现代企业现值与资本预算方案(31页PPT).pptx

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1、McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-1ChapterOutline7.1IncrementalCashFlows7.2TheBaldwinCompany:AnExample7.3InflationandCapitalBudgeting7.4InvestmentsofUnequalLives:TheEquivalentAnnualCostMethod7.5SummaryandConclusions第一页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/Irwi

2、nCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-27.1IncrementalCashFlowsCashflowsmatternotaccountingearnings.Sunkcostsdontmatter.Incrementalcashflowsmatter.Opportunitycostsmatter.Sideeffectslikecannibalismanderosionmatter.Taxesmatter:wewantincrementalafter-taxcashflows.Inflati

3、onmatters.第二页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-3CashFlowsNotAccountingEarnings.Considerdepreciationexpense.Youneverwriteacheckmadeoutto“depreciation”.Muchoftheworkinevaluatingaprojectliesintakingaccountingnumbersandgeneratingcashflows

4、.第三页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-4IncrementalCashFlowsSunkcostsarenotrelevantJustbecause“wehavecomethisfar”doesnotmeanthatweshouldcontinuetothrowgoodmoneyafterbad.Opportunitycostsdomatter.JustbecauseaprojecthasapositiveNPVthatdoe

5、snotmeanthatitshouldalsohaveautomaticacceptance.SpecificallyifanotherprojectwithahigherNPVwouldhavetobepassedupweshouldnotproceed.Sideeffectsmatter.Erosionandcannibalismarebothbadthings.Ifournewproductcausesexistingcustomerstodemandlessofcurrentproducts,weneedtorecognizethat.第四页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-H

6、ill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-5EstimatingCashFlowsCashFlowsfromOperationsRecallthat:OperatingCashFlow=EBITTaxes+DepreciationNetCapitalSpendingDontforgetsalvagevalue(aftertax,ofcourse).ChangesinNetWorkingCapitalRecallthatwhentheprojectwindsdown,weenjoy

7、areturnofnetworkingcapital.第五页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-6InterestExpenseLaterchapterswilldealwiththeimpactthattheamountofdebtthatafirmhasinitscapitalstructurehasonfirmvalue.Fornow,itsenoughtoassumethatthefirmslevelofdebt(hence

8、interestexpense)isindependentoftheprojectathand.第六页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-77.2TheBaldwinCompany:AnExampleCostsoftestmarketing(alreadyspent):$250,000.Currentmarketvalueofproposedfactorysite(whichweown):$150,000.Costofbowling

9、ballmachine:$100,000(depreciatedaccordingtoACRS5-yearlife).Increaseinnetworkingcapital:$10,000.Production(inunits)byyearduring5-yearlifeofthemachine:5,000,8,000,12,000,10,000,6,000.Priceduringfirstyearis$20;priceincreases2%peryearthereafter.Productioncostsduringfirstyearare$10perunitandincrease10%pe

10、ryearthereafter.Annualinflationrate:5%WorkingCapital:initially$10,000changeswithsales.第七页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-8TheWorksheetforCashFlowsoftheBaldwinCompanyYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5 Investments:(1)Bowlingballmac

11、hine100.0021.76*(2)Accumulated20.0052.0071.2082.7294.24depreciation(3)Adjustedbasisof80.0048.0028.8017.285.76machineafterdepreciation(endofyear)(4)Opportunitycost150.00150.00(warehouse)(5)Networkingcapital10.0010.0016.3224.9721.220(endofyear)(6)Changeinnet10.006.328.653.7521.22workingcapital(7)Total

12、cashflowof260.006.328.653.75192.98investment(1)+(4)+(6)*Weassumethattheendingmarketvalueofthecapitalinvestmentatyear5is$30,000.Capitalgainisthedifferencebetweenendingmarketvalueandadjustedbasisofthemachine.Theadjustedbasisistheoriginalpurchasepriceofthemachinelessdepreciation.Thecapitalgainis$24,240

