能源效率2020.docx

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1、Table of contentsExecutive summary101. Covid-19 and energy efficiency 14Buildings21Activity and structural impacts 23Technical efficiency impacts28Appliances33Activity and structural impacts 34Technical efficiency impacts36Industry 41Activity and structural impacts 42Technical efficiency impacts47Ur

2、ban transport50Activity and structural impacts 51Technical efficiency impacts55Long-distance transport 57Aviation and rail58Shipping 63Tracking policy responses to the crisis672. Energy efficiency jobs and the recovery79Energy efficiency in 201985Energy intensity and efficiency85Investments in futur

3、e energy efficiency gains87Buildings 89Transport 94Industry96List of figuresFigure 1.1 Average annual change in primary energy intensity improvement, historically and in the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario14Change in global primary energy demand and causes, 2018 compared with 201915P9AJ sai S26

4、 一= .山-Figure 1.2 Structural impact on economic sectors as a direct and indirect result of lockdowns18Page 16temperate weather in key parts of the world reduced the need for coal, gas and electricity for heating and cooling, which so energy demand was over 10% lower than would have been expected fro

5、m economic activity.IEA 2020. All rights reserved.Note: Red columns are factors that increased energy demand, green columns are factors that reduced energy demand.Source: IEA, Global Energy Review 2019.This final factor - weather - is critical to properly interpreting what first appears to be an imp

6、rovement in global energy intensity in 2019. Correcting for the weather, the energy intensity improvement rate in 2019 (1.6%) was almost identical to 2018 (1.5%).Box 1.1 Key terms used in this reportActivity: An action that creates demand for energy. A change in activity that effects a change in ene

7、rgy use is referred to as the “activity effect”.Structure: The mix of activities within an economy or sector. A change in structure that effects a change in energy use is referred to as the “structural effect”.Energy intensity: Energy use per unit of activity. Lower/higher energy intensity could ind

8、icate that energy is being used efficiently/inefficiently but not always. For example, making steel is an energy-intensive process, but energy intensity varies between steel factories for a range of reasons.Technical energy efficiency (technical efficiency): The ratio of energy use per unit of activ

9、ity or services provided by energy-using technologies, such as buildings, appliances and equipment, industrial equipment and processes, and vehicles. ForPage|15example, a car that uses 1 litre of fuel to travel 20 kilometres is more technically efficient than one that uses 2 litres of fuel to travel

10、 20 kilometres.The Covid-19 crisis adds a new layer of uncertainty for global efficiency effortsAgainst a backdrop of slow energy efficiency improvements, the Covid-19 crisis adds a new layer of uncertainty. First, the current economic crisis threatens to delay investments by businesses and househol

11、ds in mors efficient technologies. While investments may not have changed significantly yet (particularly as projects are often agreed years in advance), the resilience of investments will be tested in the coming years, particularly if the crisis deepens.Second, the crisis has triggered changes to b

12、ehaviour and markets that are also adding uncertainty about energy efficiency progress. For example, the unprecedented drop in aviation transport demand could change the energy intensity of international travel and freight forever, depending on how the aviation industry recovers after the pandemic.

13、Meanwhile, increased rates of teleworking are changing the way we move around cities. Such changes could reduce energy intensity in some instances but increase it in others.Third, the shape of government policy responses to the economic crisis will have a strong bearing on energy efficiency progress

14、, for better or worse. In industry, for example, stimulus funding in the past has sometimes resulted in ageing, inefficient facilities operating for longer. If governments do not consider the energy system in the design of Covid-19 stimulus packages, similar results could ensue.On the other hand, th

15、e socio-economic benefits of energy efficiency are now becoming widely recognised. Governments are starting to rise to the challenge of “building back better” from this crisis, announcing billions of dollars in stimulus spending to increase energy efficiency, particularly in buildings and transport.

