美国能源部+海上风电市场报告：2022年版（演示PPT）-50正式版.doc

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1、Offshore Wind Market Report: 2022 EditionWalter Musial, Paul Spitsen, Philipp Beiter, Patrick Duffy, Melinda Marquis, Rob Hammond, Matt ShieldsU.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY1Presentation ContentsData and MethodologyU.S. Offshore Wind DataGlobal Offshore Wind

2、DataGlobal Floating Offshore Wind Data2021 Offshore Wind Technology Trends2021 Offshore Wind Cost DataNoticewww.energy.gov/windreportU.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY2Data and MethodologyU.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY3Mul

3、tiple Data Sources Ensure Accuracy and AlignmentWith Global Research Organizations The scope covers the global fleet of projects in the pipeline through Dec. 31, 2021, and recent U.S. developments and events through May 31, 2022. Primary Source: U.S. Department of Energys (DOEs) National Renewable E

4、nergy Laboratorys (NRELs) internal offshore wind database, which is built on internal research and a wide variety of data sources, including peer-reviewed literature, press releases, industry news reports, manufacturer specification sheets, and global offshore wind project announcements.NREL has ver

5、ified and sourced data from the following publications: The 4C Offshore Wind Database (4C Offshore 2021a) Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) Renewable Energy Project Database (BNEF 2021a) 4C Offshore Vessel Database (4C Offshore 2021a) Wood Mackenzie Wind Turbine Trends (Wood Mackenzie 2021). All d

6、ollar amounts are reported in 2021 U.S. dollars, unless indicated otherwise.U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY4Project Pipeline Classification System Uses the Public U.S.Regulatory Framework to Assess Project StatusStepPhase NameStart CriteriaEnd CriteriaStarts w

7、hen a developer or regulatory agency initiates theEnds when a developer obtains control of a site (e.g., through1Planningcompetitive auction or a determination of no competitive interest in anformal site control processunsolicited lease area United States only)Starts when a developer obtains site co

8、ntrol (e.g., a lease orEnds when the developer files major permit applications (e.g., a2Site ControlConstruction and Operations Plan COP for projects in the Unitedother contract)States)Permitting =Starts when the developer files major permit applications (e.g.,Ends when regulatory entities authorize

9、 the project to proceed with3Site Control + Offtakea COP and an offtake agreement for electricity production)construction and certify its offtake agreementPathway4ApprovedStarts when a project receives regulatory approval forEnds when sponsor announces a “financial investment decision” andconstructi

10、on activities and its offtake agreementhas signed contracts for construction work packagesStarts when sponsor announces a financial investment5Financial Closedecision and has signed contracts for major construction workEnds when the project begins major construction workpackages6Under ConstructionSt

11、arts when construction is initiatedEnds when all wind turbines have been installed and the project isconnected to and generating power to a land-based electrical gridStarts when all wind turbines are installed and transmittingEnds when the project has begun a formal process to decommission7Operating

12、power to the grid; the commercial operation date (COD) marksand stops feeding power to the gridthe official transition from construction to operation8DecommissionedStarts when the project has begun the formal process toEnds when the site has been fully restored and lease payments are nodecommission

13、and stops transmitting power to the gridlonger being made9On Hold/CanceledStarts if a sponsor stops development activities, discontinuesEnds when a sponsor restarts project development activitylease payments, or abandons a prospective siteU.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWA

14、BLE ENERGY5U.S. Offshore Wind DataU.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY6U.S. Offshore Wind Industry Market as of May 31, 2022, Shows Strength in Essential Economic and Policy Areas, Indicating Accelerated Growth U.S. Offshore Wind Target set in March 2021 for 30 gig

15、awatts (GW) by 2030 with pathway to 110 GW by 2050 39,322 megawatts (MW) of policy commitments from eight eastern states 40,083 MW estimated in total project pipeline 42 MW installed 932 MW approved (Vineyard Wind and South Fork) 24 offtake agreements with 17,597 MW of offshore wind under contract 1

