年度农业投资策略.pdf

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1、?2009?12?2010?2010?5%?2010?20%?95-09?1?2010?335?3?2010?1?2?3?4?EPS?PE?08A 09E10E 11E 08A09E10E11E?32.80 0.01 0.520.90 1.30 328063 36 25?45?18.81 0.07 0.200.60 1.00 26994 31 19?24?31.81 0.39 0.811.05 1.30 82 39 30 24?36?22.06 0.42 0.760.90 1.08 53 29 25 20?27?11.99 0.38 0.400.60 0.72 32 30 20 17?15?1

2、3.03 0.13 0.290.39 0.57 10045 33 23?17?18.27 0.5 0.500.72 0.83 37 37 25 22?22?29.56 0.57 0.801.05 1.41 52 37 28 21?35?31.56 0.55 0.680.88 1.07 57 46 36 29?33?10.48 0.2 0.210.27 0.33 52 50 39 32?12.5?26.55 0.44 0.500.72 0.90 60 53 37 30?-?40.49 0.58 0.760.98 1.26 70 53 41 32?-?2009?12?2?010-84588226?

3、010-84588274?-100-50050080121080507080818081128?300H?1?9?4?.2009-09-292.?2009?.2009-08-033.?2009?.2009-05-154.?.2009-10-215.?.2009-11-236.?.2009-08-057?.2009-12-02?2010?.1?.1?.1?.3?.4?.7?.12?.13?.13?335?.15?.17?.20?.20?.22?.22?.23?”?.26?335?.27?.29?.31?.32?.33?.34?1?.3?2?.3?3?.3?4?.3?5?.4?6?.4?7?.5?

4、8?.5?9?09/10?.6?10?.6?11?CBOT?.6?2010?12?.7?13?.8?14?.9?15?.9?16?.9?17?.10?18?.10?19?.10?20?.12?21?.12?22?.13?23?.14?24?.14?25?.15?26?.15?27?335?.16?28?335?.16?29?.17?30?.17?31?.17?32?.18?33?.18?34?.19?35?“?”?.19?36?.20?37?.20?38?.21?39?.21?40?.22?41?.22?42?.23?43?.23?44?.23?45?.23?46?07?.24?47?.24?

5、48?.25?49?.25?50?.25?51?.28?52?.29?53?.29?2010?54?.29?55?.29?1?/?.2?2?.4?3?.5?4?2009?.7?5?08/09?.8?6?.11?7?.12?8?.13?9?335?.16?10?335?.16?11?A?.18?12?335?.19?13?.24?14?.24?15?/?.26?16?2010?.27?17?.28?18?.28?19?.30?20?.31?21?.32?22?.33?23?.34?24?.35?2010?2009?12?1?1?1?2010?2010?2?4?1?2?13%?2006?2010?

6、335?2010?5%?2010?20%?95-09?1?2010?335?3?2010?1?2?3?4?2010?2009?12?2?1?/?EPS?PE?2008A 2009E2010E2011E2008A2009E2010E 2011E?002041?32.80 0.01 0.52 0.90 1.30 3280 63 36 25?45600354?18.81 0.07 0.20 0.60 1.00 269 94 31 19?24600298?31.81 0.39 0.81 1.05 1.30 82 39 30 24?36600195?22.06 0.42 0.76 0.90 1.08 5

7、3 29 25 20?27000910?11.99 0.38 0.40 0.60 0.72 32 30 20 17?15000713?13.03 0.13 0.29 0.39 0.57 100 45 33 23?17000860?18.27 0.5 0.50 0.72 0.83 37 37 25 22?22002200?29.56 0.57 0.80 1.05 1.41 52 37 28 21?35600737?16.59 0.31 0.50 0.59 0.65 54 33 28 26?18600978?8.25 0.18 0.28 0.35 0.45 46 29 24 18?8.8 0020

8、69?31.56 0.55 0.68 0.88 1.07 57 46 36 29?33000876?13.89 0.52 0.60 0.75 0.86 27 23 19 16?-600598?14.88 0.36 0.38 0.43 0.52 41 39 35 29?18600467?10.48 0.2 0.21 0.27 0.33 52 50 39 32?12.5 600201?10.47 0.26 0.36 0.39 0.48 40 29 27 22?-000061?12.98 0.12 0.17 0.24 0.30 108 76 54 43?-000998?18.72 0.26 0.18

