Some structural adjustment is likely to be necessary. It seems likely that COVID-19 will be around for some time. A return to normal before 2023 seems opti

42、mistic. Furthermore, environmental considerations, for example, may become more important and could increase costs for long-distance flights or increase social pressure to avoid them. Other changes may be a reduction of confidence in cruise ships, more domestic tourism in the three largest source re

43、gions, United States, Europe and China. Developing countries dependent on tourism might consider how they can diversify resources away from tourism.TABLE OF CONTENTReferencesAguiar, A., Chepeliev, M., Corong, E., McDougall, R., & van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2019). The GTAP Data Base: Version 10. Journa

44、l of Global Economic Analysis, 4(1), 1-27.Retrieved from https:/www.jgea.org/ojs/index.php/jgea/article/view/77Corong, E., Hertel, T., McDougall, R., Tsigas, M., & van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2017). The Standard GTAP Model, Version 7. Journal of Global Economic Analysis, 2(1), 1-119. doi:dx.doi.org/10.

45、21642/ JGEA.020101AFETH Zurich KOF Economic Forecasts (2021). Economic Forecast, Spring 2021.Available at https:/kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/forecasts/kof-economic-forecast.html.Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino, Cameron Appel, Lucas Rodes-Guirao and Max