货币政策将如何应对通胀.docx

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1、目录PPI同比大超预期，预计后续仍将走高1历史上央行如何应对通胀2政策层面加大对通胀的关注6债市策略7市场回顾及观点9可转债市场回顾9可转债市场周观点10风险因素10股票市场11转债市场11插图目录图1： 3月PPI同比大超预期1图2：上游价格环比下滑，中下游价格环比继续上涨 1图3： 21世纪以来五轮典型通胀周期 2图4：历史上资金利率与PPI同比走势吻合，当前分化后续可能“纠偏”7图5： 2019年4月16日至2021年4月16日公开市场操作和到期监控8图6： 2017年1月1日至2021年4月16日流动性投放和回笼统计9图7 2021年4月16日人民币对各币种汇率当前值相对于上一日值变化

2、百分比9表格目录表1： 2002-2004央行货币政策执行报告关于通货膨胀的表述2表2： 2006-2007央行货币政策执行报告关于通货膨胀的表述 3表3： 2009-2010央行货币政策执行报告关于通货膨胀的表述 4表4： 2015Q3-2017Q4央行货币政策执行报告关于通货膨胀的表述4表5： 2019Q1-2020Q2央行货币政策执行报告关于通货膨胀的表述5表6：近期货币政策执行报告和相关领导对通胀的表述 6表7：市场概况11表8：行业涨跌幅榜11表9：概念板块涨跌幅榜 11表10：可转债市场11表11：可转债个券11表12：可转债止股19图6： 2017年1月1日至2021年4月16日

3、流动性投放和回笼统计（亿元）10000001000000900000800000700000600000500000400000300000200000100000同性康量流动性侬我4双中力 a多人力外4 TMLFN 电 外工&上充中diB的外耳7dif田屿列朝市场顾及观点资料来源：Wind, 图7： 2021年4月16日人民币对各币种汇率当前值相对于上一日值变化百分比0.40% -0.30% -0.20% -0.10% -0.00% -0.10% -0.20% -0.30% -0.40% -0.50% -资料来源：Wind,可转债市场回顾4月16日转债市场，中证转债指数收于368.77点，日

4、上涨0.40%,等权可转债指数 收于1,466.06点，日上涨1.37%,可转债预案指数收于1,208.47点，日上涨1.27%；平 均平价为98.49元，日上涨1.24%,平均转债价格为121.12元，日上涨0.32%。348支 上市交易可转债（辉丰转债除外），除侨银转债、冀东转债、天康转债、震安转债、福20 转债、立讯转债、恒逸转债、润达转债、红相转债、台华转债、江银转债、航信转债、天 壕转债横盘外，261支上涨，74支下跌。其中常汽转债（14.42%）、伊力转债（11.64%） 和日丰转债（7.70%）领涨，隆利转债（-6.06%）、天铁转债（275%）和恩捷转债（267%）领 跌。34

5、4支可转债正股（*ST辉丰除外），除佳力图、天康生物、久其软件横盘外，281支上涨，60支下跌。其中亚太股份（10.09%）、伊力特（10.01%）和常熟汽饰（9.97%） 领涨，隆利科技（9.98%）、海峡环保（-8.77%）和大参林（-4.61%）领跌。可转债市场周观点上周权益市场表现仍旧波动较大，结构层面分化已然严重，基本延续了最近一个多月 以来风险市场的走势特征。转债市场那么表现的更为均衡，不少低价标的在近期走出了较为 明显的修复行情。进入二季度，随着经济金融数据的逐步公布，我们在去年底所判断的通胀同比增速顶 点也渐行渐近，预计市场结构性特征将会出现一定的变化，配置思路存在切换的需要。

6、在 当前这一看似区间波动的阶段，正好是从旧主线向新战场切换的阶段。在过去的一个多月 的周度策略中，我们已经反复均衡了转债市场上的配置结构。进一步在顺周期方向集中持 仓，更重要的那么是在其余板块上寻找潜在的预期差，我们更多于中小市值正股对应的标的 中挖掘业绩增速与估值相匹配的标的，个券的alpha是这一阶段的主题。顺周期交易进入尾声我们坚持聚焦在供给侧逻辑上，仅有供给格局紧张的板块值得更 长周期的参与，重点在有色、化工、农产品、黑色系等几大方向中的局部品种。其余品种 特别是当前财报季业绩不及预期的标的可以考虑在近期逐步兑现。新的战场那么重点聚焦在如下方向。我们反复持续地推荐坚守在疫情退出交易，五

