经济管理学及财务知识分析人双语版fdao.docx

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1、Evaluation Warning: The document was created with Spire.Doc for .NET.The bbusinness of ppolo马马球业Clloneyy ponnies克克隆赛马HHow ttechnnologgy coould trannsforrm ann anccientt spoort技术术如何改变变一项古老老运动Jaan 5tth 20013 | BUEENOS AIREES | fromm thee priint eeditiionIMMAGINNE a foottballl mattch ppittiing 111 cllo

2、ness of Waynne Roooneyy agaainstt 11 moree cloones of tthe ssame spudd-facced MManchhesteer Unnitedd strrikerr. Evven aavid Waynne-waatcheers mmightt finnd itt a bbit ddull. Butt pollo faans mmay oone dday bbe trreateed too sommethiing ssimillar. No oone iis prropossing to cclonee thee staallioons w

3、who wwieldd thee mallletss, off couurse. Butt thee staallioons tthey sit on aare aanothher mmatteer. OOutsttandiing ppolo horsses aare hhard to ffind and horrriblyy exppensiive. Eachh worrld-cclasss ridder mmay hhave dozeens, the bestt of whicch maay coost mmore thann $2000,0000 eaach.设设想一场足足球比赛，111

4、位韦恩恩鲁尼（WWaynee Roooney）的的克隆人对对阵另外111位与这这位曼联前前锋长着同同一张土豆豆脸的克隆隆人，就算算韦恩的狂狂热观众也也会觉得有有点无趣。但有朝一一日，马球球迷会遇到到类似的事事。当然，无无人建议克克隆那些挥挥动长柄球球棍、像种种马一般健健美的男子子。不过，他他们胯下的的种马则另另当别论了了。出色的的马球赛马马很难找到到，价格也也贵得吓人人。每位世世界级骑手手或许都有有十几匹赛赛马，其中中的佼佼者者，每匹花花费或许超超过20万万美元。SSo brreediing ggreatt mouunts is bbig bbusinness. It usedd to be

5、hhit-aand-mmiss, butt neww tecchnollogy is mmakinng itt lesss soo. Inn 20110 thhe woorlds fiirst clonned ppolo ponyy wass borrn. TThe ttechnniquee hass sinnce ccaughht fiire iin Arrgenttina, thee gloobal capiital of pprofeessioonal poloo. Addolfoo Cammbiasso, pprobaably the worllds beest pplayeer, h

6、has tteameed upp witth Allan MMeekeer off Creestviiew GGenettics, a TTexann firrm, tto cllone eighht off hiss mouunts.于是，繁繁殖优良坐坐骑就成了了一桩大买买卖。这事事以前靠“碰运气”，但新技技术让成功功率高了些些。20110年，第第一匹克隆隆马球赛马马降生到这这世间。自自此，这一一技术在全全球专业马马球之都阿根廷廷推广。阿阿道夫坎比亚索索（Adoolfo Cambbiasoo）或许是是世界最佳佳马球骑手手，他与美美国德州克克里斯由基基因公司（CCresttvieww Genn

7、eticcs）的艾艾伦米克（AAlan Meekker）合合作，克隆隆了8匹坐坐骑。Thhe clloness loook annd acct liike ttheirr “pareents”. Doolfinna Laapa, one of MMr Caambiaasos sttar mmaress, iss “meanner tthan meann”, saays MMr Meeekerr. Heer clloness? “Theyyll kkick you, theeyll bbite youjustt likke Laapa. Its unncannny.”这些克隆隆马外表与与行动肖似

8、似其“父母”。米克先先生称，坎坎比亚索先先生有匹明明星母马多多菲娜拉帕（DDolfiina LLapa），“极难驯服”。她的克隆后代呢？“它们踢你、咬你，就跟拉帕一样。不可思议。”Polos various governing bodies have approved clones for competition, but since polo horses seldom compete until they are five years old, no clone has yet been tested in a match. Buyers are undeterred. A three-m

9、onth-old clone of Mr Cambiasos Cuartetera fetched $800,000 at auction in Buenos Airesthe most expensive sale in polo history.马球比赛各级管理机构同意克隆马参赛，但赛马5岁前很少上场，因此还没有一匹克隆马经过了比赛考验。买家并未退缩。坎比亚索先生一匹叫Cuartetera的马克隆出的一个后代才三个月大，就在布宜诺斯艾利斯拍卖会上卖得了80万美元，是马球史上最贵的一笔交易。Mr Meeker holds an exclusive licence to use a speci

