负债比率相关(52页PPT).pptx

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1、Analysis of Financial StatementProfessor:Dr.Jo-Hui ChenOn May 19,1999,Dell computer Corp.announced On May 19,1999,Dell computer Corp.announced that its first quarter earnings were 42%higher than that its first quarter earnings were 42%higher than those reported one year earlier.This dramatic those r

2、eported one year earlier.This dramatic increase in earnings was roughly in line with Wall increase in earnings was roughly in line with Wall Street projections.Nevertheless,Dells stock fell Street projections.Nevertheless,Dells stock fell nearly$4 a share immediately after the nearly$4 a share immed

3、iately after the announcement.announcement.At first glance,the markets response appears At first glance,the markets response appears puzzling.However,analysts zeroed in on the fact puzzling.However,analysts zeroed in on the fact that Dells that Dells profit marginprofit margin in the first quarter h

4、ad in the first quarter had fallenfallen considerably.considerably.Table of ContentsFinancial ManagementRatio Analysis Liquidity Ratios Asset Management Ratios Debt Management Ratios Profitability Ratios Market Value RatiosTrend AnalysisFinancial StatementGoal of Financial StatementTo maximize the s

5、tock priceTo maximize the stock priceTo understand the accounting To understand the accounting data do influence stock pricesdata do influence stock pricesTo understand why and To understand why and how a company is how a company is performing the way it is andperforming the way it is and to plan ho

6、w to improve it.to plan how to improve it.Advantages of Advantages of Financial ManagementFinancial Management Comparing Comparing the firms performancethe firms performance with that of other firms in the with that of other firms in the same industrysame industryEvaluation trends in operations Eval

7、uation trends in operations over timeover timeThese studies help managementThese studies help management identify identify deficienciesdeficiencies and then take and then take actions to actions to improve performance.improve performance.Financial managementFinancial statements report both on a firm

8、s position at a point in time(the balance sheet)and on its operations over some past period(the income statement and statement of cash flows).Balance sheetDec.31Jan.1Income Statement Statement of cash flowsBe useful credit analyststock analystsanticipate future conditionsa starting point for plannin

9、g actions that will affect the future course of event.Ratio analysis managersFinancial ratios are designed to help one evaluate a financial statement.Liquid RatioLiquid Assets:It is one that trades in an active market and hence can quickly converted to cash at the going market price.Ratio analysisTw

10、o Kinds of Liquid Ratios:The Current RatioQuick,or Acid Test,RatioThe Current RatioRatio analysisCashMarketable securitiesAccount receivableInventoriesAccount PayableShort-term note payableCurrent maturities of Long-term debtAccrued taxesOther accrued expensesLiquid RatioNormally creditors like to s

11、ee high current ratios.If a company is getting into financial difficulty,it will begin paying its bills(accounts payable)more slowly,borrowing from its bank,and so on.High current ratio could also mean the company has a lot of money tied up in nonproductive assets.If current liabilities are rising f

12、aster than current assets,the current ratio will fall,and this could make the company face trouble.The Current RatioRatio analysisLiquid Ratio Ability to meet short-term financial obligations.The Current RatioExample:MicroDriveIndustry average:4.2 timesMicroDrive has a lower current ratio than the a

13、verage for its industry,so its liquidity position is relatively weak.Now consider the current ratio from the perspective of a shareholder.A high current ratio could mean that the company has a lot of money tied up in nonproductive assets,such as excess cash or marketable securities,or in inventory.N

14、oted that an industry average is not a magic number that all firms should strive to maintain.In fact,some very well-managed firms will be above the average while other good firms will be below it.However,if a firms ratios are far removed from the average for its industry,this is a red flag.And analy

15、sts should be concerned about why the variance occurs.Quick RatioIt is a measure of the firms ability to pay off short-term obligations.Inventories are typically the least liquid of a firms current assets,hence those on which looses are most likely to occur in the event of liquidation.Therefore,a me

16、asure of the firms ability to pay off short-term obligations without relying on the sale of inventories is important.Ratio analysisLiquid RatioExample:MicroDriveIndustry average:2.1 timesThe industry average quick ratio is 2.1,so MicroDrives 1.2 ratio is low in comparison with other firms in its ind

17、ustry.Asset Management RatiosLinking Asset Management and Free Cash Flow:The Operating Capital Requirement Ratio Evaluating Inventories:The Inventory Turnover RatioEvaluating Receivables:The Days Sales Outstanding (or Average Collection Period)Evaluating Fixed Assets:The Fixed Assets Turnover RatioG

18、oal:Measure how effectively the firm is managing its assets.Evaluating Total Assets:The Total Assets Turnover RatioRatio analysisThe Inventory Turnover Ratio MicroDrive has too much inventory.Excess inventory is unproductive.It represents an investment with a low or zero rate of return.Asset managem

19、ent RatioIndustry average:9.0 timesExample:MicroDriveRatio analysisMicroDrives turnover of 4.9 times is much lower than the industry average of 9 MicroDrives turnover of 4.9 times is much lower than the industry average of 9 times.This suggests that MicroDrive has too much inventory.Excess inventory

