(11.1.1)--第3单元ArnoldHowitt-及时行动:风险治理的综合框架.pdf
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1、 ACTING IN TIME:及时行动:A COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR RISK GOVERNANCE 风险治理的综合框架 Arnold M.Howitt,Ph.D.阿诺德M豪威特博士 Co-Director,Program on Crisis Leadership 哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院危机领导力项目 联合主任 Senior Adviser,Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation Harvard Kennedy School The Looming Threat of Disaster 迫在眉睫的灾
2、难威胁 COVID-19 is a dramatic world crisis,but society regularly faces largescale disasters of several types:新冠肺炎疫情是一场戏剧化的世界危机,但是社会经常会面临各种大规模的灾难:Natural disasters 自然灾害(hurricanes 飓风,tsunamis 海啸,earthquakes 地震,floods 洪水),Technology,infrastructure,and systems failures 技术、基础设施以及系统故障 (industrial disasters
3、工业灾难,air crashes 飞机失事,oil spills 石油泄漏),Public health crises 公共卫生危机 (emergent infectious diseases like H1N1,SARS,West Nile virus,avian flu 新发传染病,比如H1N1甲型流感、非典型肺炎、西尼罗河病毒、禽流感;and bioterrorism 以及生物恐怖主义),and 以及 Protests,civil disorder,terrorism 抗议、内乱、恐怖主义 Chronic or long-term emergencies 慢性或长期突发事件 (droug
4、ht,famine,climate change,war 干旱、饥荒、气候变化、战争)The Looming Threat of Disaster 迫在眉睫的灾难威胁 Social Welfare 社会福利(no disaster event 无灾难事件时)Aggregate Social Welfare 社会福利总量 Social Welfare 社会福利(with disaster event 有灾难事件时)Welfare Loss 福利损失 Disaster occurs 灾难发生 Time 时间 The Costs of Disaster 灾难带来的损失 Aggregate Socia
5、l Welfare 社会福利总量 Less Welfare Loss 更少福利损失 Potential Welfare Gain 可能的福利增益 Social Welfare(no disaster event)社会福利(无灾难事件时)Social Welfare(with improved preparation,response,and recovery)社会福利(有更好的准备、响应和恢复工作时)Welfare Loss 福利损失 Disaster occurs 灾难发生 Time 时间 Social Welfare(with disaster event)社会福利(有灾难事件时)But
6、Effective Preparedness Can Make a Difference 但是充分的准备工作会产生影响 Prepare for Response 做好应对准备 Response 应对 Advance Recovery 促进恢复 Recovery 恢复 Pre-Event 事前 Event Begins 事件发生 Event Evolving 事件逐步发展 Post-Event 事后 Prevention/Mitigation 预防/减轻 Five Leverage Points for Reducing Social Loss from Disasters 五个可以减轻灾难带来
7、的社会损失的杠杆点 A Comprehensive Risk Management Framework 风险治理的综合框架 Investment/Action/Intervention 投资/行动/干预 Time Period 时间段 Intended Benefit/Impact 预期受益/影响 Prevention/mitigation 预防/减轻 Before the event 事前 Reducing harm that an event could produce by averting it or minimizing its impacts 通过避免发生或将其影响降至最低,以减轻
8、事件带来的伤害 Preparation for response 做好应对准备 Before the event 事前 Getting ready for rapid,effective response to an event 做好快速有效应对事件的准备 Advance recovery 促进恢复 Before the event 事前 Creating conditions that will make recovery faster,less costly,and more complete 创造条件让恢复工作更快、成本更低、更为全面 Response 应对 During and imm
9、ediately after the event 事中及事后短时间内 Reducing damage in progress and ministering to human needs 在过程中减少损失,满足人们的需求 Recovery 恢复 After the event 事后 Restoring social welfare as rapidly as possible 尽快恢复社会福利 Impacts of Effective Risk Management 有效风险管理的影响 NORMAL OPERATIONS 正常运作 Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howi
10、tt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.The Continuum:Normal Operations to Emergencies 连续过程:从正常运作到突发事件 NORMAL OPERATIONS 正常运作 MINOR OPERATING PROBLEMS 运作中出现问题 Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.8 The Continuum:Normal Operations to Emergencies 连
11、续过程:从正常运作到突发事件 NORMAL OPERATIONS 正常运作 MINOR OPERATING PROBLEMS 运作中出现问题 ROUTINE EMERGENCIES 常规突发事件 Copyright 2012 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.9 EMERGENCIES 突发事件 Placing Emergencies in the Continuum 连续过程中突发事件的位置 What are the Characteristics of Routine Emergencies?
12、常规突发事件的特征 Characteristics 特征:Sudden,unplanned 突如其来、无计划的 High stakes 高风险 Urgent 紧急的 Outcomes will vary depending on plans/decision/actions 后果根据计划/决定/行动不同而有所不同 Copyright 2018 by Arnold M.Howitt and Herman B.Dutch Leonard.All rights reserved.Routine emergencies can be anticipated in terms of general ch
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