2020年全球生命科学展望.docx

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1、ContentsIntroduction2Creating new value3Opportunities and efficiencies22Building blocks for the future32Looking ahead, sales trajectories41Appendix46Endnotes48While the number of deals for the year may be trending downward, the value of the deals is considerably higher for the first three quarters o

2、f 2019US$181.7 billion compared with US$135 billion in deal value at the same time in 2018.59 Through Q3 2019, companies from the United States were acquirers in 537 deals and targets in 480 (figure 4). Chinese companies were acquirers in 382 deals and targets in 411.60On the heels of the completion

3、 of the US$74 billion acquisition of Celgene by Bristol-Myers Squibb,61 one of the largest M&A deals announced in 2019 was for a gene therapy company. In late December 2019, Roche completed its US$4.4 billion deal to acquire Spark Therapeutics following the receipt of regulatory approval from all go

4、vernment authorities required by the merger agreement. Spark becomes a wholly owned subsidiary of the Roche Group.62In 2020, large pharma companies will likely need to keep acquiring and making bets on cell and gene therapy companies, focused on oncology and rare diseases. However, significant work

5、remains to be done in scaling the gene and cell therapy model, from development through commercialization, which in turn, is putting pressure on legacy models.In the future, smaller companies may ultimately take an increasing share of the market from big pharma by developing and commercializing prod

6、ucts independently. With the recent influx of private equity and venture capital (VC) investment going into the biotech market, emerging companies have been able to pursue development into later stages. In the long run, this may make it more difficult for big pharma to buy innovation.63Biotech exits

7、 and initial public offerings (IPOs) As of October 2019, there were 61 biotech IPOs, 127 biotech companies acquired, and 124 biotech companies ceased to exist worldwide.FIGURE 4China on the heels of the United States in the number of global life sciences mergers and acquisitions among 10 leading cou

8、ntries, Q1-Q3, 2019Number of deals As target As acquirerUnited StatesChina411382|South Korea130|1191CanadaJapan121 102|France7；United Kingdom90KUIndia481 5aItalyEEGermany44| Source: Pharmaceutical products and market, Statista, October 15, 2019.Sources: things: IP Pitchbook,Four drug developers ente

9、red the US public market in 2019 with valuations of at least US$2 billion, the strongest run of IPOs of this size in this sector (figure 5).FIGURESLeading biotech IPOs of 2019In US$ millions10x GenomicsSeptember 12,2019BridgeBio PharmaJune 27,2019Gossamer BioFebruary 8,2019Turning PointTherapeuticsA

10、pril 17,2019SpringWorks TherapeuticsSeptember 13,2019AlectorFebruary 7,2019pharma; Kevin Dowd, 2019 and 12 big * nk and more with a unicorn CEO, er 10, 2dl9.However, there appears to have been a big ballooning of private valuations over the last few years.64 Along with a rocky stock market in the th

11、ird quarter of 2019, many companies are being forced to accept lower valuations, which some experts say may be more realistic (figure 6).65Medtechs billion-dollar eraAs of the first half of 2019, the medtech sector already surpassed 2018s M&A total, including eight multibillion-dollar deals for a to

12、tal of US$29.5 billion.66 The four largest deals concerned businesses that supply hospitals. Private equity also looks to be increasing its interests in medtech. Four deals of the top 10 in 2018, and two in the first half of 2019, fell to private equity firms.67The first half of 2019 also saw the la

13、rgest VC round ever in medtech and biopharma going to Verily Life Sciences, Alphabet Inc/s research organization and a former division of Google X. The US$1 billion venture round was only Verily second reported round. Overall, however, early investment in medtech companies is falling considerably, a

14、s is the number of venture rounds per quarter.68 Medical device deals in the third quarter of 2019 totaled US$10.78 billion globally.69TECHNOLOGYACQUISITIONS AND TRENDSIn 2019, life sciences companies announced deals to acquire 37 technology companies. As of September, more than half the deals were

15、still pending. Software companies make up the majority of acquisitions at 18, followed by advertising and marketing companies (five) and IT consulting and services (four). Acquirers include six pharmaceutical companies, two biotech companies, and 29 health care equipment and supply companies.Some no

16、table deals include: France-based Dassault Systemes, US$5.8 billion acquisition of US-based Medidata Solutions, with the goal of creating an end-to- end scientific and business platform for life sciences.70 US-based Thermo Fisher Scientific acquisitionof HighChem, a Slovakia-based developer ofmass s