13、(=$30,000$5,760).WewillassumetheincrementalcorporatetaxforBaldwinonthisprojectis34percent.Capitalgainsarenowtaxedattheordinaryincomerate,sothecapitalgainstaxdueis$8,2400.34($30,000$5,760).Theafter-taxsalvagevalueis$30,0000.34($30,000$5,760)=21,760.($thousands)(Allcashflowsoccurattheendoftheyear.)第八页

14、，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-9TheWorksheetforCashFlowsoftheBaldwinCompanyAttheendoftheproject,thewarehouseisunencumbered,sowecansellitifwewantto.($thousands)(Allcashflowsoccurattheendoftheyear.)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year

15、 5 Investments:(1)Bowlingballmachine100.0021.76*(2)Accumulated20.0052.0071.2082.7294.24depreciation(3)Adjustedbasisof80.0048.0028.8017.285.76machineafterdepreciation(endofyear)(4)Opportunitycost150.00150.00(warehouse)(5)Networkingcapital10.0010.0016.3224.9721.220(endofyear)(6)Changeinnet10.006.328.6

16、53.7521.22workingcapital(7)Totalcashflowof260.006.328.653.75192.98investment(1)+(4)+(6)第九页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-10TheWorksheetforCashFlowsoftheBaldwinCompany(continued)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5Income:(8)SalesRe

17、venues100.00163.00249.72212.20129.90($thousands)(Allcashflowsoccurattheendoftheyear.)Recallthatproduction(inunits)byyearduring5-yearlifeofthemachineisgivenby:(5,000,8,000,12,000,10,000,6,000).Priceduringfirstyearis$20andincreases2%peryearthereafter.Salesrevenueinyear3=12,000$20(1.02)2=12,000$20.81=$

18、249,720.第十页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-11TheWorksheetforCashFlowsoftheBaldwinCompany(continued)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5Income:(8)SalesRevenues100.00163.00249.72212.20129.90(9)Operatingcosts50.0088.00145.20133.1087.8

19、4($thousands)(Allcashflowsoccurattheendoftheyear.)Again,production(inunits)byyearduring5-yearlifeofthemachineisgivenby:(5,000,8,000,12,000,10,000,6,000).Productioncostsduringfirstyear(perunit)are$10and(increase10%peryearthereafter).Productioncostsinyear2=8,000$10(1.10)1=$88,000第十一页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGra

20、w-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-12TheWorksheetforCashFlowsoftheBaldwinCompany(continued)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5Income:(8)SalesRevenues100.00163.00249.72212.20129.90(9)Operatingcosts50.0088.00145.20133.1087.84(10)Depreciation20.0032.0019

21、.2011.5211.52($thousands)(Allcashflowsoccurattheendoftheyear.)DepreciationiscalculatedusingtheAcceleratedCostRecoverySystem(shownatright)Ourcostbasisis$100,000Depreciationchargeinyear4=$100,000(.1152)=$11,520.YearACRS%120.00%232.00%319.20%411.52%511.52%65.76%Total 100.00%第十二页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill

22、/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-13TheWorksheetforCashFlowsoftheBaldwinCompany(continued)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5Income:(8)SalesRevenues100.00163.00249.72212.20129.90(9)Operatingcosts50.0088.00145.20133.1087.84(10)Depreciation20.0032.0019.2011.

23、5211.52(11)Incomebeforetaxes30.0043.2085.3267.5830.54(8)(9)-(10)(12)Taxat34percent10.2014.6929.0122.9810.38(13)NetIncome19.8028.5156.3144.6020.16($thousands)(Allcashflowsoccurattheendoftheyear.)第十三页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-14

24、IncrementalAfterTaxCashFlowsoftheBaldwinCompanyYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5(1)SalesRevenues$100.00$163.00$249.72$212.20$129.90(2)Operatingcosts-50.00-88.00-145.20133.10-87.84(3)Taxes-10.20-14.69-29.01-22.98-10.38(4)OCF(1)(2)-(3)39.8060.5175.5156.1231.68(5)TotalCFofInvestment260.6.328.653.751

25、92.98(6)IATCF(4)+(5)260.39.8054.1966.8659.87224.66第十四页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-157.3InflationandCapitalBudgetingInflationisanimportantfactofeconomiclifeandmustbeconsideredincapitalbudgeting.Considertherelationshipbetweeninter

