仲量联行2022年第三季度北京房地产市场回顾报告.doc

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1、北京房地产市场回顾Beijing Property Market Review2022年第三季度2022Q3办公楼市场回顾Office Market Review2022年第三季度市场更新Market Updates: 3Q22新增供应净吸纳量New SupplyNet Absorption014,381平方米平方米sqmsqm租金空置率RentVacancy RateCNY 3279.7%平方米/月sqm/month来源：仲量联行，2022年第三季度 全市租赁市场在后半个季度归于平静，第三季度净吸纳量出现明显下降，比二季度减少70%。As the leasing market cooled

2、down in the second half of 3Q22, the quarterly net absorption saw a notable decline, recording a 70% q-o-q change. 以大型企业为代表的租户倾向于做出更为谨慎的租赁决策。第三季度，2,000平以下的成交数量占总成交数的83%。Tenants, especially some large-scale companies, tended to become more cautious about making leasing decisions. In the third quarter

3、, deals under 2,000 sqm accounted for 83% of total transactions in terms of amount. 整体租金持续呈小幅下降，环比降低0.4个百分点。全市九个子市场中有七个录得租金负增长。The downward trend in overall rents continued, with a rent growth of -0.4% q-o-q. Seven out of the total nine submarkets across the city reported negative rent growth. 尽管全市需

4、求活跃度降低，但部分近期入市项目空置面积在第三季度得到去化，全市空置率小幅下降至9.7%，环比降幅0.1个百分点。Despite weakening demand across the city, recent completions in the CBD Core Area continued to fill up, slowing the downward trend of vacancy rates with a slide of only 0.1 ppts to 9.7%.3中关村与金融街区域市场压力存续Market pressure in Zhongguancun and Finan

5、ce Street areas continued in 3Q22中关村Zhongguancun在线教育及TMT巨头退租Space surrendered from onlineeducation firms and TMT giants金融街Finance Street原有租户外迁Relocation of existing tenants在过去多年，金融街与中关村一直作为全市最火热的子市场，供不应求的状态下有时租户甚至一房难求，新释放的空置面积往往能在1-2个月内得到快速去化。In the past few years, Finance Street and Zhongguancun su

6、bmarkets have consistently been tight and hot in the city. In this state of short supply, it is hard for tenants to find suitable leasing space, while the newly released vacancies were usually backfilled quickly, within 1-2 months.然而近半年以来，该两个区域内空置面积去化速度明显放缓，空置压力存续。为了吸引租户，业主的租赁策略变得更加灵活，包括提供租金优惠或更长的免租

7、期。However, in the past six months, the destocking pace of vacancies in these two submarkets has significantly slowed down, leaving the landlords with heavy vacancy pressure. To attract tenants, landlords have become more flexible in their leasing strategies, including offering rent concessions or lo

8、nger rent-free periods.来源：仲量联行，2022年第三季度4未来5年全市仍将迎来一批优质办公楼项目入市High-quality future supply across the city is expected in the next five years未来全市甲级与非甲级办公楼供应地图（含规划地块）Map of future office supply across the city (including planned plots)望京奥林匹克地区中关村68石景山4第三使馆区东二环路5金融街129东长安街CBD丽泽亦庄通州甲级办公楼Grade A projects非

9、甲级办公楼Non-Grade A projects未来5年，全市范围内将拥有近80万平方米甲级办公楼项目入市，除此之外仍将迎来充足的非甲级项目投入使用，为租户提供优质的面积选择。In the next five years, there will be nearly 800,000 sqm Grade A office space entering the market. In addition, there will be sufficient non-Grade A projects in the future, providing tenants with high-quality sp

10、ace options.在当前的大环境下，“降本”成为一些企业租赁决策过程中的主要考量因素。非甲级新项目可以提供连续整层面积且拥有价格优势，预计将吸引部分价格敏感型的租户。become the main consideration in the leasing decision-making process for some companies. New Non-Grade A projects can provide continuous whole-floor areas with a price advantage, which is expected to attract some p