10、fic technique (the one used to create Dolly the Sheep in 1996) to clone horses that have been, or might be, used for polo. This licence is widely recognised, but not in Argentina, where a rival cloning firm, Kheiron Laboratories, began operations in March.米克先生持有一张专营许可证，可使用一种专项技术（1996年曾用其克隆出了绵羊多莉）克隆曾

11、经或可能的马球赛马。这一许可证得到广泛认可，却不被阿根廷接受。该国一家克隆公司喀戎实验室（Kheiron Laboratories）加入竞争，2012年3月开始运营。Cuartetera, et cetera赛马Cuartetera及其他Mr Meeker is anxious not to “sell the factory”. He invited the Argentine executive who bought Cuarteteras clone to form a partnership with Crestview instead of cloning the horse him

12、self. The executive agreed and, despite being offered $2m for another Cuartetera, the partners pledged not to sell any more clones of the same horse. Instead they will channel some clones to competition, and sell the ovules and sperm of others to breeders. “The idea is not to have games where four C

13、uarteteras are playing four Cuarteteras,” insists Mr Meeker.米克先生并不急于“卖厂”。他邀请购买了Cuartetera克隆马的阿根廷公司老板与克里斯由公司合作，而非由其自行克隆。这位买家接收了邀请，而且，尽管有人出价200万美元要求再买一匹Cuartetera克隆马，两位合伙人都承诺不再出售这匹马的其它克隆体。相反，他们将会把一些克隆马引入竞赛，并且将其它赛马的卵子和精子出售给育种人。米克先生坚称，“这一想法并不是让四匹Cuarteteras与四匹Cuarteteras同场竞技。”Crestview has created 60 cl

14、ones so far, and Mr Meeker hopes to produce between 20 and 30 next year. That will not keep pace with demand, however: one eager player has requested 100 copies of the same horse. Kheiron, which can clone 10-20 horses a year, is booked solid through half of 2014. Firms that clone polo ponies are set

15、 to mint it.克里斯由公司迄今已克隆了60匹马，米克先生希望2013年能克隆2030匹。可是，这仍供不应求：一位急不可耐的骑手要求购买同一匹马的100匹克隆后代。喀戎实验室公司每年可克隆1020匹马，预订已排到2014年中了。马球赛马克隆公司注定财源滚滚。Multiileveel maarketting多多层次营销销The botttom lline底底线Herrbaliife iis shhorteed康宝莱莱被做空JJan 55th 22013 | NEEW YOORK | froom thhe prrint edittion“IF II am righht, iits ssha

16、ree priice wwill go tto zeero,” sayys Biill AAckmaan, tthe ffoundder oof Peershiing SSquarre Caapitaal, aa heddge ffund, whoo inssistss he has neveer feelt sso coonfiddent in sshortting a coompannys sttock. On Deceemberr 20tth hee invvitedd an audiiencee of his peerrs too heaar hiis deeclarratioon o

17、ff warr agaainstt Herrbaliife, a seellerr of diettary suppplemeents and vitaaminss. Hiis cllaim thatt thee 32-yearr-oldd commpanyy is an “illeegal pyraamid scheeme” hadd an immeediatte immpactt: Heerballifes shhare pricce feell ffrom overr $400 a ccouplle off dayys beeforee thee preesenttatioon too

18、$266 on Deceemberr 24tth. HHowevver, Herbbaliffe iss figghtinng baack. Its manaagerss denny Mrr Ackkmans acccusaationns annd prromisse a detaailedd rebbuttaal sooon. The comppanys shharess havve raallieed, eendinng 20012 aat allmostt $333, a markket ccapittalissatioon off aroound $3.66 billlionn.“我要

19、是没没错，康宝宝莱的股票票会跌得一一文不值。”对冲基金金潘兴广场场资本公司司的创始人人比尔阿克曼（BBill Ackmman）如如是说。他他强调对于于做空康宝宝莱他信心心十足。112月200日，他请请来一批同同行，见证证了他对出出售保健品品和维生素素的康宝莱莱公司宣战战。比尔阿克曼声声称这家有有32年历历史的公司司是个“非法传销销组织”，这话立立竿见影：12月224日，康康宝莱的股股价从比尔尔阿克曼放放话前几天天的40多多美元跌至至26美元元。不过，康康宝莱正在在实施反击击。公司管管理层否认认比尔阿克曼的的声讨，并并承诺很快快会详细地地对此进行行反驳。目目前康宝莱莱股价已经经反弹，在在2012

