全球能源监测-繁荣与衰落2021：追踪全球燃煤电厂开发（英文）.docx

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1、ekHFerGreenlDG climate risk horizonsna tKKTMreiw?妙丽斯SJERWCLUB7* Global .Energy MonitorBoom and Bust 2021TRACKING THE GLOBAL COAL PLANT PIPELINEGlobal Energy Monitor, Sierra Club, CREAZ Climate Risk Horizons, GreenlD, EkosferEXECUTIVE SUMMARYA steep increase in coal plant development in China offset

2、a retreat from coal in the rest of the world in 2020, resulting in the first increase in global coal capacity development since 2015. A record-tying 37.8 gigawatts (GW) of coal plants were retired in 2020, led by the U.S. with 11.3 GW and EU27 with 10.1 GW, but these retirements were eclipsed by Chi

3、nas 38.4 GW of new coal plants. China commissioned 76% of the worlds new coal plants in 2020, up from 64% in 2019, driving a 12.5 GW increase in the global coal fleet in 2020.The proposal and construction boom in China began taking off in March 2020 as provinces used coal projects to stimulate their

4、 economies in the wake of the economic slowdown from the Covid-19 pandemic. Although initiated at the province level, the boom was enabled by loosened restrictions on new coal plant permits and increased lending for coal mega-projects by the central government. Yet in 2021, Chinas Central Environmen

5、t Inspection Group issued an unprecedented report criticizing the National Energy Administration for lax enforcement of the countrys restrictions on coal development, suggesting Chinas coal boom may soon be clamped down. In late 2021, the central government is expected to release its targets for coa

6、l power in the energy sector plan, although the modest targets set for non-fossil energy in the countrys 14th Five Year Plan (2021-2025) suggest coal power generation will continue to grow through 2025.Outside China, several Asian countries announced that they are cancelling or reconsidering new coa

7、l power projects, while Japan and South Korea pledged to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. These policy shifts, along with the Covid-19 pandemic, contributed to a collapse of the coal plant pipeline in south and southeast Asia as the global demand for electricity shrank, national economies contr

8、acted, and coal plant projects struggled to obtain financing. Indonesia, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Vietnam moved to cancel 62.0 GW of planned coal power capacity. The cancellationsBangladeshIn Bangladesh, 7.3 GW of coal plants were cancelled in 2020 while 1.2 GW entered construction and 0.7 G

9、W were commissioned. In November the Bangladesh Energy Ministry finalized plans to cancel all coal plants not currently under construction. Early reports suggested all but four coal plants would be cancelled by government officials, although recent reports suggest just two coal plants will remain in

10、 development. The exact details are expected this summer, when the government outlines its next power sector master plan.The move marks a significant change for the countrys energy plans. Under the 2016 Power System Master Plan “Revisiled： released in November 2018, coal power was projected to grow

11、from 0.5 GW in 2019 to 25.5 GW by 2040, whereas renewable capacity would rise from 0.3 GW to just 7.9 GW over the same period. Yet many of the coal projects struggled to get off theVietnamThe coal fleet in Vietnam has grown faster than in almost any other country, adding two-thirds (11.8 GW) of its

12、current 18.0 GW of operating coal power capacity since 2015. Yet at least 6.0 GW of coal projects in the country have been stalled, according to local environmental group GreenlD, often owing to strong public opposition and difficulty securing financing. The long development times for coal projects

13、have raised concerns that such projects wont be built quickly enough to meet Vietnams growing power demand. The difficulties in implementing its coal projects have led the countrys leaders to reconsider its energy plans.In February 2020, the Politburo of Vietnam signalled a shift away from coal in V

14、ietnams long-term energy strategy, and promoted a strategy for 2030-2045 based on replacing fossil fuel sources with renewables.From 2016-2020 renewable energy increased by 484%, or double the rate which had been planned, while non-hydro renewable energy rose to 26% of the country s total power mix

15、by the end of 2020.A preliminary draft of Vietnams next energy plan for 2021-2030 (PDP 8) proposes 37 GW of coal power by ground, with only five projects totaling 4.7 GW currently under construction, and operating coal power capacity rising to just 1.2 GW as of 2020.Public opposition to building lar

16、ge coal power complexes in the densely-populated country has been fierce. Four people have been killed by police and more than 100 injured protesting the S. Alam coal plant. The economic outlook for coal projects that have advanced is increasingly dim. The decline in power demand from the Covid-19 p

