亚洲之外的新兴市场消费科技：数字之旅才刚刚开始.docx

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1、By: Ravi JainHSBCGlobal ResearchEquitiesFuture ConsumerApril 2021SPOTLIGHTEM ex Asia Consumer TechThe digital journey has just begunTech has now disrupted the entire consumer wallet; while the US is still digitally underpenetrated, EM is early in the first inningsDespite twice as many internet users

2、 and 40% of GDP vs the US, EM ex Asia consumer tech market cap is 13% of the US comparableWe focus on five key themes across consumer sectors of the digital economy, lay out thoughts on TAM, analyze DM majors, and highlight 20 stocks in EM ex Asia as well as a few unicorns worth monitoringPlay inter

3、view with Ravi JainDisclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.20 Major EM ex Asia stocks and 15 private unicorns worth followingListedConsumer tech exposureUnicorns

4、 Consumer tech exposureProsus/NaspersFood delivery, online grocery, Classifieds, FinTech, Ed Tech, E-commerceNuBankFintech (Brazil)MELIE-commerce, FinTechWildberriesE-commerce (based in Russia)Delivery HeroFood delivery, online groceryRappiFood delivery, online grocery, FinTech (LatAm)Magazine Luiza

5、E-commerce, FinTechCreditasFintech (Brazil)YandexRide hailing, food delivery, online grocery, classifieds, streaming (beyond search)PicPayFintech (Brazil)PagseguroFinTechC6Fintech (Brazil)AllegroE-commerceGetirOnline grocery (based in Turkey)KaspiFinTech, E-commerceGympassFitness services booking pl

6、atform (Brazil)SafaricomFinTech (beyond telecom services)Quinto AndarReal estate classifiedsOzonE-commerceMadeiraSpecialized e-commerce (Brazil)TinkoffFinTechUalaFintech (based in Argentina)Lojas Americanas/B2W E-commerce, FinTechLoftReal estate classifieds (Brazil)Banco InterFinTechAlphaCreditFinTe

7、ch (Mexico, Colombia)Mail.RuFood delivery, ride hailing, classifieds (beyond social networking and gaming)KavakAuto classifieds (Mexico, Brazil)JumiaE-commerce, FinTechBoltRide hailing, food delivery (EMEA)Global Fashion GroupE-commerceFawryFinTechDespegarTravel booking platformSource: HSBCUS shows

8、the roadmap for EM ex AsiaThe table above shows 20 major consumer tech stocks and a few private unicorns that are worth following. We believe the next few years are going to be transformational for EM ex Asia consumer tech. Developed markets like the US and tech mature markets like China have shown

9、us the roadmap of what to expect for the major countries in EM ex Asia (top 10 by GDP include Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Turkey, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Colombia, South Africa, and Chile). The total population in the top 10 markets in EM ex Asia is 811 m, 2.5x that of the US, with internet pen

10、etration at 70% (19ppt behind the US) and smartphone penetration at 55% (also 19ppt behind the US). Combined GDP of the top 10 markets was USD8.3trn in 2019, almost 40% of the US, with household consumption at USD4.9trn, a third of the US. Despite total consumption at 33% of the US, the market cap o

11、f the top 15 listed consumer tech plays stands at only 13% of the top 30 players in the US (for global majors, market pro-rated to the US). Note that we looked at all major consumer tech companies that were either pure tech or at least 50% online with a market cap of at least USD1 bn. We were able t

12、o find at least 30 US listed companies, but only 15 major listed companies in the top 10 countries within EM ex Asia. Total market cap within the top 10 EM ex Asia markets is USD168bn, compared to USD1.3trn for US tech plays.Swati Soni contributed to this report. Ms. Soni is employed by a non-US aff

13、iliate of HSBC Securities (USA) lnc.f and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.Top charts of the reportExploring the consumer tech world as it disrupts the entire walletXV HSBCPersonal consumption budget and corresponding consumer tech disruptorsHealthcareNon-food retailAuto/fue

14、lOthersTelemedicine, ePharamcies and appointment platformsMarketplacesClassifiedsMarketplace forservicesDM: Babylon Health, Teladoc, MeMD, Amwell, Doctolib, MDLive,ZocDocDM: Amazon, eBay, Wayfair, Chewy,Etsy, Zalando, FarFetch, Wish, THG(First derivative: Pay pal, Shopify,Ad yen, Stripe, Fedex, UPS)