7、一小长假即将到来，从市场消息看当前 五一火车票机票以及酒店预订火爆，有望形成短期提振，后续随着海外的疫情逐步缓和， 这一逻辑仍旧有着非常明确的潜在利好刺激。从业绩成长性的角度出发，寻找高景气度的行业。通胀顶点的临近将会直接改善制造 业本钱的压制问题，同时制造业还会持续受益于海外需求复苏的逻辑，作为“全球工厂” 出口产业链可能会持续维持在高产能利用率的状态。需求景气叠加本钱降低，制造业可能 迎来新一轮修复。考虑到宏观流动性对于市场估值的压力，当前实际上处于依靠盈利增速对冲估值压力 的时间段，在这一阶段我们更为关注估值合理（正股和转债估值均需要合理）前提下业绩 的潜在弹性，因此在中小市值风格中挖掘

8、预期差是当前值得重视的方向。高弹性组合建议重点关注紫金转债、韦尔转债、精测转债、欧派（奥佳）转债、火炬 转债、法兰转债、星宇转债、华菱转2 （太阳转债）、福20转债、恩捷转债。稳健弹性组合建议关注青农转债、南航转债、中天转债、双环转债、润达转债、旺能 转债、骆驼转债、利尔（利民）转债、永冠转债、彤程转债。风险因素市场流动性大幅波动，宏观经济增速不如预期，无风险利率大幅波动，正股股价超预 期波动。I股票市场表7：市场概况代码简称收盘价日变化（） 成交额（亿）成交额同比变化（）000001 .SH上证指数3,426.620.812959.518.58399001 .SZ深证成指13,720.740

9、.3C3962.122.10399300.SZ沪深3004,966.180.35399005.SZ中小板指8,756.820.0E399006.SZ创业板指2,783.37-0.26000016.SH上证503,448.100.4资料来源：Wind,表8：行业涨跌幅榜每日涨幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（）每日跌幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（）综合金融3.04农林牧渔-0.55汽车2.40有色金属-0.53煤炭2.33电力设备及新能源-0.24食品饮料1.67医药0.06房地产1.66家电0.20资料来源：Wind,表9：概念板块涨跌幅榜每U涨幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（）每日跌幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（）黄酒6.44扭亏-1.

10、23数字货币4.74燃料电池-1.23白酒4.53高速公路（一致评级）-1.20影视4.47蔚来汽车-1.07二胎政策4.43京津冀一体化-1.05资料来源:Wind,I转债市场表10：可转债市场名称收盘价日变化（）中证转债指数368.770.40等权可转债指数1,466.061.37可转债预案指数1,208.471.27平均平价98.491.24平均转债价格121.120.32资料来源：Wind,表11：可转债个券名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）110031.SH航信转债106.590.000.35110033.SH国贸转债108.42-0.100.86110034.SH九州转

11、债109.790.311.41名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）110038.SH济川转债105.040.440.48110041.SH蒙电转债107.001.140.67110043.SH无锡转债119.000.693.34110044.SH广电转债246.12-0.6952.64110045.SH海澜转债104.090.092.71113009.SH广汽转债106.780.746.84113011.SH光大转债119.91-0.079.50113012.SH骆驼转债119.370.902.16113013.SH国君转债112.50-0.190.78113014.SH林洋转债10

12、0.050.101.36113016.SH小康转债193.74-0.76263.26113017.SH吉视转债95.980.230.81113502.SH嘉澳转债103.741.4129.42113504.SH艾华转债139.57-0.761.51113505.SH杭电转债99.230.230.46113508.SH新凤转债118.030.641.73113509.SH新泉转债196.452.1212.25113516.SH苏农转债105.87-0.080.92123002.SZ国祯转债107.43-0.290.28123004.SZ铁汉转债101.600.580.21123007.SZ道氏转

13、债101.900.100.36123010.SZ博世转债97.900.490.16123011.SZ德尔转债97.100.210.11123012.SZ万顺转债113.200.200.94123013.SZ横河转债387.60-1.8715.73123014.SZ凯发转债117.50-0.131.49123015.SZ蓝盾转债212.83-0.7821.18127003.SZ海印转债106.490.442.76127004.SZ模塑转债163.30-0.5847.97127005.SZ长证转债115.800.271.66127006.SZ敖东转债100.25-0.050.49127007.SZ