16、8,581 MW in advanced permitting where the developer has submitted a COP and has a clear path to a power offtake agreement 2 floating projects: Aqua Ventus 1 and Shell/Atkins/Ocergy.U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGYNREL| 772022 Breakdown of U.S. Project Pipeline

17、Shows More Than20 GW Are in Permitting and Nearing Approval The U.S. offshore wind pipeline grew to a capacity of 40,083MW.The pipeline grew by 13.5% over the 35,324 MW reported in 2021.Expansion was driven by theBureau of Ocean EnergyManagements (BOEMs) newleasing activityEight new lease areas auct

18、ionedin the AtlanticTwo new wind energy areas(WEAs) in California (DOI 2021)Three existing WEAs werereclassified as “dormant.”U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY8U.S. Project Pipeline by State Indicates That New York,Massachusetts and New Jersey Have the Majority

19、of Capacity State capacity for “sitecontrol” and “planning”(hashed bars) areassigned to the statewhere the wind energyarea is located.State capacity for“permitting” and moreadvanced classificationcategories are based onwhere the energy will bedelivered (offtakeagreement).* Capacity for “Permitting”

20、and “Site Control” categories are assigned to the state where the WEA is geographically located. All other categories are assigned to the state where the power will be delivered.U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY9U.S. North Atlantic and Great Lakes Offshore Wind

21、Energy Activity as of May 31, 2022, Illustrates Large-Scale Development Is UnderwayU.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY10South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Pacific Offshore Wind Activity as of May 31, 2022, Illustrates Strong Development Potential From Early-Stage

22、 LeasingSouth Atlantic and Gulf of MexicoPacific Coast and HawaiiU.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY11Industry Forecasts Estimate U.S. Offshore Wind MarketWill Deploy Between 26 GW and 32 GW by 20302021 4C Offshore and Bloomberg NewEnergy Finance (BNEF) provideind

23、ependent forecasts of U.S. offshorewind deployment out to 2031.Forecasts estimate that the U.S.offshore wind market will cumulativelyreach 26 GW and 32 GW by 2030.The U.S. target set by the Biden-HarrisAdministration is 30 GW by 2030.Forecasts are line with theadministrations target.U.S. DEPARTMENT

24、OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY12BOEM Announced the “Offshore Wind Leasing Path Forward 20212025” in October 2021, Which Calls for up to Seven New Lease Auctions U.S. Department of the Interior Secretary Deb Harland announced a near-term leasing plan in October 2021. BOEM has

25、 the authority to carry out up to seven lease auctions by 2025. Five of the planned auctions may have floating offshore wind lease areas. Lease auctions include New York Bight (February 2022), Carolina Long Bay (May 2022), California (late 2022), Gulf of Mexico (early 2023), Central Atlantic (mid 20

26、23), Oregon (late 2023), and Gulf of Maine (mid 2024).(BOEM 2022)U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY13New York Bight Leasing Auction in February 2022Yielded $4.37 Billion in Lease RevenueLeasePurchaserDeveloperAreaCapacityPriceNumber(km2)(MW)OCS-A 0544Mid-Atlantic

27、 Offshore Wind LLCCIP174523$285,000,000OCS-A 0537OW Ocean Winds East LLCEDPR and Engie289868$765,000,000OCS-A 0538Attentive Energy LLCTotal Energies321964$795,000,000OCS-A 0539Bight Wind Holdings LLCRWE and National4621,387$1,100,000,000GridOCS-A 0541Atlantic Shores Offshore WindShell and EDF308924$

28、780,000,000Bight LLCOCS-A 0542Invenergy Wind Offshore WindInvenergy and311934$645,000,000LCCEnergyRE New York Bight lease auction was held in February 2022 Lease sales totaled $4.37 billionrecord-setting for BOEM and for U.S. offshore wind Sales added more than 5,600 MW in capacity to the pipeline W

