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1、Tianjin University of Technology and Education二十一世纪的社会保障SOCIAL SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY专 业： 劳动月社会保障 班级学号： 0801 03 学生姓名： 陈文志 指导教师： 李宝梁 教授 二一二 年 六 月英文资料 SOCIAL SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURYAbstract:From our perspective in 1996, it is challenging to imagine what the world will belike in 2096.For exa

2、mple, in the United States in 1896, almost no one could have imagined that a hundred years hence in 1996, less than two percent of the labor force would be employed in agriculture. If someone had made such a prediction, he or she would have been ridiculed as wildly imaginative and unrealistic.This e

3、xample is useful because it seems quite possible that, by 2096, less than two percent of the US labor force will be employed in industrial production - and the same may be true for Mexico and every other country as well. Key Words: social security challenging labor force A CREATION OF INDUSTRIALISML

4、ooking back, the industrial era has been a mass era. We have assumed that a mass society can be sustained in low skill employment that is essentially stable over the long term. At the household level, the assumption is that most people will have a long-term job, and social security policy will, as n

5、ecessary,supplement the income from this job.The choice of social insurance as the dominant social security policy in the twentieth century is derived from certain assumptions and perspectives concerning industrialism and low skill mass production: Economies and labor markets are essentially closed

6、and tied to nation states.Therefore it makes sense to think exclusively in terms of national social policies that serve a nations population. Social and economic issues are and should be almost completely separate.Indeed, the two are viewed as conflicting because resources are drawn away from produc

7、tion for individual and household consumption. There is a preoccupation with mass problems and deficiencies, or needs.These mass needs are addressed via categorical programs, which are centralized and operate as bureaucratic organizations. Bureaucracy is also a reation of the industrial era. The non

8、-employed require only income support when they are not earning labor income. In this regard, unemployment insurance is the epitome of industrial-era social security thinking: it provides income support with little emphasis on retraining for new employment. The assumption is that any unemployed pers

9、on can take the next low skill job that is available. Retirement is a fixed period of inactivity late in life, a reward for several decades of hard physical labor. In fact, mass retirement was created by industrialism and the social policies that accompanied it. Prior to industrialism, most people w

10、orked until they were no longer able to do so. An Assessment of Social Security PolicyThe twentieth century welfare state was a remarkable and successful social innovation in its time. As the economy and social conditions change, income-based social policy is less and less functional to the world we

11、 live in. Several general criticisms can be made about social security systems in the world today: In terms of social protections, most social security systems have not been very progressive. To take a recent example, the 1995 French strike over reductions in welfare benefits was primarily on behalf

12、 of government workers seeking to protect their comfortable state pensions. Income-based policy functions as a massive consumption promoter. The policy is designed almost exclusively to support consumption rather than savings. The macroeconomic effect is reduced domestic savings, reduced investment,

13、 and resulting slower growth and dependence on foreign capital. Centralized cash payments in social security policy tend to undermine intra-family and community support , not only in traditional societies, but in industrial nations as well. This conservative critique is essentially correct,but is of

14、ten unacknowledged by progressive policy analysts. There are national boundary problems in an increasingly global economy. Social security conditions differ so widely that they are a major impediment to mobility in a unified labor market. Most social insurance systems today face serious fiscal probl

15、ems. Fiscal crises have already occurred in many countries and are looming in others. WORLD WIDE TRENDS IN SOCIAL POLICYIn response to these strains, traditional welfare state policy has begun to change in the last years of the twentieth century. Trends in the world are as follows: Reductions in mea

16、ns-tested support for the poor. In this regard,it is ironic that relatively generous social insurance payments to the middle class are so often defended on grounds of solidarity and social justice, while the fiscal strain created by these entitlements often leads to reductions in spending on the poo

17、r. A weakening in the dominance of defined-benefit social insurance. As fiscal strain increases, nations are turning to other forms of social protection to complement social insurance. More mixed systems or multiple pillars in social security policy, asrecommended in the 1994 report by the World Ban

18、k. A rise in the use of asset-based policy in the form of asset accounts. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CHANGES THAT ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANYTHE INFORMATION REVOLUTIONIt is impossible to know exactly what economic and social conditions will be likeby the end of the next century, but the following seem likely:

19、A more global economy, with stronger transnational ties - commercial,political, and social - and a decline in the influence of nation-states. Less mass employment, with more specialization and production by small infirms. Less stable employment , with more temporary work and frequent jobchanges. Eve

20、r greater labor skill requirements, with continual changes in demand for human capital, and a concomitant reduction in demand for unskilled and low skilled physical labor. Greater geographic mobility of workers, including mobility across nationalborders. SOCIAL SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURYThree Majo

21、r GoalsSocial security policy in the twenty-first century is likely to have three major goals, equally emphasized: Social protection goals to buffer hardship and promote social stability. This has been the primary (almost exclusive) theme of twentieth century welfares tates, and it should certainly

22、be retained in the twenty-first century. Household development goals. Consumption is not enough. Domestic policy should promote economic and social development of households,empowering citizens and promoting active participation in work, family and community life, and civic affairs. Macroeconomic go

23、als. As is now apparent to almost everyone, it isinsufficient to think merely in terms of householdsPolicy-makers must also consider the macroeconomic goals of savings and investment, a strong and stable currency, development of securities markets, and economic growth.In a word, twenty-first century

24、 social security policy will move beyond consumption, aiming for greater development of households, communities, and societies.Continuing Shift toward Asset-Based Policy As defined benefit social insurance systems come under increasing fiscal pressure, they will be augmented, and in some cases large

25、ly replaced by,defined contribution systems. Indeed, by the middle of the twenty-first century, I would anticipate that social insurance will no longer the dominant pillar in socialsecurity policy in most countries.People listened politely, but little attention was paid to this suggestion at the tim

26、e. It is a measure of how much the policy debate has changed that inthis 1996 symposium unemployment insurance will be little discussed, and assetaccounts will be the central consideration.A Vision of Social Security in the 21st CenturyWhat would be the characteristics of a successful social securit

27、y policy in the twenty-first century? Overall policy themes Social policy would be more integrated with economic policy. Policy would aim for full funding rather than pay-as-you-go. The policy system could adapt to a wide range of different social and economic issues within the same basic structure.

28、Policy Mechanism Individual accounts would be the dominant domestic policy instrument. Accounts would operate on principles of defined contribution rather than defined benefit. Accounts balances would be fully vested and fully portable. A range of investment options would be available, encouraging c

29、ompetition for market rates of return.Coverage Everyone would be included in the primary asset-based system. Accounts would be established beginning at birth. Funding Mandatory and work-related contributions would be the main funding source. Policy would encourage creative, entrepreneurial partnersh

30、ips to fund accounts for the poor, with a variety of citizen, family, corporate, civil society,state, and international partnerships.Social Fabric To every possible extent, intra-family support would be encouraged inbuilding and using asset accounts. To every possible extent, there would be incentiv

31、es for communityIntegration, Choice, and Flexibility Eventually asset accounts would be used not only for retirement security, but also for housing, education, health care, insurances, investments, and otherdomestic policy purposes. The policy would facilitate household control of policy choices. IM

32、anagement The asset-based policy system would be defined and regulated bygovernment. But investments would be managed in the private sector.Concerns in Asset-Based Social SecurityAs indicated above, there will in all likelihood be a shift toward asset-basedpolicy in the next century, and in fact it

33、is already occurring. Coverage and adequacy. A key issue is whether progressive principles arepossible in a defined contribution system. This would be a redistribution upfront in a savings system so that people can invest in themselves and be com more productive.Protection of funds. Another major co

34、ncern is the protection of funds that individuals have saved and invested. The infusion of funds from an asset-based social security system can be a major vehicle for building financial markets, but until those markets are reliable and efficient, the government must play a major oversight role.Impli

35、cations for freedom and democracy. Because Singapore and Chile are the worlds most extensive examples of asset-based policy, a question naturally arises about the role of authoritarianism in a defined contribution social security system. Individual accounts give greater individual control and enable

36、 families to have a strong voice in their own social policy decisions.CONCLUSION Mexico, like several other nations in Latin America, is undertaking a major change to asset accounts in social security policy. This will in all likelihood be the basic domestic policy strategy of the next century.As th