14、湖广转债99.600.400.29128012.SZ辉丰转债101.170.000.00128013.SZ洪涛转债108.800.893.07128014.SZ永东转债104.08-0.170.23128015.SZ久其转债99.990.141.16128017.SZ金禾转债147.901.197.01128018.SZ时达转债103.00-0.210.07128021 .SZ兄弟转债107.501.510.40128022.SZ众信转债102.800.210.46128023.SZ亚太转债98.301.135.99128025.SZ特一转债99.290.090.25128026.SZ众兴转债

15、98.540.040.39128029.SZ太阳转债190.900.215.72128030.SZ天康转债278.230.001.01名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）128032.SZ双环转债113.682.160.96128033.SZ迪龙转债117.89-1.0717.65128034.SZ江银转债105.260.001.13128035.SZ大族转债112.510.321.11128036.SZ金农转债125.82-0.311.07128037.SZ岩土转债96.800.381.51128039.SZ三力转债103.460.740.14128040.SZ华通转债107.63

16、-0.160.37128041 .SZ盛路转债298.00-2.5740.61128042.SZ凯中转债101.800.990.11128044.SZ岭南转债92.490.440.59128046.SZ利尔转债129.402.291.76128048.SZ张行转债109.700.831.31113519.SH长久转债99.360.050.27110047.SH山鹰转债115.771.071.53128049.SZ华源转债101.270.270.09128050.SZ钧达转债125.461.384.28110048.SH福能转债123.870.355.59113524.SH奇精转债99.550.

17、120.37128051 .SZ光华转债111.441.310.41113525.SH台华转债99.310.000.14123018.SZ溢利转债208.00-2.117.46113526.SH联泰转债331.82-1.3746.59113527.SH维格转债88.161.371.30128053.SZ尚荣转债120.000.594.91113021.SH中信转债105.500.081.64113528.SH长城转债96.860.170.15128056.SZ今飞转债104.200.341.19110051 .SH中天转债119.491.271.96110052.SH贵广转债98.040.07

18、0.32128057.SZ博彦转债124.741.661.73110053.SH苏银转债112.950.583.60127011.SZ中鼎转2111.101.743.78110055.SH伊力转债152.5211.64159.72123022.SZ长信转债127.511.120.62110056.SH亨通转债100.860.350.50123023.SZ迪森转债94.810.850.78123024.SZ岱勒转债101.841.370.53113530.SH大丰转债99.730.330.30123025.SZ精测转债129.300.860.48113532.SH海环转债101.25-0.261

19、0.79128063.SZ未来转债101.200.290.10128062.SZ亚药转债76.161.272.48113024.SH核建转债104.750.721.74127012.SZ招路转债108.700.742.65名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）110057.SH现代转债107.480.081.01113534.SH鼎胜转债96.590.800.76113025.SH明泰转债166.29-1.2915.43128064.SZ司尔转债110.56-0.420.14113026.SH核能转债106.460.491.82110058.SH永鼎转债96.22-0.510.5412

20、8066.SZ亚泰转债97.580.830.23127013.SZ创维转债97.360.061.01113535.SH大业转债97.340.200.37113536.SH三星转债113.920.850.92123027.SZ蓝晓转债141.99-0.324.84113537.SH文灿转债133.043.0926.28113027.SH华钮转债101.430.100.74128069.SZ华森转债98.500.100.31123028.SZ清水转债97.201.0419.82128070.SZ智能转债103.50-0.811.50113541 .SH荣晟转债114.970.450.5211354

21、2.SH好客转债112.412.041.47113543.SH欧派转债216.102.4512.26123029.SZ英科转债1737.00-1.8665.61128073.SZ哈尔转债101.430.6310.39123030.SZ九洲转债147.08-0.624.30128071 ,SZ合兴转债105.600.890.10128072.SZ翔鹭转债97.52-0.190.44123031 .SZ晶瑞转债210.95-0.994.48128074.SZ游族转债106.351.358.33128075.SZ远东转债120.302.151.27113545.SH金能转债154.801.6782.

