2050年全球核电产能展望报告（英）-148正式版.doc

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1、REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 12022 EditionEnergy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2050REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 20502022 EditionINT

2、ERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2022ENERGY, ELECTRICITY ANDNUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATESFOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2050IAEA-RDS-1/42ISBN 978-92-0-136722-8ISSN 1011-2642Printed by the IAEA in AustriaSeptember 2022Cover photo credit:Tapani Karjanlahti / TVO 2022CONTENTSINTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . .

3、. . . . . . . . . .1WORLD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6Energy Overview 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7Nuclear Power Development in 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Final Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14Electricity Production. . . . . . .

4、 . . . . . . . . . . . . .15Energy and Electricity Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . . . . . . . .18Reactor Retirements and Additions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections. . . . . . . . . . .22NORT

5、HERN AMERICA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26Energy Overview 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27Final Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28Electricity Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29Energy and Electricity Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . .

6、 . .30Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . . . . . . . .32Reactor Retirements and Additions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections. . . . . . . . . . .36LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN . . . . . . . . . . . .38Energy Overview 2021 . . . . . . .

7、 . . . . . . . . . . . . .39Final Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40Electricity Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41Energy and Electricity Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . . . . . . . .44Reactor

8、 Retirements and Additions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections. . . . . . . . . . .48NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE . . . . . . .50Energy Overview 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51Final Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9、. .52Electricity Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53Energy and Electricity Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . . . . . . . .56Reactor Retirements and Additions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58Electricity and Nuclear Productio

10、n Projections. . . . . . . . . . .60EASTERN EUROPE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62Energy Overview 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63Final Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64Electricity Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65Energy and Electric

11、ity Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . . . . . . . .68Reactor Retirements and Additions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections. . . . . . . . . . .72AFRICA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12、. . .74Energy Overview 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75Final Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .76Electricity Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77Energy and Electricity Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78Per Capita Energy and Electricity. . .

13、. . . . . . . . . . . . .80Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . . . . . . . .82Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections. . . . . . . . . . .84WESTERN ASIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86Energy Overview 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87Final Energy C

14、onsumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88Electricity Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89Energy and Electricity Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . . . . . . . .92Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections. . .

15、. . . . . . . .94SOUTHERN ASIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96Energy Overview 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Final Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Electricity Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Energy and Electricity Projecti

16、ons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . . . . . . . . 102 Reactor Retirements and Additions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections. . . . . . . . . . . 106CENTRAL AND EASTERN ASIA . 108Energy Overview 2021 .

17、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Final Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 Electricity Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Energy and Electricity Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . .

18、 . . . . . . 114 Reactor Retirements and Additions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections. . . . . . . . . . . 118SOUTH-EASTERN ASIA . 120Energy Overview 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Final Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19、 . . . 122 Electricity Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Energy and Electricity Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . . . . . . . . 126OCEANIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

20、 . . . . . . . . . . . 128Energy Overview 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Final Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 Electricity Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Energy and Electricity Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Nuclear

21、Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . . . . . . . . 134REFERENCES .137IntroductionReference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication currently in its 42nd edition containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050.The publication is organized

22、into world and regional subsections and starts with a summary of the status of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2021 based on the latest statistical data collected by the IAEAs Power Reactor Information System. It then presents global and regional projections for energy and elect

23、ricity up to 2050 derived from two international studies: the International Energy Agencys World Energy Outlook 2021 1 and the United States Energy Information Administrations International Energy Outlook 2021 2. The energy and electricity data for 2021 are estimated, as the latest information avail

24、able from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 3 and International Energy Agency 4 is for 2019. Population data originate from World Population Prospects 2022 5, published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.Global and re

25、gional nuclear power projections are presented as low and high cases, encompassing the uncertainties inherent in projecting trends. The projections are based on a critical review of (i) the global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear power projections made by other international organization

26、s, (ii) national projections supplied by individual countries for a recent joint OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and IAEA study 6 and (iii) estimates of the expert group participating in an annual IAEA consultancy meeting.The nuclear electrical generating capacity estimates presented in Table 5 on page 2

