报废飞机监测：净退役率持续降低.docx

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1、COREEquity Research5 February 2019INDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. Aerospace & DefensePOSITIVEUnchangedU.S. Aerospace & DefenseDavid Strauss + 1 212 526 5580 BCI, USMatt Akers, CFA + 1 212 526 9019 BCI, USKate Copouls, CPA + 1 212 526 3283 BCI, US* BARCLAYSParked & Scrapped Aircraft MonitorNet Retirements Contin

2、ue to Run Low as Park Returns Nearly Offset ScrapsWe track commercial aircraft retirements (parks plus scraps) to estimate replacement demand as part of our supply-demand analysis and to monitor fleet dynamics that affect the aftermarket.Parks 16% lower YOY: We count 1,987 parked commercial aircraft

3、 in December, 2% lower from November, and 16% lower YOY including 14% lower for parked narrowbodies, 16% lower for widebodies and 18% lower for regional jets (all YOY). We estimate that 7% of the installed base is now parked, much lower than the last several years as aircraft have continued to retur

4、n from the park amid fleet growth. Mid-life aircraft (aged 11-20 years old) in particular have recently returned from the park and account for 1/2 of the drawdown. Historically, periods that have seen a drawdown in mid-lifeaircraft from storage have correlated with strong aftermarket growth.Fewer pa

5、rked RR 787s: Parked Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-powered 787s increased significantly after an airworthiness directive relating to compressor blades was issuedin April. We count 25 parked Trent 787s (8% of the fleet),20 below the peak in October. These aircraft are presumably parked pending inspection by

6、 Rolls-Royce.Scraps in line with historical average, forecasting slight increase: We count 673 scrapped commercial aircraft overthe last 12 months, 8% higherfrom the prior 12 months and equivalent to 2.4% of the installed base. We estimate adjusted scraps are running at 2.8% (adjusted higherforexpec

7、ted scraps reported afterthefact), roughly in line with the historical average. As high levels of aircraft produced in the late 1990s/early 2000s begin to age into retirement, we forecast scraps increasing to 3% (on units) overthe next several years, including widebodies at 3-4% and narrowbodies at

8、2-3%.Net retirements low: Combining scraps and net parks, we estimate that 300 aircraft have left the active fleet overthe past 12 months, equivalent to just 1.1% of the installed base, including 673 scrapped aircraft offset by 373 aircraft returning from the park. This is much lower compared to the

9、 normal 2-4%, primarily driven by aircraft returning from the park. Narrowbody removals are running at 1.3% of installed base, while widebody removals declined to 1.3% this month, both driven by aircraft returning from thepark.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do b

10、usiness with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware thatthe firm may have a conflict of interestthat could affect the objectivity ofthis report. Investors shouldconsiderthisreportasonly a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST

11、CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 25.FIGURE 21Parked In Production Fleetm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18 Nov-18 change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-177379298-6-6%8756%1%1%737 MAX945125%5480%3%7%747676523%101-34-34%16%22%7675257-5-9%67-15-22%7%9%7777477-3-4%84-10-12

12、%5%6%7873640-4-10%1323177%5%2%A2201100%100%2%3%A320 Family191204-13-6%284-93-33%3%4%A320neoFamily2420420%321700%4%1%A330605559%72-12-17%4%6%A35074375%5240%3%3%A3802200%6-4-67%1%3%E170/175222200%28-6-21%3%4%E190/195424112%44-2-5%6%6%CRJ7003334-1-3%201365%11%6%CRJ900222200%15747%5%4%CRJ10001100%2-1-50

13、%2%3%Total735747-12-2%837-102-12%3%4%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe count 92 parked 737 NGs in December, 6% lower from the prior month, but 6% higher from the prioryear.FIGURE 22Historical Parked - 737 NGs120 n100 -80 -60 -40 -76831910590 87 924638 一3i 36 2!FIGURE 23Recent Parked - 73

14、7 NGs120-| cc 96 97100 92 go ,:llll20 znS6 a60京a80京aNo京a二 Ra916 aSEaJa寸Ea26 a98 98 92| I stjo 81,8-s 8T6M 81m 87un SAPW s,d0NSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe count 191 parked A320ceosin December, 6% lower from the prior month, and 33% lower from

