航空的未来场景.docx

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1、 AttOClOtlbhOfEuropean Research Estatehments in Aeitrnmitics EREA *PPP A FUTURE OF AVIATIONJThe scenariosSetting the scene.on Civil AviationAviation as we know it, with airports and passenger flights, is a relatively young concept. Since its beginnings around a cen- tury ago, civil aviation has been

2、 steadily making the world smaller, more connected and accessible to its citizens. Currently, there is no other way of travelling quickly and effi- ciently over long distances around the world. Aviation is also by far the safest and most secure means of travel. Given the estimated worldwide air traf

3、fic in 2019 of about 39,000,000 flights, the accident rate is one fatal accident per almost two million flights Aviation as we know it, with airports and passenger flights, is a relatively young concept. Since its beginnings around a cen- tury ago, civil aviation has been steadily making the world s

4、maller, more connected and accessible to its citizens. Currently, there is no other way of travelling quickly and effi- ciently over long distances around the world. Aviation is also by far the safest and most secure means of travel. Given the estimated worldwide air traffic in 2019 of about 39,000,

5、000 flights, the accident rate is one fatal accident per almost two million flights .Aviation is a strategically important industry to individual sovereign States, but it cannot fulfil its potential without a seamless, global, world network. A specialised United Nations agency, the International Civ

6、il Aviation Organization (ICAO) works with its 193 member states to manage the governance and administration of the global civil air transport system. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is the glob- al trade association for the worlds airlines. ICAO and IATA promote interoperability

7、and standardisation to support a safe, efficient, secure, economically sustainable and environmentally responsible civil aviation sector. In Europe, the European Commission (EC), the European Aviation SafetyAgency (EASA) and EUROCONTROL, all have their roles in the operation of the European aviation

8、 single market, regulatory and technical harmonisation, compliance, and research and innovation and external relations.Aviations contribution to the global economy is undisputed. ICAO estimates Aviation benefits report, Report of the Industry High Level Group, 2019 that in 2018, the direct contribut

9、ion of aviation to the global economy supported 10.2 million jobs and contributed $704 billion to gross domestic product (GDP). If indirect, induced and catalytic effects are included these figures increase to 65.5 million jobs and $2.7 trillion. Within Europe An aviation strategy for Europe, Commun

10、ication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European, the aviation sector directly employs between 1.4 and 2.0 million people and contributes 110 billion to the European Unions gross domestic product (GDP). When multiplier effects are included these figures rise to 4.8 t

11、o 5.5 million jobs and 510 billion respectively.Aviation also makes a significant contribution to social well-being. It enables citizens mobility, connecting remote and peripheral regions as well as ensuring that these regions are accessible for the delivery of essential supplies, such as food and h

12、ealth care, especially in times of crisis. It also facili- tates cultural links between communities distributed across the world, in the event of emigration or diaspora. Travel by air2,7 trillionWORLDEUROPEComparison of aviation jobs and contribution to GDP for Europe and worldwideis often essential

13、 for visiting distant friends and relatives, enabling a flexible and mobile workforce. Aviation is one of the critical enablers of tourism, allowing people to make best use of their leisure time and broadening experience and aware- ness of other cultures.In its beginnings and reflecting its strategi

14、c importance, civil aviation was heavily State controlled and governed by trea- ty- like agreements between States on a bilateral basis, under the global ICAO umbrella. From the early 1990s, the sector has been gradually evolving from State-controlled provider perspective to a more consumer-focused

15、industry. This evolution started initially through the creation of competitive internal aviation markets within the US and Europe; the relaxation of bilateral agreements followed, with some constraints remaining, to govern the travel between some countries or blocs. This progressive liberalisation o

16、f the industry is not yet complete on a global scale and is accompanied by continued strict regulation to ensure safety, security and global interoperability.Liberalisation, achieved in part through the application of competition law, has resulted in the replacement of restric- tive bilateral air se

17、rvices agreements with open skies agree- merits, and the creation of multilateral common aviation areas, such as the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA). Competition on routes has emerged along with new business models, such as low cost carriers. This has reduced prices - the unit price of air trav

