反思韩国模式：亚洲金融危 机、对外开 放与财阀.docx

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1、一、IMF、美国和韩国的博弈3二、对外开放、财阀约束和经济转型5三、财阀模式后遗症仍未消除10（一）财阀仍然绑架韩国经济，左右政府10（二）高债务问题仍存，进而抑制国内生产率10（三）民众福利差，社会两极分化严重12四、结语14图表目录图表1: IMF与韩国协议的调控概况3图表2:韩国政府注入公共资金改善金融市场4图表3: 1997年12月和1998年5月，韩国两次大幅放开外资持股上限6图表4: 2004年12月，外资在韩国国内银行的持股比例6图表5:外资进入后，改善了韩国银行业的经营效益7图表6:韩国政府用于R&D的支出占GDP比例居于主要国家之首8图表7:三星集团迷宫般的股权结构图11图表

2、8:韩国年轻群体失业率处于较高水平12图表9:韩国工薪阶层不敢消费，平均消费倾向中枢下移13图表10:韩国在快速进入老龄化13这些子公司并非都取得了良好的成绩，比方三星曾企图开通汽车业务，但最后以失败告 终被雷诺集团收购。实际上，很多财阀的子公司都靠集团内部交易得以苟延残喘，这与财阀企业之间互 相牵连的所有权结构有关系。如三星集团的股权结构图所示，财阀集团的子公司之间往往互相出资，形成超级复 杂的网状结构。在这样的股权架构下，财阀的子公司互相勾结，通过内部交易互相支撑，大 大削弱了财阀企业的透明度。它也像一个蜘蛛网一般笼罩住韩国经济，使得韩国难以迸发出 经济增长的新活力。这让政府和社会陷入两难

3、困境。不对财阀下手进行整改，整个社会将被财阀捆绑得 喘不过气；但是一旦下手，就是韩国经济网络的全面崩塌，毕竟财阀集团掌控了经济命 脉。图表7:三星集团迷宫般的股权结构图I 李:家族 I30.8%资料来源：，三星集团没有公平、合理的竞争，市场机制就不能发挥其作用。很多低效率的财阀集团子公 司，毫无赚钱能力，拥有极高的负债率，但却依靠资源优势继续生存；而新兴的高效率 行业和公司却不能得到合理的资源配置。韩国企业间缺乏适当的公平竞争，导致的结果是，原有大财阀固步不前。如此一来， 影响到了全要素生产率，社会的生产力迟迟得不到合理释放。很多财阀掌门人有意混淆企业个体的效率和国家的整体经济效率。他们认为用

4、原有 企业已有的资源和势力来开展新的产业是更有效率的行为，更有利于国家的经济开展。 但众所周知，这是“爱国”外表下扩张的野心，而且这种漫无边际的野心，阻碍了公平lostD. Losing40. The manager,itclear to us thathe didn tagree with us,left the meeting room.A. who has madeB. having madeC.madeD. making答案:BCDADDCCBB ACBDA DBDACADBDA DBBAC ADACACDCBB竞争的市场开展，造成了韩国经济长期不平衡的局面。韩国财阀是军政时.期政府为

5、了快速开展而创造的工具，是时代的产物。但是它们已 经脱离了掌控，变成了肆意扩张和绑架政府的主体，让韩国政府和民众深陷两难困境。（三）民众福利差，社会两极分化严重亚洲金融危机后，韩国成功地从泥沼脱身，并提前两年还清IMF的巨额贷款，经济 增长率也一直处于OECD国家的前列。但是，亮眼的经济增长数据背后，却没有给韩国 民众带来相应的福利提升。韩国的经济增长没能创造大量的就业机会，就业的弹性系数非常之低，这与韩国重 视制造业的传统有关。目前来看，韩国的就业结构性问题对社会影响很大，青少年和女 性的就业问题严重。图表8:韩国年轻群体失业率处于较高水平韩国年轻群体失业率（）11.010.810.610.