15、DM: Carvan a, Autohome,Autotrader, AutolEM ex Asia: ProsusDM: Angi, HomeAdvisor,Thumbtack, TaskRabbit,Avvo,CEM ex Asia: DocPIanner Group21%EM ex Asia: MELI, Magazine Luiza,Allegro, Wild berries, Ozon, B2W,Jumia(First derivative: Aramex, Locaweb,Loggi, Sequoia logistics)8%8%Food at homeSource: US BEA

16、, HSBC; We use the consumer wallet breakdown in the US given bener disdcsure and reportingOnline grocery14%DM: Instacart, Ocado, Hello FreshEM ex Asia : Rappi, GetirFinancial services/insuranceFinTechFood servicesDM: Paypal (Venmo), Square (Cash),Revolut, Monzo, N26, Affirm, Chime,Robinhood, SoFi, K

17、larnaEM ex Asia:Kaspi, MELI, NubamPAGS, Tinkoff, Banco Inter, Credita：Pic payFood delivery aggregatorsDM: DoorDash, Uber, JeTEM ex Asia: Delivery Hero, Prosus,Mail.ru, YandexTravel/recreationRide hailing, OnlinebookingsDM: Uber, BKNG, AirbnbEM ex Asia: Yandex,Mail.ru, Despeg arioTelecom/mediaEducati

18、onStreaming1dhiTech 11DM: NetflixCoursera,Udemy,Prosus3%2%Equ 三 es Fucre ConsumerApr一一 2021From visionary founders of consumer tech firms:One thing I love about customers is that they are divinely discontentJeff Bezos, AmazonStone Age. Bronze Age. Iron Age. We define entire epics of humanity by the

19、technology they useReed Hastings, NetflixWe want transportation as reliable as running waterTravis Kalanick, UberThe issue is not to ask your customers what they want today, but to try to imagine what the customer is going to want in a world where, for instance, their cellphone is in their glassesJa

20、y S Walker, Booking HoldingsAmerican households spend over a hundred hours every single year shopping for groceries, thats the time they could spend with their families, with their friends, doing the things that they loveApoorva Mehta, InstacartEducation is not about thinning the herd. Education is

21、about helping every student succeedAndrew Ng, CourseraHSBCEqu 三 es Fucre ConsumerApr一一 2021Delivering Good: Its a MovementTony Xu, Door DashThey*ve never been able to see the whole store. Now we*re turning on the lights. Buyers can see home values to avoid overpayingRich Barton, ZillowXV HSBCCustome

22、rs are willing to try new things, and if you can survive, you will have fewer competitors. It*s like entering the eye of the storm. As long as you are strong enough to survive, you can end up in still water by yourselfBrian Chesky, AirbnbAll these people from different dealerships were buying cars,

23、and it only took all of 30 seconds for them to decide to purchase a car and actually buy itI thought, could we get customers closer to that 30-secondexperience instead of the four-plus hours that was the status quo for car buying?Ernest Garcia III, CarvanaFor the vast majority of Americans, being ab

24、le to talk to a doctor in an hour is next to impossibleMichael Gorton, TeladocThe world is now awash in data and we can see consumers in a lot clearer waysMax Levchin, AffirmEqu 三 es Fucre ConsumerApr一一 2021Penetration of listed consumer tech: EM ex Asia vs the USPopulation (m)3288112.5xNumber of ho

25、useholds (m)1262582xInternet users2925712xSmartphone users2444461.8xInternet penetration89%70%19ppSmartphone penetration74%55%-19PPGDP (USDbn)21,4338,36239.0%Consumption (USDbn)14,5454,85833.4%Mkt cap of top listed consumer tech plays (USDbn)1,31216812.8%USTop 10 EM ex AsiaTop 10 EM ex Asia/USSource

26、: HSBCHSBCBreakdown of consumer tech: EM ex Asia vs the USDisrupted byUS (USDbn)Public Private Top 10 EM ex Asia economies (USDbn)TotalPublic PrivateTotalHealthcareTelemedicineTeladoc, Amwell, GoodRx4848Housing/utilitiesClassifieds and CtxZillow, Opendoor4646Prosus classifieds, Loft314Non-food retai

27、lMarketplacesAmazon, eBay, Wayfair, Etsy, Stitch Fix, FarFetch,684684MELI, Magalu, Allegro, Ozon, B2W, Takealot, 10310113WishGFG, WildberriesFinancialFinTechSQ cash, Venmo, Affirm, Upstart Robinhood, Chime,12569194MELI wallet, NuBank, Tinkoff, Banco Inter,322759services/insuranceSoFi, KlarnaCreditas

