中国耐用消费品：2020年2月家电市场追 踪.docx

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1、Goldman Equiiy23 March 2020 | 6:10PM CST23 March 2020 | 6:10PM CSTSachs ResearchChina Consumer Durables: Feb 2020 appliance tracker: Online outperforms; leaders gain shareNicolas Yi86(21)2401-8922 Beijing Gao Hua Securities CompanyLimitedIn this inaugural edition of our monthly appliance tracker, we

2、 look at key metrics including ex-factory shipment for major white goods, offline & online retail sales trend for key appliance products, property sales and completion as well as key commodity prices. We summarize the key trends in Feb 2020 below.Not surprisingly, AC total ex-factory shipment volume

3、 declined by 415% in Feb, with 673% decrease in domestic market and 13.2% decrease in export due to the impact of COVID-19 on labour supply and logistics. Though Feb washing machines and refrigerators data has not come out yet, we expect a similar drop for these two categories. Factories are current

4、ly prioritizing export orders. We expect revenue growth for companies with higher overseas exposure to perform better in 1Q20 as export ex-factory shipment declined less than domestic shipment. Yet there will be increasing uncertainty on exports as the virus outbreak spreads globally.On retail sales

5、, we have seen a general slowdown for most products in the offline channel due to store closures. In online channels, despite soft performance of major white goods and traditional kitchen appliances, sales of dishwashers and small kitchen appliances grew significantly in Feb as an increasing portion

6、 of the Chinese population has been staying at home. On ASR we see the highest pricing pressure for AC whose ASP declined by c.30% in both offline and online channels. Amid weak demand, market shares continue to concentrate towards leading companies. We highlight Haier, which is gaining online share

7、 in all major white goods including AC.On the property market, the ongoing property completion trend was disrupted as new completions declined by 24% in Jan-Feb, which will have a negative impact on appliance sales to the developer channel in 1Q20. We expect the completion trend to resume as constru

8、ction activities recover. We see limited cost inflation risk as key commodity prices stay at low level primarily due to weak demand.We highlight Haier Electronics (Buy, on CL). Haier is strengthening its leadership in the core washing machine and water heater markets and also gaining share in AC whe

9、re it used to be a laggard. It has limited revenue exposure (c.5%) to overseas markets. With 12-m forward P/E approaching historical low, we reiterate Buy.Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm

10、may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to . Analysts employed by

11、non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.Exhibit 20: Global appliances comp table了 PCY dwg 丁 Up-d0/ pfkJe Wl (down”MMCtpp r一或一一”一1cv*csrroA(USSbn)201RA 7017A 201A ?019C20J0FX)1GA 2017A 201nA 2010F W0C201cA 20I7A ?O10A ZOIflf MflrMC ElowcX0651 SZCNYHJk

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17、5FTEZ-CW8.七15jOO68%Buy|，娜吸妣16%招物tAL3%腕4%4%浜歌5%雨我HMftM Mmat Mhkess11 cos. Huyt dXf%IB工，mitn.环一14%i:n.E.gcJr?.4S%.it.n*.11Z4ZMedian5-r%一E2453%23%23%K2%7%rWT%-r%r ,CMrv omsll wonoe&Supc002CG2z8ZCW6s370007KtMMrai7.623%27%,30%30%31%27%25%34(36%3fn2%,8、a%.5%3%冰，咆832.92CW27.C122 00-20%riuutMi3.02D*.吟20*i.2

18、1%21P7.2B*oo4LK3D74171130Buy4.8”1G%25%24%21%13%20s.21K27%4K4%6%1S%AO SmitiAQSusn39309%S-15722%77%?%27%31%29%2c1%1%2%3%9%4%5%6%Etect*iub STSEK1111412H%MmJ，川aiNK20*i14%12,T.g13S.12%ten.4Z3N4Z-4S.s%11XK4t27%O4cnMwdunET7 TJPYi j17no191go30%3i%w.v科J 5.213%14*14%1%11%14%1G%14%19%1VIV1%1%.5%塾4%5空TH6曲;FATRa

19、rd-B3877I- K-3PV utuTX20D-20-TffSM-WtjiryhM HUtKi-35T-4.1TKT- iffl%T5_Ti*r-3%nnRC CNTWT- 1-IE105.ICFi.*TO；W1R0%IfIF%TSi , (F%穴f；-.J*-JKn ,U-d Thr：i：5jCi X*pUTXLfeD83fMX Rjl&J71 61?%1 k，16K11%IC*13*Ce#.47%4%g.4%的.LctigxrcLIL6D18224133?4lQi7.144CfJ.n1%744%275%22S%27%2%30%34%331%1%1%1%4-4%3%3%.cfr*g Go

