凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》.ppt

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1、Structured Problem Solving&Hypothesis GenerationConsulting Skills WorkshopGoals of this moduleLay out a systematic approach to solving business problems“Structured Problem Solving”Establish a common“modus operandus”for Consulting teamsPractice the suggested process on a real-life example 2004 Capgem

2、ini-All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd-Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation,Author/Consulting Skills WorkshopDefining the issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendationsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementFind InsightsAnalyse DataGather DataForm Hypoth

3、esesSo what?aha,new thoughtWhat you should do and howDefine the IssuesWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysis 2004 Capgemini-All rights

4、 reservedXxx/yymmdd-Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation,Author/Consulting Skills WorkshopHypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our clients problemForm HypothesesDefine the IssuesGather DataAnalyse DataFind InsightsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations t

5、o ImplementSo what?aha,new thoughtWhat you should do and howWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysis 2004 Capgemini-All rights reservedX

6、xx/yymmdd-Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation,Author/Consulting Skills WorkshopHypotheses are developed in three stepsWhat are the real strategic issues?What is the impact on the organisation?What are the priorities?We think.It looks like.The right answer may be.The options could be

7、.We believe this to be true.A series of statements,not yet backed by dataBased on initial data search or expert opinionsA number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.Is there a market for white label insurance products?Direct channels are growingRetailers have a strong channel

8、and brandThere are existing productsChubb Insurance can access new business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulting Is low cost of acquisition and profitable businessDefine the questionReview and Describe Multiple AssertionsForm the hypothesis123Consulting Skills WorkshopA hypothesis should i

9、dentify not only the issue but also the cause and the impactThink through these three stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it:What is the issue?What is the underlying opportunity?Where is the advantage?What do you think causes the issue?What are the key drivers of

10、 the process?What is the impact of the issue?How can we tell there is an opportunity?Why do we care?“x is anopportunity.”“due to.”“resultingin.”Consulting Skills WorkshopDEFINE THE PROBLEMSTRUCTURE THE ANALYSISFIND THE SOLUTIONOur problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple

11、series of questionsIs there a problem or opportunity?If so where does it lie?Why does it exist?What could we do about it?What should we do about it?Fine,but IWIK H2 do this.2004 Capgemini-All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd-Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation,Author/Consulting Skills Work

12、shop“If you dont know where you are going,any road will take you there.”-AnonymousWhy problem definition matters 2004 Capgemini-All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd-Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation,Author/Consulting Skills WorkshopIn structuring a problem,break it into smaller,easier-to

13、-handle components AND start with the right definitionsUS Car MarketLight TrucksPassenger CarsBig 3Mini VansSport UtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerBut be careful why does this not work?2004 Capgemini-All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd-Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation,Author/Consulting Ski

14、lls WorkshopMutually Exclusive and Comprehensively ExhaustiveThe most important rule for any structure you impose 2004 Capgemini-All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd-Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation,Author/Consulting Skills WorkshopDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat differentiates a good hypothes

15、is from a bad one?On target:Answers the core question on the clients mindAccurate:Embraces the entire range of competitive or profit driversMinimal:“Occams razor”Actionable:Can be quantified and testedOn timeGood Hypotheses AreCannot be refutedCannot possibly be quantifiedRequire you to“Boil the Oce

16、an”Are so obvious that nobody can intelligently disagree with itOr look like an abstract model of a process consisting of boxes,arrows and cloudsBad Hypotheses 2004 Capgemini-All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd-Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation,Author/Consulting Skills WorkshopDEVELOP A

17、 HYPOTHESISHow to find a good hypothesisThere are proven processes to generate hypotheses:Talk to lots of people about the core problemHave a brainstorming case team meetingTaguchi method ask“5 Whys”Start with general validity checks for your hypotheses:Assume perfect rationality how ought the busin

18、ess system to behave?Look for analogies(other industries or problems)Imagine that you had perfect information what would the ideal analysis look like?Try Lateral Thinking:Think about the problem from a different angle 2004 Capgemini-All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd-Structured Problem Solving and Hypoth

19、esis Generation,Author/Consulting Skills WorkshopDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat if your hypothesis is proven wrong?You Win!Hypothesis-driven thinking requires frequent reviews of the prevailing and current hypotheses:Do we still think they are right?Are we making progress towards disproving them?Are they

20、at the right level of generality/predictiveness?Having proven a hypothesis wrong means you have made a big step towards answering your question!“A wise man sometimes changes his mind,but a fool never.”-Arabic Proverb 2004 Capgemini-All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd-Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation,Author/Consulting Skills WorkshopSummaryTo be developed thank you!2004 Capgemini-All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd-Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation,Author/