9、 0.35 0.40 72 104 53 47?-000972?10.80-0.16 0.20 0.35 0.40-68 54 31 27?-000911?22.48 0.09 0.28 0.63 0.80 250 80 36 28?-600438?11.60 0.15 0.24 0.32 0.40 77 48 36 29?-002299?26.55 0.44 0.50 0.72 0.90 60 53 37 30?-002311?40.49 0.58 0.76 0.98 1.26 70 53 41 32?-?12?2?1?2?335?3?1?2?3?335?09/10?20%?8%?100%?

10、85%?4?5?1?2?3?20%?30%?2010?1?2?30%?10.5%?65%?3?1?2010?2?3?2009?2010?4?2010?2009?12?3?11?12?4%-8%?1%-4%?2009?09?11?30?-2.05%?-7.97%?16.22%?10.71%?16.34%?37.46%?65.98%?09?30.57%?27.78%?32.52%?28.94%?30.61%?51.24%?66.96%?09?09/10?1?/?300400500600700800081013081103081124081216090108090130090223090316090

11、4060904280905190906100907010907230908130909030909250910160911060911308008509009501000105011001150?CBOT?2?/?101520253008101308110308112408121609010809013009022309031609040609042809051909061009070109072309081309090309092509101609110609113030405060708090?11?2?NYBOT?CBOT?3?/?0100200300400500600200401200

12、4062004112005042005092006022006072006122007052007102008032008082009012009062009112004006008001000?USDA?2?1?100%B?FOB?4?05101520253035200301200306200311200404200409200502200507200512200605200610200703200708200801200806200811200904200909020406080100?/?50kg?/?USDA?COTLOOK A?2010?2009?12?4?2?2003 2004 2

13、0052006200720082009?1-11?2009?11?2009F2010F?B?201 244 291311335713582.4 558.5 580600?1?241 289 238236326483402.9 389.1 410430?2?105 112 98122164228165.8 172.0 170190?/?2?150 161 158199266353236.6 227.5 240260?3?1134 1552 1506144615481641 1842.8 1927.4 1850 1950?1109 1295 1214129715361619 1604.6 1772

14、.4 1620 1700?1588 2409 2286230325632818 2848.3 2841.8 2850 2990?/?3?2667 3257 2768257432734526 3573.3 3700.0 3600 3800?6-12?2009?1?5-6?1?10?1997-2008?5000?4.2?4?10?1?10?2008?10?2008?9?2008?10?2009?4?1.2?4000?5?%-15.00-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0019301936194219481954196019661972197819841990

15、199620022008-15.00-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.00?GDP?2005?CPI?6?1,615.004,550.0017,500.000.005,000.0010,000.0015,000.0020,000.00200720082009?CEIC?1?09?1?12?GDP?85%?GDP?300%?2010?2009?12?5?2010?2009?6?GDP?CPI?CPI?1?7?%5.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.00199601199704199807199910200101200204200307200

16、410200601200704200807200910M1?M2?8?%0500001000001500002000001996021996121997111998101999092000082001072002062003052004042005032006022006122007112008102009090102030405060?3?2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F GDP?%?9 8.5 9.6 10.1 10.5 CPI?%?5.9-0.6 2.7 3.5 4.0 PPI?%?6.9-5.0 4.4 4.0 5.0?%?26.1 33.0 26.5 25.0

17、 28.0 M2?%?17.8 27.4 19.8 16.6 16.1?%?18.8 30.3 21.2 16.0 15.0 1?%?2.25 2.25 2.79 4.1 3.1 1?%?5.31 5.24 6.12 7.2 6.1?11?25?2009?3%?2007/08?20.58?2008/09?3%?2007?2008?2008?2009?2008?30?2010?2009?12?6?2009?08?9?09/10?0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%1965/19661969/19701973/19741977/19781981/19821985/19861989/1990

18、1993/19941997/19982001/20022005/20062009/2010?USDA?10?%01002003004005006001965/19661969/19701973/19741977/19781981/19821985/19861989/19901993/19941997/19982001/20022005/20062009/20100%5%10%15%20%25%30%?USDA?11?12?2010?11?CBOT?/?100200300400500600197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519

