珠宝行业FrankToney博士讲座（英文）.pptx

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1、MGT 251:Scheduling & Cost Control,Dr. Frank ToneyInstructor Notes,1,Notes for UMT Page 1-1,Agenda,Schedule* Start Stop* Breaks every 50 minutesSocratic methodMaterials: notebook, supplemental notes, benchmarking practicesHomework: Olympics web sites. Each team 2 articles about costs or schedule.

2、 Note Web SiteTest on SundayBeijing Olympics case studyCulture,2,UMT 1-1,Franks bio,Education: MBA from U of Toledo, Doctorate from Nova Southeastern U, PMP. UOP Doc Leadership Chair; GWU; U of California faculty.Leadership: CEO of 5 companies; 4 boards, 2 trustsWriting: 7 leadership & project m

3、anagement books. Many articles. Board of Best Practices Journal.Project Management: Projects in over 20 countries. PMI Activities: Standards, Research, Academic committees. Benchmarking: Lead Top 500 Project Management Benchmarking Forum. 120 companies.Personal: Wife & 3 kids, like to fly. Live

4、in Scottsdale, AZ,3,UMT 1-1,Introduction to Scheduling & Cost Control Document Flow,4,Notes for UMT Page 1-1,Introduction to Scheduling & Cost Control Why Scheduling & Cost Control are Important,Major problem now in I/T industry. 300 400% over estimates.Helps allocate resourcesGuides pro

5、ject performanceEstablishes performance baselines evaluate performanceHelps manage project change80% of project problems originate in planningPresents image of professionalism,5,Notes for UMT Page 1-1,Introduction to Scheduling & Cost Control Objectives of the Course,Improve career opportunities

6、Improve organizational performanceLearn estimating that is valid, reliable, accurate.Apply forecasting techniquesUnderstand risk estimating & evaluationUnderstand the WBS: its impact on scheduling, costing, risk analysisInvestigate the critical chain conceptLearn project evaluation techniquesUnd

7、erstand project control methodsDetail EVM techniquesLearn project closeout tools,6,Notes for UMT Page 1-1,Introduction to Scheduling & Cost Control Structure of the Course,Module 1: EstimatingModule 2: Estimating best practicesModule 3: Cost estimating basicsModule 4: ForecastingModule 5: Estima

8、tion & riskModule 6: WBS & scheduling introductionModule 7: Critical chain & time boxed schedulingModule 8: Project evaluationModule 9: Project controlModule 10: Earned value managementModule 11: Project close-out,7,UMT 1-1,Modules 1 & 2: EstimatingObjectives of Modules 1 & 2,Exp

9、lain the importance of EstimatingDescribe estimating problemsPresent best estimating practicesExplain measurement theory & practice,8,Notes for UMT Page 1-2,Modules 1 & 2: Estimating Preamble 1-3Predicting the Future,Historical* Prophets, seers, visionaries* Two components (a) the prediction

10、, (b) had to come true.* Spiritual, mystical overtonesModern* Intuition* PragmaticIncludes * Quantitative analysis: math, observe, measure, replicate* Qualitative: abstract (love, spirit), intuition,9,UMT 1-1,Modules 1 & 2: Estimating (p 1-5)Formal vs. Informal Estimates,Formal estimates: retain

11、ed as part of the project record.* Schedule* Budget* MemosInformal estimates: no record kept.* Casual discussions and predictions,10,UMT 1-1,Modules 1: EstimatingTime, Money, Resources: Constraints & Assumptions,11,Notes for UMT 1-10,Module 2: Good EstimatingOther Estimating Guidelines,Padding e

12、stimates means the project starts on an inaccurate base Estimates fail to adequately account for risk Scope changes are not accounted for Ethical dilemmas result from political pressure and low ballingEstablish an accuracy state of mindUse the project team,12,Notes from UMT page 2-7,Module 2: Good E

13、stimating Establish Clear Measurement Metrics,Metrics characteristics * Simple, easy to understand, interpret and compile, reliable, and comparable * Lend themselves to being rolled-up into portfolio wide statistics * Encourage behavior that results in positive project and portfolio results Metrics

14、Problems * Measurement, compiling, analyzing and reporting of performance metrics are expensive * Face-to-face management of projects may be sacrificed * Too much emphasis on easy-to-obtain quantitative metrics,13,Notes for UMT page 2-8,Module 2: Good Estimating Potential Metrics Used,Customer satis

15、factionMilestonesDeliverablesCritical path monitoringPeriodic reviewsFinancial and Non time based performance measurements Other quantitative measurements Subjective performance measures Portfolio performance measurementsMeasure the cost of professional project managersThe cost of the project organi

16、zation,14,Notes for UMT page 2-8,Module 3: Cost Estimating BasicsObjectives of Module 3,Chart of accounts top down vs. bottom-upParametric/analogous estimatingDesigning to costLevel of effort estimates,15,Notes for UMT page 3-2,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics Basic Estimating Considerations,The pro

