2021年全球支付报告.docx

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1、202I年全球支付报告随着电子商务的兴起,数字钱包蓬勃发展2020年全球电子商务增长加速,交易额达到4.6万亿美元, 比2019年增长了 !9%2020年数字钱包占电子商务交易量的44.5%,比2019年增 长6.5%中国消费者在数字钱包方面领先,占电子商务交 易量的72.1%。美国数字/移动钱包普及率落后于全球平均水 平,数字钱包占仅电子商务交易的29.8%,比2019年增长了 23.7%预计到2024年,数字钱包将占全球电子商务支付量的 51.7%,信用卡（20.8%）和借记卡（12%）的份额略有下降。在POS萎缩之际,现金仓促撤退销售点最直接地感受到新冠的影响,2020年全球交易量比 2

2、019年下降4.4%,预计全球经济复苏将发生在18-24个月 内。2022全球交易量增长率将达到6.5%,然后在2023年和 2024年分别增长3.3%和3.5%。新冠大流行使现金的减少速度加快了三年多,超过了 2020 年的预测。2020年,现金占全球销售点交易量的20.5%,比 2019 年减少了 32.1%移动钱包填补了现金的空缺,比2019年增长!9.5%,占2020 年销售点交易的25.7%在欧洲、拉丁美洲和北美,信用卡（22.4%）和借记卡（22.3%） 占销售点支付的大部分,而在亚太地区和中东和非洲的使用 相对较少。展望2024年,预计现金使用量将比2020年再减少38%,仅 占

3、全球销售点交易量的12.7%预计到2024年,移动钱包将比2020年再增加30%,占全球销售点交易量的33.4%worldpayfrom FIS 厂INTRODUCTIONGLOBAL PAYMENT TRENDS KEY INSIGHTSMARKET GUIDES METHODOLOGY PAYMENT TERMS2020 changed our world and how we interact within it more than any other yc recent history. For the first time, no matter where we were, we e

4、xperienced s( together. Weve experienced emotional lows and hoped for our future. Weve to alter our daily habits and adjust future engagements. Weve learned about technology and services that help us deal with being at home more often.Were connected by more than just commerce. Were connected by a sh

5、ared experience. That has inevitably altered our connections to commerce.As businesses began to reopen and we learned how to navigate the world amidst the pandemic, it became clear that rebuilding economies was essential. Doing it the right way will allow for smarter experiences and smarter interact

6、ions.Thats the foundation of The 2021 Global Payments Report by Woridpay from FIS.Well explore how 2020 catapulted payments years ahead of where they were projected to be and well dive into what commerce will look like post pandemic. Beyond just payments, well highlight the newest modem currency and

7、 considerations for entering different markets. Youll get the smarter insights you need to build a true omnichannel experience.Weve seen the rapid change that can occur in a digital world. Payment options are frequently evolving and competition over payment market share continues to increase. Well h

8、elp you create smarter customer experiences by helping you understand which payment methods are popular and which new ones are on the rise.Rebuilding our economies and businesses lies with all of us. It starts with understanding where change occurred and applying those insights to create the smarter

9、 checkout experiences consumers have come to expect. While there wasnt a guidebook for navigating a pandemic, we can give you a solid, smarter payments roadmap to the future.Let,s start by rebuilding businesses and rethinking smarter about commerce.Consumer payment preferences vary considerably arou

10、nd the world, reflecting an infinite diversity of historical, technical, cultural, economic and regulatory factors. Aitemative payment methods like digital wallets and bank transfers are now in the mainstream, if not in the outright majority, and legacy methods like credit cards and cash continue to

11、 decline.Widespread disruptions created a profound shift in commerce and payments, accelerating the adoption of digital wallets in e-commerce while hastening the decline of cash at the point of sale.Digital wallets thrive as e-commerce surgesE-commerce exploded in 2020 to post the highest growth rat

12、e in five years as home-bound consumers sought alternatives to shuttered brick-and- mortar stores. Global e-commerce growth accelerated in 2020 despite recessionary headwinds, posting U.S.$4.6 trillion in transactions, a 19%increase from 201 penetration by all 8% in 2019 to 1gDigital wallets rer e-c

13、ommerce cons volume in 2020, u digital wallets, ac -where digital/m wallets grew to re over 2019 levels.Digital wallet gain cards, bank transi digital wallets to ( 2024 with slight d(to 12%). By 2024, digital wallets, credit and debit cards will account for 84.5% of e-commerce spend. Buy now, pay la

14、ter (BNPL) continues to earn market share, expecting to double from 2.1% in 2020 to 4.2% by 2024.One new component of our 2020 e-commerce analysis is direct debit Direct debit is a form of bank transfer where a retailer withdraws funds directly from a consumers bank account on a specified date after

15、 the purchase. Most popular in Europe where it earned 4% of share, direct debit was used for 1.2% of global e-commerce payments in 2020.Cash bids a hasty retreat amid POS contractionPoint-of-sale felt the impact of COVID-19 most directly, with 2020 global transaction volume falling 4.4% from 2019. P

