华尔街日报-2021-07-12（搜搜报告）.pdf

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1、* * * * *MONDAY,JULY 12,2021 VOL.CCLXXVIII NO.9WSJ.comHHHH $4.00 Lastweek: DJIA 34870.1683.81 0.2%NASDAQ 14701.920.4%STOXX600 457.670.2%10-YR.TREASURY24/32, yield 1.354%OIL $74.56g$0.60EURO $1.1879YEN 110.12 BYRICHARDRUBIN Global Tax Deal Faces Big Hurdle in Congress DespiteG-20backing, pl antocol l

2、 ectmore fromcorpor ationshas hardpathtopassinU. S. AnandSinghalbuiltup $50,000 in savings from the time he was 13 doing freelance coding from his bedroom in New Delhi. It was meant to pay for a dreama master s degree in computer science in the U.S. The money disappeared in seven minutes on May 19.

3、Binance, the world s largest cryptocurrency exchange, froze for more than an hour just as the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies plunged. Mr. Singhal and others, who had made leveraged bets on their rise, were locked out. tioning Binance over the same issue. Lawyers representing the Italy g

4、roup sent a letter to 11 Binance addresses they could find in Europe and an email to the help desk. A Binance spokesman said extreme market volatility, like on May 19, can create technical bottlenecks for it and other ex- changes. “We took immediate steps to engage with users affected by the outage,

5、” and to provide compensation, the spokesman said. He said that “we remain happy to speak to anyone who reaches out to us with a concern about the outage.” PleaseturntopageA2 BYPATRICIAKOWSMANN ANDCAITLINOSTROFF BYAMYDOCKSERMARCUS Noisy Band of New Yorkers Stil l Sounds the 7P. M.Cheer iii The night

6、ly ruckus for frontline workers has quieted except for these holdouts Early in the pandemic, New Yorkers began cheer- ing for essential workers every evening at 7. From windows and balco- nies, they clapped, yelled, blew horns andbangedpots and pans, letting it all out for the men and women facing d

7、own the deadly vi- rus with little more than a flimsy mask. The ritual lasted a few months. By the summer last year, the booming five-bor- ough chorus had quieted to a few isolated soloists. Yet the nightly noise- making is still going strong at a handful of apartment buildings clustered in a neigh-

8、 borhood on Manhat- PleaseturntopageA10 BYCHARLESPASSY The Clanger though he and fellow scien- tists are still searching for the precise source of a dif- ferent coronavirus: the one that causes severe acute re- spiratory syndrome, or SARS. That virus emerged in 2002 and killed nearly 800 people worl

9、d-wide. Research on the origin of SARS and other deadly vi- ruses offers a cautionary ex- ample of the manifold chal- PleaseturntopageA10 WASHINGTONA complex internationalcorporatetax deal that took years to hammer out soon faces one of its tough- est tests: the U.S. Congress. The Group of 20 major

10、economies backed the plan this weekend in Venice, Italy, following the earlier endorse- ment from a broader 130-coun- try group. The plan, aimed at limiting corporate tax avoid- ance, would revamp longstand- ing international rules and is crucial to President Biden s plans to raise corporate taxes.

11、“The world is ready to end the global race to the bottom on corporate taxation, and there s broad consensus about how to do it,” Treasury Secre- tary Janet Yellen said. Asdetailednegotiations continue, other countries will look to see if U.S. lawmakers implement a minimum corpo- rate tax of at least

12、 15% and embrace new rules for divid- ing the power to tax the larg- est companies. Congress will stare back, monitoring how quickly other countries create minimum taxes and remove unilateraltaxesondigital companies that have drawn bi- partisan U.S. opposition. “The rest of the world is Pleaseturnto

13、pageA2 Rising stocks and rock-bot- tom interest rates have deliv- ered a big perk to rich Ameri- cans: cheap loans that they can use to fund their lifestyles while minimizing their tax bills. Bankshavesaidtheir wealthy clients are borrowing more than ever before, often using loans backed by their po

14、rtfolios of stocks and bonds. Morgan Stanley wealth-man- agement clients have $68.1 bil- lion worth of securities-based and other nonmortgage loans outstanding, more than double five years earlier. Bank of America Corp. said it has $62.4 billioninsecurities-based loans, dwarfing its book of home-equ

15、ity lines of credit. The loans have special bene- fits beyond the flexible repay- ment terms and low interest rates on offer. They allow bor- rowers who need cash to avoid selling in a hot market. Startup founders can monetize their stakes without losing control of their companies. The very rich oft

16、en use these loans as part of a “buy, borrow, die” strategy to avoid capital-gains taxes. Many wealthy people are also borrowing against their portfolios. When Tom Anderson started at Merrill Lynch email : wsj. l trswsj. com Need assi stance wi th your subscri pti on? By web: customercenter. wsj. co

17、m; By email : wsjsupportwsj. com By phone: 1- 800- JOURNAL (1- 800- 568- 7625) Repri nts Byphone: 1- 800- 843- 0008 WSJ back i ssues and framed pages: wsjshop. com Our newspapers are 100% sourced from sustai nabl y certi fi ed mi l l s. GOT A TI P FOR US? SUBMI T I T AT WSJ.COM/TI PS both tasks. Mr.