28、Auto/fuelClassifieds and CtxCan/ana, C4949Prosus classifieds17Food at homeOnline groceryInstacart3939Rappi, Getir66Food servicesFood deliveryUberEats, DoorDash, GrubHub7575Prosus, Delivery Hero, Mail.ru, Yandex1717aggregatorsTravel/recreationRide hailing andAirbnb, Booking Holdings, Expedia, Uber, L

29、yft170170Despegar, Yandex, Mail.ru66online bookingsTelecom/MediaStreamingNetflix100100EducationEd-techCoursera, Udemy, Duolingo, Course Hero, Udacity,8916QuizletOthersAngi, Thumbtack729Market cap for listed companies; last funding round valuation for private companies1,3121191,43116844212Breakdown o

30、fTop consumer tech plays and corresponding market capsconsumer spendSource: Bloomberg. HSBCEqu 三 es Fucre ConsumerApr一一 2021Time spent on smartphones and tablets (minutes) 一 USSource: eMarketer, HSBC Feature phones Smartphones TabletsRevenue CAGR pre COVID-19 (2016-19, USD terms) and median for cons

31、umer tech compared to incumbentsSource: Bloomberg, HSBC; GMV CAGR for MGLU, ALE, BT0W3 and LAME4Top 10 countries in EM ex Asia: Spend per household (USD,000) and number of householdso o o o o o6 5 4 3 2 1(xasn)po-ssnoqUOHdEnsuo。Saudi Arabia, 309Chile, 178South Africa, 2121020304050607080Number of ho

32、useholds (m)Source: UN, HSBC; Size of bubbles correspond to total household consumption in that country in USDbnNon-food retail disrupted by e-commerce marketplacesSource: Euromonitor, HSBCE-commerce penetration: Top 5 EMs ex Asia vs top 5 DM、 Top 5 DMs Top 5 EMs ex Asiaa三孤 uo 一孤auad 83=ePOEJO % SP

33、8SEE006 POOLL.South Koreao%o%5%a.InchJapan . Germanyo%5%20%3035%40%E-commerce penerationas a % of overall retailSource: Euromonitor, HSBCSource: Companies, eMarketer, HSBCGMV of food delivery platforms as a percentage of food service spend in the US GMV(USDbn) Penetration of food serviceSource: eMar

34、keter, US BEA, HSBCUS consumer spend on taxis and ride sharing; Uber was founded in 20091999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Source: US BEADigital ad spend and proportion of classifieds within thatDigital ad spend % of overall media

35、ad spendpuads pp -SB一 p jo % SP3MZ一 SSBOHome/auto disrupted by classifieds and travel/leisure disrupted by booking platforms and ride hailing161412108642Source: eMarketer, HSBCGlobal gross bookings growth at booking platforms (left chart) and Uber mobility (right chart, growth y-o-y) AirbnbBKNG Expe

36、diaSource: Companies, HSBCWhy read this report? Tech has now disrupted the entire consumer wallet; while the US is still digitally underpenetrated, EM is early in the first innings Despite twice as many internet users and 40% of GDP vs the US, EM ex Asia consumer tech market cap is 13% of the US com

37、parable We focus on five key themes across consumer sectors of the digital economy, lay out thoughts on TAM, analyze DM majors, and highlight 20 stocks in EM ex Asia as well as a few unicorns worth monitoringRavi JainSenior Analyst, EM Consumer & RetailHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.ravijain+ 1 212 525 3

38、442Digital transformation in the last decade has been exponential. Imagine what the next 10 years could bring. Take a step back and consider the changes in the last 10 years: global smartphone penetration has risen from 5% to 41%, while average time spent on mobile phones and tablets has gone from 2

39、4 minutes to more than 4.5 hours per day in the US. In the previous decade, there were two large consumer tech businesses: e-commerce marketplaces and travel booking platforms. But in the last decade, consumer tech has spread across a wide spectrum of businesses: from streaming a movie, to booking a

40、 ride, ordering restaurant food, and getting groceries delivered, to transferring money in seconds. Tech is also influencing our bigger asset decisions like car and home purchases, as well as our doctor visits and continuing education. Imagine, what the next 10 years could bring, especially given th

41、e exponential rate of change we are seeing. US e-commerce in 2020 was USD792bn or merely 5.6% of the overall consumption pie of USD14trn.The entire consumer wallet is up for grabs. In this report, we break down the wallet into 10 products and services that a household spends money on and find tech disruptors across the board. Healthcare/pharma is being disrupted