11、rice-sensitive tenants.来源：仲量联行，2022年第三季度北京甲级办公楼市场进入均衡偏租户市场Beijing office market was in the stage of shifting from tenant-favourable to neutral自2022年初，全市甲级项目租金变化：Rent changes of Grade A projects since the beginning of 2022:9%上升 Increase34%下降 Decrease57%维稳 Stability*百分比代表在全市甲级项目数量中的占比Percentage repres

12、ents the proportion of all Grade A projects遭遇疫情打击，市场租赁需求并未完全复苏，业主方谈判弹性较大。Landlords provided flexible leasing strategies, given that market demand had not completely recovered after the outbreak of Covid-19.年初多个项目上调租金，但因五月市场停滞，租金增长幅度低于预期。当前阶段租金录得小幅下跌。Many projects raised rents at the beginning of 202

13、2, but current rent growth was lower than expected as the market stagnated in May. The overall rent recorded a slight drop in the quarter.2022前三个季度净吸纳量约22万平方米，不及2021年平均单季度净吸纳量。The net absorption of first three quarters in 2022 recorded approximately 220,000 sqm, which was less than the average quart

14、erly net absorption in 2021.全市单季度净吸纳量平方米Overall Net Absorption per Quartersqm3Q214Q211Q222Q223Q22 净吸纳量 Net Absorption 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.持续升温的产业园物业之投管逻辑Investment & Operation Rationale for Business Parks产业园区投资调查问卷Investor survey regarding business park properties仲量联

15、行在近期邀请在中国大陆商业地产市场上最为活跃的投资机构参与调研Active investment institutions in Chinas commercialreal estate market were invited to participate in the survey60%85%内资受访机构为保险公司外资受访机构为房地产基金公司 2022 仲量联行，保留所有权利。8城市能级：超七成投资人仅关注一线城市及其周边的产业园物业Over 70% of investors seek business park opportunities on in tier-1 cities and s

16、urrounding area区位区位优势底层资产博时蛇口产园深圳市南山区前海蛇口互联网及电子商务产业万融大厦、万海大厦REITs自贸区基地，交通路网发达华安张江光大上海自由贸易试验区国家级高科技产业园区，张江光大园园区REITs江高科技园核心地带东吴苏园产园位于长三角中心腹地，国际科技园B区项目、苏州工业园区苏州工业园2.5产业园一REITs交通网络发达期、二期建信中关村产国家级高科技产业园区，互联网创新中心5号楼、北京中关村科技园协同中心4号楼以及孵园REITs产业聚集，配套成熟化加速器 一线或强二线城市的战略地位及拥有稀缺的要素市场，多数行业的顶层产业资源集中 良好的产业布局及产业基础，

17、能够为产业园带来有效的产业聚集效应 产业园的区位价值大于物业本身的商业运营逻辑 2022 仲量联行，保留所有权利。9政策支持：减税、补贴等直接财政支持对投资人最具吸引力Policy support: direct financial support such as tax cuts and subsidies is the most attractive产业园区的发展十分依赖于政府支持所形成的外生驱动： 财政支持形成宽松的投资环境，吸引企业与资金流入 产业引导形成完善生态圈，促进产业链不同环节规模企业良性互动，共生共赢。政府提供便捷高效的综合服务平台29%政府具备完善的产业招商政策体系71%政

18、府在人才引进制度上的加强落实24%政府在产业引导措施上的落实，引导、参与合作投资76%政府在土地政策上对产业园区的支持力度65%政府直接对企业进行减税或提供补贴等财政支持88%0%20%40%60%80%100% 2022 仲量联行，保留所有权利。10运营能力：投资人吸引入驻企业达成产业协作，或为最优模式Operation capability: investors collaborate with enterprises to achieve synergy初期产业定位及后期把控主动提升运营能力为产业提供针对性服务 2022 仲量联行，保留所有权利。11“亦庄制造”：不破不立，全产业链发展基