17、andemic means the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) is now paying capacity payments for idled coal plants, leading to significant losses for the BPDB and the need for large government subsidies and power tariff increases. Government officials also cited difficulties in securing imported coal

18、 and shortages of domestic coal as reasons for transitioning away from the fuel.2030, a 51% decline from the 75 GW proposed in Vietnam Power Development Plan 7 (PDP 7), published in 2011, and a 33% decline from the 55 GW planned in the revised PDP 7, published in 2016. If enacted, the draft PDP 8 wi

19、ll cancel seven coal plant projects totaling 9.5 GW and postpone six coal projects totaling 7.6 GW to after 2030. Provincial governments, including the Mekong Delta planning region and Nghe An province, have requested that 11.6 GW of coal power be cancelled or shifted to other fuel sources. New coal

20、 plants will also be subject to stricter efficiency standards. Meanwhile, projects such as the Nam Dinh coal plant are struggling to get construction off the ground before the PDP 8 is finalized.Most coal plants with a license will still need to secure financing, as only 22% (1.9 GW) of the 8.7 GW o

21、f licensed capacity in the country has reached financial close. In the latest sign that financing for coal projects is getting difficult to secure as investors and companies retreat, Japanese trading house Mitsubishi withdrew from Vietnams Vinh Tan 3 coal plant project in February 2021, saying the c

22、oal project is too harmful to the environment.PhilippinesIn October 2020, the Philippine Department of Energy declared a moralorium on new coal plants that were not already in the permitting pipeline. The policy appears to shut the door on any future coal plant proposals, as well as many current pro

23、posalsalthough the exact amount of cancellations will be determined by a set of guidelines that will be released soon. The move is a milestone for the country, which has added half of its 10.3 GW of operating coal plants since 2015.Like Bangladesh and Vietnam, the countrys recent and aggressive purs

24、uit of coal power has led to fierce public opposition, often involving members of the countrys powerful Catholic Church. Many provinces have banned coal plants within their borders. As aIndiaIn 2020, India was second only to China in terms of commissioning and development of coal power. However, the

25、 difference between the two countries is large and growing: while China continues to grow its coal power capacity and proposals, India may well be on the verge of shrinking its coal fleet.In 2020, India commissioned 2.0 GW of coal power. Taking into account 1.3 GW of retirements, Indias coal fleet g

26、rew by only 0.7 GW in 2020the lowest since 2004 (Figure 7, yellow line). Coal powerresult, the amount of coal power in pre-construction declined 33% from 10.3 GW in 2019 to 6.7 GW in 2020, with more plants expected to be cancelled once the moratorium is finalized. In November 2020, an expansion of t

27、he existing Calaca power station was cancelled, with the president of Meralco noting the recent moratorium on coal projectsAny coal plants not cancelled by the DOE policy will likely still need to obtain financing: only ().3 GW of coal power not under construction in the country has reached financia

28、l close. In December, Rizal became the first bank in the Philippines to declare it will no longer finance new coal-fired power missionings in India fell steeply in 2016 and shows no signs of rebounding (dark blue bars).Meanwhile, 2020 saw new records with winning tariff bids for new solar PV plants

29、down to Rs 1.99/kWh and . These represent electricity costs below most operational coal, and well below the level that any new coal power plant, including pithead plants, would be able to provide.The declining cost of clean energy alternatives in India has helped drive down the amount of coal power

30、under development. From 2015 to 2020, coal power capacity proposed for construction in India decreased nearly 90%, from 238.2 GW to 29.3 GW. Coal power under construction has been halved, from 71.4 GW in 2015 to 36.6 GW in 2020 (Figure 8).Low coal power capacity factors and competition from alternat

31、ives have driven the private sector to withdraw almost entirely from new coal plant construction. Almost all the coal plants under active construction are public sector units, owned by state or federal government entities. Of the 36.6 GW under construction in 2020, at least 14.1 GW were in relativel

32、y early stages一completing these projects will risk an estimated 92,000 croccs (US$12.6 billion) of public money. This represents a significant use of publicSouth KoreaIn December the South Korean government s 9th Basic Plan for Electricity (BPE) called for the closure of 20 coal plants by 2034, in a

33、ddition to the ten coal plants scheduled for closure in the 8th BPE. Under the 9th BPE, coal capacity would be cut from the current 35.6% (36.4 GW) of total capacity to 15.1% in 2034 (18.8 GW). According to Greenpeace Korea, the 9th BPE includes only old power plants that have reached the end of the