19、8619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720086080100120140160CBOT?09?30?2010?2009?12?7?12?/?/?1001502002503003504004501979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009H1102030405060708090CBOT?EIA?4?2009Q4-2010Q1?2010?2006?2008?10?3-5?04?146

20、?09?1230?2009?4?2009?2009?1?2009?788?130?161?151?2009?2007?08?2009?0.08?/?2009?12?1?2010?4?30?2009?2009?2008?50%?2009?12?1?1?2010?4?30?30?2010?2009?12?8?2009?2010?0.03?/?2009?0.76?/?0.75?/?0.74?/?1.87?/?2009?12?1?2010?4?30?A?631?2007?7?1?5.32?1540?1/4?2007-2008?4800?90%?2009?12?2009?11?1?2010?1?1?2?

21、3?2009/10?4?10%?5?6?2010?1?2003?2003-2008?40%?40%?13?5?08/09?/?11250 50%4500 40.0%80.00%1440-1540?16550 52%4000 24.2%46.48%1500?1650 80%750 45.4%56.82%3700?19300 45%2250 11.7%25.91%1840-1880?760 70%272 35.8%51.13%12600?1448 100%120 8.3%8.29%3300?2010?2009?12?9?0.025?/?0.04?/?2003?14?20080605?30%?15?

22、/?100012001400160018002000220020030120030620031120040420040920050220050720051220060520061020070320070820080120080620081120090420090920002500300035004000450050005500?16?/?9000105001200013500150001650018000200301200306200311200404200409200502200507200512200605200610200703200708200801200806200811200904

23、2009092000250030003500400045005000328?bloomberg?2010?2009?12?102?7?8?20%-30%?2000?41%?2010?2008?2.4?17?%5%-2%48%14%35%?MOA?18?0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%1960/611963/641966/671969/701972/731975/761978/791981/821984/851987/881990/911993/941996/971999/002002/032005/062008/09?2020?5.6-5.8?10%?1998?3.

24、2%?19?%050100150200250300350195019521954195619581960196219641966196819701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008?2010?2009?12?11?6?%?/?2004 116 28.5 1 0 145.5 11.41 2005 132 38.7 3 0 173.7 13.22 2006 142 41.5 6 120 309.5 23.31 2007 151 51 20 276 498 37.31 2008 151

25、 120.7 40 712 1030 71.98 2009 151 161.3 130 788 1230 78.99 2010E 151 170 140 788 1249 80.22?5?9?17?33%?2009?12?2009?11?1?2010?1?2009/10?2009?3.33?3?27?6?8?6?2010?2009?12?12?20?/?01020304050200310200402200406200410200502200506200510200602200606200610200702200706200710200802200806200810200902200906200

26、910?21?43000440004500046000470004800020081220090120090220090320090420090520090620090720090820090920091047004750480048504900495050005050?2009?10?46921?0.87%?4875?0.72%?4?3?1000?3%?1994?2008?CPI?1991-2009?500?20?CPI?3%?2007-2008?ADM?TYSON?SFD?HRL?500?7?950?1998-2048?23?1?1998-2028?20?5?1998-2030?2.8?2

27、0?2008.11.1-2026.10.31?20?66?15?24?15?449?182?51?65?30.5?23.7?10.5?50?28?22?10.53?56.5?10.53?2010?2009?12?13?1994-2009?CPI?A?PE?15?CPI?2009?CPI?09?PE?CPI?15?1-2?A?A?43?3%?22?(10)01020301994011994101995071996041997011997101998071999042000012000102001072002042003012003102004072005042006012006102007072

28、00804200901200910-0.40.00.40.81.21.6CPI?A?2010?2009?1?4?2000?958?20?981?1?6?9023?6172?2000?250?500?80%?3?4000?12%-13%?40%?50?80?30?50?5?30?60?8?958?2000?20?2003?981?2003?108?2001?335?04?06?701/661?2009?662?2009?2010?2009?12?14?3769?2009?2001?207?1998?2002?1?2005?131?2000?14?2004?88?2005?20?2004?9023

