管理科学决策分析 精选PPT.ppt

《管理科学决策分析 精选PPT.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《管理科学决策分析 精选PPT.ppt（57页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、管理科学决策分析 Chapter 12-Decision Analysis1第1页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 2Components of Decision MakingDecision Making without ProbabilitiesDecision Making with ProbabilitiesDecision Analysis with Additional InformationUtilityChapter Topics第2页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 3Table 12.1Pa

2、yoff TableA state of nature is an actual event that may occur in the future.A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation,presenting the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature.Decision AnalysisComponents of Decision Making第3页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision An

3、alysis 4Decision situation:Decision-Making Criteria:maximax,maximin,minimax,minimax regret,Hurwicz,and equal likelihood Table 12.2Payoff Table for the Real Estate InvestmentsDecision AnalysisDecision Making without Probabilities第4页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 5Table 12.3Payoff Table Illustr

4、ating a Maximax DecisionIn the maximax criterion the decision maker selects the decision that will result in the maximum of maximum payoffs;an optimistic criterion.Decision Making without ProbabilitiesMaximax Criterion第5页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 6Table 12.4Payoff Table Illustrating a Ma

5、ximin DecisionIn the maximin criterion the decision maker selects the decision that will reflect the maximum of the minimum payoffs;a pessimistic criterion.Decision Making without ProbabilitiesMaximin Criterion第6页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 7Table 12.6 Regret Table Illustrating the Minimax

6、 Regret DecisionRegret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs.The decision maker attempts to avoid regret by selecting the decision alternative that minimizes the maximum regret.Decision Making without ProbabilitiesMinimax Regret Criterion第7页，此课件共5

7、7页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 8The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criterion.A coefficient of optimism,is a measure of the decision makers optimism.The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the best payoff by and the worst payoff by 1-.,for each decision,and the best resul

8、t is selected.Decision ValuesApartment building$50,000(.4)+30,000(.6)=38,000Office building$100,000(.4)-40,000(.6)=16,000Warehouse$30,000(.4)+10,000(.6)=18,000Decision Making without ProbabilitiesHurwicz Criterion第8页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 9The equal likelihood(or Laplace)criterion mul

9、tiplies the decision payoff for each state of nature by an equal weight,thus assuming that the states of nature are equally likely to occur.Decision ValuesApartment building$50,000(.5)+30,000(.5)=40,000Office building$100,000(.5)-40,000(.5)=30,000Warehouse$30,000(.5)+10,000(.5)=20,000Decision Making

10、 without ProbabilitiesEqual Likelihood Criterion第9页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 10A dominant decision is one that has a better payoff than another decision under each state of nature.The appropriate criterion is dependent on the“risk”personality and philosophy of the decision maker.Criterio

11、n Decision(Purchase)MaximaxOffice buildingMaximinApartment buildingMinimax regretApartment buildingHurwiczApartment buildingEqual likelihoodApartment buildingDecision Making without ProbabilitiesSummary of Criteria Results第10页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 11Exhibit 12.1Decision Making withou

12、t ProbabilitiesSolution with QM for Windows(1 of 3)第11页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 12Exhibit 12.2Decision Making without ProbabilitiesSolution with QM for Windows(2 of 3)第12页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 13Exhibit 12.3Decision Making without ProbabilitiesSolution with QM for Window

13、s(3 of 3)第13页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 14Expected value is computed by multiplying each decision outcome under each state of nature by the probability of its occurrence.EV(Apartment)=$50,000(.6)+30,000(.4)=42,000EV(Office)=$100,000(.6)-40,000(.4)=44,000EV(Warehouse)=$30,000(.6)+10,000(.4

14、)=22,000Table 12.7Payoff table with Probabilities for States of NatureDecision Making with ProbabilitiesExpected Value第14页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 15The expected opportunity loss is the expected value of the regret for each decision.The expected value and expected opportunity loss crite

15、rion result in the same decision.EOL(Apartment)=$50,000(.6)+0(.4)=30,000EOL(Office)=$0(.6)+70,000(.4)=28,000EOL(Warehouse)=$70,000(.6)+20,000(.4)=50,000Table 12.8Regret(Opportunity Loss)Table with Probabilities for States of NatureDecision Making with ProbabilitiesExpected Opportunity Loss第15页，此课件共5

16、7页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 16Exhibit 12.4Expected Value ProblemsSolution with QM for Windows第16页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 17Exhibit 12.5Expected Value ProblemsSolution with Excel and Excel QM(1 of 2)第17页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 18Exhibit 12.6Expected Value ProblemsSolut

17、ion with Excel and Excel QM(2 of 2)第18页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 19The expected value of perfect information(EVPI)is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.EVPI equals the expected value given perfect information minus the expected value without perfect

