2021世界经济形势展望.docx

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1、Sustainable Development GoalsGoal 10. Reduce inequality within and among countriesGoal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainableGoal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patternsGoal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impactsGo

2、al 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable developmentGoal 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity lossGo

3、al 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levelsGoal 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the Global Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentThe

4、 collapse in global tourism has created an emergency for many developing countriesInternational travel has been hit particularly hard by the pandemic. As travel restrictions persist across the world, global tourism remains at a fraction of its pre-pandemic level. Worldwide tourist arrivals are estim

5、ated to have plunged by 70 per cent in 2020, the largest decline on record; and international tourism receipt losses are estimated to have amounted to US$ 1.1 trillion. This has created an emergency for many developing countries, especially small island developing States, where tourism accounts for

6、up to 80 per cent of total export revenues. Cross-border trade in services sectors that require physical distancing, such as construction, has also fallen sharply, whereas trade in computer services has been boosted by rising demand for digital solutions.Lingering trade tensions will impede the reco

7、veryThe global trade outlook is clouded by major uncertaintiesof global tradeof global tradeOverall, global trade in goods and services is estimated to have declined by 7.6 per cent in 2020, a slightly smaller contraction than during the global financial crisis. The UN DESA baseline scenario project

8、s a moderate recovery in global trade over the next two years as countries slowly bring the pandemic under control and ease movement restrictions. Annual growth in global trade is forecast at 6.9 per cent in 2021 and 3.7 per cent in 2022, buoyed by a recovery in international travel. The global trad

9、e outlook is clouded, however, by significant uncertainties, including over the future spread of the virus; lasting damage from the crisis-for example, to labour markets and balance sheets; and lingering trade tensions among major trading partners.Commodity exporters have taken a hard hit although s

10、ome commodities did not experience aThe crisis has affected international commodity markets very unevenlysharp declinesharp declineThe COVID-19 pandemic has affected commodity markets very unevenly, in contrast to the global financial crisis, during which commodity prices moved mostly together. Agri

11、cultural commodity prices have been resilient as global demand remained robust and supply chain disruptions were generally only short-lived. Since global markets for major food staples are well supplied, agricultural price indexes are projected to remain fairly stable in 2021. After falling sharply

12、during the early stages of the pandemic, the prices of metals have rebounded faster and more strongly than expected. As a result of strong demand from China and supply disruptions, the prices of copper, aluminium and iron ore are now well above their pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, the crisis has se

13、verely affected the global energy industry, with potentially long-lasting consequences. While the initial collapse in oil prices has been followed by a steady recovery on the back of improving global prospects, oil supply cuts and a weakening dollar elevated global oil inventory levels and surplus p

14、roduction capacity limit the upward potential of oil prices going forward.The changing global trade landscape will impact progress on the SDGsBeyond short-term dynamics, the pandemic has accelerated several structural shifts, which are shaping the future of the global trade landscape. These include

15、the rise of digital technologies, the increasingly significant role of services in the global economy and the evolving configuration of global value chains (GVCs). The changing international trade environment will have a profound impact on countries growth prospects and their progress towards sustai

16、nable development. How global trade patterns and trade policies evolve over the coming decade will be an important determinant of progress towards achievement of all of the goals within the SDG framework.The European Central Bank initiated significant monetary stimulus measures750 billion euros. Und

17、er the plan, which will prioritize ecologically sustainable development, digitalization, support for companies and strengthening of health-care systems, loans and grants will be made available to the neediest and hardest- hit economies in the region.The pandemic also led to a wide range of monetary

18、policy actions. In March 2020, the European Central Bank (ECB) initiated a pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) and in June subsequently increased its total volume to 1,850 billion euros, equivalent to more than 10 per cent of euro zone GDP. Other central banks in the region have taken simil

19、ar steps towards providing support within the context of the pandemic. The ECB programme features significant flexibility with regard to the types of assets purchased and the time frames for purchases. The exercise of that flexibility will lead to further increases in the size of the Banks balance s

20、heet, which has already ballooned over the past years owing to the implementation of similar programmes. In addition, the Bank has kept its policy interest rate at -0.5 per cent. The immediate aim of these measures is to reduce the negative impact of the health crisis on the real economy and to prev

21、ent the emergence of a financial crisis. In accordance with its mandate, the ECB continues to target an inflation rate of below-but close to-2 per cent. However, even with the significant increase in stimulus measures, the inflation rate has become negative and in September stood at -0.3 per cent fo

22、r the euro area. Lower energy prices have been a major contributing factor but even when energy and unprocessed food are excluded, inflation stood at only 0.4 per cent, well below the policy target. This sets the stage for an increasingly serious policy predicament. While the undershooting of the po

23、licy target and the looming spectre of deflation could very well merit a further increase in or extension of stimulus measures, such steps could lead to renewed criticism that, by financing public budgets, the European Central Bank is overstepping its mandate.Developed Asia: linkage with developing

24、East Asia holds the key to post-crisis recoveryJapan: exports are expected to lead the recoveryJapan: exports are expected to lead the recoveryDeveloped Asia-comprising Japan, Australia and New Zealand-experienced an unprecedented plunge in the level of its economic activities in the second quarter

25、of 2020. While these countries could afford to implement unprecedented fiscal stimulus packages, it is the revival of their external demand-particularly from developing East Asia and notably from China-that will make recovery solid and sustainable. Indeed, Japan shares global supply chains for manuf

26、acturing with developing East Asia; East Asia is Australias largest destination for commodity exports; and the recent growth in New Zealands tourism sector has benefited from the visits of tourists from East Asia. For a post-crisis recovery to succeed, it is therefore crucial that developed Asia ens