6、410.210.09.89.69.49.29.0资料来源：，IMF除此之外，韩国的工资收入增长，也没能赶上其漂亮的宏观经济数据。2002年至 2012年的十年，韩国经济GDP整体增长了 45.6%,但居民实际工资增长却只有23.2%, 勉强过半。但迅速飙升的房价却是令人咋舌。这些因素叠加在一起，导致了韩国消费萎缩。家庭预期收入的减少以及物价的增长，让 韩国普通民众不敢随意消费。结果就是，普通群众认为他们从来都不是韩国经济增长的获益 者，怪不得有韩国民众呐喊“韩国的民主不是我们的民主”。韩国目前日益严重的人口老龄化问题也羁绊了韩国的经济开展。近年来，韩国整体 生育水平较低，而老龄人口的数量在增加

7、，而且老龄化的速度非常快。2000年韩国65 岁及其以上的人口占总人口的比重到达了 7.2%,预计2019年左右这一数字将翻倍。由 此导致的养老负担持续加重，让年轻人倍感压力。图表9:韩国工薪阶层不敢消费，平均消费倾向中枢下移韩国工薪阶层平均消费倾向（）76Lc L ver 90ST0Z 904T0Z 90mTOZ ZHOZ 90AT0Z ZITTOZ 90T0z ZTOTOZ 990T0Z ZT600Z 99600Z ZTOOOOZ 90OO00Z Z 工。0Z 90&00Z ZT900Z 99900Z ZTSOOZ 99SOON ZT400Z 90600Z ZTmooz 90mooz 3

8、2 1 0 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6资料来源：，韩国统计局图表10：韩国在快速进入老龄化韩国人口年度增长率（）65+人口占比的（右）资料来源:联讯证券，韩国统计局韩国直接越过福祉社会阶段，跨入新自由主义，导致它比拟低的福利水平。西方自 由体制下存在的贫富差距问题在韩国也变得更加严重，自金融危机之后，韩国的基尼系 数不断上升，财富分配不均进一步恶化。根据OECD的相关调查，有7.9%的韩国民众从中产阶级落入了下层阶级。根据2005 年韩国统计厅公布的数据来看，维系社会稳定的中产阶级开始崩裂，其中极少局部凭借 所掌握的高级知识和技能成为阶级上层，而更多的中产那么沦为下层阶级。新自由主义变革瓦

9、解了韩国原来固有的社会契约和雇佣制度，原先的威权主义虽然 存在诸多问题，但也在一定时期内控制了财阀过度寻租和其他导致极端不平等的行为。而改革对金融机构和财阀企业的整改重组，引发了惊人的失业数字。而且原先被默 认的终身雇用制度被短期雇佣取代，非正式雇佣的劳动力占据了相当比例，这些劳动人 群只能获得极低的薪资和福利保障。之前高投资高增长的体制被破坏，先开展再分配的 誓言被遗忘，付出代价最多的是普通劳动者和市民。因此民众的生活并未在财阀的改革整顿后获得改善，经济开展的果实仍然被一小部 分人摘取和享用。而为了整改付出的代价，却由整个社会来承当，这一度让韩国人民难 以喘息。总之，韩国经济的增长是不平等的

10、增长，经济开展的成果被少局部人享有。而由于 这种经济增长成果的不合理地分配，未能释放合理的消费需求，因此也没有让消费需求 拉动投资，使得韩国的经济开展面临新困境。四、结语韩国在亚洲金融危机后的涅槃重生也不失为一个奇迹，它也是遭遇严重的金融危机 后，第一个提前还清IMF负债，走上持续经济开展道路的国家。回顾韩国的历史，我们 不难发现，韩国得以持续的开展，快速地走出危机，和其及时根据时势进行政策的动态 调整有关。韩国借助金融危机成功地推行了金融体系改革，淘汰了局部阻碍市场开展的 企业，实现了经济从量到质的蜕变。但客观地说，韩国目前的经济模式仍有诸多弊端。要实现经济的长期开展，产业结 构调整应持续进