22、79128076.SZ金轮转债96.04-0.090.23128078.SZ太极转债115.310.190.10110059.SH浦发转债103.110.0411.54113546.SH迪贝转债99.780.550.30127014.SZ北方转债106.300.9218.45128079.SZ英联转债130.16-0.2727.75113548.SH石英转债130.220.321.34123033.SZ金力转债115.320.171.21110060.SH天路转债110.760.620.51123034.SZ通光转债168.62-0.813.80110061 .SH川投转债128.730.75

23、1.99123035.SZ利德转债126.300.961.47113549.SH白电转债99.34-0.591.11113550.SH常汽转债149.2714.42161.06128081 .SZ海亮转债108.80-0.918.34110062.SH烽火转债106.06-0.040.34128083.SZ新北转债100.300.150.60名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）110063.SH鹰19转债115.840.882.38128082.SZ华锋转债110.592.9267.75128085.SZ鸿达转债99.400.4019.72113557.SH森特转债179.050.1

24、534.84113559.SH永创转债128.500.363.69110065.SH淮矿转债122.302.7311.73110064.SH建工转债97.820.501.07128087.SZ孚日转债97.140.561.35128091 .SZ新天转债112.900.602.66113030.SH东风转债103.951.231.19128093.SZ百川转债103.120.600.29123038.SZ联得转债113.00-0.220.64123039.SZ开润转债106.541.360.24128090.SZ汽模转2105.560.625.38127015.SZ希望转债109.901.10

25、2.03113561.SH正裕转债102.780.690.26123042.SZ银河转债124.40-0.616.46128094.SZ星帅转债118.702.270.92113563.SH柳药转债111.301.180.70128095.SZ恩捷转债174.81-2.678.69113565.SH宏辉转债105.820.583.03113564.SH天目转债121.101.658.87128096.SZ奥瑞转债120.301.080.50128097.SZ奥佳转债160.40-0.905.05123043.SZ正元转债125.16-0.2223.93113566.SH翔港转债103.26-0

26、.190.76110066.SH盛屯转债134.480.9415.19113568.SH新春转债102.030.040.20113567.SH君禾转债105.280.270.09113569.SH科达转债93.530.160.36113570.SH百达转债99.640.710.13128100.SZ搜特转债84.121.235.70110067.SH华安转债106.850.380.95113572.SH三祥转债111.220.390.12123044.SZ红相转债102.000.000.38123045.SZ雷迪转债104.550.740.67128101.SZ联创转债104.000.7030

27、.15110068.SH龙净转债99.601.390.41123046.SZ天铁转债169.00-2.759.04123047.SZ久吾转债115.350.503.31128103.SZ同德转债157.00-0.768.83113033.SH利群转债99.710.960.34113574.SH华体转债99.290.500.36113575.SH东时转债130.42-0.727.05113034.SH滨化转债129.873.4326.77名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113576.SH起步转债102.951.1611.20110069.SH瀚蓝转债126.491.142.5512

28、8106.SZ华统转债115.64-0.300.20123048.SZ应急转债110.710.745.68123049.SZ维尔转债107.001.280.63128105.SZ长集转债101.66-0.130.71127016.SZ鲁泰转债99.350.200.04113577.SH春秋转债128.151.062.56110070.SH凌钢转债116.270.0232.88123050.SZ聚飞转债114.040.560.22113578.SH全筑转债97.420.580.31113580.SH康隆转债273.81-1.8921.51113573.SH纵横转债97.750.440.43113

29、579.SH健友转债116.821.251.68128107.SZ交科转债109.590.710.48128108.SZ蓝帆转债118.65-2.1546.54128109.SZ楚江转债108.450.421.76113582.SH火炬转债232.19-1.288.85113584.SH家悦转债99.760.420.18123051 .SZ今天转债107.870.700.28123053.SZ宝通转债101.85-0.150.08127017.SZ万青转债117.720.110.92123052.SZ飞鹿转债123.91-0.474.26123054.SZ思特转债98.001.280.8612

30、8111.SZ中矿转债167.001.5275.85113585.SH寿仙转债126.231.250.93113588.SH润达转债107.400.000.18128114.SZ正邦转债105.150.550.77128113.SZ比音转债128.200.790.59113589.SH天创转债87.610.920.73128117.SZ道恩转债97.300.150.26113591.SH胜达转债98.820.820.18123056.SZ雪榕转债104.300.680.29128116.SZ瑞达转债96.270.430.56123057.SZ美联转债99.960.550.40110071.SH