29、?2003?6172?2003?2006?10?12.6%?48?10?6%?10?49%?22%?10?8800?3?2007?2005?2006?2007?2008?335?2009?16.3?4.39?11?5.3?2.53?2008?2009?15%?2008?2009?1.16?/?1.48?/?2.36?/?1.30?/?23?010020030040050060070020002001200220032004200520062007200820096000080000100000120000140000160000180000?24?02040608010012014016018

30、0200020012002200320042005200620072008200915000170001900021000230002500027000290003100033000?2010?2009?12?15?25?1000020000300004000050000600001949195419591964196919741979198419891994199920042009?26?2.624.458.77.35.324.55.20.340.470.820.550.350.40.190.02.04.06.08.010.02003/042005/062007/082009/10?2003

31、?36%?40%?2008?2003?8%?21%?15%?60%?40%?2010?1?2?3?4?2010?335?958?20%?958?335?2004-2005?2009?4?335?5%?07?335?3.2%?08?7%?2010?2009?12?16?9?335?CK?662 666.7kg?985?5.8%101?-?661 745.1kg?985?8.5%110?90.9%?701 640.8kg?985?5.1%104?65.2%?335 763.4kg?108?18.6%127?100%?958 624.9kg-95?-?27?335?/?525003800022700

32、50001500026,66725,33323,33319,33316,667010000200003000040000500006000006/0707/0808/0909/10E10/11E15,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00027,00029,000?28?335?35500185004850068000208.33%91.89%36.62%40.21%0100002000030000400005000060000700008000006/0707/0808/0909/10E0%50%100%150%200%250%?002041?661?662?701

33、?335?10?335?335?958?30?/?335?1.5?/?958?2.3?/?30?/?958?20?/?16?/?1-2?30-50?/?1-2?30-50?/?10%-20%?50-150?/?75-225?/?5-8%?35-60?/?53-90?/?0.02?/?-?662?3769?662?3769?335?958?2010?2009?12?17?29?/?900210019001600130024.318.918.918.217.50510152025302010E2011E2012E2013E2014E05001000150020002500?30?%?18914.0

34、026292.0032508.0041958.0050274.0058.35%60.59%61.14%64.91%68.94%50%55%60%65%70%2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E0100002000030000400005000060000?335?31?%70%58%33%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%?335?958?3-4?95%?10%-15%?A?5?50?2010?2009?12?18?11?A?002041?100%?2?13?5000?335?3?600354?50%?33%?17%?335?335?600371?85%?15%

35、?958?20?000713?40%?29%?26%?5%?1?600?000998?69%?12%?7%?12%?FAO?5?20?90?8%-10%?32?10.0%12.0%8.6%13.0%14.8%15.0%0.0%?KWS2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%?33?23.8572.5120.52147.8510%24%49%67%02040608010012014016019852000200420070%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%?%?2000?2010?2009?12?192000?88%?80%?2000-2008?3

36、200?958?20?335?10%?1%?34?%13915412835392934211455.30%59.40%53.80%0500100015002000250030003500400020052006200750%52%54%56%58%60%?35?%19%25%16%27%35.40%36%25%28%0%10%20%30%40%20052007?10?11-50?10?11-50?2005-2007?2005?19%?25%?35.4%?36%?1?2?/?3?/?4?4?12?335?335?4400?/?8800?/?2007?200?2600?800?8500?1?201

37、0?2009?12?20?335?335?335?1-9?19?12?7?27.7?43?93%?19?43?08?36?%-15%21%-13%16%-3%5%-24%38%3%20%16%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2007Q12007Q22007Q32007Q42008Q12008Q22008Q32008Q42009Q12009Q22009Q3?37?%21.49%18.13%22.20%18.63%21.91%19.47%20.87%21.69%19.68%18.14%21.60%16%17%18%19%20%21%22%23%2007Q12007Q220

38、07Q32007Q42008Q12008Q22008Q32008Q42009Q12009Q22009Q3?wind?60%?32%?2010?2009?12?21?002069?43%?38?%?-40%0%40%-40%-20%0%20%40%80%?39?%7419010440111336778070708481255491032351471341248621780210793245%41%10%-18%2.81%-3%-23%-77%-37%77%298%0200004000060000800001000001200001400001600002007Q12007Q22007Q32007