15、the prior year.FIGURE 24Historical Parked - A320ceosFIGURE 25Recent Parked - A320ceos300 250 -200 -150 -100 -50 -300 250 -200 -150 -100 -50 -180 176 I1183 185284350n300-250-200 -150-100-50 -284 289 292249.224I 186 154133 1281358E3 ZEa9E3SEa寸EacnE aZEaHa0Ea6?3(ua80京aSON 8Z0 8LS-S 8T6n4 s，un( 8工线 8Lda

16、 81-sll 二6 aSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchOf the 735 total parked in-production aircraft, we count 198 (27%) that are 10 years old or younger, including 87 (12%) that are five years or younger. For parked

17、in-production narrowbodies, we estimate 96 (30%) are 10 years old or younger, including 44 (14%) that are five years or younger.250FIGURE 27Age Distribution of Parked In-Production Narrowbodiesuo43onpodp(DlBdFIGURE 26Age Distribution of Parked In-Production A/C15010050002468 10 12 14 16 18 20+Source

18、: FlightGlobaland Barclays Research504003o15cumu-at-veSource: Flight Global and Barclays Research0000cumu-at-veParked - by Age ClassWeestimatethat30% of parked aircraft are aged 15 years or younger, equivalent to 593 aircraft, which we think are likely to come back into service.FIGURE 28Parked Fleet

19、Source: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchFIGURE 29Parked Fleet - Last YearSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchThe number of relatively young parked aircraft (15 years or younger) was roughly unchanged sequentially and 22% lowerYOY. We estimate that roughly 4% of 0-15 year aircraft are current

20、ly in storage.FIGURE 30Parked Fleet - By AgeFIGURE 31Historical Parked - Young (0-15yr) AircraftFIGURE 32Recent Parked - Young (0-15yr) Aircraft900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 -0 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 -0 -291900 n800-700-600-500 -400-300 -200-100-二京a916 aT6 a寸EaSEa

21、ZEa二京as总 a60总a 80京aN06 a756 749 772 73i 710653587 562 553 571OOAIruoo三 1ooIda;s604 592 593a LdQcSSON- 8ZOSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchSource: Flight Global and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetD

22、ec-18Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-170-5103911213%110-7-6%2%2%6-10157168-11-7%220-63-29%3%4%11-1533333300%426-93-22%12%15%16-20545564-19-3%645-100-16%17%22%20-25321329-8-2%440-119-27%23%33%26-30291303-12-4%295-4-1%32%31%30+237238-10%224136%19%16%Total1,9872,026-39-2%2z360-373-16%

23、10%12%Young (0-15)59359210%756-163-22%4%6%Mid-life aircraft (aged 11-20) in particular have returned from the park over the last year (- 18%).FIGURE 34Change in Parked Aircra什 By Age - YOYSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3315%nw-15%nw-8% -7%-10%0-56-10 11-15 16-20 20-25 26-3030+Chan

24、ge in Parked Aircraft By Age - SequentialSource: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchParked - by Manufacturer and ModelWe count 964 parked Boeing aircraft in December, 2% lower sequentially and 12% lower YOY.FIGURE 35Parked Fleet - Boeingm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18 Nov-18 change% changeDec-17chang

25、e% changeDec-18Dec-177076600%7-1-14%21%23%7173300%7-4-57%2%5%720000n/a00n/an/an/a7274243-1-2%4112%40%37%737375389-14-4%410-35-9%5%6%737 MAX945125%5480%3%7%747807911%123-43-35%14%20%乃7747223%109-35-32%10%14%7677479-5-6%88-14-16%9%11%7777477-3-4%84-10-12%5%6%7873640-4-10%1323177%5%2%DC-8910-1-10%10-1-

26、10%64%71%DC-91112-1-8%12-1-8%26%26%DC-107700%5240%15%10%MD-80158159-1-1%165-7-4%39%34%MD-90000n/a00n/a0%0%MD-116600%13-7-54%5%10%Total964986-22-2%1,092-128-12%7%8%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe count 376 parked Airbus aircraft in December, 2% lower sequentially, and 22% lower YOY.FIGU

27、RE 36Parked Fleet - AirbusSource: Flight Global and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleet IDec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17 |A2201100%100%2%3%A300111100%14-3-21%5%6%A3101115-4-27%15-4-27%18%23%A3182200%3-1-33%5%7%A320 Family192205-13-6%285-93-33%3%4%A320neo Family242

28、0420%321700%4%1%A330605559%72-12-17%4%6%A330neo000n/a00n/an/an/aA3406667-1-1%78-12-15%29%32%A35074375%5240%3%3%A3802200%6-4-67%1%3%Total376382-6-2%482-106-22%4%5%We count 274 parked Bombardier aircraft in December, 1% higher sequentially, but 4% lower YOY.FIGURE 37Parked Fleet - BombardierSource: Fl