17、pectrometry software that can analyzeFIGURE 6Biotechs blockbuster flotations in US marketsIn US$ billions Market cap at float Market cap as of October 22, 2019$2.5Bj $0.2BVir Biotechnology$1.5B$0.2BSource: Amy Brown, Bloated on arrival? Biotechs weightiest new issues, EvaluatePharma Vantage, October

18、 22, 2019.FIGURE7Health-based technology unicorns that passed US$1 billion in valuation in 2019Note: Data as of December 6, 2019.Source: Andy White and Priyamvada Mathur, Meet the unicorn class of 2019, PitchBook, March 5, plex data and identify small molecules in pharmaceutical and metabolomics lab

19、oratories.71 Atrys Health s acquisition of Real Life Data SLU, both based in Madrid, Spain. Real Life Data specializes in health big data and real-world evidence solutions that are expected to enhance the work of Atrys in predictive medicine and deepen knowledge about the evolution and dimension of

20、pathologies, trends in diagnoses, and treatments.72Rise of health-based technology unicornsAs of November 2019, United States and European venture capitalists hold a record US$144 billion in uninvested capital.73 Some experts believe the IPO market for US-listed tech companies is in a “megacycle J a

21、nd despite some companies notmeeting expectations, 2020 may be the fifth year of growth in the tech IPO market.74 In the first three quarters of 2019, a number of health-based technology companies joined the ranks of unicorn75 status, which are privately held startups with a value over US$1 billion7

22、6 (figure 7).77The direct listing: A new way to raise capital In late 2019, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to allow companies going public to raise capital through a direct listing, instead of an IPO.78 The direct listing model will allo

23、w companies to list existing shares held by investors on a public exchangerather than offering new shares for trading, as is done in an IPO. This model allows bypassing intermediaries and avoids dilution of a companys existing stock.Some experts say many more companies, in particular, technology com

24、panies,79 may be considering direct listings as an avenue for going public in 2020.80Software licensing trendsCompliance, risk management, and product life cycle management (PLM) software applications are likely to continue playing a dominant role in life sciences.81 The life sciences applications m

25、arket is expected to reach US$8.9 billion by 2022, compared with US$7.7 billion in 2017, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9 percent.82In 2019, innovators appear to be making investments in new technologies for drug discovery and real-world evidence.83 Computational medicine has been pivo

26、tal in streamlining the process of drugdevelopment, and growth has been supported by funding provided by the US National Science Foundation and the US National Institutes of Health. The computational medicine and drug discovery software market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.1 percent from 2018 t

27、o 2023, and is expected to reach US$7.87 billion by the end of 2023.84Cloud investmentsIn 2019, cloud investments became one of the top priorities.85 As cloud technology continues to mature, regulated organizations, including life sciences, have not only begun trusting the technology more, but seein

28、g it as a competitive advantage.86Cloud migration and data modernization are mutually reinforcing trends, and Deloitte research shows they are reaching a tipping point amongFIGURESSoftware licensing deals/partnerships through Q3 2019DEALS WITH COMPANYSOFTWARE二二COMPANIESAstraZeneca ProteinQLreConcert

29、o HealthAIGileadlinsitraJnsserMultiyear collaboration to use quantum computing for drug discoveryAnalysis of real-world oncology data to generate insights and real-world evidenceUse lnsitro*s platform for developing disease models for nonalcoholic steatohepatitisUse Iktoss virtual design technology

30、for discovery of small moleculesMerckIktos Use Iktoss virtual design technology for discovery of small moleculesSanofiCytoReasonDevelop a virtual innovation lab for analysis of real-world dataGoogleSource: 33 pharma companies using art币cial intelligence in drug discovery, BenchSci Blog, October 2019

31、.Iktos NovartisMicrosoft PfizerDevelop an Al innovation lab for designing personalized therapiesStandardization and organization of Pfizers data for integration with the companys immune system modellarge and medium-sized businesses. The leading drivers of cloud migration are security and data protec

32、tion.87 From 66 life sciences and health care companies surveyed by Deloitte, 85 percent are implementing or have fully implemented data modernization.In 2020, more enterprise resource planning (ERP) buyers are expected to move to the cloud,88 and businesses that use SAP solutions are making the mov

