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1、 毕业设计（论文）题目：信息不对称条件下工程项目招投标市场中的博弈行为分析 学生姓名： 学 号： 班 级: 专 业： 工商管理指导教师： 2013 年 5 月信息不对称条件下工程项目招投标市场中的博弈行为分析 学生姓名： 学 号： 班 级： 所在院( 系 ): 经济与管理学院指导教师： 完成日期: 2013年5月摘要建筑市场是一个典型的信息不完全，信息不对称市场，招标投标双方非对称信息下复杂的博弈关系严重地降低了市场效率。随着我国工程承包市场的逐步完善，建筑施工企业之间形成日益激烈竞争机制。对投标企业来说，取得中标越来越困难，即使成功中标，留给企业的利润空间也在逐步缩小。作为企业，能否在博弈中

2、胜出，以合理的报价中标，直接关系以后的利润水平。对于招标方，在逆向选择的过程中，采用何种评标模式才能较好的保证利益，如何改善才可以规避业主在逆向选择的风险已成为一个亟待解决的问题。目前，我国建筑工程项目招标投标模式，正逐渐从有标底评标模式向无标底评标模式过渡。本文以信息不对称为主线，先分析介绍了我国建筑工程项目招标市场的现状及存在的问题。第三章研究了投标报价与博弈论的相关联系，探讨了博弈论在招投标中的应用。然后在吸取了国内外研究成果的基础上，从投标方的角度出发，运用博弈论、委托代理理论等工具，根据综合评估法，分别建立了有业主标底的报价博弈模型和无业主标底的报价博弈模型。有业主标底时，评标基准价

3、依赖业主标底的影响相对较大，投标人在报价中需要通过分析业主的喜好，合理地预测业主的标底，并适当调整报价根据竞争的激烈程度。在无业主标底的情况下，报价面临着更多不确定因素，投标人需要了解更多其他投标人的历史报价资料和项目信息。最后通过实例分析，阐述了如何在实际工程招投标中，利用本文提出的投标报价博弈模型来确定最优报价的具体过程。关键词：博弈论；招标投标；投标报价；综合评估法Analysis of the Behavior in the Project Tender and Bidding Market Based on Game TheoryABSTRACTConstruction market

4、 is a typical market of incomplete, asymmetric information. The market efficiency has been decreased when the bidding are under the complex game relationship of asymmetric information. With gradual improvement of engineering contracting market in China, construction companies have developed their co

5、mpetitive mechanism for the increasingly fierce competition. For the bid enterprises, it is becoming more and more difficult to obtain the bid, even if they are successful; the enterprises profit margins are narrowing. As an enterprise, that whether it can win in the game with a reasonable price, ha

6、s direct relationship with its future profits. For the bid enterprises, in the process of adverse selection, it has become a pressing issue that which kind of evaluation model should be adopted to ensure the interests and reduce the risks of the owner in the adverse selection. At present, constructi

7、on project bidding model is changing from a base price to that of without base bid evaluation model. The main line of this paper is the asymmetric information, firstly analyzing the present situation of the construction project bidding and the problems there exits. The third chapter deals with the r

8、elationship between the bidding and the game theory as well as the application of game theory in the bidding. And then on the basis of absorbing the research outcome, from the angle of the bidders, the author adopts the tool of game theory, principal agent theory, and establishes the game model of t

9、he owners quotation and that without the owners quotation according to the comprehensive evaluation. In the model with the owners quotation, the bid base price is dependent on the owners quotation to a large degree. The tender bidder has to analyze the likes of the owner, predict the base number rea

10、sonably, and adjusting the quotation according to the competition. In the other model, there exists many uncertain factors and the tender bidder should have knowledge of other bidders quotation material and projects. Finally, an example to illustrate the actual project bidding, bidding game model of

11、 this paper to determine the optimal offer a specific process.Key words：Game Theory ；Tender-bi；tender offer；comprehensive evaluation method目录第1章 绪论11.1 研究背景及意义11.2 国内外研究现状21.3 研究思路和方法21.4 研究内容3第2章 我国工程建设项目招投标市场现状分析42.1我国建筑市场承发包双方信息不对称的具体表现42.2我国建筑市场的招投标制度52.2.1 建设工程招投标的定义及范围52.2.2 建筑工程招标投标的作用52.3我国建

12、筑市场招标投标中的逆向选择问题62.3.1过分低价竞标62.3.2串标围标等寻租行为62.3.3市场均衡价决不是最低价72.3.4失信现象7第3章 招投标市场中的博弈博弈行为93.1招投标市场中博弈思想的引入93.1.1 招投标与博弈论的联系93.1.2招标投标过程中的博弈关系103.2 博弈论在投标报价中的应用10第4章 非对称信息下招投标市场综合评估法报价博弈模型124.1 综合评估法概述124.2有业主标底的报价博弈模型124.2.1基本假设124.2.2 模型构建134.2.3主要参数的确定方法134.2.4影响评标基准价的因素分析144.3 无业主标底的报价博弈模型164.3.1相关定义与基本假设164.3.2模型构建174.3.3模型的分析与讨论17第5章 案例分析195.1 项目基本情况195.2 确定最优报价21结论25参考文献26致谢27