20、rRFW HirtM73 0113%(TS9bitn11Cd *，*3%3%3%713iHVACAJI pnang 6 m a Mar 20.2020 uMws ocberw spechd. on gt tM stock K on cur Rwkonai Connexion U$t Target price; are on a 12-rwhxw frm一 J9J99。* 一 qm6q8ep二 EP - P W和 68Source: Cdchun %hs Gbtul lmefner Rnedrch. Gjo Huj Securities Research, DaUstremDisclosure

21、AppendixReg ACI, Nicolas Yi, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to th

22、e specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.GS Factor ProfileThe Goldman Sachs Factor Profile provides investment context for a stock by comparing key attributes to the market (i.e. our coverage universe) and its sector peers. The four key attributes depicted are: Growth, Financial

23、Returns, Multiple (e.g. valuation) and Integrated (a composite of Growth, Financial Returns and Multiple). Growth, Financial Returns and Multiple are calculated by using normalized ranks for specific metrics for each stock. The normalized ranks for the metrics are then averaged and converted into pe

24、rcentiles for the relevant attribute. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region, but the standard approach is as follows:Growth is based on a stocks forward-looking sales growth, EBITDA growth and EPS growth (for financial stocks, only EPS and

25、sales growth), with a higher percentile indicating a higher growth company. Financial Returns is based on a stocks forward-looking ROE, ROCE and CROCI (for financial stocks, only ROE), with a higher percentile indicating a company with higher financial returns. Multiple is based on a stocks forward-

26、looking P/E, P/B, price/dividend (P/D), EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF and EV/Debt Adjusted Cash Flow (DACF) (for financial stocks, only P/E, P/B and P/D), with a higher percentile indicating a stock trading at a higher multiple. The Integrated percentile is calculated as the average of the Growth percentile. Fi

27、nancial Returns percentile and (100% - Multiple percentile).Financial Returns and Multiple use the Goldman Sachs analyst forecasts at the fiscal year-end at least three quarters in the future. Growth uses inputs for the fiscal year at least seven quarters in the future compared with the year at leas

28、t three quarters in the future (on a per-share basis for all metrics).For a more detailed description of how we calculate the GS Factor Profile, please contact your GS representative.M&A RankAcross our global coverage, we examine stocks using an M&A framework, considering both qualitative factors an

29、d quantitative factors (which may vary across sectors and regions) to incorporate the potential that certain companies could be acquired. We then assign a M&A rank as a means of scoring companies under our rated coverage from 1 to 3, with 1 representing high (30%-50%) probability of the company beco

30、ming an acquisition target, 2 representing medium (1S%-3O%) probability and 3 representing low (0%-lS%) probability. For companies ranked 1 or 2, in line with our standard departmental guidelines we incorporate an M&A component into our target price. M&A rank of 3 is considered immaterial and theref

31、ore does not factor into our price target, and may or may not be discussed in research.QuantumQuantum is Goldman Sachs proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make compariso

32、ns between companies in different sectors and markets.DisclosuresFinancial Advisory DisclosuresGoldman Sachs and/or one of its affiliates is acting as a financial advisor in connection with an announced strategic matter involving the following company or one of its affiliates： Haier Electronics Grou

33、p Co.r Ltd.Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s)Nicolas Yi: A-share Consumer Durables.A-share Consumer Durables: Gree Electric Appliances Inc., Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection, Haier Electronics Group, Haier Smart Home Co., Hangzhou Robam Appliances, Hisense Home Appliances Group (A),

34、 Hisense Home Appliances Group (H), Joyoung Co., Midea Group, Oppein Home Group, Oppie Lighting Co.r Suofeiya Home Collection Co., Zhejiang Supor Co.Company-specific regulatory disclosuresCompendium report: please see disclosures at s:wwwsr /research/hedae.htmL Disclosures applicable to the companie

35、s included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published researchDistribution of ratings/investment banking relationshipsGoldman Sachs Investment Research global Equity coverage universeRating DistributionInvestment Banking RelationshipsBuyHoldSellBuyHoldSellGlobal44%|40%|16%63%|5

36、7%|51%As of January 1, 2020, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,054 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for t

37、he purposes of the above disclosure required by the FINRA Rules. See Ratings, Coverage groups and related definitions, below. The Investment Banking Relationships chart reflects the percentage of subject companies within each rating category for whom Goldman Sachs has provided investment banking ser

38、vices within the previous twelve months.Price target and rating history chart(s)Compendium report: please see disclosures at s:l. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published researchRegulatory disclosuresDisclosures required by Un

39、ited States laws and regulationsSee company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co manager in a pending transaction； 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relati

40、onships; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs trades or may trade as a principal in debt securities (or In related derivatives) of issuers discussed in this report.The following are additional

41、required disclosures： Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analysts area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as office