17、ject manager is responsible for the project estimatesEstimating is time consuming and expensiveEstimate to an appropriate level of detail Budget in cash Include the forgotten items (maintenance, petty cash)Communicate the manner in which estimates can change,16,Notes for UMT page 3-2,Module 3: Cost

18、Estimating Basics Communicate Assumptions and Level of Accuracy,17,Notes for UMT page 3-5,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics Budget Type Impacts Speed, Efficiency and Effectiveness,Bottom up budgets are detailedTop down budgets are fastZero base budgets justify all expenses and revenuesCheck-book budg

19、ets are easiestPercentage base budgeting builds on a solid foundationProgressive and rolling budgets compensate for scope changes,18,Notes for UMT page 3-9,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics Universal Code of Accounts Increases Budget Accuracy Through Benchmarking,19,Notes for UMT page 3-15,Module 3:

20、Cost Estimating Basics Percentage of Revenue:Combining top down & bottom up,Prior Year % of Sales Next Year % of Sales (Same as Last Year)Cash inflowRevenue 1,500,000 100% 1,650,000 100% Cash OutflowCost of Goods 1,000,000 67% 1,105,500 67% - - - - Gross Margin 500,000 33% 544,500 33% Direct Exp

21、enses: Store Rental 72,000 4.8% 79,200 4.8% Utilities 26,000 1.7% 28,050 1.7% Labor 180,000 12% 198,000 12% Advertising 120,000 8% 132,000 8% - - - -Total Expenses 398,000 26% 437,250 26%Indirect Exp 50,000 3.3% 54,450 3.3%PROFIT 52,000 3.5% 52,800 3.2% (rounding error)Most popular method of forecas

22、ting & budgetingAlways budget based on actual cash flows. Show cash inflows and outflows not payables and receivables.,20,Notes for UMT page 3-18,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics Define the Types of Costs Contained in the Budget,Use standard costs to increase speed and ease understandingDirect c

23、osts are associated with one projectIndirect costs & overhead are spread over more than one project Budget for direct or controllable expenses Variable vs. fixed costs. Q: Equipment. Fixed cost of $1,500. Variable of $100 per unit. What is cost of 10 extra units? (A: $1,000),21,Notes for UMT pag

24、e 3-18,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics Cost Basic Estimating Tools and Techniques,Learning curve* Parametric tool* Double #s of time to do something duration of time reduced.Law of diminishing returns. Q: extra cost vs. extra revenue.Depreciation Cost management plan. Describes the management of co

25、st variances (scope changes),22,Notes from UMT page 3-18,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics Team ActivityThe Bid Proposal is the Toughest Budgeting Task,Preparing the Bid ProposalYour small information systems company has been asked to bid a project for a large, local oil refinery. The company is know

26、n for establishing long term and profitable relationships with vendors that have exhibited superior performance. It is important that your organization be awarded this bid. You know that two other, well respected IS companies are also bidding the job. Your task is to prepare a budget consisting of y

27、our best estimate of the true costs of the project. From this, select a bid price. Clearly differentiate between your estimated total cost for performing the project and your bid price. Raw data is given on the next graphic:,23,Notes for UMT page 3-20,Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics Break Out: The

28、Bid Proposal Raw Data,24,Notes for UMT page 3-20,Module 4: ForecastingObjectives of Module 4,Normative vs. extrapolative forecastingTrend extrapolationMultiple regressionDelphi Methodology,25,Notes for UMT page 4-2,Module 4: Forecasting Budgets and Forecasts can be more Accurate,Contingency reserves

29、 reduce risk of over runs in meeting objectivesManagement reserves for unknownsBudget for accuracy, use contingency funds for riskApply contingency and buffer psychology,26,Notes for UMT page 4-32,Module 4: Forecasting Parametric & Analogous Estimating Improve Accuracy through Simplifications,He

30、uristics give a rough idea of costs. Gross margin in manufacturing this type of product is 45%.Parametric estimates are simple formulas. The last house I built like this was $100 per foot. Therefore the cost will be about $200,000. Analogous data is gained from prior projects. The last house I built

31、 like this cost about $200,000. I would expect this one to be about the same. Includes data bases like the UCO Accounts.,27,Notes for UMT page 4-32,Module 5: Estimating & RiskObjectives of Module 5,Impact of risk on estimatesEvaluation of risk factorsEstimating risk vs. uncertaintyIncorporating

32、pessimism (beta distributions)Triangular distributionsMonte Carlo AnalysisRisk assessment groupsLife cycle costingData gathering/data bases,28,Notes for UMT page 5-2,Module 5: Estimating & RiskGeneric Risk Evaluation Matrix,29,Notes for UMT page 5-5,Module 5: Estimating & RiskOther Sources o