26、estratesandinflation,oftenreferredtoastheFisherrelationship:(1+NominalRate)=(1+RealRate)(1+InflationRate)Forlowratesofinflation,thisisoftenapproximatedasRealRateNominalRateInflationRateWhilethenominalrateintheU.S.hasfluctuatedwithinflation,mostofthetimetherealratehasexhibitedfarlessvariancethantheno

27、minalrate.Whenaccountingforinflationincapitalbudgeting,onemustcomparerealcashflowsdiscountedatrealratesornominalcashflowsdiscountedatnominalrates.第十五页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-16ExampleofCapitalBudgetingunderInflationSonyInter

28、nationalhasaninvestmentopportunitytoproduceanewstereocolorTV.TherequiredinvestmentonJanuary1ofthisyearis$32million.Thefirmwilldepreciatetheinvestmenttozerousingthestraight-linemethod.Thefirmisinthe34%taxbracket.ThepriceoftheproductonJanuary1willbe$400perunit.Thepricewillstayconstantinrealterms.Labor

29、costswillbe$15perhouronJanuary1.Thewillincreaseat2%peryearinrealterms.Energycostswillbe$5perTV;theywillincrease3%peryearinrealterms.Theinflationrateis5%Revenuesarereceivedandcostsarepaidatyear-end.第十六页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7

30、-17ExampleofCapitalBudgetingunderInflationTherisklessnominaldiscountrateis4%.Therealdiscountrateforcostsandrevenuesis8%.CalculatetheNPV.Year1Year2Year3Year4PhysicalProduction(units)100,000200,000200,000150,000LaborInput(hours)2,000,0002,000,0002,000,0002,000,000Energyinput,physicalunits200,000200,00

31、0200,000200,000第十七页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-18ExampleofCapitalBudgetingunderInflationThedepreciationtaxshieldisarisk-freenominalcashflow,andisthereforediscountedatthenominalrisklessrate.Costofinvestmenttoday=$32,000,000Projec

32、tlife=4yearsAnnualdepreciationexpense:Depreciationtaxshield=$8,000,000.34=$2,720,000第十八页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-19ExampleofCapitalBudgetingunderInflationRiskyRealCashFlowsPrice:$400perunitwithzerorealpriceincreaseLabor:$15pe

33、rhourwith2%realwageincreaseEnergy:$5perunitwith3%realenergycostincreaseYear1After-taxRealRiskyCashFlows:After-taxrevenues=$400100,000(1-.34)=$26,400,000After-taxlaborcosts=$152,000,0001.02(1-.34)=$20,196,000After-taxenergycosts=$52,00,0001.03(1-.34)=$679,800After-taxnetoperatingCF=$26,400,000-$20,19

34、6,000-$679,800=$5,524,200第十九页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-20ExampleofCapitalBudgetingunderInflation$5,524,200$31,499,886$31,066,882$17,425,007-$32,000,0000 1 2 34YearOneAfter-taxrevenues=$400100,000(1-.34)=$26,400,000YearOneAfter

35、-taxlaborcosts=$152,000,0001.02(1-.34)=$20,196,000YearOneAfter-taxenergycosts=$52,00,0001.03(1-.34)=$679,800YearOneAfter-taxnetoperatingCF=$5,524,200第二十页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-21ExampleofCapitalBudgetingunderInflationThepro

36、jectNPVcannowbecomputedasthesumofthePVofthecost,thePVoftheriskycashflowsdiscountedattheriskyrateandthePVoftherisk-freecashflowsdiscountedattherisk-freediscountrate.NPV=-$32,000,000+$69,590,868+$9,873,315=$47,464,183第二十一页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.Al

37、l rights reserved.7-22InvestmentsofUnequalLivesTheEquivalentAnnualCostMethodReplacementChainRepeattheprojectsforever,findthePVofthatperpetuity.Assumption:Bothprojectscanandwillberepeated.MatchingCycleRepeatprojectsuntiltheybeginandendatthesametimelikewejustdidwiththeaircleaners.ComputeNPVforthe“repe