27、ure the restoration of the value chains it has been sharing with developing East Asia.In Japan, real GDP is estimated to have contracted by 5.4 per cent in 2020 and is forecast to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2021. Despite the roll-out of an unprecedented stimulus package, including income transfers and

28、employment subsidies, real GDP plunged in the second quarter, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline. Owing to stagnating domestic demand, household debt increased only slightly in the second quarter, to 345 trillion yen from 343 trillion yen in the previous quarter. In the same period, the

29、 debt of the non-financial sector showed a steep increase, from 1,754 trillion to 1,852 trillion yen, reflecting the utilization of emergency loan facilities. The third-quarter rebound was weak asAustralia: the pace of recovery picked up towards the end of 2020Australia: the pace of recovery picked

30、up towards the end of 2020households remained cautious when spending; and residential and corporate investments stayed subdued despite easing financing conditions. Although Japan was able to avoid a one-time surge in unemployment in the second quarter, the unemployment rate gradually rose to 3.0 per

31、 cent in September from 2.4 per cent in January. The fragile employment situation reflects weak prospects for corporate profits and wage growth; and domestic demand growth is projected to be mild. It is exports that are projected to lead the recovery as demand from the East Asian economies recovers.

32、New Zealand: the high-performing tourism sector was hit by the impact of border closuresIn Australia, real GDP, which is estimated to have contracted by 4.5 per cent in 2020 and will grow by 3.3 per cent in 2021, dipped substantially in the second quarter, reflecting the economic effects of the lock

33、down measures. The midyear recovery was relatively slow, due partly to another lockdown in the State of Victoria in August instituted in response to a second wave of pandemic outbreaks. While the unemployment rate has remained high, after jumping from 5.3 per cent in January to 7.5 per cent in July

34、and decreasing only slightly to 7.0 per cent in October, the pace of recovery nevertheless picked up towards the end of the year. External demand for Australias commodity exports is expected to lead growth in 2021.In New Zealand, real GDP is estimated to have contracted by 6.1 per cent in 2020, with

35、 an expansion by 5.2 per cent expected in 2021. While lockdown measures instituted to contain community infection were successful in bringing down the number of COVID-19 outbreaks, the economy nonetheless came to a standstill in the second quarter with a plunge in domestic demand. The midyear recove

36、ry, on the other hand, was robust, with housing sales growing rapidly on the back of monetary easing. The recovery of exports has been weak, however, as strict border controls impacted the tourism sector, the main pillar of New Zealands services exports. Also fragile is the employment situation: the

37、 unemployment rate jumped to 5.3 per cent in the third quarter from 4.0 per cent in the previous quarter.GDP GrowthGDP per capita2020COVID-19 Cases per 100,000 peopleby 1 January 2021COVID-19 related deaths per 100,000341,991Economiesin transition一 $6,435Note： The boundaries and names shown and the

38、designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.The map represents countries and/or territories or parts thereof for which data is available and/or analysed in World Economic Situation andProspects 2021. The shaded areas therefore do not necessaril

39、y overlap entirely with the delimitation of their frontiers or boundaries.Aggregate data for Africa, excluding Libya.e： 2020 estimates, f： 2021-22 forecasts.Source for covid-19 data： UNOESA calculations, based on data from Johns Hopkins University.Economies in transitionBoth in the Commonwealth of I

40、ndependent States and in South-Eastern Europe economic activities are unlikely to experience a quick recovery Lower commodity prices amplified the shock in the Commonwealth of Independent StatesTourism-dependent countries in South-Eastern Europe were hit the hardestCommonwealth of Independent States

41、 and Georgia: the pandemic has unleashed multiple shocksThe outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed multiple shocks in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Georgia, having heavily depressed economic activity since the early part of the second quarter of 2020. The imposition of lo

42、ckdowns and quarantine measures in the region, first introduced around April and then, after some loosening, reintroduced later in the year, caused far-reaching disruptions. Lower commodity prices, including for important non-oil commodities exported by the CIS countries (except for gold, whose high

43、er price benefited gold exporters in Central Asia), exacerbated the contractionary effects of the pandemic (figure III.4). These shocks have been widespread across the region, resulting in declines in output in almost all countries. The magnitude of those declines has depended on a countrys economic

44、 structure and its capacity to adopt offsetting measures.The regions services sector has been particularly affected by the pandemic, with international tourism, a critical economic sector for some countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, having been dealt a telling blow. Trade and transport disru

45、ptions in the region and reductions in levels of economic activity in the Russian Federation have led to a decrease in remittances and disrupted temporary migration flows, with a significant impact on small-Figure III.4Global prices of selected commodities exported by the CIS countries120-100 -80-60

46、-40-Natural gasOil (Brent)Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20Source: UNCTAD and FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) database.20-Consumption has declined sharply and living standards have been deterioratingThe regions energyimporting countries saw deeper contractions in 20

47、20Some countries responded to the crisis by implementing large stimulus packagesInflation remained for the most part contained, while labour-market conditions deteriorateder economies in Central Asia. Although non-service sectors performed relatively better, oil production cuts under the OPEC+ agree

48、ment depressed industrial output in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. In addition, bad harvests contributed to poor economic performance in Azerbaijan and Ukraine. After expanding by 2.2 per cent in 2019, the aggregate GDP of CIS and Georgia is estimated to have shrunk by 3.4 per ce

49、nt in 2020. Only a modest recovery is expected, with growth of 3.4 per cent for 2021 and 3 per cent for 2022.Consumption in the region sharply contracted in 2020 as a result of the restrictions associated with the instituting of quarantines, higher unemployment and lower remittances, which led to a worsening of living standards, despite the provisi