19、调向好，租金逆势增长Industry chain remains strong, and rents are expected to grow amid market challenges亦庄产业园子市场覆盖453万平方米的产业园项目，占据北京市场整体存量近30%，释放供应充沛，承载产业跃迁四类支柱产业主导租赁，2020年后吸引降本需求“专精特新”中小企业有562家落户亦庄，亦庄或将在中长期迎来租金增长契机 2022 仲量联行，保留所有权利。12雄安新区五周年实录The 5th anniversary ofNew Area雄安新区：从“一张白纸”到“塔吊林立”1,7702,360万1103,7

20、00+平方公里平方米家家雄安新区规划累计开工新建央企已设分支北京投资来源面积建筑面积机构企业注册 2022 仲量联行，保留所有权利。14 2022 仲量联行，保留所有权利。15中国的第三代城市样板，京津冀的齿轮城市世界标准的“未来城市”样板京津冀地区协同发展布局相融合高起点布局高端高新产业 2022 仲量联行，保留所有权利。重塑北京定位的新引擎新一代信息技术现代生命科学和生物技术新材料高端现代服务业绿色生态农业16北京“十四五”期间城市更新政策解读Interpretation of urban renewal policies duringth Five-中心城区城市更新潜力巨大，丰富存量可用

21、于商业地产改造Beijing has large potential for urban renewal, with abundant stock for renewal on commercial real estate全市更新体量巨大北京全市可更新建筑约2.45亿平方米，其中1.66亿平方米位于城六区。There is a total of 245 million sqm of existing urban renewal stock with 166 million sqm in core and extended areas for urban functions.可观体量适用于商业地

22、产改造东三环、酒仙桥望京、亚奥和中关村等区域的老旧楼宇集聚程度较高，该地区为未来办公楼市场提供丰富可更新存量。East Third Ring, Jiuxianqiao and Wanjing, and Zhongguancun areas have abundant old and outdated buildings, and are expected to provide new supply for the Urban office market.图：北京城市更新及首都功能核心区规划示意图 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reser

23、ved.首次提出土地租赁的配置方案，研究土地使用年限延长的可能方案Commercial land leasing was proposed for the first time, with an implementation plan under study城市更新政策原文：“深入实践土地年租金制，支持存量土地转让、出租、抵押盘活利用，重点结合土地产权确认、产权出让和变更等需求，研究土地合并、置换、拆分、使用年限延长或重置等政策。”2022年5月北京市城市更新专项规划（北京市“十四五”时期城市更新规划）土地租赁方案的提出2021 年 6 月政策提出了土地租赁的概念并在此后的政策中明确了土地租赁

24、的具体实施方案。The policy in June 2021 proposed the concept of commercial land leasing for the first time, and was reaffirmed as an implementation plan in later policies.土地租赁的方式北京市鼓励采取租赁的方式配置建设用地使用权，租赁期满后可续租，并提出先租后让的配置方式。The government encouraged commercial land leasing. Upon fulfilling the lease length, l

25、eases can be renewed according to policies.土地租赁的意义土地使用年限到期成为目前商业地产市场投资人关心的核心问题，土地租赁政策提出了一种解决土地使用年限延长的可能性。The ownership of land with limited lease terms has been a core problem for investors. The policy provided a potential solution for this issue. 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved

26、.允许建筑用途转换，为各类物业改造成办公提供清晰政策途径The functional classification of buildings can be converted, providing clear policy for conversion projects城市更新政策原文：“为完善城市功能和补齐城市短板，允许存量建筑用途转换。建筑用途转换经批准后，土地用途可兼容或变更。市规划自然资源管理部门应当制定具体规则，明确用途转换和兼容使用的正负面清单允许商业服务业类建筑用途相互转换。”2022年6月北京市城市更新条例（草案）明确的政策支持此次首次为商业服务业类建筑用途相互转换提供了政策支

