20世纪90年代日本经济的反思(45页DOC).docx
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1、最新资料推荐最新精品资料整理推荐,更新于二二年十二月二十七日2020年12月27日星期日11:10:02失去的十年 -20世纪90年代日本经济反思之一(技术分析篇)摘要日本在过去13年间的经历是至关重要的,无论分析日本金融市场的走势,还是其他国家的市场走势,都能从中吸取有益的教训。无论怎样分析,人们都必须承认,任何成功的全球性投资方案都不应回避日本的资产。事实上,日本问题专家不仅不会受到冷落,甚至会面临供不应求的局面。他们将像过去一样,为世界其他地区的投资者解释日本经济的特点。目前,从某些方面来看,在日投资的业绩正在与其他国家趋同,但人们仍然需要了解日本的特点。不仅如此,我们还必须了解其他国家
2、经济的缺陷,从而有效地借鉴日本经济的教训。本文首先介绍了研究日本经济问题的四象限分析框架,即把分析角度分为技术分析、计量模型、新闻报导和经济理论四个象限,而后从这四个角度进行了分析。(世经评论北京)本文为90年代日本经济反思四部曲的第一篇。本系列包括四篇文章,从四个角度探讨了90年代到21世纪最初几年间日本经济的教训。近来,越来越多的国际投资者纷纷表示,日本经济已经无关紧要了。这种观点何其时髦,又何其错误。依我看,日本在过去13年间的经历是至关重要的,无论分析日本金融市场的走势,还是其他国家的市场走势,都能从中吸取有益的教训。无论怎样分析,人们都必须承认,任何成功的全球性投资方案都不应回避日本
3、的资产。事实上,日本问题专家不仅不会受到冷落,甚至会面临供不应求的局面。他们将像过去一样,为世界其他地区的投资者解释日本经济的特点。目前,从某些方面来看,在日投资的业绩正在与其他国家趋同,但人们仍然需要了解日本的特点。不仅如此,我们还必须了解其他国家经济的缺陷,从而有效地借鉴日本经济的教训。如何分析日本经济的教训2001年,摩根斯坦利在一份报告中提出了一个两坐标轴、四象限的分析框架用以进行投资分析。横轴的两个方向分别表示事件和数据。纵轴的两个方向则表示事实(信息本身)和模型(事实之间的关系)。两轴相交自然形成了四个象限。令横轴为数据-事件轴,负方向表示分析重点为数据,正方向表示分析重点为事件。
4、令纵轴为事实-模型轴,正方向强调事实,负方向则强调模型。在这个坐标系中,左上方的象限为数据-事实的统一。此象限的重点为数量分析,寻找数量规律,而无须过分关系这样的规律是否成立,以及是否稳定。左下方的象限为数据和模型的统一,计量模型是这里的主宰者。这里忽略信息(事实)本身,而注重研究信息的不同侧面究竟如何能够协调一致(即模型)。右上方的象限把事件和事实结合起来,自然,这是新闻报导的世界。如果搜集整理事实的难度很大,而是事实之间的关系较为复杂、或难于量化,那么新闻报导就是最有效的手段。最后,右下方的象限是事件与模型的结合,这里是经济理论的天地,我们在这里运用简单的框架来分析事实的关系,令种种复杂的
5、因素各就其位。技术分析象限的教训首先我们来讨论技术分析象限的教训。本文的其他部分将讨论其他象限的问题。正如我们过去指出的那样,技术分析象限的第一个教训是,虽然日本经历了十几年之久的长期熊市,但不同部门和企业的股价走势存在很大差异。1990-2002年期间,东证指数下跌了70.7%,但其中一些行业的成分股几乎没有下跌,而另一些的跌幅也很有限。就个股而言,在这13年期间,单支股票的价格最多上涨了528%,涨幅居第二十位的股票价格也上涨了80%。最近三年的情况同样如此,东证指数下跌了51%,但其中四个行业的股价实际上上升了,另有三个行业的跌幅不到10%。如果说有什么不同的话,那就是,三年来,不同行业
6、的股价之间的分化更加明显了。个股最大涨幅为598%,第二十位则为127%。技术分析领域的第二个教训是,日本股市的下滑之路并非一降到底。十三年中,确实存在一些股市整体上扬的时期。具体来说,如果一名投资者准确地判断了股市的涨跌走势,那么从1990年1月到2002年12月,他的投资收益累计将达到300%,也就是年度回报率可达10.7%。当然,没有人能够长期对股价走势做出准确的判断,但这并不能否定,日本股市确实有一些强劲增长的时期。更何况,一些转折点出现前有明显的动因,准确判断决非难事。举例来说,1992年8月,当时的首相宫泽喜一改变了政策取向,决定采取财政扩张政策,这无疑是一个重大利好。1998年1
7、0月,金融改革法案的通过同样如此。我们认为,虽然技术分析是对过去的数量分析,但投资者不应忽视从中得出的教训。下文中,我们将讨论得自其他三个象限的教训。原文:Japan: Very Relevant - Lessons from the 1990s (Part I) This is the first of a four-part series that discusses the lessons from Japan over the last decade. Subsequent parts will appear in the Global Economic Forum this week
8、.It has become fashionable among some international investors to declare Japan sterile and irrelevant. How chic. How wrong. I view Japans experiences of the last 13 years as highly relevant to analysis of what is still the largest financial market in Asia as well as analysis of other countries. Rega
9、rdless of ones style of thought, the overall conclusion is that Japanese assets will continue to be an essential part of any successful global portfolio. Indeed, far from slipping into oblivion, Japan specialists will be in even greater demand. As always, they will need to interpret the specifics of
10、 the Japanese context for the rest of the world (even as Japanese investment performance converges in some respects with that of other countries). In addition, they will also have to acquire expertise in the warts and blemishes of other countries, in order to adapt what we have learned from Japan to
11、 other contexts. Thinking About Thinking About the LessonsIn November 2001, a Morgan Stanley report (Thinking About Thinking About Investment, November 6, 2001) outlined different approaches to the analysis of investments in a two-axis, four quadrant framework. The horizontal axis differentiates whe
12、ther emphasis is placed on stories or on numbers. The second axis differentiates between emphasis on facts (information per se) and on models (relationships among facts). This set of axes naturally results in a four-quadrant system. Let the horizontal axis be the Number-Story (NS) axis. Emphasis on