37、e twentieth century has been a century of welfare states, the twenty-first will be a century of investment states, and the major vehicle for asset accumulation at the household level will be specialized personal accounts, which will replacemuch of what we now think of as social security policy.中文翻译

38、二十一世纪的社会保障摘 要 1996年，从我们的角度来看,社会保障的变化是具有挑战性的，世界将会在2096年发展成熟。例如,在美国1896年,几乎没有人能够想象出一百年后的1996年,不到百分之二的劳动力将会从事农业。如果有人作出这样的预测,他或她会被嘲笑为疯狂的想像力和不切实际的。这个例子非常有用,这是很可能的,到2096年,只有不到百分之二的美国劳动大军将受雇于工业生产。对于墨西哥和所有其他的国家。可能也是如此,关键词：社会保障 挑战 劳动力 发展趋势 1社会保障的发展1.1工业发展初期 回顾过去,工业时代一直是一个“大规模”的时代。我们假设,一个社会大众能够持续在低技能就业,本质上是长期

39、稳定的。在家庭层次中,假定大多数人会有一个长期的工作,和社会保障政策,如有必要,从这份工作能补充收入。社会保险的选择为主导的社会保障政策在20世纪是源自对工业化和低技能大规模生产某种假设和视角： 经济体和劳动市场基本关闭和为国家所用。因此它是有意义的,认为只在国家的社会政策条款,为一个国家的人口考虑。社会和经济问题,几乎会完全独立。事实上,这两个被视为冲突，因为资源制定远离生产个人和家庭消费。 有一个专注于质量问题和需求不足。“这些大众需要通过国家明确的程序集中和运营解决。官僚主义也是一个工业时代的反应。 当他们没有收入劳动收入。在这方面,失业保险是典型的社会保障思想:它提供了收入支持很少强调

40、进行再培训新的就业。假设任何失业的人可以把接下来的低技能的工作,是可用的。 退休是一个固定的时间不用从事劳动晚年,奖励几十年艰苦的体力劳动。事实上,大规模退休是由工业化和社会政策伴随着的。工业化之前,大多数人工作到他们不再能够工作为止。 1.2评估社会保障政策 二十世纪是福利国家是一个社会创新和成功的时间段。随着经济和社会条件的变化,基于收入的社会政策是越来越少，这种状态一直持续到我们生活的这个世界。几条一般的批评可以做出的关于社会安全系统在今天的世界呈现这种情况的解释: 在社会保障方面的大多数社会安全系统一直都没有进步。最近的一个例子,1995年法国的罢工抗议削减福利，主要代表工人希望保护自

41、己的较高的国家养老金。基于收入的政策功能作为一个巨大的消费发起人。设计的政策几乎完全支持消费,而不是储蓄。宏观经济效果会降低国内储蓄,减少投资,以及由此带来的经济增长放缓和依赖外国资金。集中的现金支付，社会保障政策，往往会破坏家庭内部和社会的支持，不仅在传统的社会，但在工业化国家，以及。这种“保守”的批判基本上是正确的，但进步的政策分析家往往是由未确认。 有国家的边界问题，在日益全球化的经济。社会保障条件的不同，如此广泛的，他们是在一个统一的劳动力市场流动性的一个主要障碍。 社会保险制度今天面临着严重的财政问题。 财政危机已经发生在许多国家，并在其他若隐若现。1.3各地在社会政策的趋势 在这些

42、趋势中，传统的福利国家政策在二十世纪的最后几年中已经开始改变。在世界的发展趋势如下：在削减手段测试为穷人的支持。在这方面，具有讽刺意味的是，相对宽松的社会保险金的中产阶级往往都捍卫团结和社会正义的理由，而这些权利所造成的财政紧张，往往导致对穷人的消费减少。 在固定收益的社会保险的优势减弱。由于财政紧张增加，国家正在转向其他形式的社会保障，补充社会保险。更多的混合系统或多个支柱的社会保障政策，建议在1994年由世界银行的报告。资产为基础的政策，在资产账户的形式上升。1.4经济和社会的变化,都有可能伴随信息的革命 要知道正是经济和社会条件将likeby的到下个世纪末，这是不可能的，但下面似乎有可能