11、行，韩国财阀问题依然严重，放任庞然大物继续增长致使中小企业生存 空间进一步缩水显然不是明智之举，如何实现公平和高效的市场，释放出内在的生产力 是韩国的当务之急。此外，在国际贸易条件进一步恶化的情况下，持续将经济重心依赖于出口 有较大风险，韩国还应该扩大内需，提高居民收入、改善民众福利，以消 费拉动增长。1-others might have been satisfied,Dawson had higher ambitions.A. What Be Why C. Which D. Where1 havent seen you for ages. Havent you graduated from

12、college?Yes. I English for four years in Nanjing.A. studyB. have studied C. am studying D. studiedThe word media basically refers to we commonlycall newspapers, magazines, radios and televisions.A. which B. what C.不填 D. that2. Eating too much fat can heart trouble and cause high blood pressure.A. re

13、sult from B. attend to C. contribute to D. devote to3. Do you expect to be a possibility that Palestine and Israel will make a peace agreement after Yasser Arafat died.A. that B. there C. one D. itMost children in Britain are educated at public .A. cost B. priceC. expense D. salaryYou dont like this

14、 oil painting, do you? I like it better I look at it.A. Yes, the momentB. No, asC. No, whenD. Yes, the more4. Dr Brown has the habit of the room when he is thinking about something troublesome.A. pacingB. stepping C. walking D. marching5. r m afraid well have to work extra hours for there are still

15、some problems.A. remaining to settleB. remaining tobe settledC. remained to be settledD. to remain tosettle6. The newly-founded expedition was lots of trouble, the financial problem is notthe worst.A. up against; of whichB. faced with; whichC. facing; to whichD. up with; among which7. Mum, have you

16、seen my mobile phone? you bought last week? Im afraid I havent seenA. The one; it B. The one; one C. One; itD.One; oneThe woman was by the business mans offer ofmarriage and stupidly gave him most of her money.A. taken on B. taken in C. taken off D. taken outThehouse smelled as if it hadnt been live

17、din for years.A. little white woodenB. little wooden whiteC. white wooden littleD. wooden white little8. My teacher of English is really very kind. I11 never forget the he has done me.A. favor B. deed C. help D. valueWhat do you think of the five doll mascots for the2008 Olympic Games?, they are lov

18、ely, but we cant figure out what they mean easily.A. To tell the truthB. Im afraidC. UnfortunatelyD. As a matter of fact9. How did your students express their thanks to you onTeachers5 Day?A gift together with many flowers sent to me .A. isB. are C. was D. were10. from other continents for millions

19、of years, so it has many plants and animals that cannot be found anywhere else in the world.A. Having been separatedB. SeparatedC. It has been separatedC. It has been separatedD. Having separatedIt was until October that theyBe paid off the debtsA. finished their long journeyC. reached an agreementC

20、. reached an agreementD.worked on the project19. On the top of the hill man once lived.the oldA. a temple stands there; in which on whichB. a temple standing;C. does a temple stand; where whereD. stands a temple;20. 一一Why havent you asked her tocome here?-She an important experiment when I found her

21、 and she it.A. had done ; didnt finishB. was doing ; hasntfinishedC. did ; wouldnt finishD. has done ; hadntfinished21. We had thought the examination would be difficult, but it easy.A. turnedB. resultedD. provedD. provedC. appearedNo one in the department but Tom and I that thedirector is going to

22、resign. A. know C. knows23. When a giraffe （长颈鹿） with its front legs wide apartA. /; /the; /D. /;knowB. am toD. have knownhas drink, it has to stand in order to reach water.B. a; thetheC.24. - How beautiful the dress looks you! Dont you want , Madam?-Please show me.A. in; one; anotherB. on; it; anot

23、herC. in; it; the otherD. on; one; theother25. If you feel tired and sick of fat food, that is you have to go to the hospital for a medical examination.A. whyB. whenC.which26.You Mr. Smith .D. whatshould have prepared your speech for the meeting ,Yes , I know . But how could I the meeting datefixed

24、so soon?A. whileB. asC. afterD. with27. I wonder what will become of my daughter. endless homework , she also bears other leading loads such as revision and recitation.A. As well as B. With C. Except D. Rather than28- How did you like the28- How did you like theof the interpreter at theChinese FM pr