16、rojections see recovery from the global recession transaction volumes taking 18-24 months, returning to 6.5% global growth rates in 2022, and then 3.3% growth in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024.Disruptions in payment types were as equally dramatic as the reductions in total volume. COVID-19 is accelerating th

17、e pace of cashs decline faster than even the most bullish projections. The pandemic accelerated the decline of cash by over three years, exceeding in 2020 our previous projection for 2023. Cash was used for 20.5% of global POS volume in 2020, a 32.1% reduction from 2019.Cash transaction values fell

18、steeply around the world in 2020: by 21.9% in North America, 33.6% in Europe, 34.7% in Latin America and 36.6% in APAC. Cash has fallen to historically low usage around the world, representing only 5.4% of POS transaction volume in Canada, 4.5% in Norway, 11.9% in the U.S. and less than 10% in marke

19、ts as diverse as Australia, Hong Kong and Sweden.Mobile wallets gained much of cashs share loss at the point of sale, rising 19.5% over 2019 to represent 25.7% of 2020 POS transactions. The pandemic ushered in a wave of interest in contactless payment methods, accelerating already growing interest i

20、n mobile wallets.Credit cards (22.4%) and debit cards (22.3%) continue to eam majority shares of POS payments in Europe, Latin America and North America, while seeing comparatively less use in APAC and MEA.A new category in our POS 2020 analysis is POS financing, which represents a mix of legacy and

21、 emerging payments that extend consumer credit at the point of sale. This indudes credit offered by retailers, financial institutions, marketplaces and BN PL services. The spectrum of POS financing is broadening consumer payment choices while boosting merchant conversions. POS financing represents 3

22、.5% of global 2020 POS share, projected to maintain fairly steady share at 3.3% in 2024.Looking ahead to 2024, we expect the trend away from cash to continue as consumers cement their preferences of more convenient, contactless payment methods at the point of sale. While accelerating cashs decline,

23、we do not expect a significant cash bounce-back - regardless of COVID- 19s ultimate trajectory. We project cash will decline an additional 38% from 2020 to represent just 12.7% of global POS volume by 2024.The loss ofcash will be absorbed by mobile wallets with expectations they will rise an additio

24、nal 30% from 2020 to account for 33.4% of global POS spend by 2024. Mobile wallets will eam shares in the mid-teens across all global regions by 2024, led by the outlier of APAC where mobile wallets will achieve majority status, earning 47.9% of POS share by 2024. Though shifting within regions, car

25、d shares will hold steady through 2024 at roughly 50% of global POS transaction values.Global e-com payment methods2020202CDigital/Mobile Wallet44.5%51.7%Credit Card22.8%20.8% Debit Card12.3% ,12.0% Bank Transfer7.7% 5.3% Cash on Delivery3.3% 1.7% Charge & Deferred Debit Card3.3%1.6% 11Buy Now Pay L

26、ater2.1% 14.2% Direct Debit1.2% 11.0% 1Pre-Paid Card1.1% 10.5% 1PostPay0.9% 10.5% 1PrePay0.4% 10.2% 1Other0.4% 10.4% 1Global POS payment methodsDigital/Mobile Wallet Credit CardDebit CardCashPOS Financing Pre-Paid CardCharge Card202025.7%22.4%22.3%20.5%3.5% 3.4% I2.2% I2024*33.4%22.8%22.4% BMiU.7% 3

27、.3% 3.2% I2.3% IEuropean paymenl highest in at least c eommerce paymThough the digita great diversity. T and high growth ( moderate growth penetration but h penetration, lowe European e-comn from a low of 7.4,commerce, turop between 2016 anc survey will sustaiiLockdowns and operating restrictions on

28、 physical businesses helped e-commerce volumes surge. Face-to-face businesses bore the heaviest economic burdens, striving to survive and thrive even in the face of recessionary headwinds and evolving regulations.Digital wallets are now the leading payment method in the five largest European e-comme

29、rce markets： France, Germany, Russia, Spain and the U.K.Debit and credit cards both capture nearly 19% of payments for e-commerce in Europe, contending for a second-place ranking of European payment preferences. Debit cards are the e-com payment method of choice in Belgium, Denmark and Ireland, whil

30、e credit cards reign in countries as diverse as Norway and Turkey. BNPL is the leading e-com payment method in Sweden, helping boost the 7.4% share of regional transaction value for buy now, pay later.Bank transfers represent a robust 13% of regional transactions, sharing strong leadership positions

31、 in The Netherlands and Finland. The popularity of bank transfer among European consumers goes beyond even the strong direct share of payments, as digital wallets linked to bank accounts continue to gain share. An emerging variant on bank transfers, direct debit is broken out capturing 4% of Europea

32、n e-commerce payments, mainly driven by Germany.Looking ahead through 2024, we see a market that continues to reflect Europes diversity, with digital wallets, credit and debit cards, bank transfers and BNPL all earning double-digital share of e-com payments. Digital wallets and BNPL will gain additi