33、e to take advantage of cloud flexibility and scalability.89 Worldwide public cloud service revenue is expected to grow 17 percent in 2020.90RETURN ON CAPITAL AND DELIVERING VALUEDeteriorating return on capitalReturn on capital (ROC) provides insights for organizations that are considering potentialp

34、artners and new opportunities. While the traditional focus is on profits, margins, and revenue, ROC can provide a fresh perspective. It could be one of the key metrics that matter for 2020providing new understanding of the efficiency of allocating capital under control to drive profitability.91FIGUR

35、E 9Return on capital performance in life sciences and health care nosedived between 2011 and 2017FIGURE 9Return on capital performance in life sciences and health care nosedived between 2011 and 2017Sources: Teresa Leste, Yakir Siegal, and Maulesh Shukla, Return on capital performance in life scienc

36、es and health care: How have organizations performed and where are best bets going forward?, Deloitte, April 30, 2019.Deloittes research discovered that ROC declined for drug intermediaries and retailers, health plans and providers, and life sciences manufacturers, from 2011 to 2017 (figure 9). Life

37、 sciences companies saw the biggest dropfrom 17 percent in 2011 to 11 percent in 2017. ROC for medtech companies fell from 14 percent to 10 percent in the same period. Generally, life sciences companies had higher profit margins than companies in other sectors but demonstrated lower ROC than other o

38、rganizations in the health care ecosystem, such as drug intermediaries and retailers, over the seven-year period.92Pricing pressure was a key factor for declining ROC for medtech companies, in addition to lower R&D productivity, according to Deloitte research. Hospital systems are now tasked with mo

39、re procurement decisions and not individual providers. As hospital systems drive harder bargains, competing solely on price has led to ROC deterioration.93Specialization drives higher ROCDeloitte research shows life sciences and medtech companies that focused on specialty areas had the highest ROC i

40、n 2017. In pharma specialties, ROC was highest for: Antivirals, 26 percent Musculoskeletal, 20 percent Oncology, 18 percent94In medtech specialties, ROC was highest for: Robotic surgery, 21 percent Cardio, 20 percent ENT, 20 percent In vitro diagnostics, 15 percent95In 2020, specialization is expect

41、ed to remain an area of opportunity. Services and solutions that create value by improving outcomes and lowering costs could be another. R&D was found to be a source of diminishing ROC, especially having fewer assets in the late-stage pipeline and lower potential sales per asset.96 Over the seven-ye

42、ar period, the average cost to develop a drug doubled.97In a future with interoperable and real-time data, coupled with the full range of new technologies, it is likely that the greatest returns will likely accrue to organizations that successfully mine the data to deliver personalized solutions. Pe

43、rsonalized solutions that meet consumer demands and keep people well and functioning at their highest potential can deliver value.98GRANT AND ACADEMIC RESEARCH TRENDSThe total NIH appropriation for biomedical research is US$39.2 billion for FY2019. Fiscal issues significantly impact the amount of fe

44、deral investment.100 Increases help maintain and grow research capacity by offsetting inflation and expanding research.101 However, the proposed FY2020 budget is US$34.4 billion, a decrease of approximately US$4.8 billion or 12.2 percent.102 This decrease shifts the upward trend in funding realized

45、every year since 2013 (figure 10). The number of awards is also likely to decrease and may have an impact on innovation.The NIAs FY2019 budget of US$3.08 billion is almost 8 percent of the total NIH budget. BetweenFIGURE 10 NIH research grants: Competing applications, awards, and success rates, 2013

46、-2018Applications 611362564163,64867,76666,73167,496Success rateNIH funding in US$BNote: Success rates measure the likelihood of a research grant being awarded funding.103Sources: NIH Data Book, Report 159, US National Institutes of Health, January 2019 and National Institutes of Health Funding, FY1

47、994-FY2020, Congressional Research Service, April 2019.FY2014 and FY2019, NIA funding increases for Alzheimers disease and related dementias research totaled US$1.7 billion.104 The NIH supports a total of 288 various research/disease categories based on grants, contracts, and other funding mechanism

48、s.105More than 80 percent of the NIH budget supports extramural research conducted at over 2,700 organizations.106 NIH research typically produces significant return on investment for local businesses across the United States. On average, every NIH grant creates seven high-quality jobs.107 Johns Hopkins University received the single largest award for a US research institution in 2019 at US$738.9 million (figure 11).108Recent research shows that federally funded cancer treatment trials may fill an important gap in clinical research by seeking answers to treatment questions t