Q2全球经济展望.docx
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1、The INTELLIGENCEEconomist unitThe world leader in global business intelligenceThe Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years experience in helping businesses
2、, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed.Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpret
3、er and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact.EIU subscription servicesThe world/s leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. We specialise in: Country A
4、nalysis: Access to regular, detailed country-specific economic and political forecasts, as well as assessments of the business and regulatory environments in different markets. Risk Analysis: Our risk services identify actual and potential threats around the world and help our clients understand the
5、 implications for their organisations. Industry Analysis: Five year forecasts, analysis of key themes and news analysis for six key industries in 60 major economies. These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis of industry trends.EIU ConsultingEIU Consulting is a bespoke servic
6、e designed to provide solutions specific to our customers needs. We specialise in these key sectors: Healthcare: Together with our two specialised consultancies, Bazian and Clearstate, The EIU helps healthcare organisations build and maintain successful and sustainable businesses across the healthca
7、re ecosystem. Find out more at: eiu / healthcarePublic Policy: Trusted by the sectors most influential stakeholders, our global public policy practice provides evidencebased research for policy-makers and stakeholders seeking clear and measurable outcomes. Find out more at: eiu / publicpolicyThe Eco
8、nomist Corporate NetworkThe Economist Corporate Network (ECN) is The Economist Group/s advisory service for organisational leaders seeking to better understand the economic and business environments of global markets. Delivering independent, thought-provoking content, ECN provides clients with the k
9、nowledge, insight, and interaction that support better-informed strategies and decisions.The Network is part of The Economist Intelligence Unit and is led by experts with in-depth understanding of the geographies and markets they oversee. The Networks membership-based operations cover Asia-Pacific,
10、the Middle East, and Africa. Through a distinctive blend of interactive conferences, specially designed events, C-suite discussions, member briefings, and high-calibre research, The Economist Corporate Network delivers a range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well as industr
11、y-focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends.Coronavirus sinks global growth prospects for first half of 2020The Economist Intelligence Unit provides world-leading political and economic analysis and forecasts for 197 countries. Our reports examine and explain the important politi
12、cal and economic trends and developments in each country, providing investors and businesses with key takeaways to understand the current situation and the likely future political and economic developments.Alongside our comprehensive annual data, we provide quarterly forecasts for 50 countries cover
13、ing 85% of global output. These forecasts, built using our proprietary econometric models, address the growing need for high-frequency data to help set budgets, investments and economic projections.The ElUs quarterly forecasts include up to 51 headline series for G20 countries, the BRICS grouping (c
14、omprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), as well as key emerging markets. These forecasts are updated continuously and projected out two years, or eight quarters. Our quarterlyfrequency forecasts make use of a pioneering Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) technique developed by le
15、ading econometricians over the past decade. Such models are believed to have strong forecasting properties, particularly in the short run, and to capture cross-quarter and cross-variable dynamics effectively.Real GDP growth rate (%), quarter on quarterSource: The Economist Intelligence Unit.BRICS201
16、9 Q42020 QI2020 Q2Brazil0.5-1.0-11.0China1.4-10.99.2India1.25.0-9.3Russia0.4-0.1-10.5South Africa-0.3-3.0-7.7G7Canada0.1-0.3-4.5France0.8-2.0-10.0Germany0.0-3.0-10.0Italy-0.3-5.0-10.0Japan-1.8-0.5-0.4UK0.0-1.0-10.0USA0.5-1.3-5.9Prior to the coronavirus outbreak we expected global real GDP growth to
17、be lacklustre this year, at 2.3% (at market exchange rates). The coronavirus pandemic is a game changer, and we now expect global output to contract by 2.5% this yearthe lowest rate since the global financial crisis. The negative effect on growth will come via both demand and supply channels. On the
18、 one hand, quarantine measures, illness, and negative consumer and business sentiment will suppress demand. At the same time, the closure of some factories and disruption to supply chains will create supply bottlenecks. The economic shock will be mostly concentrated in the first half of this year, w
19、ith regional variations that follow the gradual spread of the pandemic across the globe.We expect a modest rebound in global output in the second half of 2020, provided that the spread of coronavirus is largely contained globally and no second orthird waves of the pandemic occur. However, the impact
20、 on confidence and demand will be long lasting. A rise in uncertainty will lead to increased precautionary savings among households and delayed business investment. Some consumers may also continue to self-quarantine after governments lift lockdowns for fear of contracting the coronavirus, which wil
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