16、Thus, while the full impact of the Covid-19 crisis may take years to properly understand, the crisis clearly poses both risks and opportunities for global energy efficiency.Page|162020: An atypical year for tracking changes in energy efficiencyOverall, the IEA expects global primary energy demand in

17、 2020 to decrease by 5.3% from 2019. With global GDP falling by 4.6%, primary energy intensity improvement is projected to increase by only 0.8%, the lowest rate since just after the last global economic crisis in 2010. This is well below the average annual improvement of more than 3% which would be

18、 consistent with meeting international climate and sustainability goals.However, exogenous shocks like the Covid-19 pandemic make it difficult to measure progress on energy efficiency accurately using metrics such as primary energy intensity Primary energy intensity is useful as a high-level indicat

19、or of global energy efficiency progress, reflecting how efficiently the world uses energy for economic growth. However, it is not appropriate for tracking demand-side or sectoral energy efficiency because it includes changes to the energy supply mix. It also includes the impact of structural changes

20、 in the economy (for example, shifts to more or less energy-intensive industries) so is not able to measure improvements in technical energy efficiency. Therefore, it is important to examine other metrics to assess energy efficiency progress, including metrics involving final energy demand. See Ener

21、av Efficiency Indicators: Fundamentals on Statistics.Page|17 because they have such large effects on both the numerator and denominator.P3AJ sai sr6_-In the current crisis, primary energy intensity mainly reflects the pandemics impacts on the economy rather than efforts to use energy more efficientl

22、y. For example, OECD analysis of five European economies shows that the crisis is likely to affect each economic sector directly and indirectly to varying degrees, with the largest impacts in the services sector. While these changes could increase energy intensity overall in these economies -as a hi

23、gher share of output comes from energy-intensive industry than from less energy-intensive services -they reveal nothing about changes in energy efficiency in these economies.daoo%Figure 1.3 Structural impact on economic sectors as a direct and indirect result of lockdownsIEA 2020. All rights reserve

24、d.Notes: GDP = Gross value-added + taxes - subsidies. Gross value-added (GVA) is a common proxy for output. This 川ustrative effect on GDP demonstrates a subsequent illustrative effect on gross value-added assuming constant taxes and subsidies.Source: OECD, Economic Outlook 2020.For the reasons above

25、, and to maximise its relevance for policy makers given the current, unique circumstances, Energy Efficiency 2020 differs from previous editions in focusing more on current market trends with possible implications for energy efficiency.To do so, it draws heavily on a range of frequently updated data

26、 from smart meters, smartphones and web searches, in addition to official energy statistics from governments.This report does not provide quantitative projections of future energy demand, intensity or technical efficiency. For scenario modelling of the pandemics possible impacts on energy demand and

27、 efficiency over the next 10 years, readers are directed to the World Energy Outlook 2020.Economic crises can increase energy intensityAlthough energy intensity may not be a reliable indicator of energy efficiency progress during the current crisis, historical energy intensity data, in concert with

28、historical economic data, are useful in projecting trends in the years immediately following the crisis.Historical GDP and energy intensity data suggest that large falls in GDP, like those occurring in 2020, tend to be followed by falls in the future energy intensity improvement rate. For example, g

29、lobal GDP in 2006 and 2007 was increasing at over 5% per annum, fell to 3% in 2008 then to zero in 2009. Energy intensity data showPage|18 corresponding falls in energy intensity improvements not only in 2008 and 2009, but also in 2010, when global GDP growth returned to pre-crisis levels of around

30、5%. This lag between falls in GDP and changes in energy intensity suggests that economic recessions can push down energy intensity beyond the immediate period of the economic downturn.Figure 1.4 GDP relationship with energy intensity improvements, 2000-20One reason for the longer-lasting impact of r

31、ecessions on energy intensity is that investment in technical efficiency improvements, as with investment in general, tends to slow in recessions, as business and household incomes become more uncertain. In 2020, the IEA estimates energy efficiency investment is likely to fall by around 9%, suggesti

32、ng the slow rate of energy intensity improvement will continue into 2021. Lower energy prices during recessions (due to lower demand) compound this effect by making energy efficiency investments a lower priority, as energy comprises a lower share of household and business costs.A weaker economy also