18、el has reduced by around 80% since 1950 - and increased access to air travel for the world popu- lation. What started as a luxury commodity for the rich has become highly accessible in both the developed and develop- ing worlds. For example, World Bank data7 shows that global- ly in 1975 there were

19、approximately 432 million air trips with a world population of approximately 4.1 billion. In 2018, there were approximately 4.2 billion air trips with a population ofapproximately 7.7 billion.As people become more affluent, their desire to fly also increases. All other things being equal, the chart

20、in Figure 2 shows that, following even small increases in wealth in a large population (indicated by bubble size), developing countries will lead to large increases in demand for air travel. It is also in these developing countries, such as India and China, that wealth is increasing the fastest, sig

21、nalling a potential expo- nential growth of demand for air travel.Traditionally therefore, aviation is a growth industry, albeit with some glitches caused by disruptive events, such as economic crises and the terrorist attack on 9/11. The growth to 2019 is shown in Figure 3. This situation, however,

22、 has been challenged by environmental groups and dramatically changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. on Current ChallengesAs would be expected in such competitive growth industry, there are direct challenges on capacity, efficiency, quality of service and resilience. As the sector strives to meet inc

23、reasing demand, capacity constraints start to bite. When looking at airspace and airports, this increases congestion and delays, especially at key nodes in the network, resulting in100.00 0.010.01sdE 上行-enuux/NorwaySwitzerland0102030809010040506070GDP per capita (000s US$)Figure 1: Correlation betwe

24、en increase in GDP and increase in annual air trips (Source: Taylor Airey analysis, using data from Airports Council International (ACI), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Bank, 2019)7 . world bank. org/indicator/lS.AIR. PSGRpoor punctuality and increased

25、costs to airlines and passengers alike. Strains on the aeronautical manufacturing indus- try and supply chain have resulted following the high produc- tion rates set up by aircraft OEMs89. As the system starts to operate near to its capacity, the impact of even small disruptions is amplified and res

26、ilience - the ability to mitigate and recover from disruption - becomes compromised. Air trans- port is a highly interconnected network, so disruptions can propagate quickly through the system. Much research has been and continues to be performed to improve the aviations performance, resilience and

27、flexibility to traffic fluctuations and disruptions.Although aviation makes positive contributions to the econo- my and social well-being, the awareness about the aviations negative impact on the environment, principally on climate change, local air quality and noise, has been steadily rising in the

28、 last years. This awareness generated from political activities, through the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2019-2038, Airbus Global Market Forecast 2019-2038 . un. org/goals (SDG) and, in Europe, through increasing awareness that led to the European Gr

29、een Deal The European Green Deal, Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and 后 ibid.The key components of the Green Deal (Figure 4) for aviation include:- the development of a circular economy action plan;legislation on batteries, taking into

30、 account the circular economy;- development of a strategy for sustainable and smart mobility;options to boost the production and supply of sustains- ble alternative fuels.Different European countries are developing different responses to the overarching European goal. Different industries are also r

31、eacting at different speeds to established policies and regulations.Popular engagement to such political agendas has become apparent through movements such as Fridays for Future activities and the Flygskam (flight shaming in Swedish) and Global Climate Strike movement.一SIR9.000 8.0007.000 y6.000 v5.

32、000 .4.0003.000 7Fre-gzTonne-Kdomsnes-bnuon 一2.000 -Oil crisis/Figure 3: Growth of aviation industry until 2018 (source: ICAO)Air traffic evolution19World RecessionSARS9/11 terronst attackAsian crisisGulf WarIran-Iraq War/Mobilising researchand fostering innovationTransforming the EU*s economy for a

33、 sustainable futureIncreasing the EU Climateambition for 2030 and 2050A zero pollution ambitionfor a toxic-free environmentSupplying clean, affordableand secure energyMobilising industryfor a clean and circular economyBuilding and renovating in anenergy and resource efficient wayLeave no one behind