29、inning bidders added new players to the U.S. market, including Total Energies, RWE, Invenergy, and EnergyRE.U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY14Carolina Long Bay Wind Energy Area Leases Sold for $315 Millionthe First BOEM Offshore Wind Auction With Multi-Factor B

30、idding Carolina Long Bay lease auction was held in May 2022. Lease sales totaled $315 million. Leases added more than 1,337 MW in capacity to the pipeline. Winning bidders added Duke Energies Renewable Wind LLC to the new developers in the U.S. market. This was the first BOEM offshore wind auction t

31、o use multi-factor bidding, which allows some of the lease revenue to benefit the states.Lease NumberPurchaserArea (km2)Capacity (MW)PriceOCS-A 0545Total Energies222667$160,000,000Renewables USALLCOCS-A 0546Duke Energies223670$155,000,000Renewable WindLLCU.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFF

32、ICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY15U.S. Offshore Wind Lease Prices Have Grown Logarithmically, With Significantly Higher Lease Prices in States With Strong Procurement PoliciesPlot shows lease pricesper square kilometer(km2) by state over thepast 10 years.Auction prices haveincreased logarithmicallyover ti

33、me since 2013.States with strongprocurement policies anddeployment mandatesshow much higher leaseprices.U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY16Five Lease Areas in Humboldt and Morro Bay Wind Energy Areas Off California Coast Are Scheduled for Auction in Late 2022 Ca

34、lifornia lease auctions are planned for late 2022. Morro Bay (3 lease areas) and Humboldt (2 lease areas) Wind Energy Areas will be auctioned in a multi-factor auction. Proposed sale notice was issued May 2022. The five lease areas have an estimated development capacity of more than 4.6 GW. Developm

35、ent capacity could be as high as 7.5 GW based on industry norms for array density.Humboldt WEACaliforniaMorro Bay WEAU.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY17Gulf of Mexico Draft Wind Energy Areas Announced July 20, 2022 A regional intergovernmental task force includi

36、ng LA, AL, MS, and TX was formed in 2021. A 30-million-acre Call Area was announced in October 2021. In February 2022, the Louisiana Climate Action Plan recommended a procurement goal of 5 GW by 2035. There are strong synergies with oil and gas infrastructure and hydrogen production. On July 20, 202

37、2, the U.S. Department of the Interior announced two draft Gulf of Mexico WEAs. Gulf of Mexico lease auction isplanned for 2023.Gulf of Mexico Draft Wind Energy Areas Announced July 20, 2022U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY18Two Call Areas Were Announced Off Ore

38、gon Coast in April 2022 An Oregon Intergovernmental Task Force was formed in 2011. In September 2021, Oregon passed HB 3375, setting a goal for up to 3 GW of offshore wind by 2030. Two Call Areas were announced April 27, 2022, in southern Oregon: Coos Bay Call Area (1,364 square miles) Brookings Cal

39、l Area (448 square miles). Oregon lease actions reflect a strong industry push for the development of floating offshore wind technology.Coos Bay Call AreaOregonBrookings Call AreaOregon Call AreasU.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY19Six New Call Areas Were Announc

40、ed in the Central Atlantic on April 27, 2022 Four Call Areas are in water depths suited for fixed-bottom technology and two are in ultra-deep water of about 2,600 meters (m). Less than 60-m depth: Call Area A: 952 km2 Call Area B: 2,639 km2 Call Area C: 744 km2 Call Area D: 1,791 km2. Deep Call Area

41、s: Call Area E: Depth to 2,500-m and 2,600-m bathymetric contour; 6,556 km2 Call Area F: Depth to 2,600-m bathymetric contour; 3,090 km2.Central Atlantic Call AreasU.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYOFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY20U.S. State Offshore Wind Procurement PoliciesTotal 17,597 MW as of May 31, 2022StateOffshoreGoalAmountAuthoritiesYearTargetYearProcuredImplemented(MW)(MW)Maine-12NoneOhio-21NoneMassachusetts5,60020353,236An Act to Promote E