18、information.EVPI equals the expected opportunity loss(EOL)for the best decision.Decision Making with ProbabilitiesExpected Value of Perfect Information第19页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 20Table 12.9Payoff Table with Decisions,Given Perfect Information Decision Making with ProbabilitiesEVPI Ex

19、ample(1 of 2)第20页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 21Decision with perfect information:$100,000(.60)+30,000(.40)=$72,000Decision without perfect information:EV(office)=$100,000(.60)-40,000(.40)=$44,000EVPI=$72,000-44,000=$28,000EOL(office)=$0(.60)+70,000(.4)=$28,000Decision Making with Probabili

20、tiesEVPI Example(2 of 2)第21页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 22Exhibit 12.7Decision Making with ProbabilitiesEVPI with QM for Windows第22页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 23A decision tree is a diagram consisting of decision nodes(represented as squares),probability nodes(circles),and decis

21、ion alternatives(branches).Table 12.10Payoff Table for Real Estate Investment ExampleDecision Making with ProbabilitiesDecision Trees(1 of 4)第23页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 24Figure 12.1Decision Tree for Real Estate Investment ExampleDecision Making with ProbabilitiesDecision Trees(2 of 4)

22、第24页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 25The expected value is computed at each probability node:EV(node 2)=.60($50,000)+.40(30,000)=$42,000EV(node 3)=.60($100,000)+.40(-40,000)=$44,000EV(node 4)=.60($30,000)+.40(10,000)=$22,000Branches with the greatest expected value are selected.Decision Makin

23、g with ProbabilitiesDecision Trees(3 of 4)第25页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 26Figure 12.2Decision Tree with Expected Value at Probability NodesDecision Making with ProbabilitiesDecision Trees(4 of 4)第26页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 27Exhibit 12.8Decision Making with ProbabilitiesDec

24、ision Trees with QM for Windows第27页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 28Exhibit 12.9Decision Making with ProbabilitiesDecision Trees with Excel and TreePlan(1 of 4)第28页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 29Exhibit 12.10Decision Making with ProbabilitiesDecision Trees with Excel and TreePlan(2 o

25、f 4)第29页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 30Exhibit 12.11Decision Making with ProbabilitiesDecision Trees with Excel and TreePlan(3 of 4)第30页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 31Exhibit 12.12Decision Making with ProbabilitiesDecision Trees with Excel and TreePlan(4 of 4)第31页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 1

26、2-Decision Analysis 32Decision Making with ProbabilitiesSequential Decision Trees(1 of 4)A sequential decision tree is used to illustrate a situation requiring a series of decisions.Used where a payoff table,limited to a single decision,cannot be used.Real estate investment example modified to encom

27、pass a ten-year period in which several decisions must be made:第32页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 33Figure 12.3Sequential Decision TreeDecision Making with ProbabilitiesSequential Decision Trees(2 of 4)第33页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 34Decision Making with ProbabilitiesSequential De

28、cision Trees(3 of 4)Decision is to purchase land;highest net expected value($1,160,000).Payoff of the decision is$1,160,000.第34页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 35Figure 12.4Sequential Decision Tree with Nodal Expected ValuesDecision Making with ProbabilitiesSequential Decision Trees(4 of 4)第35

29、页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 36Exhibit 12.13Sequential Decision Tree AnalysisSolution with QM for Windows第36页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 37Exhibit 12.14Sequential Decision Tree AnalysisSolution with Excel and TreePlan第37页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 38Bayesian analysis u

30、ses additional information to alter the marginal probability of the occurrence of an event.In real estate investment example,using expected value criterion,best decision was to purchase office building with expected value of$444,000,and EVPI of$28,000.Table 12.11Payoff Table for the Real Estate Inve

31、stment ExampleDecision Analysis with Additional InformationBayesian Analysis(1 of 3)第38页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 39A conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another event has already occurred.Economic analyst provides additional information for rea

32、l estate investment decision,forming conditional probabilities:g=good economic conditionsp=poor economic conditionsP=positive economic reportN=negative economic reportP(Pg)=.80P(NG)=.20P(Pp)=.10P(Np)=.90 Decision Analysis with Additional InformationBayesian Analysis(2 of 3)第39页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-De

33、cision Analysis 40A posteria probability is the altered marginal probability of an event based on additional information.Prior probabilities for good or poor economic conditions in real estate decision:P(g)=.60;P(p)=.40Posteria probabilities by Bayes rule:(gP)=P(PG)P(g)/P(Pg)P(g)+P(Pp)P(p)=(.80)(.60

34、)/(.80)(.60)+(.10)(.40)=.923Posteria(revised)probabilities for decision:P(gN)=.250P(pP)=.077 P(pN)=.750Decision Analysis with Additional InformationBayesian Analysis(3 of 3)第40页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 41Decision Analysis with Additional InformationDecision Trees with Posterior Probabil