34、(Just Transition)Preserving and rebtoriny ecosystems and biodiversityAccelerating the shift to sustainable and smart mobilityFrom Tarm to Fork*： a fair, healthy and environmentally fripndly food systpmTheEuropeanGreenDealFinancing the transitionA European Climate PactThe EU as a global leaderFigure

35、4: The European Green Deal12The aviation industry responded promptly to the climate change challenge. In terms of climate impact, aviation currently emits Source: EASAThe aviation industry responded promptly to the climate change challenge. In terms of climate impact, aviation currently emits Source

36、: EASA 2 to 3% of the worlds CO2 generated by human activities. In addition to CO2, there is an impact on climate from its non-CO2 emissions, such as NOx, water vapour, and particulates. Aviation can also impact global warming through contrails, which can have both warming and cooling effects, altho

37、ugh the overall global mean response is considered to be warming. CO2 effects are reasonably well understood but non- CO2 effects have not been extensively researched to the same degree, resulting in large uncertainty about their impact on climate. Through the Clean Aviation Partnership An ambitious

38、 vision for clean aviation, January 2020 (Figure 5), the European aeronautics sector aims to work towards cli- mate neutral aviation by 2050, building on the work of the Clean Sky and Clean Sky 2 programs.Around airports, degradations in local air quality and noise impact negatively on local communi

39、ties. Flightpath 205016 has set goals for 2050 related to these factors:- a 75% reduction in CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre;a 90% reduction in NO emissions;- a 65% reduction in the perceived noise emission of flying aircraft;aircraft movements to be emission-free when taxiing.Within the ambit

40、ion of smart and sustainable mobility, a topic that is receiving considerable attention from research organ- isations and industry, is the development and use of drones for many purposes, including professional and leisure. There is also much work being performed to develop urban air mobility (UAM)

41、solutions. Collectively drones and UAM are becoming known as advanced air mobility (AAM).Other widely discussed topics are automation, robotics and big data. Automation and virtual and augmented reality technologies are already being deployed in manufacturing plants, maintenance hangars and air traf

42、fic control towers and pres-2020 Horizon Europe203020402050Low carbonAviationClimate-neutralaviation100% fossil fuelbased aviationShort/medium range克CommutershelicoptersUltra-efficient aircraft +Increased use of sustainable alternative fuelsSmall electric aircraft Hybrid regional and short range air

43、craft New short distance mobilityGreen aircraft operationsand infrastructuresGreen aircraft regulationsHyper-efficient aircraftFully decarbonised energy sources, i.e. alternative zero (net) emissions fuels/energy carriers e.g. Uquid H2 Power to Uquid fuelsUltra-high density batteries and/or fuel cel

44、lsClimate-neutral aircraftoperations and infrastructuresClimate-neutral aircraftregulationsFigure 5: Clean Aviation Partnership An ambitious vision for clean aviation, January 2020 s:ent many more opportunities within the sector alongside challenges of safety assurance, certification and human facto

45、rs.All those topics and many more have been part of numerous research activities aimed at contributing to the Flightpath 2050 goals, performed via EU research programs, such as Horizon2020 and the upcoming Horizon Europe, fostering collaboration between research institutes, academia and industrial p

46、artners. Despite this active and fruitful collabora- tion, the outcomes of innovation programsand the deployment of disruptive technologies and business models present a challenge to the conventional aviation industry and system. Implementation has so far been limited.on COVID-19Aviations seemingly

47、unlimited growth came to a sudden stop at the beginning of 2020. At the time of writing, October 2020, it is clear that the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in possibly the largest challenge that the aviation sector has ever faced.Immediate effects included:- the near closure of passenger air transpor

48、t as various measures, including border and travel restrictions, were put in place to contain the virus;the massive contracting impact on world economies, resulting in companies being (near-) bankrupt, staff being furloughed or made redundant;- aircraft fleets being reduced in size with, mainly, old aircraft being retired and cancellation of aircraft orders, with knock-on effects up the supply chain.Acknowledging the strategic importance of air transport, many governme