管理会计：Forecasting unit Test and Answer.docx

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1、一、单项选择题Which of the following are correct with regard to regression analysis?(i) In regression analysis the n stands for the number of pairs of data.(ii) Zx2 is not the same calculation as (Zx)2(iii) Zxy is calculated by multiplying the total value of x and the total value of yA.(ii) and (iii) onlyB

2、.(i), (ii) and (iii)C.(i) and (ii) onlyD.(i) and (iii) only2 Regression analysis is being used to find the line of best fit (y = a + bx) from eleven pairs of data.The calculations have produced the following information:” =440, ly = 330, 2(x*x) = 17,986, 2(y*y) = 10,366 and Zxy = 13,467What is the v

3、alue of a in the equation for the line of best fit (to 2 decimal places)?3、Brisbane Limited has recorded the following sales information for the past six months:Sales revenue ($000)302725403238Month Advertising expenditure ($?000)11.52231.754352.562.75The following has also been calculated:1(Adverti

4、sing expenditure) = $13,5002(Sales revenue) = $192,000(Advertising expenditure x Sales revenue) = $447,250,000“Sales revenue x Sales revenue ) = $6,322,000,000(Advertising expenditure2) = $32,125,000What is the value of b, i.e. the gradient of the regression line?4The regression equation Y=3+2x has

5、been calculated from 6 pairs of values, with x range from 1 to 10. The correlation coefficient is 0.8. It is estimated that y=43 when x=20.Which of the following are true?(i)The estimate is not reliable because x is outside the range of the data(ii)The estimate is not reliable because the correlatio

6、n is low(iii)The estimate is reliableThe estimate is not reliable because the sample is smallA.(ii) and (iv) onlyB.(i) and (iii) onlyC.(i) and (ii) onlyD.(i) and (iv) only5、The correlation coefficient (r) for measuring the connection between two variables (x and y) has been calculated as 0.6.How muc

7、h of the variation in the dependent variable (y) is explained by the variation in the independent variable (x)?A.60%B.40%C.36%D.64%6、Over an 18-month period, sales have been found to have an underlying linear trend of y = 7.112 +3.949x, where y is the number of items sold and x represents the month.

8、 Monthly deviations from trend have been calculated and month 19 is expected to be 1.12 times the trend value. What is the forecast number of items to be sold in month 19?A.91B.93C.92D.947、 Based on the last 15 periods the underlying trend of sales is y = 345.12 - 1.35x. If the 16th period has a sea

9、sonal factor of -23.62, assuming an additive forecasting model, what is the forecast for that period, in whole units?A. 324325C.301D.3008、What is the purpose of seasonally adjusting the values in a time series?A .To ensure that seasonal components total zeroB.To obtain an instant estimate of the tre

10、ndC.To obtain an instant estimate of the degree of seasonal variationD.To take the first step in a time series analysis of the data9、Which of the following are necessary if forecasts obtained from a time series analysis are to be reliable?(i) The trend must not be increasing or decreasing(ii) The tr

11、end must continue as in the past(iii) Extrapolation must not be used(iv) The same pattern of seasonal variation must continue as in the pastA. and (iii) onlyB.(ii) and (iv) onlyC.(i) onlyD.(i) and (ii) only10、Using an additive time series model, the quarterly trend (Y) is given by Y = 65 + 7t, where

12、 t is the quarter (starting with t = 1 in the first quarter of 20X5). If the seasonal component in the fourth quarter is -30, what is the forecast for the actual value for the fourth quarter of 20X6, to the nearest whole number?A.63B.85C.91D.54611 The trend for monthly sales ($Y) is related to the m

13、onth (t) by the equation Y = 1,500 - 3t where t = 1 in the first month of 20X8. What are the forecast sales (to the nearest dollar) for the first month of 20X9 if the seasonal component for that month is 0.92 using a multiplicative model?A.$l,344B.$l,462C.$l,377D.$17,90412 Four years ago material X

14、cost $5 per kg and the price index most appropriate to the cost of material X stood at 15O.The same index now stands at 430. What is the best estimate of the current cost of material X per kg?A.$1.74B.$21.50C.$9.33D.$14,3313 The following data relates to questions 13 and 14. The wholesale price inde

15、x is made up from the prices of three items. More information is as follows.Item Quantity Price per unit Quantity Price per unit20X020X020X220X2000 units$000 units$P603804Q306405R405208Calculate Laspeyre price index in 20X2, if 20X0 is taken as the base year.D. 120.414 Calculate Paasche price index

16、in 20X2, if 20X0 is taken as the base year.15 The following data represents a time series:X 36 Y 41343842A series of three point moving averages produced from this data has given the first two values as 38 and 39. What are the values of (X, Y) in the original time series?A. (38, 39)B.(40, 38)B. (39, 38)D.(38, 40)