国际能源署-2022年第4季度天然气市场报告（英）-2022.9-80正式版.doc

《国际能源署-2022年第4季度天然气市场报告（英）-2022.9-80正式版.doc》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《国际能源署-2022年第4季度天然气市场报告（英）-2022.9-80正式版.doc（82页珍藏版）》请在淘文阁 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、Gas Market Report, Q4-2022including Global Gas Security Review 2022每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYThe IEA examines the full spectrum ofIEA member countries:energy issues including oil,

2、gas andAustraliacoal supply and demand, renewableAustriaenergy technologies, electricityBelgiummarkets, energy efficiency, access toCanadaenergy, demand side managementCzech Republicand much more. Through its work, theDenmarkIEA advocates policies that willEstoniaenhance the reliability, affordabili

3、tyFinlandand sustainability of energy in its 31Francemember countries, 11 associationGermanycountries and beyond.GreeceHungaryPlease note that this publication isIrelandsubject to specific restrictions thatItalylimit its use and distribution. TheJapanterms and conditions are availableKoreaonline at

4、www.iea.org/t&c/LithuaniaLuxembourgThis publication and any map included herein areMexicowithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyNetherlandsover any territory, to the delimitation ofNew Zealandinternational frontiers and boundaries and to thename of any territory, city or area.NorwayPolandP

5、ortugalSource: IEA. All rights reserved.Slovak RepublicInternational Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.orgSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesIEA association countries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineGas Market Report Q4 20

6、22Global Gas Security Review 2022AbstractThis years winter gas season opens with extreme natural gas pricelevels and volatility, caused by unprecedented uncertainty of supplyas Russia steeply curtails its pipeline deliveries to Europe. Theresult is considerable market tension in alternative sources

7、ofsupply. Security of supply has become a top priority in Europe andother importing regions as a total cut-off in Russian flows to Europecannot be ruled out, creating further tensions and demanddestruction for all competing LNG importers.The gas crisis triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine in Feb

8、ruary2022 has caused a series of market adjustments. European buyershave strongly increased their LNG procurement, resulting in markettightening and demand destruction in various importing regions.This has also had a visible impact on LNG contracting behaviours,with a return to more traditional feat

9、ures such as fixed-destinationand longer-duration contracts. The European Union, whose memberstates are directly exposed to the threat of further supply cuts, hasadopted a number of measures to enhance security of supply andmarket resilience ahead of the coming winter.This quarterly report includes

10、the IEAs annual Global Gas SecurityReview and an analysis of short-term gas market evolution to 2023.PAGE | 2IEA. All rights reserved.Gas Market Report Q4 2022Table of contentsGlobal Gas Security Review 20226Securing natural gas supply in times of crisis7Security of supply in the context of the curr

11、ent gas crisis9The European Unions gas supply security faces unprecedented risksamid the structural uncertainty created by Russias behaviour10The European Unions security of supply regulation identifies three stagesof gas crisis11By the end of Q3 2022, 11 EU member states had issued early warningnot

12、ices, while Germany declared alert level under its gas emergency plan12Winter is coming: Measures to enhance security of supply ahead of the2022/23 heating season12EU gas inventory levels stood at 87% of their working storage capacity on26 September 202215Maintaining storage at adequate levels for t

13、he second half of the heatingseason will be a crucial factor in ensuring the security of gas supply16The deliverability of underground storage sites starts to decline whenstorage levels fall below 50% of working capacity17Gas demand savings and LNG imports will be crucial to maintain gasstorage at a

14、dequate levels until the end of the 2022/23 heating season . 18Simulating late cold spells: The Achilles heel of European gas supplysecurity18Solidarity, unity and responsible household behaviour will be crucial toensure supply security20High prices erode gas demand across the main gas markets in As

15、iaPacific22Demand response to high LNG prices varied widely among the mainimporters in Asia24Global LNG market tightness induces shifting LNG trade patterns in Asia25Global Gas Security Review 2022Asian spot LNG imports collapsed in January-August 202226Sailing away: Outlook for new FSRU projects sh

16、arply deteriorates inSouth and Southeast Asia27Most of the FSRU project pipeline is at risk in South and Southeast Asia28Europes diversification of supply triggers a flurry of developments inAfrica and the Mediterranean29New developments in Africa contribute to growing the continents naturalgas expo

17、rt capacity and deliverability from existing infrastructure over theshort to medium term31LNG contracting and availability update32Turbulence in 2020-2022 highlights both the benefits and limitations ofLNG market flexibility33LNG trade plays a strong balancing role in global natural gas markets . 34

18、Investment decisions are recovering gradually from the low point in 202035A cautious return to investment in new liquefaction capacity36Contracting activity has rebounded strongly since 2021 amid high andvolatile spot prices37The Asia Pacific region remains the dominant driver of LNG contractingglob

19、ally38Contracting has returned to more traditional terms since 202039Recent contracting trends present a shift back to destination-fixed LNGsupply41Destination-flexible contracts and uncontracted capacity account for thebulk of additional export volumes to 202542North America is the main source of a