33、onal share, with digital wallets rising 13.3% to maintain the category lead, approaching 30% by 2024.The popularity of BNPL will make the largest gains, nearly doubling its share by 2024 to account for 13.6% of e-com spend. Advances by digital wallets and BNPL options will come at the expense of mor

34、e traditional payment methods, with charge cards, cash on delivery and pre paid services seeing steady declines through 2024.Cash rapidly declines amid POS contractionAs was the case globally, European point-of-sale merchants felt the impact of COVID-19s economic challenges most directly. 2020 POS t

35、ransaction volume fell 10.2% across the region to U.S.S6.76 trillion.Europea online ui and ere。 equally iModest annual growth of 4.2% is forecast for POS transaction volume through 2024. European POS volumes are expected to expand sufficiently to regain 2019 levels during 2022.attributable to the pa

36、ndemic, our forecasts see additional retreats independent of COVID-Ws path. Europe will see the use of cash dedming 9.9% annually through 2024, when it will represent just 15.4% of POS transaction volume. By 2024, we project cash will capture 15.4% of POSEurope e-com payment methods2020202TDigital/M

37、obile Wallet26.4%29.9%Credit Card18.9% 18.8%19.0%Debit Card16.1% Bank Transfer13.0% 11.1% ,Buy Now Pay Later7.4% 13.6% Charge & Deferred Debit Card4.6%2.2%Direct Debit4.0% 13.7% 1Cash on Delivery3.3% 11.5% 1Other1.2% 11.1% 1Pre-Paid Card1.2% 11.0% 1PrePay1.1% 10.7% 1PostPay0.1% 10.1% 1Europe POS pay

38、ment methodsDebit CardCashCredit CardDigital/MobiIe WalletCharge Card POS Financing Pre-Paid Card202041.0%27.4%11.5% 7.2% 6.0% 4.3% I2.6% I2024*43.9% 115.4%12.5% 13.9% 6.6% 4.3% 3.5% Ifrom cash at historic rates.projected for the and Singapore.Digital wallets con digital wallets exc( slightly from 5

39、8.4屮 use accounting for digital wallets haw India (39.7%) and I (24.1%), HongKoniGrowth in Chinas( projected annual exceed U.S. $3.1 tr growth rates throe low of 7.5% in Jap:Credit cards maintained a strong second place position with 19.1% of e-com payments, despite falling slightly from 20.1% in 20

40、19. They remain the leading payment method in half of the APAC countries included in our report, including dominant positions in Japan (58.2%), South Korea (57.4%) and Singapore (45.3%). Debit card use in APAC jumped 38.1% in 2020, rising from 4.2% in 2019 to 5.8% of 2020 e-com payments, with consum

41、ers using debit more often to pay for smaller value purchases due to the pandemic.2024 projections include further increases for digital wallets in APAC e-com payments. Digital wallets will increase their dominant lead in e-commerce to 65.4% by 2024, rising to category-leading positions in Australia

42、, Malaysia and The Philippines. Debit cards will also rise from 5.8% of e-commerce payments in 2020 to 7.1% in 2024 on strength in Australia (21.3%), South Korea (20%) and India (18%). Buy now, pay later (BNPL) services will more than double from 2020 to 2024, from 0.6% to 1.3%. These share gains wi

43、ll come largely at the expense of credit cards, bank transfers, cash on delivery (COD) and prepaid cards, all of which will lose share through 2024.Changing POS preferencesAs was the case throughout the world, the economic impacts of COVID-19 were felt most acutely at the point of sale. The pandemic

44、 contributed to significant drops in POS transaction values in India (-8.1%), Singapore (-10.4%), Thailand (-9.2%) and Japan (-7.4%).CreditleadingSouthKand Sln(While the ultimate path of the pandemic globally adds additional uncertainties, strong growth is projected to a recovery of 2019 POS volumes

45、 by late 2021 or 2022. China projects 6.2% growth from 2020 through 2024 - including 9.7% growth in 2021 - growing to represent over U.S.$22 trillion in 2024. The Philippines forecasts the largest growth rate regionally through 2024 at 9.4%, followed closely by India (8.9%) and Vietnam (8.8%). The m

46、ore mature economies of Japan (2.8%), South Korea (4%) and Australia (4.6%) project the lowest POS growth rates through 2024.of POS spend by 2024.Looking ahead to 2024, we see a continuation of these trends at the point of sale, with cash continuing to decline across the region, projected to fall an

47、 additional 43.8% from 2020 to 2024, when cash will represent only 10.8% of transactions. Cash will persist as the leadingpaid with a non-cash payment method. WhBe the shift away from cash was in motion long before 2020, the pandemic greatly accelerated the trend.2020 witnessed large shifts in POS transactions with cash, dropping fromMuch of the POS spend previously dedicated to cash shifted to mobile wallets. Mobile wallets share increased by 12% in 2020, rising from 35.9% in 2019 to 402% in 2020. Mobile wallets approached a three- year acceleration in 2