战略和互联网的发展趋势.ppt

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1、-0-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm管理人网-免费海量下载战略和互联网的发展趋势 Still waters run deep.流静水深流静水深,人静心深人静心深 Where there is life,there is hope。有生命必有希望。有生命必有希望E-COMMERCE IS DEAD“E-Commerce Is Dead,Long Live E-Commerce”-The Industry Standard,April 2000“Going,Going,Gone:Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”-F,Apri

2、l 2000“Can you build a brand online selling third-party goods?The answer is no,even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”-Bryan Rutbert,Warburg Dillon Read“The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures.Look at A-if could be the bigge

3、st living dead the public markets have ever seen.”-Warren Packard,Draper Fisher JurvetsonTOM SIEBELCEO,Siebel Systems“If you cant generate profits,significant market share and customer satisfaction,you re out of business.”“On the B2B exchange side,I dont think anyone will survive.They are all gone.”

4、THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONGTravelocityBExpediaDEPricelineeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAll Other$11.4BIS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28,1794THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS1860-18901895-1925FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkers per bushel of manufactured

5、cottonEngland 1770-83Price of the Model T touring car1908-20191019151920198519901995Price of CPUcomputing power$/MIPS 1982-95Lower processing costs.with increased throughput.Fiber capacityTime1050104103102 and powerful network economics0 20 40 60 80 100 012345678910nValue increases as the square of

6、connectionsProfitLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF+0F+2cF+3cF+4cF+5cF+6cF+7cF+8cF+9cF+10cF+ncValue,costConnectionsCost increases linearly with connections lower storage costs.$/MBAverageHD sizein PC atretail(GB)Harddrivesize(GB)Cost($/MB)LONG DISTANCE Wholesale(Network)Design/buildOper

7、ations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingNetworkDesign/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailRetailNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesWholesale service creationNetwork intelligenceValue a

8、dded servicesNetwork management/dispatchWholesalePHARMACEUTICALSResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales&marketingIncreased development costsRole of blockbusters increasingQuality outsourcers availableEasier coordination1980s1990sResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSal

9、es&marketingAcademic labsBiotech firmsContract research organizationsContractmfrsPBMsJVs/licensingELECTRIC UTILITIESCOMPUTER INDUSTRYAT&T,MCI and Sprint fragmented radicallyMicroprocessors,integrated circuits,memory chipsComputersOperating systemsApplications softwareMarketing,sales,and distribution

10、Common standardsTime based competition1995IntelMotorolaAMDCyrixCompaqDellApplePackard BellIBMDOS and WindowsUNIXMac OSOS/2Microsoft OfficeWordPerfectOthersRetailSuperstoresOn-lineMail orderNeXtIBM,Digital1997PrimaryfuelPowergenerationTradingDistributionBackward integration to reduce riskForward inte

11、gration to open supply channelsScale through focusing on huge power plantsSynergy through bundling capabilities of general trading and energy businessNew services for the customerRuhrkohleMobilBPShellNational Power(UK)Electrobel(Belgium)RWE(Germany)Norsk Kraftmegling(Norway)EnronUnited Utilities(UK)

12、South-ernWaterEastern Elect-ricity(UK)Stadt-werkeMunch-en(Ger-many)1990199519851990Statkraft(Norway)Oslo Energi(Norway)EVO(Germany)IVO(Finland)MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES MASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURINGDigital Photography Example Camera

13、FilmEquipmentPaper,chemicalsPhoto-finisherReprint/enlargeStore/display Share with othersProcessingAnalog value chain Kodak and Fuji dominateMajor players(2000 U.S.market share)CanonNikonOlympusMinoltaKodakFujiKodak(66%)FujiKodak(Qualex)(40%)FujiPhotohutsAlbum manufacturersFrame manufacturersMail ser

14、vicesdisposablesCameraManipulationCropAlter pixelsPrinterPaper,inkReprint/enlargeStore/displayShare with othersProcessing(at home)Digital value chain HP,Sony and others well-positionedMajor players(2000 U.S.market share)Sony(35%)HP(19%)Olympus(13%)Kodak(12%)HP(70%)LexmarkEpsonHPLexmarkEpsonKodakPCIB

15、M microdriveSonyCompact FlashE-mail postingPersonal Web siteZingShutterflySnapfishOfotoOthersAdobe(Photoshop)Standard with camera and available free onlineEXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILING CONTINUES65.117.8Source:The State of Online Retailing 2.0,3.0 and 4.0,Shop.org surveys conducted by The Bost

16、on Consulting Group;SEC filings;Media Metrix and Harris Interactive data;industry association reports;analyst reportsNote:Excludes financial brokerage11.515.2North American Business-to-Consumer Revenues($B)20.6+132%+66%+46%26.744.5Online channel 10%share in several categoriesCATALOGUERS ARE WINNING

17、EBIT Margin in%of Revenues19992000Source:The State of Online Retailing 2.0,3.0,4.0;Shop.org Surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting GroupADVANTAGE INCUMBENTSOnline RetailingDsMarketplacesCLECsCataloguersGE,Big 3ILECs/IXCsB2BTelecomRENAISSANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTALSIPO valueCash flowGrowth=valueProfi

18、table growth=valueCustomer acquisitionSegmentationInternet timeCompetitive advantageTHE VAST MAJORITY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES AHEADIllustrative view of transforming forces,Circa 2010Technology)GlobalizationDeregulationElectroniccommerceSource:BCG analysisDeregulationandglobalizationindex(1

19、999=100)Technology andelectroniccommerce index(1999=100)A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE:LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!Asset turns(sales/assets)Cash flow margin in%of sales(%)RetailConstruction MachineryAutomobileChemicalsUtilitiesReal EstateAirlineAuto partsAerospaceTelecomSource:BCG AnalysisA PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE:LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!AccessFibreWirelessSatelliteAsset productivity focuse-Procuremente-SalesMargin focusOpportunity SpaceSource:BCG Analysis