20、 is,times.This suggests that MicroDrive has too much inventory.Excess inventory is,of course,unproductive,and it represents an investment with a low or zero rate of of course,unproductive,and it represents an investment with a low or zero rate of return.return.The Day Sales Outstanding Average Colle

21、ction Period (ACP)Ratio analysisAsset management RatioThe DSO represents the average length of time that the firm must wait after making The DSO represents the average length of time that the firm must wait after making a sale before receiving cash,or the average collection period.a sale before rece

22、iving cash,or the average collection period.Industry average:36 daysMicroDrives sales terms call for payment within 30 days,so the fact that 45 days sales,not 30 days,are outstanding indicates that customers,on the average,are not paying their bills on time.This deprives MicroDrive of funds which it

23、 could use to reduce debt or invest in productive assets.Moreover,a customer is paying its bills late may signal that the customer is in financial trouble,in which case MicroDrive may have a hard time ever collecting the account.Therefore,if the trend in DSO is up,but the credit policy has not been

24、changed,this would be strong evidence that steps should be taken to expedite the collection of accounts receivable.The Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio Goal:measures how effectively the firm uses its plant and equipment.Fixed assetsCost of assetsDepreciation policyLength of time sinceacquisitionInflation

25、LeaseInflation has caused the value of many assets that were purchased in the past to be seriously understated.The ratio should be used primarily for year-to-year comparison within the same company,rather than for inter-company.Ratio analysisAsset management RatioFixed assets turnover ratio=SalesNet

26、 fixed assets=3,0003,000=3.0 3.0 timestimes1,0001,000Industry average:3.0 timesRatio analysisAsset management RatioThe Fixed Assets Turnover RatioMicroDrives ratio of 3.0 times is the same as the industry average,MicroDrives ratio of 3.0 times is the same as the industry average,indicating the firm

27、is using its fixed assets about as intensively as are indicating the firm is using its fixed assets about as intensively as are other firms in its industry.Therefore MicroDrive seems to have about other firms in its industry.Therefore MicroDrive seems to have about the right amount of fixed assets i

28、n relation to other firms.the right amount of fixed assets in relation to other firms.The total Assets Turnover RatioThe total Assets Turnover RatioRatio analysisAsset management Ratio Goal:measures the turnover of all the firms assets.Total assets turnover ratio=SalesSalesTotal assetsTotal assets=3

29、,0003,000=1.5 times1.5 times2,0002,000Industry average:1.8 timesIndicate that the company is not generating a sufficient volume of business given its total asset investment.Should:increase sales,dispose some assets or combine the two steps.The Operation Capital Requirement RatioRatio analysisOperati

30、ng capital requirement ratio=Operating capitalSales=1,8001,800=60.00%60.00%3,0003,000Industry average:50.3%Goal:measures the relationship between operating capital and sales.It means MicroDrive requires 60 It means MicroDrive requires 60 percents of operating capital for every percents of operating

31、capital for every dollar of sales which is more than dollar of sales which is more than industry average.industry average.Investment in operating capitalCapital costcapitalStock priceOperating assets,or operating capital,is the sum of net operating working capital plus net fixed assets,and it equals

32、 the funds investors have provided to support operations.By raising funds through debt,stockholders can maintain control of a firm while limiting their investment Creditors look to the equity,or owner-supplied funds,to provide a margin of safety,so if the stockholders have provided only a small prop

33、ortion of the total financing,the risks of the enterprise are borne mainly by its creditors.If the firm earns more on investments financed with borrowed funds than it pays in interest,the return on the owners capital is magnified,or“leveraged”Debt Management Ratios By raising funds through debt,stoc

34、kholders can maintain control of a firm while limiting their investment Creditors look to the equity,or owner-supplied funds,to provide a margin of safety,so if the stockholders have provided only a small proportion of the total financing,the risks of the enterprise are borne mainly by its creditors

35、.If the firm earns more on investments financed with borrowed funds than it pays in interest,the return on the owners capital is magnified,or“leveraged”Three implication of using debt financing(financial leverage):Ratio analysisDebt Management RatiosAbility to Pay Interest:Times Interest Earned How

36、the Firm is Financed:Total Debt to Total AssetsAbility To Service Debt:The Fixed Charge Coverage RatioRatio analysisAbility to Pay Interest:Times Interest Earned How the Firm is Financed:Total Debt to Total AssetsAbility To Service Debt:The Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio Effects of Financial leverage o

37、n Stockholders Returns Effects of Financial leverage on Stockholders ReturnsFirm U(Unleveraged)Firm U(Unleveraged)Current assetsCurrent assets50Debt0Fixed assetsFixed assets50Common Equity 100Total assetsTotal assets100Total liabilities and equity100Expected Expected Conditions Conditions Bad Bad Co