25、ess conference of 6-party talks on TV?A. performanceD. wordsB. achievementC. material29. I to your birthday party last Sunday.Unfortunately, you were out on business.A. had comeB. cameC. wouldcomeD. would have come Did he tell you all about the accident?No, I got the feeling that he was something fr

26、om us.A. keeping offB. keeping backC. keeping outC. keeping outD. keeping up韩国经济在上世纪60年代开始腾飞，用短短几十年的时间，从一个贫穷落后、资源 稀缺、市场狭小的国家，成功跨越高收入之墙跻身兴旺经济体。但“韩国模式”的背后，是 政府、银行和财阀之间打造的“铁三角”关系，财阀负债率居高不下，大而不强缺少核心竞 争力。1997年亚洲金融危机爆发，此前持续高增长的韩国经济遭受重创。外资机构纷纷撤 离，外汇储藏告急，不少大公司倒闭，整个国家命悬生死一线。韩国被迫向IMF等国际组 织和其它国家求助，在外国势力的倒逼下，韩国

27、被动开始改革，开放资本市场。外资的 进入也强化了公司治理，约束了国内既得利益者。尽管这个转型过程很痛苦，财阀模式 的后遗症也未完全消除，但韩国经济确实也实现了从量到质的蜕变。一、IMF、美国和韩国的博弈亚洲金融危机时期，韩国外汇储藏规模急剧收缩，政府面临破产，被迫向IMF等国 际机构和其他国家寻求帮助。但IMF和它的主导国美国，在一揽子援助贷款背后，给韩 国提出了一系列严苛的调整政策。巨大的调整压力给韩国带来痛苦，每一个附加条款都 让韩国陷入艰难抉择。图表1: IMF与韩国协议的调控概况改革领域主要调控宏观政策前期：紧缩的货币政策：调高国内利率紧缩的财政政策：调高局部税收，尽可能减少财政支出后

28、期：（99年后）放弃高利率政策，允许财政赤字的扩张政策金融机构：清理亏损严重的机构，建立更健全的金融监督体系，人生成立监督机构，注入公共资金对金融资产进行改善 结构调整贸易和资本：对外国投资者开放金融市场，进一步开放贸易程度 企业领域：要求企业实行透明化的管理，降低企业负债率 资料来源：，IMF比方IMF要求政府立即关闭那些与财阀有着千丝万缕联系的商业银行，但在韩国历 史上政府从未主动关闭过任何一家金融机构。而且关闭这些和财阀联系紧密的商业银行, 意味着斩断了财阀从一些银行放肆借贷的权利，势必会对财阀企业造成冲击。再比方IMF要求韩国将利率提高到30%,以吸引外国资金进入韩国，但强制实行高 利

29、率将把很多财阀和公司送进破产之渊。IMF提出的方案约束了国内很多既得利益者，一些遭受冲击的既得利益群体，试图 以保住经济主权为由反对政府和IMF签订条约。但经济命悬一线的现实，让韩国政府不 得不考虑接受IMF的条约。1997年11月28日韩国政府表示愿意进行金融体系的改革 整顿，提高监管力度，但对关闭与财阀有密切联系的商业银行、大幅提高利率持抵抗态 度，因为这将让不少掌控韩国经济命脉的财阀企业破产，代价太大了。IMF对韩国的这种坚持非常不快。韩国政府求助于日本，希望抓住这最后一颗稻草， 因为他们认为韩国的危机一旦恶化到了无法挽回的地步，日本必将受到牵连。但迫于美国和 IMF的压力，日本政府也表

30、示只有在韩国接受IMF的改革框架后，他们才愿意支持韩国。30. , I think, and the problem could be settled.A. So long as you keep up your spirits B. A bit more effortC. If you doubt your effortsD. Making greateffortsThe man we followed suddenly stopped as if whether hewas going in the right direction.A. seeingB. having seenC. tos

31、eeD. to have seen31. The passengers were sent to the nearest hospital the accident happened.A: shortly B: nearly C: instantly D: almost32. Ladies and gentlemen, please fasten your seat belts. The plane . A: takes offB: is takingoffC: has taken offD: took off33. To make members of a team perform bett

