2022年职称英语考试阅读理解习题.docx

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1、2022年职称英语考试阅读理解习题（四十）There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the

2、degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.The first of these methods is the persistence method； the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the

3、 persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is no

4、t the best forecasting method to use.The trends method involves determining the speed anddirection of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some fut

5、ure time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, suing the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction

6、 for a long period of time. If they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over man years to mak

7、e the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for new York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is simi

8、lar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.The analog method is a slightly more complicated method ofproducing a forecast. It involves examining today s forecast scenario and remembering a day i

9、n the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features

10、 rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.1. What factor is NOT mentioned in choosing a forecasting method?A. Imagination of the forecaster.B. Necessary amount of in

11、formation.C. Practical knowledge of the forecaster.D. Degree of difficulty involved in forecasting.2. Persistence method will work wellif weather conditions change greatly from day to day.A. if weather conditions do not change much.B. on sunny days.C. on rainy days.3. The limitation of the trends me

12、thod is the same as the persistence method in thatit makes predications about weather.A. it makes predications about precipitation.B. the weather features need to be well defined.C. the weather features need to be constant for a long period of time.4. Which method may involve historical weather data

13、?A. Thetrendsmethod.B. Theanalogmethod.C. Both climatology method and analog methodThetrendsmethod andthe persistencemethod.5. It will beimpossibleto makeweatherforecast using theanalog methodA. when the current weather scenario differs from the analog.B. when the current weather scenario is the same as the analog.C. when the analog is over ten years old.D. when the analog is a simple repetition of the current weatherscenario.