高盛对中国房地产开发商深度研究_42页_XXXX年.pdf

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1、February 22,2010 China:Real Estate Developers Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 1 February 22,2010 China:Real Estate Developers Reshuffling picks on new risk/reward analysis amid tightening Lowering target prices to reflect near-term tightening risk We lower our 12-month target prices across ou

2、r coverage group by 0%-32%after increasing our target price discounts to NAV by 0-20 percentage points(to within a range of 10%-40%from our prior 0%-30%range).This reflects our concern of greater uncertainty arising from recent government macro tightening.Although we believe its purpose is to slow,r

3、ather than reverse,Chinas economic recovery,we believe the tightening could affect the pace of developers selling properties or realizing their land bank value in the near-term and could therefore weigh on share price performance.Current share prices are approaching our bear-case valuation Recent fa

4、lls mean share prices are on average only 8%higher than our bear-case year-end 2010 NAV.We view our bear-case NAV as attractive entry levels;as we would expect potentially less stringent government tightening and/or strong property transaction volume support in the event that our bear-case plays out

5、 that is 30%reduction in property price from current levels and 35%fall in volume over 2009.Even though current share prices remain considerably above our worst-case year-end 2010E NAV of a 45%price fall from current levels and a 35%fall in volume we think this scenario is very unlikely unless there

6、 is a China economy double dip.Picking stocks on risk/reward against our base and bear cases(1)We like stocks that screen as having significant potential upside to our base-case valuations(our 12-month target prices)as well as limited downside to our bear-case NAV.The reverse is true for our Sell-ra

7、ted stocks.(2)We expect Shenzhens residential property market to be more volatile in the near-term amid government policy tightening there given higher speculative activities in the city.(3)We think the policy outlook for commercial property is more stable,although we do not expect a strong recovery

8、 in office rentals in key cities in 2010.We upgrade Yanlord(YNLG.SI)to Buy from Neutral,Franshion(817.HK)to Neutral from Sell,downgrade SZI(604.HK)(to Conv.list)and Greentown(3900.HK)to Sell from Neutral.We retain Buy on Agile(3383.HK),Fantasia(1777.HK),R&F(2777.HK;on CL),Shimao(813.HK),Powerlong(12

9、38.HK),Sino-Ocean(3377.HK),E-house(EJ),Vanke A/B(0/200002.SZ),Gemdale(600383.SS)and Poly(600048.SS),but add Fantasia to our Conv.list in place of Shimao.We retain Sell on CRL(1109.HK)and CWTC(600007.SS).Key risk:Government over-tightening that induces macro hard landing.OUR BASE,BEAR,AND WORST-CASE

10、VALUATIONS 18-FebRatingLCY12-mth TPUpside/downsideUpside/downsideUpside/downsideFantasiaB*HK$2.63 59%2.10 27%1.66 1%Vanke(B)BHK$11.27 42%9.74 23%6.87 -13%GemdaleBRmb17.45 41%10.33 -16%7.03 -43%PowerlongBHK$2.96 39%2.86 34%2.02 -6%R&FB*HK$15.54 38%9.89 -12%6.21 -45%ShimaoBHK$16.35 35%9.78 -19%6.38 -4

11、7%Vanke(A)BRmb12.47 33%8.38 -11%5.91 -37%E-HouseBUS$22.78 32%15.08 -12%8.62 -50%PolyBRmb25.51 31%16.00 -18%9.15 -53%Yanlord BS$2.28 30%1.65 -6%1.16 -34%AgileBHK$12.88 30%8.20 -17%4.56 -54%HuafaNRmb19.82 29%12.22 -20%9.49 -38%Sino OceanBHK$8.45 29%6.20 -5%3.76 -43%OCTNRmb18.81 23%13.60 -11%10.70 -30%

12、Shui On LandNHK$4.63 22%4.18 10%2.32 -39%ForteNHK$2.41 18%1.90 -7%0.92 -55%Country GardenNHK$3.05 17%2.01 -23%1.09 -58%SOHO NHK$4.38 16%4.29 14%3.51 -7%COLINHK$17.37 16%12.11 -19%8.76 -42%KWGNHK$5.89 16%3.92 -23%2.31 -55%CMP(A)NRmb26.16 15%22.20 -3%18.90 -17%Financial StreetNRmb12.20 14%11.63 9%9.20

13、 -14%FranshionNHK$2.82 11%2.31 -9%1.65 -35%GreentownSHK$10.62 10%7.36 -24%4.11 -57%CRLSHK$15.84 3%11.06 -28%7.80 -49%SZInvS*HK$2.83 -1%2.18 -24%1.25 -56%CWTCSRmb8.49 -22%7.88 -28%6.06 -44%Average23%-8%-38%Base-case price targets Bear-case valuation Worst-case valuation*This stock is on our regional

14、Conviction list.B=Buy,N=Neutral,S=Sell.Prices as of February 18,2010.Source:DataStream,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.IN THIS REPORT 1.We establish our bear-case valuations to help investors gain exposure to those stocks with the most attractive risk-reward profiles.2.Our assessment of develo