29、ight Global and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17CRJ100/20021821442%247-29-12%29%32%CRJ7003334-1-3%201365%11%6%CRJ900222200%15747%5%4%CRJ10001100%2-1-50%2%3%Total27427131%284-10-4%17%18%We count 265 parked Embraer aircraft in Decem

30、ber, 3% lowersequentially, and 25% lower YOY.FIGURE 38Parked Fleet - EmbraerSource: Flight Global and Barclays Researchm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleet |Dec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17 change % changeDec-18Dec-17 IERJ-135/140/145201210-9-4%283-82-29%24%34%E170/175222200%28-6-21%3%4%E190/195424112%44-2-5

31、%6%6%Total265273-8-3%355-90-25%12%16%Parked - by Engine TypeThe YOY reduction in parked aircraft has been spread among engine manufacturers led by CFM on fewer parked aircraft with CFM 56 engines.FIGURE 39 Parked Fleet - By Enginem/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleet |Dec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% c

32、hangeDec-18Dec-17V25007688-12-14%91-15-16%2%3%PW1000G1412217%311367%4%2%PW4000929200%145-53-37%11%17%PW60002200%3-1-33%22%27%JT9D171700%26-9-35%34%46%PW2000141400%19-5-26%5%7%JT8D241246-5-2%251-10-4%36%33%JT3D78-1-13%9-2-22%23%28%JT4A000n/a00n/an/an/aPW3009900%10-1-10%18%19%Total Pratt & Whitney4724

33、88-163%557-85-15%9%10%Trent146147-1-1%1311511%8%8%RB.163 Spey2200%200%15%14%RB.80Conway000n/a00n/an/an/aRB211787623%108-30-28%14%18%BR7003300%7-4-57%2%5%RB.183 Tay3944-5-11%64-25-39%22%33%AE3007201210-9-4%283-82-29%24%34%M45H000n/a00n/an/an/aTotal Rolls-Royce469482-13-3%595-126-21%13%18%LEAP2013754%

34、614233%3%3%CFM56489503-14-3%608-119-20%4%5%Total CFM International509516-71%614-105-17%4%5%CF6 Family97106-9-8%131-34-26%7%9%GEnx1412217%8675%2%2%GE90373613%3439%3%3%CF3433833441%356-18-5%11%12%Total GE486488-20%529-43-8%8%9%Other5152-1-2%65-14-22%16%20%Total1,9872,026-39-2%2z360-373-16%7%9%Source:

35、Flight Global and Barclays ResearchParked Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-powered 787s increased significantly after an airworthiness directive relating to compressor blades was issued in April. We now count 25 parked Trent 787s (8% ofthe fleet), 20 below the peak in October. These aircraft are presumably pa

36、rked pending inspection by Rolls-Royce.ii1iA三n6d三cWSParkedTrent787s % ofFleetSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchParked - by RegionWe estimate that North American operators account for the largest proportion of the parked fleet (38%), followed by Europe (21%) and Asia (17%).FIGURE 41Parked Fl

37、eet7%Source: FlightGlobaland Barclays ResearchFIGURE 42Parked Fleet - Last Year6%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWe estimate that 9% of the North American fleet is currently in storage, compared to Europe at 6% and Asia at 4%, Over the past year, aircraft have returned from the park in al

38、l regions except for Latin America.FIGURE 43 Parked Fleet - By Regionm/mm/my/yy/y% fleet% fleetDec-18 Nov-18change% changeDec-17change% changeDec-18Dec-17Africa16816264%169-1-1%16%17%Asia Pacific336344-8-2%347-11-3%4%4%Europe419449-30-7%577-158-27%6%9%Latin America144147-3-2%133118%8%8%MiddleEast164

39、167-3-2%180-16-9%10%11%North America721726-5-1%927-206-22%9%11%Total1,9872z026-39-2%2,360-373-16%7%9%Source: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchScrapped Aircraft - In DetailWe count 673 scraps for 2018, 8% higher than this time last year.FIGURE 44 Scrapped Aircra什一 YTD80070060050040030020010002007 2

40、008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Scraps Rest of Year ScrapsSource: Flight Global and Barclays ResearchWecount673 scraps in the last 12 months, equivalentto 2.4% ofthefleet, roughly in line with the historical average at 2.6%.FIGURE 45R12M Scrapped Aircraft800 -700 -pddpos600 -