38、nditionsConditions(1)(1)(2)(2)SalesSales10082.5 Operating CostsOperating Costs7080Operating income(EBIT)Operating income(EBIT)302.5 InterestInterest00Earnings before taxes(EBT)Earnings before taxes(EBT)302.5 Taxes(40%)Taxes(40%)121Net income(NI)Net income(NI)18%1.5ROE=NI/Common equity=NI/$100ROE=NI/

39、Common equity=NI/$10018%1.50%Debt Management RatiosRatio analysisRatio analysisEffects of Financial leverage on Stockholders ReturnsEffects of Financial leverage on Stockholders ReturnsFirm L(Leveraged)Firm L(Leveraged)Current assets Current assets 5050DebtDebt5050Fixed assetsFixed assets5050Common

40、Equity Common Equity 5050Total assetsTotal assets100100Total liabilities and equityTotal liabilities and equity100100Expected Expected Conditions Conditions Bad Bad ConditionsConditions(1)(1)(2)(2)SalesSales10010082.582.5 Operating CostsOperating Costs70708080Operating income(EBIT)Operating income(E

41、BIT)30302.52.5 InterestInterest7.57.57.57.5Earnings before taxes(EBT)Earnings before taxes(EBT)22.522.5-5-5 Taxes(40%)Taxes(40%)9 9-2-2Net income(NI)Net income(NI)13.513.5-3-3ROE=NI/Common equity=NI/$50ROE=NI/Common equity=NI/$5027%27%-6%-6%Debt Management RatiosDebt Management Ratios Even though bo

42、th companies assets produce the Even though both companies assets produce the same expected EBIT,under normal conditions Firm L same expected EBIT,under normal conditions Firm L will provide its stockholders with a return on equity of will provide its stockholders with a return on equity of 27%vs.on

43、ly 18%for firm U.The difference is caused 27%vs.only 18%for firm U.The difference is caused by Firm Ls use of debt,which raises the expected rate by Firm Ls use of debt,which raises the expected rate of return to stockholders.Since interest is deductible,of return to stockholders.Since interest is d

44、eductible,the use of debt lowers the tax bill and leaves more the use of debt lowers the tax bill and leaves more operating income available to its investors.Thus,operating income available to its investors.Thus,debt can be used to“leverage up”the rate of return on debt can be used to“leverage up”th

45、e rate of return on equity.equity.Debt Management RatiosDebt Management RatiosRatio analysisTotal Debt to Total AssetsCreditors prefer low debt ratios because the lower the ratio,the greater the creditors protection against losses in the event of bankruptcy.It means the creditors have supplied It me

46、ans the creditors have supplied more than half of it total financing.more than half of it total financing.Debt RatioDebt Ratio=Total debt Total debt=310+754310+754Total AssetsTotal Assets2,0002,000=1,0641,064=53.20%53.20%2,0002,000Industry average:40%負債比率相關通常企業負債比率以不超過50%較好，但也要看產業特性而定。另外，負債比率偏高並不代表一

47、定會出問題，但至少反映出企業支付利息的壓力沈重。以下為我國主要行業之平均負債比率。主要行業之平均負債比率主要行業之平均負債比率行業別行業別平均負平均負債比率債比率（%）行業別行業別平均負平均負債比率債比率（%）行業別行業別平均負平均負債比率債比率（%）行業別行業別平均負平均負債比率債比率（%）行業別行業別平均負平均負債比率債比率（%）化學化學33.733.7機械機械43.343.3紙業紙業49.149.1營造業營造業60.160.1保全業保全業2323紡織紡織37.537.5皮革業皮革業61.261.2印刷業印刷業29.729.7證券業證券業17.617.6銀行業銀行業91.491.4食品工業

48、食品工業44.744.7交通工具及交通工具及零件工業零件工業41.941.9橡膠工業橡膠工業44.344.3建築投資建築投資業業51.451.4人壽保險人壽保險87.187.1石化塑膠石化塑膠41.741.7非金屬礦物非金屬礦物41.941.9資訊服務資訊服務38.338.3旅館業旅館業38.838.8產物保險產物保險7575電機電子電機電子36.936.9基本金屬及基本金屬及製品製品43.743.7運輸業運輸業59.459.4租賃及分租賃及分期付款業期付款業84.884.8票券業票券業38.938.9資料來源：中華徵信所公司1998財務總分析因銀行主要以吸收大眾存款因銀行主要以吸收大眾存款作

49、為資金來源，所以偏高。作為資金來源，所以偏高。The Fixed charge Coverage RatioThe Fixed charge Coverage RatioDebt Management RatiosDebt Management RatiosRatio analysisFixed Charge Coverage ratio=EBIT+Lease paymentsInterestcharges+Lease payments+Sinking fund Sinking fund paymentspayments(1-Tax rate)(1-Tax rate)=283.8+28283.

50、8+28=2.1 times2.1 times88+28+20/0.688+28+20/0.6Industry average:5.5 timesIt is similar to TIE but more inclusive because it recognize that many firms lease assets and also must make sinking fund payment.MicroDrives fixed charges are covered only 2.1 times,versus an industry average of 5.5 times.Micr