38、atedprojects”.第二十二页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-237.4InvestmentsofUnequalLives:TheEquivalentAnnualCostMethodTherearetimeswhenapplicationoftheNPVrulecanleadtothewrongdecision.Considerafactorywhichmusthaveanaircleaner.Theequipmenti

39、smandatedbylaw,sothereisno“doingwithout”.Therearetwochoices:The“Cadillaccleaner”costs$4,000today,hasannualoperatingcostsof$100andlastsfor10years.The“cheapercleaner”costs$1,000today,hasannualoperatingcostsof$500andlastsfor5years.Whichoneshouldwechoose?第二十三页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002

40、 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-247.4InvestmentsofUnequalLives:TheEquivalentAnnualCostMethodAtfirstglance,thecheapcleanerhasthelowerNPV(r=10%):ThisoverlooksthefactthattheCadillaccleanerlaststwiceaslong.Whenweincorporatethat,theCadillaccleanerisactuallycheaper.第二十四页，编辑于星期二：六点

41、分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-257.4InvestmentsofUnequalLives:TheEquivalentAnnualCostMethodTheCadillaccleanertimelineofcashflows:-$4,000 100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -1000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-$1,000 500 -500 -500 -500-1,500 -5

42、00 -500 -500 -500 -5000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10The“cheapercleaner”timelineofcashflowsover ten years:第二十五页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-26InvestmentsofUnequalLives:EACTheEquivalentAnnualCostMethodApplicabletoamuchmorerobustsetofcircum

43、stancesthanreplacementchainormatchingcycle.TheEquivalentAnnualCostisthevalueofthelevelpaymentannuitythathasthesamePVasouroriginalsetofcashflows.NPV=EAC ArTForexample,theEACfortheCadillacaircleaneris$750.98TheEACforthecheaperaircleaneris$763.80whichconfirmsourearlierdecisiontorejectit.第二十六页，编辑于星期二：六点

44、 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-27ExampleofReplacementProjectsConsideraBelgianDentistsoffice;heneedsanautoclavetosterilizehisinstruments.Hehasanoldonethatisinuse,butthemaintenancecostsarerisingandsoisconsideringreplacingthisindispensablepiece

45、ofequipment.NewAutoclaveCost=$3,000today,Maintenancecost=$20peryearResalevalueafter6years=$1,200NPVofnewautoclave(atr=10%):EACofnewautoclave=-$553.29第二十七页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-28ExampleofReplacementProjectsExistingAutoclav

46、eYear012345Maintenance0200275325450500Resale900850775700600500Total Annual CostTotalCostforyear1=(9001.10850)+200=$340340435TotalCostforyear2=(8501.10775)+275=$435478 TotalCostforyear3=(7751.10700)+325=$478620TotalCostforyear4=(7001.10600)+450=$620TotalCostforyear5=(6001.10500)+500=$660660Note that

47、the total cost of keeping an autoclave for the first year includes the$200 maintenance cost as well as the opportunity cost of the foregone future value of the$900 we didnt get from selling it in year 0 less the$850 we have if we still own it at year 1.第二十八页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 20

48、02 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-29ExampleofReplacementProjects340435478620660NewAutoclaveEACofnewautoclave=-$553.29ExistingAutoclaveYear012345Maintenance0200275325450500Resale900850775700600500Total Annual CostWeshouldkeeptheoldautoclaveuntilitscheapertobuyanewone.Replaceth

49、eautoclaveafteryear3:atthatpointthenewonewillcost$553.29forthenextyearsautoclavingandtheoldonewillcost$620foronemoreyear.第二十九页，编辑于星期二：六点 分。McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.7-307.5SummaryandConclusionsCapitalbudgetingmustbeplacedonanincrementalbasis

50、.SunkcostsareignoredOpportunitycostsandsideeffectsmatterInflationmustbehandledconsistentlyDiscountrealflowsatrealratesDiscountnominalflowsatnominalrates.Whenafirmmustchoosebetweentwomachinesofunequallives:thefirmcanapplyeitherthematchingcycleapproachortheequivalentannualcostapproach.第三十页，编辑于星期二：六点 分