33、f Risk Identification,WBS: Still an an important toolStaffing plan: any potential people risks?Procurement management plan: opportunities or risks related to vendors?,30,Notes for UMT page 5-5,Module 5: Estimating & Risk EMV: Most Popular Quantitative Tools for Risk Analysis (PMBOK p139),Statist

34、ical independence: Used for EMV and decision trees. Tossing a coin. Events are independent of each other.Expected monetary value: Impacted by risk proneness or risk aversiveness,31,Notes for UMT page 5-5,Module 6: The Work Breakdown Structure& Project Scheduling BasicsObjectives,Work breakdown s

35、tructure details of construction and benefitsWBS as basis for costingWBS as basis for schedulingScheduling basics,32,Notes for UMT page 6-2,Module 6: The Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure defines the Scope of the Project,We love the WBSHeart of the project planning and definition effo

36、rt.Technique for breaking down the project into its component elements.Not mandatory but importantNo hard or fast rules about putting it together.Not a a scheduling toolDoes not show dependencies,33,Notes for UMT page 6-2,Module 6: The Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure Benefits,Shows

37、the project visuallyBuilds the teamFocuses on deliverablesForces planning and methodologyIdentifies work packages and groups of activitiesServes as the basis for scheduling, cost, spec details, performance measurement, metrics.,34,Notes for UMT page 6-2,Module 6: Project Scheduling Estimating Consid

38、erations: How Long is Time?,Working time or work daysProductive timeElapsed timeProductivity levelContinuous durationDuration interruptible,35,Notes for UMT page 6-39,Module 6: Project Scheduling Schedule Supporting Detail,Responsibility assignment matrix. Activities and whose is responsible.Resourc

39、e spreadsheet. Effort needed from each resource during each time period.Resource Gantt chart. When each resource is scheduled per task.Resource histogram. Alternative schedulesScheduled contingency reserves.,36,Notes for UMT page 6-39,Module 6: Project Scheduling Other Scheduling Considerations,Reso

40、urce Leveling Adds time usuallyResource constrained schedule i.e., cash, EinsteinTime-constrained (Y2K).Reverse resource allocation,37,Notes for UMT page 6-39,Module 7: Critical Chain & Time-Boxed Scheduling Objectives of the Module,Application of critical chain as a management toolInvestigate t

41、he psychological dimensions of schedulingUsing buffers to increase scheduling accuracyTime-boxed scheduling to increase project speedManaging the playersMiscellaneous time-boxed issues,38,Notes for UMT page 7-2,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling Increasing Project Speed,Multi-functional project managem

42、entOverlapping project phasesModularize (sub-projects)Value analysisTime management,39,Notes for UMT page 7-48,Module 7: Critical Chain & Time-Boxed Scheduling Multi-functional Project Management,40,Notes for UMT page 7-21 & 7-48,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling Fast Tracking: Overlapping Pha

43、ses,41,Notes for UMT Page 7-48,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling Modularize (Sub-projects) for speed,42,Notes for UMT page 7-48,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling Fast Tracking,Value Analysis for improved speed and cost * Review each activity related to time and cost* Critically review the processes* Rev

44、iew elapsed time vs. work time* Can activities be done concurrently,43,UMT 1-1,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling Value Analysis for Speed,Purpose: The value analysis is a rigorous review of project costs and work packages. It is used to reduce schedule duration and costs. Consider Elimination of any p

45、roject activity, product, or service component that does not satisfy these evaluation questionsWhat are highest priorities?It clearly contributes to value. Its time & cost is proportionate to its usefulness. All the activities and features are needed. It is the best available for the intended us

46、e. It represents the fastest & lowest cost method of attaining the objective. It is faster & lower cost than a standard product or contract service i.e. It uses the proper tooling, equipment, (resources) and procedures considering the volumes involved. It is faster & lower cost than comp

47、arable goods or services provided by suppliers. Our speed is fastest and costs are the lowest in the industry. Its specifications are the least restrictive needed to achieve the objective. There are no ways to reduce time & cost that we have not considered. Can we use standard parts, components,

48、 approaches?,44,Notes for UMT page 7-48,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling Time Management for Speed,High schedule & cost disciplineBring in higher quality project leader and team membersInvolve vendors & stakeholdersWork longer hours & weekends.Add extra shifts.Add people to critical pathU

49、se extra resources to complete non-critical path work packages early. Free resources later.,45,Notes for UMT page 7-48,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling Discipline Increases Project Speed,Positive definition from the Greek: to train, instruct, correctMost research about teensWhy need discipline:* Huma

50、n nature to resist being forced; to question authority* Desire peer recognition, attention, power, revenge, feel inadequateMost problems are minor and easy to resolvePeople and teams want discipline* Expect orderliness* Fewer distractions* Clear expectations* More productivity* Reduces stress,46,UMT 1-1,Module 7: Time-Boxed Scheduling Discipline Increases Project Speed (p2),How discipline* The leader is key* Be a role model* Be visible* Accept resp