PMI中国制造业季刊.docx

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1、Williamkongfung1937 PMI Quarterly on China ManufacturingPMI 1Q21Robust growth in manufacturing production and economic activityPolicy OutlookChina to maintain necessary policy support for economy2Q21 ForecastsReal GDP growth to reach 8.0% yoy while PMI to fluctuate within 51.0 to 52.0Fung Business I

2、ntelligenceHelen ChinVice President helenchinfung1937 William KongSenior Research ManagerChina Federation of Logistics & PurchasingChen ZhongTaocztGrowth in manufacturing production to stay high in 2Q21Exhibit 8 demonstrates the correlation (with some lags) between the output index and the year-on-y

3、ear growth of value-added of industrial output (VAIO). Given an improving domestic and external demand and a low comparison base in the same period last year, Chinas VAIO growth is expected to top 8.5% yoy in 2Q21. Still, challenges facing Chinese manufacturers include a fragile external demand caus

4、ed by the COVID-19 pandemic, ongoing trade frictions between China and the US, intense competition in the international market, and strong governments determination to reduce industrial carbon emissions.We expect that the VAIO growth will top 8.5% yoy in 2Q21, amid an improving domestic and external

5、 demand and a low comparison base in the same period last year.Industrial production(yoy growth %)PMI: Output254035302520151050 巧-10-15-20Exhibit 8: Output index and industrial production growth, April 2016 to March 2021PMI： OutputIndustrial production (yoy growth %)Source: China Federation of Logis

6、tics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of Statistics4. What the PMI tells us about the overall market demandOverall market demand picks up fastThe new orders index fell from 52.3 in January to 51.5 in February and then rose to 53.6 in March. The relatively fast growth of new orders in March indica

7、tes a fast pick up in the overall market demand lately.Meanwhile, the new export orders also picked up from 48.8 in February to 51.2 in March, indicating that new export orders have increased lately. (See exhibit 9)Exhibit 9: New orders index and new export orders index, January 2005 to March 2021So

8、urce: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of StatisticsWith a continued improvement in external demand, we are optimistic about the near-term prospects of Chinas exports. We forecast that Chinas exports will jump by over 15.0% yoy in 2Q21.Sustained recovery in external

9、demand bodes well for exports in 2Q21Exhibit 10 plots the new export orders index against the year-on-year growth rates of Chinas exports. As the new export orders index has risen above the critical 50-mark lately, we are optimistic about the near-term prospects of Chinas exports.From exhibit 11 we

10、can see that the new export orders index has been strongly correlated to the external economies, especially the developed economies. The OECD composite leading indicator The OECD composite leading indicator, compiled by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, is designed to provid

11、e early signals of turning points (peaks and troughs) between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity, and covers Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand,

12、 Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States. continued to pick up in 1Q21, suggesting a sustained recovery in external demand for Chinas exports. Combined with a low comparison base in the same period last year, we forecast that Ch

13、inas exports w川 jump by over 15.0% yoy in 2Q21.Exhibit 10： New export orders index and export growth, April 2016 to March 2021PMI: New export orders757065553025PMI: New export ordersExports (yoy growth %)Exports (yoy growth %)1601 4120100806040200-20-40-6060Source: China Federation of Logistics & Pu

14、rchasing, China National Bureau of Statistics, China CustomsExhibit 11: New export orders index and OECD composite leading indicator, January 2005 to March 2021Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of Statistics, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developme

15、nt5. What the PMI tells us about upstream and midstream prices5. What the PMI tells us about upstream and midstream pricesSurge in upstream prices exerts high cost pressures on manufacturersThe input prices index went up from 67.1 in January to 69.4 in March. The index readings continued its uptrend

16、 and were well above the critical 50-mark, indicating an accelerated increase in the prices of production inputs recently, which would raise the cost pressures on Chinese manufacturers. (Exhibit 12)Exhibit 12： Input prices index, April 2019 to March 2021Severe cost pressure (above 70%)High cost pres