35、ities(1 of 4)Decision tree with posterior probabilities differ from earlier versions in that:Two new branches at beginning of tree represent report outcomes.Probabilities of each state of nature are posterior probabilities from Bayes rule.第41页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 42Figure 12.5Decisi

36、on Tree with Posterior Probabilities Decision Analysis with Additional InformationDecision Trees with Posterior Probabilities(2 of 4)第42页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 43Decision Analysis with Additional InformationDecision Trees with Posterior Probabilities(3 of 4)EV(apartment building)=$50,

37、000(.923)+30,000(.077)=$48,460EV(strategy)=$89,220(.52)+35,000(.48)=$63,194第43页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 44Figure 12.6Decision Tree AnalysisDecision Analysis with Additional InformationDecision Trees with Posterior Probabilities(4 of 4)第44页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 45Table 12

38、.12Computation of Posterior ProbabilitiesDecision Analysis with Additional InformationComputing Posterior Probabilities with Tables第45页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 46The expected value of sample information(EVSI)is the difference between the expected value with and without information:For e

39、xample problem,EVSI=$63,194-44,000=$19,194The efficiency of sample information is the ratio of the expected value of sample information to the expected value of perfect information:efficiency=EVSI/EVPI=$19,194/28,000=.68Decision Analysis with Additional InformationExpected Value of Sample Informatio

40、n第46页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 47Table 12.13Payoff Table for Auto Insurance ExampleDecision Analysis with Additional InformationUtility(1 of 2)第47页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 48Expected Cost(insurance)=.992($500)+.008(500)=$500Expected Cost(no insurance)=.992($0)+.008(10,000)=$

41、80Decision should be do not purchase insurance,but people almost always do purchase insurance.Utility is a measure of personal satisfaction derived from money.Utiles are units of subjective measures of utility.Risk averters forgo a high expected value to avoid a low-probability disaster.Risk takers

42、take a chance for a bonanza on a very low-probability event in lieu of a sure thing.Decision Analysis with Additional InformationUtility(2 of 2)第48页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 49Decision Analysis Example Problem Solution(1 of 9)第49页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 50Decision Analysis

43、Example Problem Solution(2 of 9)a.Determine the best decision without probabilities using the 5 criteria of the chapter.b.Determine best decision with probabilities assuming.70 probability of good conditions,.30 of poor conditions.Use expected value and expected opportunity loss criteria.c.Compute e

44、xpected value of perfect information.d.Develop a decision tree with expected value at the nodes.e.Given following,P(Pg)=.70,P(Ng)=.30,P(Pp)=20,P(Np)=.80,determine posteria probabilities using Bayes rule.f.Perform a decision tree analysis using the posterior probability obtained in part e.第50页，此课件共57

45、页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 51Step 1(part a):Determine decisions without probabilities.Maximax Decision:Maintain status quoDecisionsMaximum PayoffsExpand$800,000Status quo 1,300,000(maximum)Sell 320,000Maximin Decision:ExpandDecisionsMinimum PayoffsExpand$500,000(maximum)Status quo -150,000Sell 3

46、20,000Decision Analysis Example Problem Solution(3 of 9)第51页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 52Minimax Regret Decision:ExpandDecisionsMaximum RegretsExpand$500,000(minimum)Status quo 650,000Sell 980,000Hurwicz(=.3)Decision:ExpandExpand$800,000(.3)+500,000(.7)=$590,000Status quo$1,300,000(.3)-15

47、0,000(.7)=$285,000Sell$320,000(.3)+320,000(.7)=$320,000Decision Analysis Example Problem Solution(4 of 9)第52页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 53Equal Likelihood Decision:ExpandExpand$800,000(.5)+500,000(.5)=$650,000Status quo$1,300,000(.5)-150,000(.5)=$575,000Sell$320,000(.5)+320,000(.5)=$320,0

48、00Step 2(part b):Determine Decisions with EV and EOL.Expected value decision:Maintain status quoExpand$800,000(.7)+500,000(.3)=$710,000Status quo$1,300,000(.7)-150,000(.3)=$865,000Sell$320,000(.7)+320,000(.3)=$320,000Decision Analysis Example Problem Solution(5 of 9)第53页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision

49、Analysis 54Expected opportunity loss decision:Maintain status quoExpand$500,000(.7)+0(.3)=$350,000Status quo 0(.7)+650,000(.3)=$195,000Sell$980,000(.7)+180,000(.3)=$740,000Step 3(part c):Compute EVPI.EV given perfect information=1,300,000(.7)+500,000(.3)=$1,060,000EV without perfect information=$1,3

50、00,000(.7)-150,000(.3)=$865,000EVPI=$1.060,000-865,000=$195,000Decision Analysis Example Problem Solution(6 of 9)第54页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 55 Step 4(part d):Develop a decision tree.Decision Analysis Example Problem Solution(7 of 9)第55页，此课件共57页哦Chapter 12-Decision Analysis 56Step 5(pa