2022年数学建模实习论文分析第五次人口普查建立中国人口特征 .pdf

《2022年数学建模实习论文分析第五次人口普查建立中国人口特征 .pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《2022年数学建模实习论文分析第五次人口普查建立中国人口特征 .pdf（9页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、蚂蚁文库 数学建模实习论文分析第五次人口普查建立中国人口特征一、摘要日益增长的人口数量导致了资源短缺，环境恶化。通过对第五次人口普查的结果以及1978 年到 2008 年的全国人口数量的统计数据，建立两个数学模型：指数模型，阻滞模型。模型通过假设条件，根据假设建立合理的模型，以及MATLAB 对数据的处理，并且运用数据拟合求模型的解r，最后通过求的的r 预测中国未来十年内的人口变化规律，从中分析中国现在人口特征，从而可以合理的有计划的利用资源，使环境和资源实现可持续发展。关键词：人口模型中国人口数量二、问题的提出人口问题是当今世界的三大问题之一，人口的剧烈增长导致资源日益短缺，环境日益恶化，认

2、识和了解人口数量的变化规律，做出较准确的估测，从而有效地控制人口增长以及合理有效地开发能源和环境保护，通过 1978 年到 2008 年的人口数据变化的规律，对2010 年到 2020 年全国人口数量做出合理的预测。三、问题分析通过对数据的观察，运用 MATLAB 的画图功能，可以看出随着时间增长，人口数量也在急剧增长，而且图像与指数模型吻合，所以蚂蚁文库 不妨假设人口模型符合指数模型，建立第一个数学模型。但是通过对指数模型和实际数据的比对，发现指数模型在 1978年到 2003 年间与实际较符合，但是 2005 到 2008期间误差越来越大，通过对指数的性质可以了解到，当自变量无穷大时，函数

3、趋于去穷大，这与事实相悖，因为现实资源是有限的，当人口到达某一数值后，由于各种资源、环境因素的限制，人口数量将达到某一稳定值，所以，不妨假设最大人口数为 错误！未找到引用源。，当人口数达到最大的时候，增长率为0，建立第二个数学模型。四、模型假设1 假设：表中所给出的数据是中国人口的真实值。2 假设：一些大型自然灾害不考虑在内，如战争，地震等。3 假设：中国实行的生育模式一直不变。4 假设：医疗水平五太大变化对人口数量。五、符号说明r人口增长率t 时间错误！未找到引用源。1978 年人口数量x(t)时刻 t 的人口数r(x)增长率的函数错误！未找到引用源。人口最大容量六 模型建立模型一：指数模型

4、文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G

5、1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5

6、J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8

7、G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C

8、4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8

9、K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10

10、C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2蚂蚁文库 模型建立：图表是从 1978年到 2008 年间的人口数：中国 1978 到 2008年人口数时间1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 人数（万）9.6529 9.7542 9.87

11、05 10.0072 10.1654 10.3008 10.4357 10.5851 10.7057 10.93 11.1026 时间1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 人数（万）11.2704 11.4333 11.5823 11.7171 11.8517 11.958 12.1121 12.2359 12.3626 12.4761 12.5786 时间2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 人数（万）12.6743 12.7627 12.8453 12.9227 12

12、.9988 13.0756 13.1448 13.2129 13.2802 记时刻 t=0 是人口数为0 x，时刻 t 的人口为()x t，由于量大，()x t可视为 连 续、可 微 函 数。t到tt时 间 段 内 人 口 的 增 量 为()()()x ttx trx tt于是()x t满足微分方程0(0)dxrxdtxx（1）模型求解：解微分方程（1），得0()rtx tx e0()1(1)mrtmxx txex由上述模型微分方程的解，通过对上表进行数据拟合，得到参数r：程序：y=9.6259 9.7542 9.8705 10.0072 10.1654 10.3008 10.4357 10.