34、ir 3()-year life, meaning that the Korean government is effectively guaranteeing the lifespan of coal-fired power plants for 30 years. The 9th BPE also does not call for the closure of two units at the Boryeong power station and two units at the Donghae finance on electricity projects that will be u

35、ncompetitive with newer, cleaner sources.In 2020 electricity generation in India from coal power dropped for the second consecutive year, leading to suggestions that coal power generation in the country might be on the decline. A sharp economic recovery in 2021 could change that, but it seems clear

36、that the peak in coal power capacity and generation is certainly close, if not already past. The National Electricity Plan identified 48 GW of coal for retirement by 2027, and recent analyses have suggested that there are significant financial benefits to retiring old coal plants and repurposing pla

37、nts for renewables, battery storage, and grid stability.Figure 8: Coal-fired power capacity under development in India Pre-construction = blue line, Construction = red linepower station that will be 30 years old in 2023 and 2029, respectively.Piesident Moon Jae-in has pledged to achieve carbon neutr

38、ality by 2050, but Koreas plans to develop additional domestic capacity undermines this pledge. Coal plants currently under construction would add 7.3 GW of capacity, while 24 of the 3() coal plants scheduled for closure by 2034 are currently planned to be converted to run on gas instead of being sh

39、ut down or replaced by renewables.South Korea also continues to be a leading funder of coal plant development in other countries. In 2020Korean Electric Power Company (KEPCO) purchased a 15% share in the 2.0 GW Jawa-9 and Jawa-1() power stations, and purchased a 40% share in Vietnams 1.2 GW Vung Ang

40、-2 power station. The Export-Import (Ex-Im) Bank of Korea plans to provide 8()() billion won (US$700Paris climate goals remain elusiveIn 2018, following the release of the【PCC 1.5 Degree Special Report, Global Energy Monitor and Greenpeace developed coal phase-out pathways consistent with the projec

41、ted coal-fired generation in the IPCC scenarios for holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, in line with the UN Paris climate agreement.Two and a half years later, both OECD countries and non-OECD countries, with the exception of China, have made modest progress in aligning their plans for co

42、al power retirement and newbuild with the 1.5 degree pathways. Figure 9 looks at the expected coal power capacity in these regions based on announced national phase-outs and business-as-usual retirements of old plants, as well as projects under construction and planned capacity coming online over th

43、e next 1() years.2 Although there has been modestmillion) in financing to Vung Ang 2, while the Ex-Im Bank, the Korea Trade Insurance Corporation, and the Korea Development Bank plan to provide loans and guarantees of 1.7 trillio。won (US 1.5 billion).progress outside China, no region is close to mee

44、ting the required reductions for the 1.5 degree pathway (dotted line).At the end of 2018 (purple line in middle panel), OECDs coal power capacity stood at 670 GW, and was expected to fall to 523 GW by 2030. By the end of 2020 (blue line), national and operator phase-out decisions in OECD countries h

45、ave seen projected coal capacity in 2030 fall by 74 GW, to 449 GW. Although a marked reduction, the 1.5 degree pathway requires a complete coal power phase-out in OECD countries by this date. The OECD countries with the largest projected coal power capacity in 2030 are the U.S., Turkey, Japan, South

46、 Korea, Poland, Germany, and Australia. Out of these, Turkey and Japan are still planning a sizable coal power expansion.Figure 9: Historic and projected coal power capacity by region (1990-2050) and the gap to 1.5 degrees (gigawatts)Panels: China = left, OECD = middle, Non-OECD = right. Lines: Hist

47、oric capacity = gray line, 1.5C target = dotted line, Total capacity expected by year = colored lines (2017 = red, 2018 = purple, 2019 = yellow, 2020 = blue)2. We projected the development of coal-fired capacity using the versions of Global Coal Plant Tracker data at the end of each year (2017-2020)

48、. The projections assume that all coal power projects in active development are realized, and retirement of plants that dont have an announced retirement date and are not covered by a national phase-out follows the practice in each region to date, based on average age of coal power plants at retirem

49、ent, or the 90th percentile of the age of operating plants, whichever is greater. For new projects without an announced commissioning date, we spread commissioning over the next 10 years, differentiating by the current status of the project. The projections incorporate national phase-out decisions included in the Europe Beyond Coal Coal ExitTrackee as well as those by Powering Past Coal Alliance member。Colombia joined the OECD after 2018 and i