27、持， 不同于2018年开始政策上的严格限制“商改办”改造的选择和空间。since2018. The new policy allows conversions between building functions.清晰的政策途径过往成功改造经验依托特殊政策，推广复制的局限性大，新推出的城市更新政策为各类物业改造成办公项目提供了清晰政策途径。Previous conversion projects benefitted from special policies. Thenew policies provide clear guidelines for conversion projects i

28、n thefuture.减量发展仍为未来方向这并不代表全市层面全面的增量放开，北京仍将坚持减量发展。政策阶段的演化意味着市场中将有更多盘活现有低效资产的机会，迎来更多高品质项目。The new policies that allow function conversions mean that themarket will have more assets that offer opportunities to berenovated. New supply is still tight in Beijing. 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All righ

29、ts reserved.城市更新审批权限下放至区级政府Urban renewal projects are approved by district governments更简化的审批流程城市更新项目的审批和监管权限下放将显著地缩短审批流程，在一定程度上降低了项目的审批难度，提升改造类物业的投资吸引力。The approval and supervision of renewal projects are assigned to the district government. This act will lower the difficulties of seeking approval,

30、and is expected to grow investor interest in conversion projects.区级政府可有效推动区内更新改造区政府更熟悉区域内的老旧物业等存量资源，更了解各片区的产业需求，规划更新项目的优先级，将提升城市更新改造主体的改造意愿。District governments are more familiar with old and outdated buildings within their district, are expected to accelerate the urban renewal progress in their res

31、pective areas and are able to better arrange and prioritise its urban renewal projects according to development needs.城市更新政策原文：“更新项目的审查流程可下放至各区级部门办理，进一步简化审批流程，压缩审批时间，实行并联审批、限时办结，提高审批效率，也可依托多规合一平台有序推进存量地区有机更新。”2022年5月北京市城市更新专项规划（北京市“十四五”时期城市更新规划）“区人民政府（含北京经济技术开发区管委会，下同）负责统筹推进、组织协调和监督管理本辖区城市更新工作。区人民政府

32、应当明确本区城市更新主管部门。区级职能部门应当按照职能分工推进实施城市更新工作。”2022年6月北京市城市更新条例（草案） 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.政策对办公和商业领域分别做出明确发展和更新规划Policy provides clear focus and direction on urban renewal for regions with business and commercial environments办公为主区域更新政策对于办公物业为主的各区域做出明确城市更新专注方向和重点围绕的功能业态。Polic

33、y provides clear direction on urban renewal work for regions that focus on strong business environments.商业更新鼓励更新项目利用地下空间，当前很多老旧商业项目面临大量地下空间的盘活和利用。In terms of retail development, the policy encourages renovation of underground space in many outdated retail projects.城市更新政策原文：城市更新政策原文：“促进金融街、东长安街、东二环提升

34、金融业核心竞“发展首店经济、夜间经济，承办国际消费节事，扩大入境消费，提升国际化服务水平。鼓励商业向周边纵深争力，增强服务国家金融管理中心功能推进中关空间延伸，通过合理设置外摆、策划分时步行街、精细村分散业权楼宇升级改造。推进CBD数字贸易、设计广告牌匾、灯光照明、艺术雕塑等形式，提升街区国际金融、高端商务服务产业发展推进望京、活力。鼓励利用疏解腾退空间、地下空间补充社区商业酒仙桥、奥体中心区信息技术、新媒体、专业服务短板，提升社区商业的均好性和服务水平。优化商圈步产业发展。”2022年5月北京市城市更新行环境，合理组织SKP、三里屯等商圈的通道和人流动专项规划（北京市“十四五”时期城市更新规划）线。”2022年5月北京市城市更新专项规划（北京市“十四五”时期城市更新规划） 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.如有任何问题，欢迎随时23