15、pers financial risks in our bear and worst-case scenarios.3.We analyze whether government social housing investment is sufficient to offset the possible slowdown in the private sector if our bear-case assumptions are realized.4.We analyze the possible supply outlook in Chinas major cities by reviewi

16、ng the historical experience in Shanghais property market during 2005-2006.Yi Wang,CFA+86(21)2401-8930| Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Jason Sun+86(10)6627-3187| Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Wendy(Yunting)Luo+86(21)2401-8921| Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Vicky

17、 Li+86(21)2401-8926| Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited and its affiliates do and seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affec

18、t the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification,see the end of the text.Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification,or contact your investment representative.Beijing Gao Hua S

19、ecurities Company Limited Investment ResearchFebruary 22,2010 China:Real Estate Developers Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 2 Table of contents Navigating the tightening cycle;introducing our bear-case valuation 2 Widening our target price discounts to our base-case 2010E NAV 5 We see our bear

20、-case valuation as offering attractive entry levels 8 Balance sheet stress testing in our bear-and worst-case scenarios 16 Market concern on oversupply in 2010 is overdone,in our view 18 Yanlord:Upgrade to Buy on risk/reward after share price correction 25 Fantasia:To Conv.list on scale expansion an

21、d appealing valuation 27 SZI:Downgrade to Conv.Sell on market pressure Shenzhen 29 Greentown China:Downgrade to Sell on lower high-end volume 31 Franshion Properties:Fewer headwinds for commercial property 33 Shimao:Removing from our Conviction list,but still Buy 36 Appendix:Earnings,margins,gearing

22、 sensitivity analysis 39 Disclosures 41 The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of February 18,2010.Navigating the tightening cycle;introducing our bear-case valuation Pricing in uncertainties arising from macro tightening We lower our 12-month target prices by 0%-32%acro

23、ss our coverage group after increasing our target price discounts to NAV by 0-20 percentage points to within a range of 10%-40%from our previous 0%-30%range.This reflects our concern of greater uncertainty arising from government macro tightening.Although we believe the purpose of this tightening is

24、 to slow,rather than reverse,Chinas economic recovery,we believe it could affect the pace of developers selling properties or realizing their land bank value in the near-term and could therefore weigh on share price performance.We believe the situation today is similar to that in early 2004 when the

25、 Chinese government was concerned about mounting inflation risk and imposed various tightening measures.As such,we expect the sectors near-term performance might mirror stock performance during 2004-2005.As shown in Exhibit 1,after its share price fell on policy tightening in April 2004,COLIs valuat

26、ion did not recover until CPI peaked in 3Q04.For China Vanke,we saw a similar pattern in its valuation(from early 2004 to early 2005),although its share price movements were more volatile than COLIs during late 2004 and early 2005.February 22,2010 China:Real Estate Developers Gao Hua Securities Inve

27、stment Research 3 Exhibit 1:Historical trading P/B of China Vanke and COLI along with CPI,GDP and interest rate trends 024681012Jan/02Jul/02Feb/03Sep/03Apr/04Nov/04Jun/05Jan/06Aug/06Mar/07Oct/07Apr/08Nov/08Jun/09Jan/10-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%COLI P/B(LHS)Vanke P/B(LHS)CPI yoy growth(RHS)Real GDP yo

28、y growth(RHS)Lending rates 5 yrs(RHS)GS forecast(X)Fluctuating valuations within a tight range during the tightening Source:DataStream,CEIC,Company data,Gao Hua Securities Research,Goldman Sachs Research.Share prices are approaching our bear-case valuations,which we view as attractive entry levels R

29、ecent falls mean share prices are on average only 8%higher than our bear-case year-end 2010 NAV.We view our bear-case NAVs as attractive entry levels as we would expect potentially less stringent government tightening and/or strong property transaction volume support in the event that our bear-case

30、plays out that is a 30%reduction in price from current levels and a 35%fall in volume over 2009.Under our bear-case scenario we estimate affordability would return to levels over 2005-2006 in most cities.Exhibit 2:Summary of our property price and volume assumptions in our base and bear cases 2010E

31、NAVVolume PriceBase-caseDown 15%from 2009 levelDown 10%from current level and 10%p.a.increase in 2011E and 2012EBear-caseDown 35%from 2009 levelDown 30%from current level and flat onwardsWorst-caseDown 35%from 2009 levelDown 45%from current level and flat onwards Source:Gao Hua Securities Research e

32、stimates.We also introduce our worst-case year-end 2010E NAV,in which we assume the China economy double dips and prices fall a more significant 45%from current levels.Chinas overall property market has never experienced such a deep fall in prices,even in 2008,and the only localized fall of that mag

33、nitude was in Shenzhen falling from its 2007 peak.February 22,2010 China:Real Estate Developers Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 4 Current share prices remain considerably above our worst-case year-end 2010E NAV assumptions of a 45%price fall from current level and a 35%fall in volume.We belie

34、ve the only possibility of this scenario occurring would be a China economy double dip.We believe governments tightening purpose is to slow,rather than reverse,Chinas economic recovery.Stock picks are based on risk/reward to our base and bear cases We select our top Buy and Sell picks among China pr