20、2年底回升升至将近333美元，市市值约366亿美元。Herbbaliffe iss onee of the worllds beest-kknownn “multtilevvel mmarkeetingg” commpaniies, alonng wiith AAvon and Amwaay. HHordees off inddepenndentt inddividdual selllers, manny spportiing bbadgees wiith tthe sslogaan “Losee weiight now. Askk me how”, diistriibutee itss pr

21、ooductts. TThesee selllerss aree reccruitted bby peeoplee on a hiigherr tieer off thee marrketiing sstruccturee, whho reeceivve a slicce off thee commmisssion on ssaless madde byy thoose wwhom theyy reccruitt.康宝莱莱和雅芳、安利一样样，是世界界知名的“多层次营营销”公司之一一。一大群群独立的个个体推销员员到处推销销着康宝莱莱的产品，很很多还戴着着显眼的标标志，上面面写着“减肥此刻刻起，秘

22、诀诀康宝莱”。公司营营销体系中中级别更高高的人将这这些推销员员招至麾下下，并从他他们的销售售产品获得得的佣金中中抽取部分分。Mulltileevel markketinng iss a hhuge busiinesss. Inn 20111 diirectt selllingg (thhe vaast mmajorrity of iit thhrouggh muultillevell marrketiing) by aarounnd 166m diistriibutoors ggenerratedd salles oof allmostt $300 billlionn in Amerrica.

23、 Worrldwiide, somee 92mm disstribbutorrs grrosseed $1154 bbilliion, accoordinng too thee Dirrect Sellling Assoociattion, an induustryy grooup.多多层次营销销是盘大生生意。根据据行业组织织直销协会会的数据，22011年年，美国约约16000万个直销销人员通过过直销（其其中大部分分是通过多多层次营销销）获得了了将近3000亿美元元的销售额额。而全球球大约96600万个个直销人员员的总收入入则为15540亿美美元。Muultillevell marrketee

24、rs ttake painns too disstingguishh theeir bbusinnessees (wwhichh aree leggal) fromm pyrramidd schhemess (whhich are not). Inn a ppyrammid, recrruitmment is eeveryythinng. PPeoplle paay too parrticiipatee, annd arre reewardded bby fiindinng ottherss willlingg to pay to jjoin. At somee poiint tthe ssu

25、pplly off neww reccruitts drries up aand tthe ppyrammid ccollaapsess.多层次次营销公司司都竭力将将自己的业业务（合法法）和传销销（非法）划划清界线。在一个传传销组织里里，发展下下线才是生生存之道。人们掏钱钱加入传销销组织，又又通过发展展下线来收收取回报。到了招不不到人的时时候，传销销组织便土土崩瓦解。Multtilevvel mmarkeetingg is not likee thiis. LLegittimatte fiirms relyy on salees off reaal prroduccts ffor ttheir

26、r inccome, nott on feess chaargedd to new recrruitss. Mrr Ackkman conttendss thaat Heerballife reliies oon reecruiitmennt, nnot ssaless of its prodductss to genuuine custtomerrs (aas oppposeed too neww disstribbutorrs, wwho aare rrequiired to bbuy aa battch tto jooin tthe ssaless forrce). Micchaell

27、Johhnsonn, Heerballifes chhief execcutivve, rretorrts tthat overr 90% of prodduct salees arre ouutsidde itts diistriibutiion nnetwoork.多多层次营销销却不同。合法的公公司是靠出出售实际商商品，而不不是向新成成员收取费费用来赚钱钱的。比尔尔阿克曼坚坚称康宝莱莱赚钱靠的的是不断招招人，并没没有将产品品卖给真正正的顾客（而而是卖给新新加入的推推销员，他他们加入时时必须先购购买一批产产品）。康康宝莱CEEO 迈克克约翰逊（MMichaael JJohnsson,）反反驳

28、说公司司超过900%的产品品都是卖到到经销网外外的。Mrr Ackkman sayss Herrbaliifes maarketting mateerialls giive aa missleadding imprressiion oof hoow eaasy iit iss to makee monney bby seellinng itts prroduccts. By hhis ccalcuulatiions, onlly 0.14% of HHerbaalifees 2.7m sselleers eearn moree thaan $220,0000 a yearr grooss, a

