财务管理培训课件lecture8(ch8)(19页PPT).pptx

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1、The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-1Irwin/McGraw-HillIrwin/McGraw-HillChapter 8Fundamentals of Corporate FinanceThird EditionProject AnalysisBrealey Myers Marcusslides by Matthew WillIrwin/McGraw-HillThe McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,2001The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-2Irwin/McGraw-HillTopics C

2、overedHow Firms Organize Their Investment ProcessSome“What If”QuestionsSensitivity AnalysisBreak Even AnalysisFlexibility in Capital BudgetingDecision TreesOptionsThe McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-3Irwin/McGraw-HillCapital Budgeting ProcessCapital Budget-The list of planned investment projects.Th

3、e Decision Process1-Develop and rank all investment projects2-Authorize projects based on:Govt regulationProduction efficiencyCapacity requirementsNPV The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-4Irwin/McGraw-HillCapital Budgeting ProcessCapital Budgeting ProblemsConsistent forecastsConflict of interestFor

4、ecast biasSelection criteria(NPV and others)The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-5Irwin/McGraw-HillHow To Handle UncertaintySensitivity Analysis-Analysis of the effects of changes in sales,costs,etc.on a project.Scenario Analysis-Project analysis given a particular combination of assumptions.Simulat

5、ion Analysis-Estimation of the probabilities of different possible outcomes.Break Even Analysis-Analysis of the level of sales(or other variable)at which the company breaks even.The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-6Irwin/McGraw-HillSensitivity AnalysisExampleGiven the expected cash flow forecasts l

6、isted on the next slide,determine the NPV of the project given changes in the cash flow components using an 8%cost of capital.Assume that all variables remain constant,except the one you are changing.The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-7Irwin/McGraw-HillSensitivity AnalysisExample-continuedNPV=$478

7、The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-8Irwin/McGraw-HillSensitivity AnalysisExample-continued Possible OutcomesThe McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-9Irwin/McGraw-HillSensitivity AnalysisExample-continuedNPV Calculations for Pessimistic Investment ScenarioNPV=($121)The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018

8、-10Irwin/McGraw-HillSensitivity AnalysisExample-continuedNPV PossibilitiesThe McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-11Irwin/McGraw-HillBreak Even AnalysisExampleGiven the forecasted data on the next slide,determine the number of planes that the company must produce in order to break even,on an NPV basis.

9、The companys cost of capital is 10%.The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-12Irwin/McGraw-HillBreak Even AnalysisThe McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-13Irwin/McGraw-HillBreak Even AnalysisAnswerThe break even point,is the#of Planes Sold that generates a NPV=$0.The present value annuity factor of a 6 y

10、ear cash flow at 10%is 4.355Thus,The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-14Irwin/McGraw-HillAnswerSolving for“Planes Sold”Break Even AnalysisThe McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-15Irwin/McGraw-HillOperating LeverageOperating Leverage-The degree to which costs are fixed.Degree of Operating Leverage(DOL)

11、-Percentage change in profits given a 1 percent change in sales.The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-16Irwin/McGraw-HillOperating LeverageExample-A company has sales outcomes that range from$16mil to$19 mil,Depending on the economy.The same conditions can produce profits in the range from$550,000 to

12、$1,112,000.What is the DOL?The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-17Irwin/McGraw-HillFlexibility&OptionsDecision Trees-Diagram of sequential decisions and possible outcomes.Decision trees help companies determine their Options by showing the various choices and outcomes.The Option to avoid a loss or p

13、roduce extra profit has value.The ability to create an Option thus has value that can be bought or sold.The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.,20018-18Irwin/McGraw-HillDecision TreesNPV=0Dont testTest (Invest$200,000)SuccessFailurePursue project NPV=$2millionStop projectNPV=01、每一个成功者都有一个开始。勇于开始，才能找到成功的路。11月

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