叙利亚危机【英文】教学内容.ppt
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1、叙利亚危机【英文】叙利亚危机【英文】AgendaBackground on Syria and MapsOpposition Players in SyriaRecent game-changing ThresholdsThe Perspective of the Assad RegimeLikely outcomes ahead for Syria2Background on SyriaSyria Overview4Ethnic Distribution in Syria5Syria OverviewHIMSDIMASHQDIMASHQTARTUSAL LADHIOIYAHHAMAIDLIB
2、HALABAR RAQQAHDAYR AZ ZAWRAL HASAKAHAS SUWAYDADARA6Syria OverviewAa7How is the situation in Syria different from that in LibyaSyrias conflict has important implications for the entire region(Libyas less so)The balance of regional power would significantly shift with a fall of the Assad regimeOther r
3、egional players have an interest in sustaining the Assad regimeThe Syrian government has air defences which prevent easy airspace control by the WestThe Syrian government has the military power to crush a poorly armed oppositionThere are no easy or obvious arms supply routes to the oppositionThe Lib
4、yan civil war was largely a two dimensional conflictPrimarily a geographically east-west conflictPrimarily a conflict between the peoples of the east(Cyrenica)and the west(Tripoli and the Qadhadhfa)The West was comfortable with the ideology of the opposition Libya.Not so in Syria.8How is the situati
5、on in Syria different from that in EgyptOpposition to Assad grew gradually,and had different various origins.Massive opposition to Mubarak was immediate,universal,and overwhelming.Syrias conflict has sectarian overtones which have implications across the region.The struggle to depose Mubarak was wit
6、hout a sectarian angleIf the Assad regime falls,it is not clear who/what will fill the power vacuum.With Egypt,there was the army.The Assad regime has demonstrated that it is willing to use lethal force against its people.Mubarak demonstrated relative restraint9Opposition Players in SyriaSyrian Nati
7、onal Council(SNC)The Syrian National Council(SNC),founded in Oct.2011,is a coalition of seven groups outside of Syria.It seeks to serve as a single point of contact for the international community.The SNC wants to:Overthrow the regime using all legal meansAffirm national unity,reject ethnic strifePr
8、otect national independence and sovereignty,and reject foreign military interventionIn March 2012,the SNC created a military bureau to co-ordinate armed anti-government groups in Syria.The FSA said it would not co-operate with the new bureau.The SNC is dominated by Syrias majority Sunnis,and has not
9、 attracted much support from Christians or AlawitesThe SNC is not yet as credible as Libyas NTC,but intl community still interested11National Co-ordination Council(NCC)National Co-ordination Committee(NCC),formed inside Syria in September,2012,is made up of 13 left-leaning political parties,three Ku
10、rdish political parties,and independents.The NNC wants:Wants to dialogue with the regime,conditional on military withdrawal from the streetsNo foreign intervention that would involve military measures,such as a no-fly zoneEconomic sanctions and other diplomatic measures to increase pressure on Assad
11、The NCC has also been reluctant to affiliate itself with the SNC and has challenged the SNCs primacy12Free Syrian ArmyThe Free Syrian Army(FSA)was formed in August 2011 by army deserters based in Turkey.The FSA says it wants to:Topple the regimeProtect the countrys resources Stand up to the Syrian a
12、rmy which supports the Assad regimeThe FSA claims to have 15,000 fighters,but may have lessAnalysts say that the FSA is no longer only deserters,but also an umbrella group for civilians who have taken up armsThe UN Human Rights Council said it had documented human rights abuses committed by the FSA.
13、The FSA said field commanders made independent decisionsThe FSA and SNC have found it difficult to work together13Areas of Fighting14Current Status of Situation in SyriaThe UNs(Annans)six-point peace plan1.Syrian-led political process to address the aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people2.UN-
14、supervised cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties to protect civilians3.All parties to ensure provision of humanitarian assistance to all areas affected by the fighting,and implement a daily two-hour humanitarian pause4.Authorities to intensify the pace and scale of release of a
15、rbitrarily detained persons5.Authorities to ensure freedom of movement throughout the country for journalists6.Authorities to respect freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefullyThe UNs(Annans)six-point peace plan1.Syrian-led political process to address the aspirations and concern
16、s of the Syrian people2.UN-supervised cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties to protect civilians3.All parties to ensure provision of humanitarian assistance to all areas affected by the fighting,and implement a daily two-hour humanitarian pause4.Authorities to intensify the pac
17、e and scale of release of arbitrarily detained persons5.Authorities to ensure freedom of movement throughout the country for journalists6.Authorities to respect freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefullySyria Observer MissionUN Security Council resolution 2042 approves a team of
18、up to 300 unarmed observersAs of this week there are about 100 unarmed observers in SyriaViolence continues despite the presence of observers.Even a convoy including observers escorted by the Syrian Army was attacked on May 9th.Currently,bomb attacks are on the rise,and pitched battles are much less
19、 frequent than one month ago15Recent Game-Changing ThresholdsThe Assad regime is getting more and more brutal in its repressionThe regime has begun to use heavy weapons in residential areas,trapping civilians in the crossfireThe regime did not make efforts to spare civilians,and it has not shown con
20、cern for civilians who were displacedThere is evidence of looting by regime forcesThere are allegations that the regime forces have engaged in grave atrocitiesThe regime is no longer holding back as it did earlier with the uprisings(although it always beat demonstrators,tortured detainees,etc.)Regim
21、e began to declare“victories”over the opposition,but at a high civilian cost.Regime forces ultimately radicalized segments of the population with their abuse of armed power Israeli soldiers detain Palestinian men on a street in the West Bank.Administrative detention of Palestinians by Israel is a co
22、mmon human rights abuse.Thousands of Palestinians are in Israeli jails today uncharged of any crime.17The Syrian opposition responds by becoming more savvy&strategicThe opposition got more savvy,and more creative.The governments attempt to divide and conquer and compartmentalize the country didnt wo
23、rk.Opposition groups worked hard to bridge geographic and sectarian linesSome opposition groups started to go on the offensive,including using arms(weeding out informants,tracking snipers,attacking checkpoints,ambushing regime security forces)There was also evidence of the criminalization of both th
24、e regime and opposition forces(e.g.kidnapping,carjacking,etc.)Two opposition narratives emerged:that of the peaceful and virtuous activist;and that of the armed opposition18Other alarming developmentsBomb attacks on security installations,esp.in Damascus and Aleppo,whether by opposition,or plants by
25、 regime forces.This creates a normalization of high levels of violence.It also gives the regime the excuse to“fight against terrorism”as it pursues its endBut as the violence of the regime causes it to lose touch with its population,its ability to use anything but violence diminishesMassacres create
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