29、nd 93% earnn no commmissiions at aall. Herbbaliffe iss conntinuuallyy entterinng neew maarketts, ffrom Mexiico tto Ghhana, butt thee suppply of vvirgiin maarketts maay sooon ddry uup, cclaimms Mrr Ackkman.比尔阿克曼又又称，康宝宝莱公司的的销售资料料让大家误误以为推销销其产品很很容易赚钱钱。据他估估计，康宝宝莱的两百百七十万推推销员中只只有0.114%每年年总收入超超过两万美美元，933%的人

30、根根本没有佣佣金。他还还说，从墨墨西哥到加加纳，康宝宝莱正在不不断地开拓拓新市场，但但新市场很很快就会被被开拓殆尽尽。Mr Ackmman iis noot allwayss rigght, but he hhas mmade a paackett by shorrtingg oveerpriiced firmms suuch aas MBBIA, a boond iinsurrer. His attaack oon Heerballife folllows touggh quuestiioninng off thee commpanyy in May, shoortlyy aftter ii

31、ts ssharee priice rreachhed aan alll-tiime hhigh of $73, by DDavidd Einnhornn, annotheer heedge fundder wwho mmade a foortunne byy calllingg thee finnanciial ccrisiis coorrecctly.比尔阿克曼不不一定对，不不过靠卖空空一些公司司（如债券券保险公司司MBIAA）股价过过高的股票票，他已经经大赚了一一笔。5月月份，康宝宝莱股价创创73美元元新高后不不久，另一一家对冲基基金的投资资者大卫霍恩（DDavidd Einnhornn

32、）严厉地地质疑康宝莱莱，接着比比尔阿克曼就就开始抨击击康宝莱。大卫霍恩曾因因准确预测测金融危机机而大赚一一笔。Hooweveer, iin Juuly AAnne Cougghlann of Nortthwessternn Uniiverssitys Keelloggg buusineess sschoool puublisshed a paaper arguuing thatt Herrbaliife iis leegitiimatee, annd “faills too meeet thhe fuundammentaal teest oof a pyraamid scheeme, beca

33、ause its comppensaationn is direectlyy rellatedd to salees voolumee (noot too reccruitting) andd theerefoore iits bbusinness cannnot ccollaapse undeer thhe weeightt of its comppensaationn plaan.” (Heerballife helpped ffinannce tthe ppaperr.)但是是，西北大大学凯洛格格商学院的的安妮考夫兰（AAnne Cougghlann）在7月月发表文章章指出，康康宝莱公司

34、司是合法的的，不符合合“非法传销销组织”的基本条条件，因为为其推销员员的报酬与与销售量（非非发展新成成员 ）直直接挂钩，所所以在这种种报酬机制制下，公司司不会跨台台。（此文文由康宝莱莱公司提供供赞助。）As The Economist went to press, regulators had not reacted publicly to Mr Ackmans accusations. Much may depend on Herbalifes detailed response at an event for analysts scheduled for January 10th. Ana

35、lysts will want to see convincing evidence that most of its sales really are to people outside its network of distributors.本期经济学人付印时，监管部门仍未对比尔阿克曼的声讨做出公开回应。康宝莱计划在1月10日面向分析人士针对比尔阿克曼的声讨进行详细的回应，监管部门的态度很可能取决于这次回应。分析人士希望看到的是，康宝莱能拿出有力的证据证明自身大部分的销售额的确来自经销网外。One thing is certain. Even if he is right, it will

36、 not add to Mr Ackmans vast fortune. He describes his campaign against Herbalife as a philanthropic act, and has promised to give his personal share in any profits from shorting its shares to charity.但有一点是肯定的：哪怕比尔阿克曼说得没错，其巨额财富也不会因此增加分毫。他说对抗康宝莱只是出于慈善，并已承诺将做空康宝莱股票所得的个人收益全数捐给慈善机构。Facebbook脸脸谱网Seearchh

37、me搜搜搜我Thhe soociall nettworkks shharess reccoverr as it ffixess itss seaarch probblem修修复自身搜搜索问题，脸脸谱网行情情重新见涨涨【注1】JJan 119th 20133 | SSAN FFRANCCISCOO |Frrom tthe pprintt ediitionnMARKK ZUCCKERBBERG is ttryinng too spiice uup thhingss onlline withh somme piillarr tallk. UUnveiilingg a rrevammped searr

38、ch eenginne onn Jannuaryy 15tth, tthe bboss of FFacebbook refeerredd to it aas thhe “thirrd piillarr” of the sociial nnetwoork aalonggsidee itss timmelinne, wwhichh letts inndiviiduall useers ppost whatt theey haave bbeen up tto, aand iits nnews feedd, whhich letss theem seee whhat ttheirr friiendss

