股票外汇技术分析英文版ppt (27)(精品).ppt

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1、Our Expertise:Your FutureIntroduction To Technical Analysis&TradingTraderMade International LtdMarket Leading Trading&Sales ToolsOur Expertise:Your FutureIntroductionTraderMade InternationalDBFS Group LLPGlobal leader in advanced Trading Charting and Technical Analysis softwareThe banks who use Trad

2、erMade represent 88%of the FX market liquidityBrian McNultyCo-Founder and Head of Business Development,DBFS GroupSenior Technical Trader,Rand Merchant BankTechnical Analyst,Automated TradingOur Expertise:Your FutureAgendaIntroducing Technical Analysis Foundations Of Technical Analysis Chart Construc

3、tion&TerminologyTraders Tools Moving AveragesCommon Patterns Traders Tools Oscillators3 Elements Of Successful Trading Bringing it all togetherQuestions and AnswersOur Expertise:Your FutureIntroducing Technical Analysis“Technical Analysis is the study of market action,primarily through the use of ch

4、arts,for the purpose of forecasting future price movement”John Murphy:TAOTFMDetermine future price directionsPrimarily done through studying chartsWhere did it come from?Japanese rice traders to see how much people were paying/S&D Charles H.Dow in 1884 stock market averages publicationRobert Rhea 19

5、32 Dow TheoryOur Expertise:Your FutureWho uses technical analysisA Trader is someone who takes a position in the marketTechnical Analysis is used by anyone who requires a view on a marketCategories:TradersHedge Fund ManagersCorporate TreasuriesE-commerce/Sales teamsRetail(HNI,Private Investors)What

6、is the purpose of a Trader:Speculative(Buy low,sell high!simple?)Hedging(manage risk)Go long,go short or stay outPercentages and probability analysisMoney managementOur Expertise:Your FutureDifferent schools of thoughtFundamental Forecasting:Studies the cause of the market /whyFocuses on supply and

7、demandPredicting future moves based on monetary policy,economic conditions weather,political etcCalculate the intrinsic valueTechnical Forecasting:Believes the fundamentals are factored inPattern recognition and analysisStudy of past behaviourin times of confusion,charts come out!These techniques ar

8、e complimentary!Majy market practitioners use bothTechnical is indirectly studying fundamentalsListen and understand bothUse to confirm signals/build into your modelOur Expertise:Your FutureFoundations of Technical AnalysisThe 3 premises on which technical approach isbased are:Market action discount

9、s everythingHistory repeats itselfPrices move in trendsOur Expertise:Your FutureMarket Action Discounts EverythingUnless this if fully understood and accepted,nothing else that follows will make much sense.Anything that can affect prices is reflected in the price so that the study of price action is

10、 all that is needed.The charts do not in themselves cause markets to move,they simply reflect the bullish or bearish psychology of the market place.Instead peoples actions cause the market to move and TA is just a picture of peoples actionsWhen news comes out in the market,people react and the price

11、 will move until everyone is happy that the price has now factored this in.Our Expertise:Your FutureFoundations History Repeats ItselfHuman Psychology:Chart patterns have been identified and categorized for over 100 years.Human psychology does not tend to change,hence patterns that have worked well

12、in the past,are assumed to work well in the future.Crowd Theory:Group behaviour is more predictable than individual.In the markets,vast majority behave as groupsSelf-fulfilmentEnough people believe in it and it will become trueOur Expertise:Your FutureFoundations Introducing TrendThe trend is absolu

13、tely essential to the technical approachA trend can be defined as the direction of the market.An uptrend is a succession of higher highs and higher lows and a downtrend is a succession of lower highs and lower lows.The whole purpose of charting the price action of a market is to identify trends in e

14、arly stages of their development for the purpose of trading in the direction of those trends.Why?A trend in a motion is more likely to continue than to reverse.The majority of the rest of the tools are simply to help measure the trend in order to participate.ResistanceResistanceResistanceSupportSupp

15、ortSupportOur Expertise:Your Future The Concept Of A Trend(continued)Why not just buy(go long)when the market is going up then?It is all about timingIn too early on the wrong sideIn too late market will move against youCorrectionsEnters a sideways market get whipped!More bad news.major trends have 3

16、 phases1.Accumulation informed buying by most astute investors-bad news assimilated2.Public Participation Most technical trend follows begin to participate,prices begin to advance rapidly and business news improves3.Distribution Newspapers begin to print increasingly bullish stores;speculative volum

17、e and public participation increases.(note this is when those long at 1 sell!)Hope to show some ways Traders can identify trend early enough along with some other indicators that can mean we are not always in 3!Our Expertise:Your FutureChart Construction&TerminologyTypes of Charts:Price Bar(daily ye

18、arly)most commonLine Chart(close only)CandlestickVolume total of trading activityTerminology:Placing an order(bid/offer)Long/ShortStopsMinimal Price ObjectiveCorrectionsSupport and ResistanceTrend linesOur Expertise:Your FutureFundamentals of charting Support&ResistanceThe basic idea behind this sup