27、4 of the publication are derived using a country by country bottom-up approach. In deriving these estimates, the group of experts considered all operating reactors, possible licence renewals, planned shutdowns and plausible construction projects foreseen for the next several decades. The experts bui

28、ld the estimates project by project by assessing the plausibility of each considering a high and low case.The assumptions of the low case are that current market, technology and resource trends continue and there are few additional changes in explicit laws, policies and regulations affecting nuclear

29、 power. This case was designed to produce a conservative but plausible set of projections. Additionally, the low case does not1assume that targets for nuclear power in a particular country will necessarily be achieved. The high case projections are much more ambitious but are still plausible and tec

30、hnically feasible. Country policies on climate change are also considered in the high case. In both cases the same outlook of economic and electricity demand growth based on current expectations is assumed. The high case projection is not intended to reflect a net zero carbon emissions ambition. It

31、does not assume a specific pathway for energy system transitions in the different countries but integrates the expressed intentions of the countries for expanding the use of nuclear power.The low and high estimates reflect contrasting, but not extreme, underlying assumptions about the different driv

32、ing factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the way they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity development by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect th

33、e whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible.By 2050 global final energy consumption is projected to increase by about 30% and electricity production is expected to double 1,2. Worldwide, coal remains the dominant energy source for electricity production at about 36% for

34、 2021. While its share in electricity production has changed little since 1980, that of nuclear, renewables and natural gas has increased over the past 40 years. Today, nuclear contributes about 10% of global electricity production.The adoption of the Glasgow Climate Pact following the 26th United N

35、ations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in November 2021 has led to renewed momentum toward reaching net zero global CO2 emissions by 2050. In the lead-up to COP26, a number of countries revised their nationally determined contributions, committed to reaching net zero CO2 emissions i

36、n the coming decades and recognized the role that nuclear energy can play in reaching this climate goal. One of the key outcomes of COP26 is the pledge by a number of countries and international finance institutions to stop financing new coal power plants and to phase out existing coal power plants.

37、Energy security and resilience are currently major policy concerns. Recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions and military conflict in Europe have impacted the reliability of energy systems, impeded energy flows across regions and led to significant increases in energy price

38、s. There is growing recognition2of the role of nuclear energy as a key contributor to the security of energy supply to avert future energy supply and price shocks.In light of this evolving energy landscape, with strong commitment to climate action and renewed scrutiny of energy supply security, a nu

39、mber of Member States have revised their national energy policy, leading to decisions for the long term operation of existing reactors, new construction of Generation III/III+ designs, and the development and deployment of small modular reactors.These factors are contributing to government announcem

40、ents of a larger role for nuclear energy in their energy and climate strategies, leading to a notable upward revision of the high case by about 10% compared with the 2021 edition of this publication. Relative to a global nuclear electrical generating capacity of 390 gigawatts (electrical) (GW(e) in

41、2021, the low case projections indicate that world nuclear capacity will remain essentially the same at 404 GW(e). In the high case, world nuclear capacity is expected to more than double to 873 GW(e)1 by 2050.There are a number of necessary conditions for a substantial increase in installed nuclear

42、 capacity. A number of these issues are being addressed, including international efforts toward regulatory and industrial harmonization, as well as progress with final disposal of high level radioactive waste. However, a number of challenges remain, including financing, economic and supply chain dif

43、ficulties for new nuclear construction in some regions.Climate change mitigation is a key driver of decisions to continue or expand the use of nuclear power. According to the IAEA 7, the use of nuclear power has avoided about 70 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions over the past 50 years. Commitments made un

44、der the Paris Agreement and other initiatives could support nuclear power development, provided the necessary energy policies and market designs are established to facilitate investments in dispatchable low carbon technologies.As stated by the International Energy Agency 8, almost half of the CO2 emission reductions needed to reach net zero in 2050 will need to come