33、 lowers government tax revenues, which may prompt changes in government spending priorities, reducing public funding available for energy efficiency programmes.Unless governments intervene to support energy efficiency improvements, therefore, the adverse impacts of the current recession on global en

34、ergy intensity could linger, at least during the 12-month period after the economy bounces back.Data gathered by the end of the third quarter of 2020 and presented below suggest that while the impacts on technical efficiency have been relatively minor in the short term, a deepening recession may jeo

35、pardise technical efficiency improvements inPage|19coming years. In addition, although governments in some parts of the world appear to be recognising the need for energy efficiency measures by including them in stimulus spending, in other parts of the world, energy efficiency has yet to be prioriti

36、sed.This crisis presents an opportunity to shift to a more efficient energy system, with multiple benefitsAlthough economic crises can hinder energy intensity progress, there are several reasons why this crisis presents an opportunity for accelerating the shift to a more efficient energy system.Firs

37、t, unlike past recessions, the current one is the result of a health crisis that is forcing changes to workplaces and travel patterns. It is too early to predict the permanence of such changes; if efforts to manage the pandemic are successful, behaviour may quickly revert to pre-crisis patterns, or

38、become even more energy- intensive. However, some responses to the crisis - such as public investment in active transport infrastructure in cities - could reinforce behaviour that is more energy efficient, leading to permanent change.Second, this crisis is occurring against a backdrop of huge change

39、s to the energy system that provide opportunities to boost efficiency. The electrification of the energy system is continuing, and large- and small-scale renewable energy is growing rapidly. Solar power, in particular, has remained resilient during the pandemic and is set to increase its share of po

40、wer under all IEA scenarios.A greater share of variable renewables connected to grids requires new technologies, policies and regulatory approaches to manage electricity security and minimise overall investment requirements. In this context, the demand side of energy systems is becoming increasingly

41、 important, in terms of overall efficiency and as a provider of demand flexibility. Efficient end-use technologies lower overall system size requirements and hence grid investment needs. Efficient technologies that modulate energy use depending on when renewables are available are becoming more wide

42、spread, offering the possibility of improving both end-use and system efficiency.Third, investing in energy efficiency offers a wide range of benefits, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality. These benefits are particularly relevant given increasing evidence linking ai

43、r quality and health, including evidence from the current crisis. Efficiency also delivers socio-economic benefits that directly contribute to economic recovery, such as job creation and industrial productivity, as outlined in the IEA Sustainable Recovery Plan. Energyefficient economies are not only

44、 more productive but also more resilient in times of crisis. For example, energy-efficient social housing can help cap energy costs for the most vulnerable, while also reducing costs for public health budgets.Page|202. BuildingsA complex interplay of factors will determine how the Covid-19 crisis in

45、fluences energy intensity in the buildings sector in the coming years.In the short term, three trends are visible: a partial shift in energy demand from commercial to residential buildings, as social distancing measures and teleworking reduce peoples use of commercial buildings and increase energy u

46、sing activities in the home; on some metrics, this will increase the overall energy intensity of the buildings sectoran increase in the share of energy use from more energy-intensive sub-sectors, leading to higher energy intensity per unit of activity in commercial buildings restrictions in professi

47、onal contractors, access to residential properties, delaying technical efficiency upgrades; in some markets, however, increased rates of do- it-yourself renovations may be boosting technical efficiency.Table 2.1 Crisis-induced factors that could affect energy intensity in buildingsPotential impact o

48、nType of effectFactorenergy intensityimprovementMore activity in residential buildings; less in commercial buildings.Activity and structuralA greater share of services sector energy use comes from more energy-intensive services sub-sectors.砂Commercial building ventilation rates are increased for hea

49、lth reasons.Economic recession and job losses lead to lost income for owners (partly due to lower rental payments) and tenants, and lower rates of building renovation and stock turnover.Technical efficiencyContinuing low fuel prices prolong the payback period for building energy efficiency upgrades.Continued health risks prevent professional energy efficiency contractors