最新巴罗宏观经济学：现代观点第12章PPT课件.ppt

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1、巴罗宏观经济学：现代观点第巴罗宏观经济学：现代观点第12章章Data on Government ExpenditureGovernment expenditure is the dollar amount spent at all levels of government for lpurchases of goods and services ltransfer payments(amounts given to households and businesses)linterest payments2Macroeconomics Chapter 12 The Governments Bu

2、dget ConstraintGovernment budget constraint:ltotal uses of funds=total sources of fundslGt+Vt=Tt+(Mt Mt1)/Ptlreal purchases+real transfers =real taxes+real revenue from money creation9Macroeconomics Chapter 12 The Governments Budget ConstraintGt represent government purchases in real terms for year

3、t.lCt+It+Gt,is the aggregate real spending on goods and services in year t.Vt represent the governments real expenditure on transfers.The real value of this revenue for year t is(Mt Mt1)/PtTt be the total real taxes collected by the government in year t.10Macroeconomics Chapter 12 The Governments Bu

4、dget ConstraintGovernment budget constraintlGt+Vt=Ttlreal purchases+real transfers=real taxes11Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Public ProductionThe government subcontracts all of its production to the private sector.lPublic investment,publicly owned capital,and government employment are zero.Public servic

5、es have zero effect on utility and production.12Macroeconomics Chapter 12 The Households Budget ConstraintHousehold budget constraintlCt+(1/P)Bt+Kt =(W/P)tLst+rt1(Bt1/P+Kt1)With GovernmentlCt+(1/P)Bt+Kt =(W/P)tLst+rt1(Bt1/P+Kt1)+Vt Tt13Macroeconomics Chapter 12 The Households Budget ConstraintMultiy

6、ear household budget constraint with transfers and taxes:C1+C2/(1+r1)+=(1+r0)(B0/P+K0)+(w/P)1Ls1+(w/P)2 Ls2/(1+r1)+(V1 T1)+(V2 T2)/(1+r1)+(V3 T3)/(1+r1)(1+r2)+14Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government PurchasesTheorylG+V=T or V T=GlG rises by one unit each year,V T falls by one uni

7、t each year.lhouseholds disposable real income falls by one unit each year.15Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government PurchasesTheorylSince the typical household has one less unit of real disposable income each year,we predict that the decrease in C each year will be roughly by one

8、unit.16Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government PurchasesAn increase in G does not shift the curves for the demand or supply of capital services.lthe market-clearing real rental price,(R/P),and quantity of capital services,(K),do not change.17Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Chan

9、ges in Government PurchasesK is unchanged,and A and L are fixed.Therefore,Y is unchanged.lImportant conclusion that a permanent increase in government purchases does not affect real GDP.18Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government Purchaseslr=(R/P)()la permanent increase in government

10、 purchases does not affect the real interest rate.19Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government PurchasesG does not shift labor supply,Ls,which is fixed at L,and does not shift the labor-demand curve,Ld.lthe market-clearing real wage rate,(w/P),does not change.lWe conclude that a perma

11、nent increase in government purchases does not affect the real wage rate.20Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government PurchasesSince r does not change =no intertemporal-substitution effect.Intratemporal substitution effect involves consumption and leisure：llabor and,hence,leisure is f

12、ixed.lIn any event,this substitution effect depends on the real wage rate,w/P,which does not change21Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government PurchasesTheorylour prediction is that a permanent increase in government purchases by one unit causes consumption to decrease by about one u

13、nit.22Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government PurchasesTheorylY=C+I+Glthe changes in C and G fully offset each other and,thereby,allow I to remain unchanged.23Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government PurchasesWe predict that a permanent increase in G,lReduces consu

14、mption,C,roughly one to one.lThe variables that do not change include real GDP,Y;gross investment,I;the quantity of capital services,K;the real rental price,R/P;the real interest rate,r;and the real wage rate,w/P.24Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government PurchasesUseful government

15、expenditure G lCt+(1/P)Bt+Kt =(W/P)tLst+rt1(Bt1/P+Kt1)+Vt TtlCt+G+(1/P)Bt+Kt =(W/P)tLst+rt1(Bt1/P+Kt1)+Vt Tt+G25Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government PurchasesG=1 (Vt Tt+G)=-1+(Ct+G)=-1+Ct+G=-1+Ct=-126Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Permanent Changes in Government Purchases27Macroecono

16、mics Chapter 12 Temporary Changes in Government PurchasesTheorylAssume now that year 1s real government purchases,G1,rise by one unit,while those for other years,Gt,do not change.That is,everyone expects that Gt in future years will return to the original level.28Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Temporary

17、Changes in Government PurchasesTheorylVt Tt=GtlVt Tt falls by one unit,and households have one unit less of real disposable income.In subsequent years,Vt Tt and,hence,real disposable income return to their original levels.29Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Temporary Changes in Government PurchasesHousehold

18、s would spread their reduced disposable income in year 1 over reduced consumption,Ct,in all years t.Therefore,the effect on year 1s consumption,C1,will be relatively small.The propensity to consume out of a temporary change in income is greater than zero but much less than one.30Macroeconomics Chapt

19、er 12 Temporary Changes in Government PurchasesTheorylY=C+I+GlGross investment,I,must fall.lThe real interest rate will rise in the long run.31Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Temporary Changes in Government PurchasesTheorylWhen the change in G was temporary,year 1s extra G comes mainly at the expense of I

20、,rather than C.lWhen the change in G was permanent,we predicted that most or all of the extra G came at the expense of C.32Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Government Purchases and Real GDP During Wartime:EmpiricalWe test the model by studying the response of the economy to the temporary changes in governm

21、ent purchases that have accompanied U.S.wars.33Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Government Purchases and Real GDP During Wartime:Empirical34Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Government Purchases and Real GDP During Wartime:EmpiricalThe data also show that the rises in real GDP are by less than the increases in gov

22、ernment purchases.Aside from military purchases,the totals of the other components of real GDP are down during wartime.The model accords with this pattern.However,the components of real GDP other than military purchases do not fall nearly as much as predicted by the model.35Macroeconomics Chapter 12

23、 Wartime Effects on the EconomyEmployment during wartimelThe basic pattern is that the military took in a significant number of persons total employment expanded a little more.36Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Wartime Effects on the EconomyEffects of war on labor supplylAt this point,there is no settled v

24、iew among economists about the best way to understand labor supply during wartime.A large expansion of real government purchases,G,means that households have less real disposable income.Casey Mulligan(1998)argues that labor supply,Ls,increases during wartime because of patriotism.the military draft

25、would affect the labor supply of single woman.37Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Wartime Effects on the Economy38Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Wartime Effects on the EconomyEmployment Effects on Labor MarketslPrediction that a war reduces the real wage rate,w/P39Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Wartime Effects on the

26、 EconomyEffects of war on the rental marketla wartime increase in labor supply,Ls,led to an increase in labor input,L.lthe rise in L tends to increase the MPK(for a given K).The demand curve shifts right 40Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Wartime Effects on the Economy41Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Wartime Ef

27、fects on the EconomyEffects of war on the rental marketlFor a given K,the rise in K corresponds to an increase in the capital utilization rate,.lr=(R/P)()increases in R/P and imply that r increases.42Macroeconomics Chapter 12 Wartime Effects on the EconomyEffects of war on the rental marketlThe predictions for higher real interest rates during wartime conflict with the U.S.data.43Macroeconomics Chapter 12