13、numbers is on the left, and emphasis on stories on the right. Let the vertical axis be the Facts-Models (FM), with emphasis on facts at the top and on models at the bottom. The northwest quadrant is the Numbers-Facts combination. This is the quadrant of quantitative analysis, which concentrates on f
14、inding numerical regularities, without worrying too much about why such regularities might exist, or if they are stable. The southwest quadrant is the Numbers-Models combination, where econometric models dominate. The quantity of information (facts) is reduced in favor of analytic specification of e
15、xactly how the different pieces of information fit together (models). The northeast quadrant is the Stories-Facts combination, which is the realm of journalism. Journalism is most applicable where gathering facts is difficult, and where the relationships among them are complex or inherently non-quan
16、tifiable. Finally, the southeast quadrant is the Stories-Models combination. This is the realm of theory, where complex sets of factors must be fit into simple frameworks or patterns of relationships among facts.Lessons from the Technical QuadrantFirst, let us consider the lessons from the technical
17、 quadrant. Subsequent parts of this essay will consider the other three quadrants.As my colleague Katsuji Moriguchi has pointed out, the first lesson from the technical quadrant is that there is a huge divergence among sectors and stocks, even in a major, long-term bear market. Taking the whole peri
18、od from 1990 to 2002, when TOPIX fell by 70.7%, some sectors barely fell at all, and some suffered only moderate declines. Looking at individual stocks, the best performer rose by 528% over the 13-year period, and even the 20th-best performer was up by 80%. Taking the most recent three years, the co
19、nclusion is identical. Although TOPIX fell by 51%, four sectors actually rose, and three others fell by less than 10%. If anything, the divergences have been greater in the last three years. The best-performing stock was up by 598%, and the 20th-best by 127%.The second major technical lesson is that
20、 the path down was not a one-way street. There were significant periods of positive equity performance for the market as a whole. This may be seen by looking at the potential performance of an investor with perfect timing in calling peaks and troughs (based on monthly data). Such an investor would h
21、ave earned a cumulative 300% over the January 1990-December 2002 period, for an annualized return of about 10.7%. That fact that no one can ever get timing perfectly over a long period does nothing to invalidate the point that there were significant periods of strong performance. Moreover, calling s
22、ome of the turning points was far from difficult. For example, the August 1992 shift to an expansionary fiscal policy by then-PM Miyazawa was a ringing buy signal. So was the October 1998 passage of the financial reform legislation.Although numerical and backward looking, the lessons from the techni
23、cal quadrant cannot be ignored by investors, in our view. This observation is even more true for the other three quadrants, which are the subjects of subsequent parts of this series.失去的十年-20世纪90年代日本经济反思之二(计量模型篇)摘要日本在过去13年间的经历是至关重要的,无论分析日本金融市场的走势,还是其他国家的市场走势,都能从中吸取有益的教训。无论怎样分析,人们都必须承认,任何成功的全球性投资方案都不应
24、回避日本的资产。事实上,日本问题专家不仅不会受到冷落,甚至会面临供不应求的局面。他们将像过去一样,为世界其他地区的投资者解释日本经济的特点。目前,从某些方面来看,在日投资的业绩正在与其他国家趋同,但人们仍然需要了解日本的特点。不仅如此,我们还必须了解其他国家经济的缺陷,从而有效地借鉴日本经济的教训。本文首先介绍了研究日本经济问题的四象限分析框架,即把分析角度分为技术分析、计量模型、新闻报导和经济理论四个象限,而后从这四个角度进行了分析。(世经评论北京)本文是90年代日本经济反思四部曲的第二篇。第一篇首先介绍了研究日本经济问题的四象限分析框架,即把分析角度分为技术分析、计量模型、新闻报导和经济理
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