43、：一个更具全球性的经济，具有较强的跨国关系 - 商业，政治和社会 - 在民族国家的影响力下降。 不太稳定的就业，更多的临时工作和频繁的工作变化。动技能的要求越来越大，对人力资本的需求不断变化，和非熟练，低技能的体力劳动的需求也相应减少。大地域流动工人，包括跨国流动边界。2社会保障的发展趋势和方向2.1三个主要目标 在二十一世纪的社会保障政策，可能有三个主要目标，同样强调：缓冲困难，促进社会稳定的社会保障目标。这一直是主（几乎完全）二十世纪福利破产财产的主题，它当然应该保留在二十一世纪。 家庭的发展目标。消费是不够的。国内政策应促进经济和社会发展的家庭，赋予公民权利和促进工作，家庭和社区生活，与

44、公民事务的积极参与。 宏观经济目标。还必须考虑宏观经济储蓄和投资的目标，一个强大和稳定的货币，证券市场的发展，和经济growth.In的一个字，二十一世纪的社会保障政策将超越消费，瞄准更大的发展，家庭，社区和社会。2.2继续发展资产本位的政策 作为界定利益的社会保险制度来增加财政压力下，他们将增强，主要是在某些情况下，界定供款制度取代。事实上，二十一世纪中叶，我预料，社会保险将不再在社会保障政策在最countries.People主导支柱礼貌地听着，但当时很少注意这个建议。这是一个政策辩论已经多少改变，在这个1996年的研讨会失业保险将小讨论，资产账户将是中央考虑的措施。3 21世纪社会保障的

45、发展 一个成功的社会保障是社会保障政策在二十一世纪的回归3.1总体政策 社会政策会更加集成与经济政策。政策将为目标而不是现收现付全额拨款。政策体系可以适应各种不同的社会和经济问题在相同的基本结构。3.2政策机制 个人账户将成为主导国内政策工具。帐户操作上界定供款的原则，而不是界定利益。 帐户余额将充分既得利益和完全便携式。投资选择范围，鼓励竞争的市场回报率。3.3覆盖范围每个人都将被列入的主要资产为基础的系统。 帐户将建立从出生时开始。 3.4资金来源强制性和工作相关的贡献将是主要的资金来源。 政策将鼓励创新，创业的伙伴系，以资金帐户与各种公民，家庭，企业，民间社会，国家和国际伙伴关系，为穷人

46、。3.5社会结构为每一个可能的范围内，在家庭内部的支持将鼓励建立和使用资产帐户。 为每一个可能的范围内，将有奖励社区3.6整合选择和灵活性 最终资产帐户将用于退休保障，也为住房，教育，卫生保健，保险，投资，和其他国内政策的目的不仅。该政策将有利于家庭的政策选择的控制。3.7管理资产为基础的政策体系将界定和监管政府。 但投资将在私营部门的管理。 4关注资产为基础的社会保障 如上所述，将在下一世纪的转变向以资产为基础的政策，在所有的可能性，而事实上它已经发生了。4.1充足的覆盖率 一个关键的问题是渐进的原则是否有可能在界定供款制度。这将是一个再分配的“前期”，在储蓄系统，使人们可以投资在自己和CO

47、M更富有成效。4.2保护资金 另一个主要问题是资金保障，个人储蓄和投资。可以从一个以资产为基础的社会保障体系的资金注入金融市场建设的一个主要的汽车，但直到这些市场是可靠和有效率的，政府必须发挥重要的监督作用。4.3自由和民主的启示。因为新加坡和智利是世界上最广泛的资产为基础的政策的例子，一个问题自然产生独裁界定供款的社会保障体系中的作用。个人账户给予更大的个人控制，使家庭能够在自己的社会政策决定有一个强大的“声音”。结论 墨西哥，在拉丁美洲的其他几个国家一样，正在开展一项资产占社会保障政策的重大变化。这将在所有的可能性是未来国内基本政策战略，在二十世纪一直是福利国家的世纪，二十一将是一个世纪的投资国，在家庭资产积累的主要载体水平将成为专门的个人账户，将取代很多我们现在认为，作为社会保障政策。