31、湖盐转债102.050.442.33127018.SZ本钢转债96.241.7366.59128118.SZ瀛通转债95.530.220.29113036.SH宁建转债99.260.340.05128119.SZ龙大转债120.260.230.98128121.SZ宏川转债109.700.270.19123058.SZ欣旺转债124.50-1.111.47127019.SZ国城转债87.630.960.85113593.SH沪工转债109.481.450.93123059.SZ银信转债102.260.230.10名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）127020.SZ中金转债110.5

32、00.363.87123060.SZ苏试转债119.001.360.52123062.SZ三超转债104.090.730.62128120.SZ联诚转债99.500.910.32128122.SZ兴森转债100.200.550.32113037.SH紫银转债102.020.031.94123061.SZ航新转债101.010.513.38113595.SH花王转债90.301.100.73128123.SZ国光转债103.25-0.311.24123063.SZ大禹转债105.241.120.37128124.SZ科华转债99.350.630.70110073.SH国投转债106.810.85

33、3.94113596.SH城地转债88.840.820.77128125.SZ华阳转债102.080.030.21113597.SH佳力转债97.880.270.13113598.SH法兰转债123.842.989.05113594.SH淳中转债111.84-0.140.18127021 .SZ特发转299.260.110.31113599.SH嘉友转债102.600.110.21128126.SZ赣锋转2158.00-2.5957.42128127.SZ文科转债97.022.407.75113600.SH新星转债96.700.750.77110072.SH广汇转债90.732.7319.28

34、113601.SH塞力转债97.450.950.52128128.SZ齐翔转2113.10-0.055.00113039.SH嘉泽转债104.330.691.96128129.SZ青农转债108.13-0.068.68128130.SZ景兴转债116.131.061.82110074.SH精达转债105.981.900.78113602.SH景20转债114.68-0.030.21123064.SZ万孚转债118.010.180.20123065.SZ宝莱转债101.81-0.010.93128131.SZ崇达转299.880.110.02123066.SZ赛意转债127.10-0.390.8

35、8123067.SZ斯莱转债113.500.761.05128132.SZ交建转债93.570.561.06128133.SZ奇正转债103.010.020.43113603.SH东缆转债118.000.240.23128134.SZ鸿路转债129.02-0.751.94110075.SH南航转债129.36-0.1117.45123068.SZ弘信转债106.001.150.12123069.SZ金诺转债100.600.480.26123070.SZ鹏辉转债110.302.823.01123072.SZ乐歌转债126.16-1.136.24113605.SH大参转债119.21-0.672.

36、84名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）113040.SH星宇转债132.821.751.72127022.SZ恒逸转债126.300.007.84123073.SZ同和转债117.221.361.00123074.SZ隆利转债106.87-6.0612.73113604.SH多伦转债98.601.350.41128135.SZ洽洽转债117.000.541.65127023.SZ华菱转2142.40-0.0433.77113606.SH荣泰转债111.881.170.33123075.SZ贝斯转债102.002.200.42110076.SH华海转债105.800.260.4412

37、3071 .SZ天能转债100.280.620.17113041 .SH紫金转债159.541.5960.71113607.SH伟20转债118.592.050.79113608.SH威派转债104.852.200.47128137.SZ洁美转债126.010.400.61127024.SZ盈峰转债118.900.300.15127025.SZ冀东转债112.800.000.60128136.SZ立讯转债112.500.001.04123076.SZ强力转债92.890.360.64123077.SZ汉得转债96.000.840.37123078.SZ飞凯转债107.800.750.38110

38、077.SH洪城转债107.450.140.26123080.SZ海波转债108.230.511.06123081.SZ精研转债97.130.140.21113610.SH灵康转债102.75-0.441.12113611.SH福20转债128.640.001.56113609.SH永安转债104.363.5410.71128138.SZ侨银转债102.550.000.34128139.SZ祥鑫转债97.400.101.49123079.SZ运达转债114.011.281.67123082.SZ北陆转债106.660.150.31123085.SZ万顺转291.601.2111.20113043.SH财通转债107.880.331.61128140.S