39、Q42008Q12008Q22008Q32008Q42009Q12009Q22009Q3-100%0%100%200%300%400%?3-6?9?A?2009?2008?2010?2009?6?30?43?352?2008?299?349?261?91?17%?2010?08?1?2010?2009?12?22?2009?1-9?10.41%?(?)?40?/?0.30.60.80.50.50.50.140.000.200.400.600.801.00?O?A?41?%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%080301080401080501080601080701080801

40、080901081001081101081201090101090201090301090401090501090601090701090801090901?wind?1.3?60%-70%?1.6?2?1.3-1.4?4?6?5000?1-9?1?08?12?31?6?2008?2010?2009?12?232?2009?4?42?%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%080301080401080501080601080701080801080901081001081101081201090101090201090301090401090501090601090701

41、090801090901?wind?43?%?01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000200601200603200605200607200609200611200701200703200705200707200709200711200801200803200805200807200809200811200901200903200905200907200909-20-1001020304050?44?%?05001,0001,50020060120060320060520060720060920061120070120070320070520070720070920071

42、1200801200803200805200807200809200811200901200903200905200907200909-20020406080?45?%?01,0002,0003,0004,000200601200603200605200607200609200611200701200703200705200707200709200711200801200803200805200807200809200811200901200903200905200907200909-30-20-1001020304050?2008?600978?2007?7?8?4?5?9?10?2010?

43、2010?2009?12?24?46?07?/?80120160200240280070330070530070730070930071130080130080330080530080730080930081130090130090330090530090730090930?wind?47?/?80120160200240280041105050205050505050805051105060205060505060805061105070205070505070805071105080205080505080805081105090205090505090805091105?wind?09?

44、1500?2010?2500?2011?6000?13?/?0.27 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 100 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 110 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 120 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 130 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 140 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27

45、 0.27 0.28 150 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 160 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 170 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 180 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 190 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35?/?200 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.3

46、6 0.36?2010?EPS?0.27?1?/?EPS?0.01?10?/?EPS?0.01-0.02?1?/?EPS?0.09-0.10?10?/?EPS?0.04-0.05?14?/?0.88 23.2 24.2 25.2 26.2 27.2 28.2 29.2 130 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.74 0.84 0.93 1.03 140 0.49 0.59 0.69 0.79 0.88 0.98 1.08 150 0.54 0.64 0.73 0.83 0.93 1.02 1.12 160 0.58 0.68 0.78 0.88 0.97 1.07 1.17 170 0.63

47、0.73 0.82 0.92 1.02 1.12 1.21 180 0.67 0.77 0.87 0.97 1.06 1.16 1.26?/?190 0.72 0.82 0.91 1.01 1.11 1.21 1.30?2010?EPS?0.88?2010?4?20%?2009?2010?2009?12?25?20%?1?2000?2008?839?4-5?2010?600298?48?/?19604205112072321350217001850019000195002000020500210002150022000200720082009E2010E2011E?49?/?1.01.52.0

48、2.53.03.54.0200001200007200101200107200201200207200301200307200401200407200501200507200601200607200701200707200801200807200901200907?2000?6?60?/?09/10?70-80?08?69?07?104?840-920?/?50?020000400006000080000100000120000140000200307200310200401200404200407200410200501200504200507200510200601200604200607

49、2006102007012007042007072007102008012008042008072008102009012009042009072009100500100015002000?/?2010?2009?12?26?50%-80%?550?/?6.8?1?100?/?200?/?1500?/?60?/?50-70?/?2009?6?CPI?2010?15?/?EPS?PE?2008A 2009E 2010E2011E2008A2009E2010E2011EPB PS?002041?32.80 0.01 0.52 0.90 1.30 328063 36 25 8.1513.85?45600354?18.81 0.07 0.20 0.60 1.00 269 94 31 19 6.733.15?24600298?31.81 0.39 0.81 1.05 1.30 82 39 30 24 8.766.58?36600195?22.06 0.42 0.76 0.90 1.20 53 29 25 18 7.004.71?27000910?11.99 0.38 0.40 0.60 0.72 32 30 20 17 3.191.11?15000713?13.03 0.13 0.29 0.39 0.57 100 45 33 23 5.293.11?17000860?18.27 0.5