19、port-resistance theory is that the understanding of the future lies in the past.Price levels that were significant in the past will be of importance for the price action in the future.Usually a support or resistance level is identified by previous lows or previous highs and is a level beyond which p

20、rices may have difficulty in moving.They are therefore considered important levels Trend reversal could be identified by watching the support and resistance levels.Role ReversalOur Expertise:Your FutureFundamentals of charting TrendlinesThey are diagonal lines that either define and area of support

21、in the market or an area of resistance.It identifies the current trend of a marketIn an uptrend a line is drawn connecting the lows to form a trendline.This is because the buyers in the market are pushing the market in an uptrend The trendline then helps not only to determine the extremities of the

22、corrective phases but maybe even more importantly tells us when the trend is changing a reversalFilters-Validity of the trendline breakingOur Expertise:Your FutureFundamentals of charting ChannelsThe important line in a channel pattern is still the trendline.The channel line is purely a measuring li

23、ne and should not be used as a trading signal.It can be used as a take profit indicator but it should not be used to establish a position against the prevailing trend.The channel line can be used for short term profit takingOnce the channel line has been drawn on the chart,the width can be measured

24、and projected from the break of the trendline.This is the Minimum Price Objective(MPO).Our Expertise:Your FutureTraders Tools-Moving AveragesRemember,the trend is your friend!Purpose of most tools is to work out which way the trend is going asapMAs are therefore used to smooth out some of the noise“

25、that occurs in the market so that the underlying trend is more easily viewedMoving Averages are the most popular method of doing so but be aware using MAs in a trendless market is one of the quickest ways to lose money!Cannot simply trade one (too long,too short,non-trending_Our Expertise:Your Futur

26、eCommon PatternsWe know already that markets move in trends with peaks and troughs in their price movementsWe have also seen how we can use tools such as Moving Averages to identify the start and end of trendsThe problem is that markets dont always trend up or down-they also move sideways.Another ch

27、allenge of a trader is to work out whether this period of transition is just a pause before a continuation or the sign that a reversal of trend will happen.There are specific patterns that can help the trader to decide which it is:Reversal Patterns:These patterns normally indicate an important rever

28、sal in trend is happeningContinuation Patterns:These patterns usually indicate that the sideways price action is nothing more than a pause in the prevailing trend.This is done by identifying recognisable patterns within the price movements,which can then be used to generate price objectives for pote

29、ntial future moves i.e.Is a reversal or continuation likely and if so,predict where the market will move tooOur Expertise:Your FutureReversal Patterns Head&ShouldersBreaking of the neckline very high probability patternOur Expertise:Your FutureReversal Patterns Double TopTwo PeaksFiltersOur Expertis

30、e:Your FutureContinuation Patterns Flags&PennantsContinuation patterns are usually shorterContinuation patterns tell us that a sideways movement on a chart may be just a pause in the prevailing(longer-term)trend,after which prices will continue to move in the same direction as before.They must have

31、been preceded by a sharp and almost straight line move.flying at half mastOur Expertise:Your FutureContinuation Patterns TrianglesTriangle Patterns are not traded until the break out occurs.Expected direction is upTrend signal confirmation s given by closing penetrationAscending Triangles bullishDes

32、cending Triangles-bearishOur Expertise:Your FutureTraders Tools-OscillatorsAnother useful tool in a non-trending market.Provides the technical trader with a tool that can enable to profit from these periodic sideways and trendless markets.Runs continuouslyAlso used to warn us that a trend reversal i

33、s possibly approachingUsed to warn of a trend reversal before the prices reach the actual top or bottom(deceleration of the price increase/losing momentum)Overbought or oversoldIt is studying the rate of ascent or decentM=P Px(where Px is price x days ago)Types:Stochastics,RSI,Larry Williams,MACD Ou

34、r Expertise:Your FutureTraders Tools-OscillatorsOur Expertise:Your FutureThe 3 Elements Of Successful TradingPrice Forecasting -what to doWhich way a market is expected to trend.(buy or sell)It is the crucial first step in trading decision.Timing whenTrading tactics,or timing,determines specific ent

35、ry and exit points.Money Management how muchCovers the allocation of funds.(portfolio make-up,diversification,how much money to invest or risk in one market,the use of stops,reward to risk ratios)Our Expertise:Your FutureBringing a Trading strategy togetherDo your homework not really a part time job

36、!Pick one or two oscillators you are comfortable withCombine with trend indicators and confirmation signals and volume indicatorsBack test and paper tradeHave a plan,NEVER trade impulsivelyUnderstand money management/diversifyTrade light until proof of concept Automated entry and exit(profit and sto

37、p)-even if not generated by algorithmic trading systemAlways place your protective stop when you place your orderExit a losing trade as early as possibleLearn to be happy in the minority!Our Expertise:Your FutureQuestions and AnswersOur Expertise:Your FutureFurther ReadingTechnical Analysis of the Financial Markets John J.MurphyDeciphering The Market-J.M.W TadionForecasting Financial Markets-Plummer