17、sure (60%-70%)Moderate cost pressure (50%-60%)30Decreasing cost pressure (below 50%)2520PMI: Input pricesSource: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of StatisticsTo see the extent to which input costs of Chinese manufacturers are affected by global commodity prices, exh

18、ibit 13 puts together the input prices index and the Thomson Reuters/ CoreCommodity CRB index. The Thomson Reuters/ CoreCommodity CRB Index, which comprises 19 commodities such as crude oil, aluminum, corn, cotton, gold, natural gas, soybeans, etc, has served as one of the most recognized measures o

19、f global commodity prices.To see the extent to which input costs of Chinese manufacturers are affected by global commodity prices, exhibit 13 puts together the input prices index and the Thomson Reuters/ CoreCommodity CRB index. The Thomson Reuters/ CoreCommodity CRB Index, which comprises 19 commod

20、ities such as crude oil, aluminum, corn, cotton, gold, natural gas, soybeans, etc, has served as one of the most recognized measures of global commodity prices.Exhibit 13: Input prices index and Thomson Reuters/ CoreCommodity CRB Index, April 2016 to March 2021PMI: Input pricesThomson Reuters/ CoreC

21、ommodity CRB Index (month-end)PMI: Input pricesThomson Reuters/ CoreCommodity CRB Index (month-end)Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of Statistics, Thomson ReutersManufacturers raise ex-factory prices of their productsThe ex-factory prices index rose from 57.2

22、 in January to 58.5 in February and further to 59.8 in March, indicating that Chinese manufacturers have continued to raise the exfactory prices of their finished products lately amid rising cost pressures and improving sales environment. The ex-factory prices index has been released since January 2

23、017. (Exhibit 14)Exhibit 14: Ex-factory prices index, April 2019 to March 2021Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of StatisticsPurchaser price index and PPI to pick up furtherExhibit 15 shows that the input prices index is useful as a leading indicator of upstre

24、am prices. To show the association between the input prices index and midstream prices, we plot the input prices index against the year-on-year growth of the producer price index (PPI)4 in exhibit 16.Going forward, we expect that the year-on-year growth rates for both the purchaser price index and t

25、he PPI w川 rise further and reach their near-term peaks in 2Q21.We expect that the year- on-year growth rates for both the purchaser price index and the PPI will rise further and reach their near-term peaks in 2Q21PMI: Input prices807570 APurchaser price index (yoy18505050505665544332growth %)5 90901

26、5-15Exhibit 15: Input prices index and purchaser price index of industrial products, January 2005 to March 2021PMI: Input pricesPurchaser price index of industrial products (yoy growth %)Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of StatisticsExhibit 16: Input prices i

27、ndex and producer price index, January 2005 to March 2021PMI: Input pricesPPI (yoy growth %)PMI: Input pricesPPI (yoy growth %)PMI: Input pricesProducer price index of industrial products (yoy growth %)Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of Statistics6. What the

28、 PMI tells us about manufacturing employmentRecent pick up in employment index indicates improvement in manufacturing employmentThe employment index increased from 48.1 in February to 50.1 in March, returning to the expansionary zone. The latest index reading indicates that the employment situation

29、in the manufacturing sector has improved lately. (Exhibit 17)Exhibit 17: Employment index, April 2019 to March 202155Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of StatisticsSource: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of StatisticsGiven a s

30、trong recovery in the export sector and the overall economy, we expect the employment situation in the manufacturing sector to remain robust in 2Q21.Exhibit 18 proves that the employment in Chinas manufacturing sector has relied heavily on the export sector. Exhibit 19 and 20 give our readers some i

31、deas about the extent to which the employment situation improves or deteriorates with the manufacturing sector and the overall economy. Given a strong recovery in the export sector and the overall economy, we expect that the employment situation in the manufacturing sector will remain robust in 2Q21

32、.Exhibit 18: Employment and new export orders, January 2005 to March 2021Exhibit 19: Employment index and headline PMI, January 2005 to March 2021Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of StatisticsExhibit 20: Employment index and real GDP growth, April 2016 to Mar

33、ch 2021PMI: EmploymentReal GDP (yoy growth %)Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, China National Bureau of StatisticsAbout China Manufacturing PMI:China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufact

34、uring sector. It is jointly published by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Fung Business Intelligence is responsible for drafting and disseminating the English PMI report.Every month questionnaires are sent to 3,000 manufacturing enterpris

35、es all over China. The data presented herein is compiled from the enterprises5 responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. CFLP makes no representation regarding the data collection procedures, nor does it disclose any data of individual enterprises. The PMI should be compared

36、 to other economic data sources when used in decision- making.3,000 manufacturing enterprises in 31 industries from Eastern, Northeastern, Central and Western China are surveyed. The sampling of the enterprises involves the use of Probability Proportional to Size Sampling (PPS), which means the sele

37、ction of enterprises surveyed is largely based on each industrys contribution to GDP, and the representation of each geographical region.There are 13 sub-indicators in the survey: Output, New Orders, New Export Orders, Backlogs of Orders, Stocks of Finished Goods, Purchases of Inputs, Imports, Input

38、 Prices, Stocks of Major Inputs, Ex-factory Prices, Employment, Suppliers5 Delivery Time and Business Expectations. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall positive change in a sub-indicator; below 50, an overall negative change.The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted in

39、dices for five of the sub-indicators with varying weights: New Orders30%; Output25%; Employment 20%; Suppliers5 Delivery Time15%; and Stocks of Major Inputs10%. A PMI reading above 50 indicates an overall expansion in the manufacturing sector; below 50, an overall contraction.Currently there are mor

40、e than twenty countries and regions conducting the PMI survey and compilation, based on an internationally standardized methodology.Helen ChinVice PresidentE: helenchinfung1937 William KongSenior Research Manager E: williamkongfung1937 Fung Business Intelligence1/F LiFung Tower888 Cheung Sha Wan Roa

41、dKowloon, Hong KongT: (852) 2300 2470F: (852) 2635 1598E: fbicgroupfung1937 W: :/ fbicgroup Chen ZhongTaocztChina Federation of Logistics &PurchasingGDP growth (%)GDP growthGDP growth forecastsPMI points to robust growth in manufacturing production and economic activity in 1Q21Our observationsExpans

42、ion of large enterprises accelerates while medium and small enterprises return to expansion. Manufacturing production expands at a relatively rapid pace as overall demand picks up fast. New export orders increase amid a sustained recovery in external demand. Prices of production inputs surge, adding

43、 cost pressures on Chinese manufacturers. Manufacturers raise ex-factory prices of their products amid increasing cost pressures and improving sales environment. Manufacturing employment increases alongside a strong recovery in the export sector and overall economy.Policy outlookThe Chinese governme

44、nt will maintain necessary policy support for the economy. The proactive fiscal policy will be implemented in a manner that is of higher quality, more effective and more sustainable. Meanwhile, the prudent monetary policy will be pursued in a more flexible, tailored and appropriate way, with steps t

45、o ensure reasonably sufficienf liquidity and a stable macro leverage ratio. These policies will help promote the continued recovery of the Chinese economy.Our forecasts for 2Q21We project a further expansion of manufacturing production and economic activity in 2Q21. The headline PMI will stay above

46、50 and fluctuate within 51.0 to 52.0. Real GDP growth will reach 8.0% yoy. VAIO growth will top 8.5% yoy. Exports will jump by over 15.0% yoy. Year-on-year growth rates for both the purchaser price index and the PPI will rise further and reach their near-term peaks.Headline PMI54.053.049.048.0f 梦汴心点

47、 SPMIPMI forecastsAbout the Organisations:China Federation of Logistics & PurchasingChina Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) is the logistics and purchasing industry association approved by the State Council. CFLPs mission is to push forward the development of the logistics industry and the

48、 procurement businesses of both government and enterprises, as well as the circulation of factors of production in China. The government authorizes the CFLP to produce industry statistics and set industry standards. CFLP is also Chinas representative in the Asian-Pacific Logistics Federation (APLF) and the International Federation of Purchasing and Supply Management (IFPSM).Fung Business IntelligenceFung Business In