13、5851 文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2

14、V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H

15、8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4

16、I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:C

17、L2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV

18、1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4

19、R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2蚂蚁文库 10.7507 10.9300 11.1026 11.2704 11.4333 11.5823 11.7171 11.8517 11.9850 12.1121 12.2359 12.3626 12.4761 12.5786 12.6743 12

20、.7627 12.8453 12.9227 12.9988 13.0756 13.1448 13.2129 13.2802；t=0:1:30；b=ones(31,1)；z=log(y)-b*log(9.6259)；r=tz 结果为：r=0.0122 将 r=0.0122 代到上述模型中，得到指数增长模型，方程为：求出的 1978 到 2008 年的人口数为：中国 1978 到 2008年人口数时间1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 人数（万）9.6529 9.7441 9.8637 9.9847 10.1073 10.2

21、314 10.3569 10.4841 10.6128 10.743 10.8749 时间1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 人数（万）11.0084 11.1435 11.2803 11.4188 11.5589 11.7008 11.8444 11.9898 12.137 12.286 12.4368 时间2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 人数（万）12.5894 12.744 12.9004 13.0587 13.219 13.3813 13.5455 13.

22、7118 13.8801 画出两表的数据图像，得到：文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6

23、 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2

24、文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G

25、1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5

26、J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8

27、G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C

28、4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2蚂蚁文库 从图表可以看出，1978 到 2004 年预测的人口数和实际人口数基本吻合，但从 2005到 2008这四年误差较大。原因在于，指数模型当t 错误！未找到引用源。时，错误！未找到引用源。，即人口数无穷增

29、长，但自然环境下，因为资源，环境条件等人口最终将稳定在某一特定的值，无论 t 再变，y 值都不会再改变。模型二：阻滞模型模型建立：当mxx时，增长率应为 0，即()0mr x，于是mrsx，带入()r xrsx，得()(1）mxr xrx（3）将（3）式带入（1）得文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编

30、码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5

31、 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6

32、ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文

33、档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1

34、I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J

35、6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G

36、2蚂蚁文库 模型：0(1)(0)mdxxrxdtxxx（4）模型求解：解方程（4），得0()1(1)mrtmxx txex（5）通过求的模型，对表中1978 到 2008 年的数据 r 和错误！未找到引用源。进行数据拟合：function f=fun2(k,t)f=k(1)./(1+(k(1)/9.6259-1)*exp(-k(2)*t);t=0:1:30;x=9.6259 9.7542 9.8705 10.0072 10.1654 10.3008 10.4357 10.5851 10.7507 10.9300 11.1026 11.2704 11.4333 11.5823 11.7171 1

37、1.8517 11.9850 12.1121 12.2389 12.3626 12.4761 12.5786 12.6743 12.7627 12.8453 12.9227 12.9988 13.0756 13.1448 13.2129 13.2802;k0=0.05 0.05;k=lsqcurvefit(fun2,k0,t,x)f=fun2(k,t)运行结果：k=15.5731 0.0441 f=文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5

38、HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 Z

39、R4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档

40、编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I

41、5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6

42、 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2

43、文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G

44、1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2蚂蚁文库 Columns 1 through 8 9.6259 9.7870 9.9463 10.1036 10.2589 10.4120 10.5629 10.7115 Columns 9 through 16 10.8575 11.0011 11.1421 11.2804 11.4161 11.5490 11.6790 11.8063 Columns 17 through 24 11.9306 12.0521 12.1707 12.2864 12.399

45、2 12.5091 12.6161 12.7202 Columns 25 through 31 12.8214 12.9198 13.0154 13.1082 13.1982 13.2856 13.3702 由此得到阻滞增长模型方程式：其中 t 为时间，y 为人口数。七、模型检验将得到的数据与实际数据比对，画出图像可以看出，预测的数据与实际数据误差较小，较吻合，比对结果如图所示：文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J

46、6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G

47、2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4

48、G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K

49、5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C

50、8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5C4G1I5 HV1H8U8K5J6 ZR4R4I10C8G2文档编码:CL2V5