39、 aree doiing. Faceebookks seearchh offferinng haas loong bbeen so ddire thatt anyy impproveementt to it iis a welccome reliief. But the comppany willl havve too do muchh morre inn futture if iit waants to mmountt a sserioous cchalllengee to Googgles doominaance of tthe oonlinne-seearchh bussinesss.马

40、克克扎克伯格格（Marrk Zuuckerrbergg）正试图图通过有关关支柱的探探讨来为网网络“加点儿料料”。1月155日，脸谱谱网推出一一款改良后后的搜索引引擎被总裁裁扎克伯格格称作社交交网站的“第三大支支柱”，另外两两大支柱分分别是“时间轴（ttimelline）”供用户发布自己的动态，“新闻墙（news feed）”获悉朋友的近况。长期以来，脸谱网糟糕的搜索功能一直被人们所诟病，因此，稍微一丁点儿的改进，对于脸谱网来说都值得宽慰。不过，面对如今在网络搜索界叱咤风云的一哥谷歌公司，想要向它发起实质性的挑战，未来脸谱网需要做得更多。This still accounts for the l

41、ions share of digital advertising. According to eMarketer, a research firm, an estimated $17.6 billion was spent on search ads in America alone last year, with Google pocketing three-quarters of that sum. Facebook has been focused on digital display advertising and its success in winning business ha

42、s helped its share price rise, phoenix-like, from the ashes of a catastrophic stockmarket flotation last year (see chart). If it can pinch search ads from Google and others too, its shareholders will be even more delighted.而这一成败的关键仍在于能否称霸数字广告。据调查公司eMarketer估计，去年，光是美国的搜索广告费用就达176亿美元，而这一金额的四分之三都落入谷歌的腰

43、包。脸谱网一直专注于数字显示广告，并成功赢得了相关业务，其股价因此如凤凰涅槃一般，从去年灾难性的上市余灰中重获新生（见下图）。如果能够从谷歌和其他公司手中夺取一些搜索广告的市场份额，脸谱网的各位股东将会更加满意。Hence Mr Zuckerbergs third pillar. Still in its infancy, the new search engine serves up answers to queries by tapping into peoples social networks and those of their mates. So someone who is, s

44、ay, thinking of visiting New York can search for “restaurants in New York visited by my friends” to see eateries his pals have raved about there. Lonely hearts can trawl for kindred spirits who happen to know their friends, and job-hunters can more easily track down people who know folk at companies

45、 they want to work for. All this should offer plenty of fodder for targeted ads.于是就有了扎克伯格的第三大支柱。尽管这款新式搜索引擎尚未成熟，但它可以利用用户及其朋友的社交网络信息，对人们搜索的问题给出答案。比如，正在考虑到纽约旅游的人，就能通过搜索“我朋友去过的纽约饭馆”，看到他的朋友们曾经大肆讨论过的各种纽约小饭馆。单身人士可以“广撒网”，找到他们朋友身边和自己意气相投的人。而求职者也更容易寻到为自己和心仪公司“牵线搭桥”的人。所有的这些，都能为目标广告提供充裕的素材。Some critics point ou

46、t that the social network is very late to the search game. “Its unbelievable that Facebook has taken so long to do something that should be table stakes online,” says Nate Elliott of Forrester Research. But Facebulls point out that Google, whose Google+ social network is still a shadow of Facebooks,

47、 cannot match its rivals prowess in “social” search. And they claim that Facebooks move will help it counter the likes of Siri, a voice-activated personal assistant for mobile devices from Apple, which is hoping mobile search ads will boost a share price that dipped below $500 this week, having been more than $700 in September.一些批评家指出，在搜索广告方面，脸谱网的社交网络牌打得未免太晚了。弗雷斯特研究公司的Nate Elliott表示：“脸谱网竟然为它的网络筹码花了这么久，实在令人难以置信。”但是脸谱网支持者们指出，谷歌的Google+社交网络仍然是脸谱网呆板的仿制品，因此无法撼动脸谱网在社交搜索中的霸主地位。同时，他们还宣称脸谱网此举将会为对抗来自于类似Siri【注2】（苹果手机中一款声控的个人用户助手）产品的挑战助上一臂之力。苹果公司曾于去年九月股价突破700美元，本周股价却跌破500美元，现在苹果将股价飙升的希望放在移动搜索广告上。Th