20、dditional contracted exports to2025, while Asia Pacific retains its leading role in contracted LNG imports43PAGE | 3IEA. All rights reserved.Gas Market Report Q4 2022Portfolio players role in the global LNG market and their trading volumesare important .44Expiring legacy contracts and uncontracted L

21、NG could further boostmarket flexibility .46About 180 bcm of active LNG contracts are due to expire between 2022and 2025, and almost 320 bcm will have expired by 2030 .47Oil-linked pricing remains dominant in import contracts, though gasindexation is gaining ground .48Among export contracts, gas-ind

22、exed volumes show an increasing share,driven by the United States .49LNG capacity outages continue to tighten the global gas market .50Gas market update and short-term forecast .51Gas demand growth from the industrial sector, which strongly recovered in early 2021, is being severely affected by tigh

23、t supply and spiralling spotprices .52North American gas demand still sees some growth in 2022 in spite ofhigher prices, although a slowdown is expected for 2023 .53US gas consumption was up by over 4% y-o-y in the first eight months of2022 .54South America is expected to see negative gas consumptio

24、n growth in2022 .55South American gas demand picked up at the end of Q2, but remainedbelow 2021 in H1 .56European gas demand is set for its steepest drop in history amid recordhigh prices .57European gas demand is expected to drop by over 50 bcm in 2022 .58largely driven by demand destruction in the

25、 industrial sector .59Asias gas demand growth grinds to a halt in 2022, followed by a modest3% recovery in 2023 .60Global Gas Security Review 2022Asias uneven gas demand recovery continues in 2022 and 2023 .62US gas output kept growing over the summer, principally supported byassociated production .

26、63US dry gas production at record daily levels since June 2022 .64Associated gas production, led by the Permian Basin, is expected to drivemost of the growth in 2023 .65Russias piped supplies to Europe fell to decade lows in Q3 2022 .66Record high LNG imports partially offset the shortfall in Russia

27、n pipedgas supplies in Q3 2022 .67Global LNG trade growth is fuelled by European demand and US supply. 68Global LNG trade growth set to continue at 5% in 2022, slowing to 4% in 2023 . 69Asian and European spot prices surged to new record highs in Q3 2022. 70TTF is expected to retain its premium over

28、 Asian spot LNG prices duringthe 2022/23 heating season .71Race against time: EU storage injections surge amid winter supplyuncertainty .72The European Union has surpassed its 80% storage target, while fill levels in the United States remained well below their five-year average atthe end of Q3 2022

29、.73Annex .74Summary table .75Regional and country groupings .76Abbreviations and acronyms .77Units of measure .77Acknowledgements, contributors and credits .78PAGE | 4IEA. All rights reserved.Gas Market Report Q4 2022Global Gas Security Review 2022Cold comfortAs the summer ends in the northern hemis

30、phere on new highs for natural gas prices and volatility, and markets brace themselves for a winter of unprecedented uncertainty of supply due to Russias behaviour, security of energy supply has become a priority issue for consumers and policy makers across major consuming markets. A complete shutdo

31、wn of Russian pipeline flows to theEuropean Union cannot be ruled out.The sharp decline in Russian gas flows to Europe and a tight power market drove European gas prices and indirectly Asian spot LNG prices to record highs in the third quarter of 2022. Meanwhile, prices in the United States reached

32、their highest summer levels since 2008. This has come with extremely high price volatility, which further increases financial pressure on market participants and the risk of defaults, limiting the number of active market participants and resulting in further volatility.The high price and tight suppl

33、y environment has led to a decline in natural gas consumption across a majority of regions. In OECD Europe, gas demand declined by close to 10% y-o-y in the period January to August, falling by an estimated 15% in industry due to production curtailments. Major Asian gas markets experienced limited t

34、o negative growth China and Japan were close to flat, and India and Korea contracted. South and Central America also recorded a decline in H1. North America was one of the few regions where demand increased, supported by demand from powergeneration and comparatively lower prices albeit at decade hig

35、hs. This forecast expects global gas demand to decline by 0.8% this year, followed by meagre 0.4% growth in 2023.Preparing for winterAgainst the backdrop of growing uncertainty and systemic supply risk for the forthcoming winter, in the early days of the summer the IEA emphasised the essential role

36、of co-ordinated action across Europe to prevent a major gas crunch. The agency put forward concrete measures to further enhance the regions resilience against the risk of a full cut-off in gas supply from Russia. The European Union and its member states have taken a range of measures and actions ove

37、r recent months to strengthen security of supply, including further diversifying supply sources, setting minimum underground storage inventory obligations, and co-ordinating seasonal demand reductions.The IEAs seasonal resilience analysis shows that gas saving measures will be crucial in Europe to m

38、inimise the call on storage in the instance that Russia entirely cuts pipeline supply this winter, and thus to maintain supply flexibility for potential late cold spells. Interregional competition in LNG procurement may create further tension, as additional European needs would put more pressure on other buyers, especially in Asia, and conversely cold spells in Northeast Asia could limit Europes access to LNGreserved.PAGE | 5IEA. All rightsGas Market Report Q4 2022Global Gas Security Review 2022Global Gas Security Review 2022