18、 Biden and Ms. Yellen emphasize the minimum tax, but other countries care more about getting the power toexpandtheircorporate taxes. They have imposed digi- tal services taxes on technology companies such as Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc.which they said aren t paying enough corporate taxesand will

19、only give those up if they can tax those firms another way. “The role of Congress will be very important, because if the rest of the world doesn t think it s going to get what it bar- gained for on profit-allocation rules, then it will lose its appe- tite” for the rest of the deal, said Deloitte LLP

20、 s Robert Stack, the Obama administration s in- ternational tax negotiator. The Biden administration will try to turn its drive for a tougher minimum tax into leg- islation this fall without Repub- lican votes by using the budget reconciliation process that re- quires a simple Senate majority instea

21、d of the 60 votes needed for most bills. The White House would then attempt to change the international rules, perhaps through a treaty requiring Re- publican support. The administration s inter- national tax changes alone would raise about $1 trillion over a decade to help pay for policies such as

22、an expanded child tax credit and renewable- energy tax breaks. That might beenoughmotivationfor many Democrats. “It s easier to sell the no- tion of raising taxes on off- shore earnings than it is to raise rates domestically,” said Manal Corwin of KPMG LLP, a former Obama administration Treasury off

23、icial. Business groups are urging the U.S. to wait. Their point: The U.S. imposed minimum taxes on U.S. companies in 2017,andothercountries didn t follow. “Are we really going to do it again and increase our rates while we wait and see if they do something?” said Cathy Schultz, vice president for ta

24、x and fiscal policy at Business Roundtable, an association of large-company chief executives. The 130-country agreement includes an important shift in how the world sees the exist- ing U.S. minimum tax. Under very aware that the adminis- tration cannot bind Congress,” said Chip Harter, the Trump adm

25、inistration s lead interna- tional tax negotiator, who is now at PwC LLP. “They are watching very closely.” Internationalnegotiators split their work into two sepa- rate ideas, known as pillars. Pillar One, pushed by Euro- pean countries including the U.K., would assign more taxing power to countrie

26、s with large consumer markets and pull power away from low-tax ju- risdictions such as Ireland. Pillar Two, driven by the U.S., would impose at least a 15% tax on companiesworld- wide earnings. Setting that floor makes it easier for the Biden administration to try raising taxes on U.S. compa- nies b

27、y up to $2 trillion over a decadebecauseU.S.rates could rise higher without cre- ating significant opportunities for companies to dodge taxes by shifting profits and ad- dresses. Both pillars present tricky legislativechallenges.They likelywillmoveseparately through Congress, but the in- ternational

28、 consensus rests on pairing them and completing ContinuedfromPageOne about President Biden firing the Social Security commis- sioner incorrectly described Mr. McConnell as the Senate majority leader. Notice to readers Wall Street Journal staff membersareworkingre- motely during the pandemic. For the

29、 foreseeable future, please send reader comments only by email or phone, using the contacts below, not via U.S. Mail. Readers can alert The Wall Street Journal to any errors in news articles by emailing or by calling 888-410-2667. CORRECTIONS AMPLIFICATIONS scribe is a generational shift from the lo

30、wer inflation of the past two decades, a shift that could create new chal- lenges for households, policy makers and investors who came to expect inflation closer to or below 2%. I f the economists prove correct, Federal Reserve officials might have to raise rates sooner or more than they expect to k

31、eep in- flation under control. The Fed s preferred infla- tion gaugethe overall PCE index, which includes food and energy pricesrose 3.9% in May, nearly double the central bank s 2% target. The Fed, in a report released Fri- day, repeated its view that in- flation has picked up this year due to bott

32、lenecks, hiring dif- ficulties and other “largely transitory factors” related to the economy s rebound from the effects of the pandemic. Most officials, in projections released last month, believed inflation would decline to around 2% over the next two years, though there was greater uncertainty ove

33、r how quickly they might need to raise interest rates to get in- flation there. At the Fed s June policy meeting, most officials pro- jected they would raise inter- est rates from near zero by 2023. Several expected to raise rates next year. In March, most officials ex- pected to hold rates steady t