35、operty companies on three criteria.(1)We like stocks that screen as having significant potential upside to our base-case valuations(our 12 month target price)as well as limited downside to our bear-case NAV.The reverse is true for our Sell-rated stocks.We upgrade Yanlord to Buy.Our 12-month NAV base

36、d price target implies 30%potential upside,and our bear-case implies 6%potential downside.We downgrade Greentown to Sell from Neutral.The stock has limited potential upside to our target price 10%,but has considerable 24%potential downside to our bear-case NAV.We add Fantasia(Buy)on our Conviction B

37、uy list in place of Shimao(Buy)as it screens better under our risk/reward framework,offering 59%potential upside to our target price and 27%potential upside to our bear-case NAV,compared with 35%upside and 19%downside for Shimao.(2)We expect the Shenzhen residential property market to be more volati

38、le than other markets in the near-term amid government policy tightening there,given higher speculative activities in the city.We downgrade Shenzhen Investment to Sell and add it to our Conviction list.The stock has 1%potential downside to our target price and 24%potential downside to our bear-case

39、NAV.(3)We think the policy outlook for commercial property is more stable,although we do not expect a strong recovery in office rentals in key cities in 2010.We upgrade Franshion to Neutral from Sell.In our view,further re-rating of the stock hinges on the strength of the recovery in the Beijing and

40、 Shanghai office markets,which we do not expect to happen in 2010.We also retain our Buy ratings on R&F(Conviction list),Agile,Sino-Ocean,Powerlong,E-house,Vanke A/B,Poly and Gemdale.We retain our Sell ratings on CRL and CWTC.Three stock-price drivers We see three key drivers that will push stocks t

41、oward our 12-month target prices:A more relaxed policy/credit environment if the risk of inflation subsides,which we expect to happen in 2H10.Transaction volume recovery,fueled by an improvement in the credit environment possibly in 2H10 and growing confidence among households on future wage growth.

42、Rmb appreciation,which our China economists expect to accelerate in 3Q10.February 22,2010 China:Real Estate Developers Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 5 Risks to our thesis Key downside risk to our investment view is government over-tightening that induces macro hard landing.This could result

43、 in worse-than expected-physical market property price and transaction volume performance.Key upside risk to our investment view is better-than-our expected physical market performance,despite government macro tightening.We assume a 10%fall in prices from current levels and a 15%fall in volume in ou

44、r base-case valuation.Widening our target price discounts to our base-case 2010E NAV We are increasing our 12-month target price discounts to NAV by 0-20 percentage points to within a range of 10%-40%(from our previous 0%-30%range)to reflect the near-term uncertainties arising from China governments

45、 macro tightening that,in our view,could weigh on share price performance until macro risk(mainly inflation)is subdued.We keep all our 2010E base-case NAV estimates unchanged.Exhibit 3:New target price discount to 2010E NAV NewOld Chg(ppts)Greentown 3900.HK-40%-20%-20 Powerlong1238.HK-40%-30%-10 She

46、nzhen Investment0604.HK-40%-20%-20 Fantasia1777.HK-30%-20%-10 Guangzhou R&F2777.HK-30%-10%-20 KWG 1813.HK-30%-20%-10 Shanghai Forte 2337.HK-30%-20%-10 Shui On Land0272.HK-30%-20%-10 SOHO China0410.HK-30%-20%-10 CMP(A)000024.SZ-30%-10%-20 Vanke(B)200002.SZ-30%-20%-10 CWTC600007.SS-30%-20%-10 Huafa600

47、325.SS-30%-10%-20 Agile 3383.HK-20%-10%-10 CRL1109.HK-20%-10%-10 Country Garden2007.HK-20%-10%-10 Shimao 0813.HK-20%-10%-10 Sino-Ocean 3377.HK-20%-10%-10 Financial Street000402.SZ-20%-10%-10 Gemdale600383.SS-20%-10%-10 OCT000069.SZ-20%-10%-10 YanlordYNLG.SI-20%-10%-10 Franshion0817.HK-10%-10%0Poly 6

48、00048.SS-10%0%-10 COLI0688.HK-10%0%-10 Vanke(A)000002.SZ-10%0%-10 EhouseEJ16.7X20.0X-3.3XAverage-25%-13%-12 TickerTarget price disc.to NAV Note:Our 12-month target price for E-house is based on 2010 diluted non-GAAP EPS forecast.Our P/E multiple(16.7x)for E-house is based on a 20%premium(the histori

49、cal average premium level the stock has traded at relative to developers average)over our target price implied 2010 P/E multiple(13.9x)for our off-shore developer coverage.Source:Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.February 22,2010 China:Real Estate Developers Gao Hua Securities Investment Researc

50、h 6 Exhibit 4:Summary of changes to our 12-month target prices and ratings LCYEnd-10E NAVTP disc.to NAVNew TPNew ratingOld TP Old rating Chg in TPShr price as of Feb 18upside/downsideFantasia(HK$)3.75-30%2.63 Buy*3.00 Buy-12%1.6559%Vanke(B)(HK$)16.11-30%11.27 Buy13.30 Buy-15%7.9442%Gemdale(Rmb)21.81