32、er, the trainer first of all has to know their and weaknesses.A: strengthsB: benefitsC:techniquesD: valuesA warm thought suddenly came to meI mightuse the pocket money to buy some flowers for my mothers birthday.A: ifB: whenC: thatD: which37. The ancient37. The ancientstudy you have been making Chin

33、ese characters is fascinating.B. forD. ofC.A, to from38. Since the mid-1980s, growing numbers of Asians in New Zeahnd, and they about six percent of the total population.A. had settled; are made up of B. have settled; make up C, settled; make up of D. are settling; make up for一-I caught a student ch

34、eating on the exam.一-Perhaps if he had spent as much time studying as he on his clothes, he would have passed!A. did writing B. writingC. hadwrittenD. wrote39. It is not yet well understood has made the rainforest disappear year by year.A. whatB. whichC.thatD. how答案：DDBCB CDABA ABAAA CCDDB DCBBB DAA

35、DB BCCBA CDBAA1.1.How did you spend the holidays?1 went nowhere but stay at home. Id like to to the beach, but my mother was ill.A. goB. having goneC. begoingD. have gone2. 1 wonder why Mr Green hasnt showed up at the meetingyet.r m not sure, but he in a traffic jam driving here.A. could be stuckB.

36、might stuckC. might have been stuck D. must have stuck3. The factory produced many famous cars, none of shipped to foreign countries.A. themB. whichC. itD. whatThe Indian Ocean tsunami at the end of 2004 is believed more than 160,000 people and made millions homeless, it perhaps the most destroying

37、tsunami in history.A. to kill; makingB. to have killed; makingC. having killed; to make D. killing; made4. Is it true the rain stops, it will be as hot as in the summer here?A. whenB. that whenC. whenever D.thatMike, as far as I know, like to play music.A. seemsB. appearsC. feelsD.does1. , Jack coul

38、dnt get the door open. He had to dial 911.A. As he might try B. Try as he might C. As might he try D. Might as he try8. They traveled by day without a rest in order to reach the destination by day of July 4.A. a; / B. /; / C. /; the D. the; /He is such a lazy mannobody wants to workwith.A. as; him B

39、. that; whom C. as;不填 D, whom; him9. When at the ticket office, my brother and I found we didnt have enough money to buy tickets for of us.A. arrived; the two B. arrived; two C. arriving; the two D. arriving; twoILHow did you spend the holidays?1 went nowhere but stay at home. Id like to to the beac

40、h, but my mother was ill.A. goB. having goneC. begoingD. have gone12 .1 wonder why Mr Green hasnt showed up at the meetingyet.r m not sure, but he in a traffic jam driving here.A. could be stuckB. might stuckC. might have been stuck D. must have stuck13 .The factory produced many famous cars, none o

41、f shipped to foreign countries.A. themB. whichC. itD. what.The Indian Ocean tsunami at the end of 2004 is believed more than 160,000 people and made millions homeless, it perhaps the most destroying tsunami in history.A. to kill; makingB. to have killed; makingC. having killed; to make D. killing; m

42、ade15. Is it true the rain stops, it will be as hot as in the summer here?A. whenB. that whenC. whenever D.thatMike, as far as I know,like to play music.A. seemsB. appearsC. feelsD.does17.911.17.911., Jack couldnt get thedoor open. He had to dialA. As he might try B. Try try D. Might as he try18. Th

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45、 this B. thatC. one D. it20. - r ve studied gardening as a hobby. Could I make some suggestions?A. You will make itB. Go right aheadC. Don, t mention itD. Take it easy21. For holidays , many people visit those islands the coast of Australia.A. in B. onC. offD. ofHow long do you think the computer co

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47、A. to stand stoodB. standingD. would standC.28. If yoube in time for the early bus, be sure to getup before five in the morning.A. are toB. are about toC.WillD. are due to28. Could you this 10-dollar bill so I can make a phone call?A. divideB. tearC. break D. cut-Did you lock the door?-No, I , but I forgot.A. shouldB. must haveC.mustD. should haveThe customer didnt choose of the ties and went