新冠疫情如何改变世界：统计观点第二卷.docx

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1、新冠疫情如何改变世界：统计观点第二卷 ContributingorganisationsAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB) AfricanDevelopmentBank(AfDB)BankforInternationalSettlements(BIS)CooperationCouncilfortheArabCountriesoftheGulf(GCC) Eur opeanCentralBank(ECB)Eur ostatFoodandAgricultur eOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(F AO) InternationalCivilAviati

2、onOrganization(ICAO)InternationalLabourOrganization(ILO)OfficeoftheUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforHumanRights(OHCHR) OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD) PartnershipinStatisticsforDevelopmentinthe21stCentury(P ARIS21) UnitedNationsChildr en’ sFund(UNICEF)UnitedNationsConfer

3、enceonT radeandDevelopment(UNCT AD) UnitedNationsDevelopmentPr ogramme(UNDP)UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacific(UNESCAP) UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforW estAsia(ESCW A)UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforAfrica(UNECA)UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaa

4、ndtheCaribbean(ECLAC) UnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCulturalOrganization(UNESCO)UnitedNationsEntityforGenderEqualityandtheEmpowermentofW omen(UNW omen) UnitedNationsHighCommissionerforRefugees(UNHCR)UnitedNationsHumanSettlementPr ogramme(UNHabitat) UnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganizat

5、ion(UNIDO) UnitedNationsOfficeonDrugsandCrime(UNODC)UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision(UNDESA/PD) UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,StatisticsDivision(UNDESA/SD) UnitedNationsW orldT ourismOrganization(UNWTO)UniversalPostalUnion(UPU) W orldBank(WB)W

6、orldT radeOrganization(WTO)1 TheCommitteefortheCoor dinationofStatisticalActivities(CCSA)TheCCSAiscomprisedofinternationalandsupranationalorganizationswhosemandatesincludethepr ovisionofinternationalof ficial statisticsguidedbythePrinciplesGover ningInternationalStatisticalActivities( https:/unstats

7、.un.org/unsd/ccsa/principles_stat_ac - tivities/)andwhichhaveapermanentembeddedstatisticalservicethatmaintainsregularcontact withcountries.Themandateofthe CCSAistoensur etheef ficientfunctioningoftheinternationalstatisticalsystem,toassistGover nmentsinthedevelopmentofcommon statisticalstandar ds,pla

8、tformsandmethodologies,andtopr ovideinter -institutionalsupport,outr eachandadvocacyforhigh-quality of ficialstatistics. Mor einformationcanbefoundontheCCSAwebpage:https:/unstats.un.org/unsd/ccsa/2Intr oductionW earepleasedtopr esentthesecondvolumeofHow COVID-19ischangingtheworld:astatisticalperspec

9、tive.Sincether eleaseofthefirstvolumeinMay2020,theCOVID-19pandemichascontinuedtoragear oundtheworld.Bytheendof August,countriesar oundtheglobehadr eportedover25millioncases,withnearly850,000deathsattributedtothedisease.Thepandemicpr esentstoughchoices.Nationalandregionalgover nments,localcommunities

10、,healthandschoolsystems,aswell asfamiliesandbusinessesarebeingfor cedtotakemanydifficultdecisions:How tor eopensafely?How tosafeguar dpeople’ s livesandpr otect theirlivelihoods?Wher etoallocatescarcer esour ces?How topr otect thoseunabletopr otect themselves?Answerstoquestionslikethesewillaf

11、fectourshort-termsuccessinbattlingthevirusandcouldhaveimpactsforgenerationsto come.Mor ethanever , theworldneedsr eliableandtrustworthydataandstatisticstoinformtheseimportantdecisions.TheUnited NationsandallmemberorganizationsoftheCommitteefortheCoor dinationofStatisticalActivities(CCSA)collectandma

12、ke availableawealthofinformationforassessingthemultifacetedimpactsofthepandemic.Thisr eportupdatessomeoftheglobal andregionaltr endspr esentedinthefirstvolumeandof fersasnapshotofhowCOVID-19continuestoaf fecttheworldtoday acrossmultipledomains.Ther eportalsohighlightstheimpactofthepandemiconspecific

13、r egionsandpopulationgr oups.Theinformationcontainedher einisevengrimmerthaninthefirstvolume,confirmingtheunprecedentedimpactofthepandemic ontheeconomicandsocialfabricofoursocieties.Somekeyfindingsareasfollows:• T r endsinCOVID-19caseloadsdif ferwidelybycountry , illustratingtheunpredictablenat

14、ur eofthepandemicandthe importanceofremainingvigilantinourbattleagainstthevirus;• Globalfor eigndir ect investmentisnowpr ojectedtofallbyasmuchas40percentin2020;• Globalmanufacturingoutput fellby20percentinApril2020compar edtothesameperiodofthepr eviousyear , accelerating analr eadydeclini

15、ngtr end;• Thepandemicispushinganadditional71to100millionpeopleintoextremepoverty;• Globally , thefirstquarterof2020sawalossoftheequivalentto155millionfull-timejobs,anumberthatincr easedto400 millioninthesecondquarter , withlower -andmiddle-incomecountrieshar desthit;• Simulationssugg

16、estasteepandunprecedenteddeclineintheHumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI),underminingsixyearsof pr ogr ess;• Asr ecipientsof43percentofglobalr emittanceinflows,thedevelopingeconomiesofAsiaandthePacificareespecially vulnerabletotheglobaleconomicstallanditsimpactonthetransferofr emittancesbymigrantworkers;

17、• T omitigatetheimpactofthepandemicinAfrica,theAfricanDevelopmentBankhasinvestedUSD10.2billiontoestablisha CrisisResponseFacility;• Datafr om31countriesovertheperiod2014to2019showthatabout1in5peopler eportedhavingexperienced discriminationonatleastoneofthegroundspr ohibitedbyinternationalh

18、umanrightslaw , highlightingtheneedforCOVID-19 r esponsestoensur ethatthepandemicdoesnotexacerbateexistingformsofdiscrimination;• Evenbefor ethepandemic,womendidthr eetimesmor eunpaiddomesticandcar ework thanmen;sincethepandemic, however , datafr omrapidgenderassessmentsurveysindicatethatwomeni

19、nsomer egionsareshoulderingtheextraburden ofanincr easedworkload,particularlyintermsofchildcar eandhouseholdchor es.Ther eportalsopr ovidesaglimpseofthechallengesfacedbynationalstatisticalsystems.Atatimewhenr eliableinformationis mor eessentialthanever , manysystemsarestrugglingtocompilebasicstatist

20、ics,dueinparttothepandemicbut alsobecauseof alackofr esour cesneededtomoder nizeoperationsandinfrastructur es.Thedataandstatisticspr esentedinthisr eportarebut thetipofaniceberg.Readersareencouragedtovisitthewebsitesofthe contributingorganizations,wher etheycanfindadditionalinformationontheimpactofC

21、OVID-19andothertopics.Lastly , wewouldliketogivespecialthankstotheCCSAsecr etariat(StatisticsDivisionofUNDESA)andtotheteamsatUNICEF andinthePopulationDivisionofUNDESA,ledbyMarkHer ewar dandJohnW ilmoth,respectively , whichjoinedfor cestoeditthis collectionofstatisticalinformationaboutthepandemic.W i

22、thouttheircommitmentanddedication,thisr eportwouldnothavebeen possible.AngelaMeChief,Resear chandT r endAnalysisBranch UNODCCo-chairCCSAHaishanFuDir ector , DevelopmentDataGr oup W orldBankCo-chairCCSA#StatisticalCoor dination 3T ableof C ontents4Differential success in mitigating the pandemic (UN D

23、ESA/PD). 8Global banking up in the initial phase of COVID-19 (BIS). 12 Need for high-quality data on a timely basis (ECB). 14 Aviation standstill with slow and shallow recovery (ICAO). 16 Working hours drop significantly(ILO). 18 Small, medium and vulnerable (OECD). 20 Many more children likely in m

24、onetary poor households (UNICEF). 22 Dramatic drop in foreign direct investment (UNCTAD). 24 Slow recovery after production slump (UNIDO). 26 Disruption of the international postal supply chain (UPU). 28 About 71 to 100 million people pushed into extreme poverty (WB). 30 Restrictions in exports (WTO

25、). 32Addressing widespread discrimina tion(OHCHR). 36 Human Development to decline for the firsttime since 1990 (UNDP).38 Adequate catch-up strategies to lessen impact on learning (UNESCO).40 Forcibly displaced disproportionally affected (UNHCR). 42 Violence against women during COVID-19 (UNODC). 44

26、 Gender inequality as society’s pre-existing condition (UN Women). 46Potential risk to remittances in Asia and the P acific(ADB). 50 AfDB’s response activities (AfDB). 52 Effects on the EU labour market (Eurostat). 54 GCC countries’ intervention policies (GCC-Stat). 56 Impact on po

27、verty and inequality in Latin America (ECLAC). 58 Impact on older persons in the Arab region (ESCWA). 60Impact on censuses of agriculture and mitigation measures (FAO). 64 NSOs and communicating COVID-19 (PARIS21). 66 Dashboards to monitor the COVID-19 impact (UN DESA/SD). 68 Data in support of COVI

28、D-19 response in cities (UN Habitat). 70 Responses by National Statistical Systems in Asia and the P acific(UN ESCAP). 72 Maintaining civil registration and vital statistics during the pandemic in Africa (UNECA). 74 The impact of COVID-19 on tourism statistics (UNWTO). 76 5 COVID-196ECONOMIC IMPACT

29、10 SOCIAL IMPACT 34 REGIONAL IMPACT 48 STATISTICAL IMPACT 62C o vid-19 6 #StatisticalCoor dination 7 Differential success in mitigating the pandemic Countries have experienced the COVID-19 pandemic under various circumstances and have adopted a variety of policy responses. Accordingly, they have exp

30、erienced a wide range of trends in their daily caseloads.Figure 1. Early epidemics Figure 2. Initial success, ongoing challengesSource: World Health Organization, Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at https:/covid-19.who.int/.Allcountrieshavebeenchallengedbythenovelcor onavirus, but theyhavenotallfar edthesame.Here,distinctivepatter ns areillustratedusingdailycountsofnewconfirmedcasesas r eportedtotheW orldHealthOrganization.Early scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic often depicted waves,includingapossiblesecondwaveinlate2020.Onthe ocean, waves follow tr oughs with