34、hrough 2023. Some 58% of the econo- mists surveyed don t see the Fed raising interest rates until the second half of 2022 or later. “Inflation is expected to surge longer and longerlon- THE OUTLOOK | By Gwynn Guilford and Anthony DeBarros EconomistsRaiseInflationForecasts A mericans should brace the

35、mselves for several years of higher infla- tion than they ve seen in de- cades, according to econo- mists who expect the robust post-pandemic economic re- covery to fuel brisk price in- creases for a while. Economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal raised their forecasts of how high

36、inflation would go and for how long, com- pared with their previous ex- pectations in April. The respondents on aver- age now expect a widely fol- lowed measure of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, to be up 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021 from a year before. They fore

37、cast the annual rise to recede to slightly less than 2.3% a year in 2022 and 2023. That would mean an aver- age annual increase of 2.58% from 2021 through 2023, put- ting inflation at levels last seen in 1993. “We re in a transitional phase right now,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Eco

38、nomics LLC. “We are transitioning to a higher period of inflation and inter- est rates than we ve had over the last 20 years.” The inflation measurethe Commerce Department s core price index of personal-con- sumption expenditures jumped 3.4% in May from a year earlier, the biggest in- crease since t

39、he early 1990s. What Mr. Naroff and the other survey respondents de- ger than the Fed previously thought,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “The Fed is now likely to raise rates in the first half of 2023, although some Fed presidents will be nipping at the bit to move sooner.” So

40、me respondents worry the Fed could move too slowly. “The danger is that monetary authorities are be- hind the curve,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council. “I m not saying hyperinflation is around the corner, just that a lot of things have come to- gether in the last y

41、ear, and the overall trend of costs across the board is growing faster than in the last five or 10 years.” Core PCE inflation rose just 1.7% annually, on average, between 1995 and 2019. Now the Fed wants inflation to overshoot 2% for a while to make up for that shortfall. Another key measure of in-

42、flation, the Labor Depart- ment s consumer-price index, which tends to run hotter than the PCE index, leapt 5% in May from a year before, the most in nearly 13 years. Survey respondents expect the department to report Tuesday that the CPI rose 4.7% in June from a year be- fore. They expect the rate

43、to fall to 4.1% by year s end. Their CPI forecasts for next year and 2023 hover between 2.4% and 2.7%. Supply-chain bottlenecks, higher shipping costs and la- bor shortages might prove temporary as the market ad- justs to disruptions. However, the combination of plentiful federal stimulus funding, a

44、n unprecedented stockpile of household savings and the rollout of vaccines is driving a surge in consumer demand, enabling many businesses to raise prices significantly for the first time in decades. If households and businesses start to expect rising prices, that dynamic can become self-fulfilling.

45、 T here are signs that con- sumers are starting to anticipate higher infla- tion. Consumer inflation ex- pectationsthe rate of infla- tion the median consumer expects five to 10 years from nowclimbed to 2.8% in June, about the same rate as in 2014, according to the Uni- versity of Michigan Survey of

46、 Consumers. Higher inflation for several years would ripple through the economy in various ways. Consumers could find their household budgets squeezed. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on stock values and could crimp growth in inter- est-rate-sensitive industries like housing. Higher inflation can

47、 also make it harder for businesses to plan longer- term investments. “It s disruptiveyou can t be sure of what your costs are, whether you can get sup- plies or what the costs will be six months from now,” Mr. Swift said. Corepersonal - c onsumptionexpenditures indexforec astineac hsurveymonth Sour

48、ce: Wall Street Journal Economi c F orecas ti ng Surv ey Dec. Jan.2021 March AprilJuly 1.25 1.75 2.25 3.25% 2.75 2021forec ast 3.2% 2022forec ast 2.3% Sept.2020 CHANGEIN4Q FROMSAME PERIODTHE YEARBEFORE Note: Lates t s urv ey of 64 bus i nes s ,academi c and fi nanci al forecas terswas conducted July

49、 2-7. ECONOMIC CALENDAR Tuesday: Chinas exports are expected to increase at a robust, al beit sl ower , pace in June.The decel er ation is l ikel y due to the Covid-19 resurgence in the coun- trys biggest export hub.Econo- mists estimate imports al so eased, l eaving the trade surplus fl at at $45. 5 bil l ion. The U. S.consumer-price index is expected to post anothersig- nificant gain in June, underscoring a run-up in infl ation as the econ- omy emerges from the pandemic. Wednesday: Fed Chairman Je- rome Powell is schedul ed to de- l iverthe centr albanks semiannual report to Congress on t